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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

he seems to be quite capable with drones, I wonder why this guy isn't "defending" Russia in the trenches in Ukraine

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bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Funny how the tankies went from banging drums and shouting about how the Slovakian assassination being evil CIA or ukrainian plot into instantly memory holing the event when it became apparent that it was more of a friendly fire between Moscow bootlickers.

Tarquinn
Jul 3, 2007


I know I’ve made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you
my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal.
Hell Gem

ContinuityNewTimes posted:

Like firing v-weapons at Belgorod while your army retreats?

I still dgaf.

Computer viking
May 30, 2011
Now with less breakage.

AnacondaHL posted:

I fully understand and agree, and recognize the difference between long-term, short-term, and trigger mechanisms to how wars start.

Oil and gas happened to be the unexpected and sudden trigger mechanism for Ukraine. Obviously anything else can be a trigger for the baltics.

Or it was Euromaidan and their clear desire to orient towards the west. Or Putin felt old and worried about his legacy. Do you have any particular reason to believe it was triggered specifically by the discovery of another gas field?

Sedgr
Sep 16, 2007

Neat!

Putin is a real piece of poo poo.

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

ContinuityNewTimes posted:

Like firing v-weapons at Belgorod while your army retreats?

Empty gestures is when Ukraine fires missiles at Russian cities. Praxis is when Russia fires missiles at Ukrainian cities. I am very smart.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

ContinuityNewTimes posted:

Like firing v-weapons at Belgorod while your army retreats?

Why do you love imperialism so much?

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

Kchama posted:

Why do you love imperialism so much?

Imperialism and colonialism is when boat. Russia doesn't have a black sea fleet anymore, so it can't be imperialism.

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь

Kchama posted:

Why do you love imperialism so much?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

TM edit Removed personal attack

Somebody fucked around with this message at 20:34 on May 17, 2024

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.
Both of you stop this poo poo

Also do you have proof of your claim Continuity because if not id retract that real quick

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Both of you stop this poo poo

Also do you have proof of your claim Continuity because if not id retract that real quick

Are you totally unaware of common idiomatic English?

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Both of you stop this poo poo

Also do you have proof of your claim Continuity because if not id retract that real quick

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loaded_question


quote:

Such questions may be used as a rhetorical tool: the question attempts to limit direct replies to be those that serve the questioner's agenda.[2] The traditional example is the question "Have you stopped beating your wife?"


Come on, now

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.
Truthfully I don't give a poo poo because this is all off topic anyway so get back on track :thanks:

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k
I feel like the question of "does they do it for glorious empire or does they do it for oil" is irrelevant because the reason they're invading is they can try to do both and make both types of psychos happy. The question of motive is really only going to come into play when they're discussing when to go home.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Are you gonna retract that claim still?

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Both of you stop this poo poo

I'll apologize to you.

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

Computer viking posted:

Or it was Euromaidan and their clear desire to orient towards the west. Or Putin felt old and worried about his legacy. Do you have any particular reason to believe it was triggered specifically by the discovery of another gas field?

Right, those things are the long term and short term causes.

As for the trigger, aside from of course the timing making sense, it's a common model of modern state conflict at this point. Some estimate a quarter to a half of all inter-state wars have been over oil since 1973. Note this was written in 2013, and a bunch of their notes in the "watch out for unexpected sources of conflict" section such as shipping lanes, pipelines, and petro-aggression have all manifested since then.

Obviously pointing at the Middle East is way too easy, so a cleaner example of how these long term and short term issues can combine with a sudden oil discovery that becomes a trigger is the current Venezuela/Guyana border dispute. A long history of baggage, a sudden discovery of oil in the Guyana exclusive economic zone, and Venezuela wants the milkshake. It's so obvious, that the relationship in the timeline is baked directly into the wikipedia page of the conflict.

For Russia/Ukraine, it is slightly indirect, instead being in the general prewar information here. But there were short term causes too, and the entire list of recent disputes over natural gas is listed here.

The timelines align flush on each other, and fit the same structure.


edit: I feel I should mention that both the Shell and Cheveron agreements with Ukraine were ready to go in 2013, so yea, timeline.

AnacondaHL fucked around with this message at 20:57 on May 17, 2024

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
Seth, can you edit that out? That's a real lovely thing to have been said about someone

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Yeah I got it

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Tai posted:

Seth, can you edit that out? That's a real lovely thing to have been said about someone

Lol at being so illiterate you would consider an archetypal example of a loaded question to be an actual accusation.

Detective Thompson
Nov 9, 2007

Sammy Davis Jr. Jr. is also in repose.
Yeah, they weren't actually accusing them of that.

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
You do understand that you're assuming everyone who reads it understands its meaning right?

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

lol

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 37 hours!)

Tai posted:

You do understand that you're assuming everyone who reads it understands its meaning right?

Was it about assaulting your partner? It's a typical response to being asked a loaded question, to mock the question

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Rust Martialis posted:

Was it about assaulting your partner? It's a typical response to being asked a loaded question, to mock the question

Mine was a genuine response to him defending Russia with every post. After all, that must mean he loves imperialism if he's gonna defend it.

In other words, I was giving his post all the respect it deserved: None.

tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots
It's a fairly commonly understood idiom and CNT was threadshitting and I'm glad they're probed. :siren: PULL UP


AnacondaHL posted:

Right, those things are the long term and short term causes.

As for the trigger, aside from of course the timing making sense, it's a common model of modern state conflict at this point. Some estimate a quarter to a half of all inter-state wars have been over oil since 1973. Note this was written in 2013, and a bunch of their notes in the "watch out for unexpected sources of conflict" section such as shipping lanes, pipelines, and petro-aggression have all manifested since then.

Obviously pointing at the Middle East is way too easy, so a cleaner example of how these long term and short term issues can combine with a sudden oil discovery that becomes a trigger is the current Venezuela/Guyana border dispute. A long history of baggage, a sudden discovery of oil in the Guyana exclusive economic zone, and Venezuela wants the milkshake. It's so obvious, that the relationship in the timeline is baked directly into the wikipedia page of the conflict.

For Russia/Ukraine, it is slightly indirect, instead being in the general prewar information here. But there were short term causes too, and the entire list of recent disputes over natural gas is listed here.

The timelines align flush on each other, and fit the same structure.


edit: I feel I should mention that both the Shell and Cheveron agreements with Ukraine were ready to go in 2013, so yea, timeline.

Maybe we can agree on "contributing factor", there are surely quite a few. I thought this all started with talking about why Ukraine would be hardline unwilling to let go of those territories absent a total military defeat rather than "this is THE reason the war is happening", to which the same can apply - I'm sure "our prewar citizens being murdered/forcibly relocated" has a big impact on whatever calculus is going on too.

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Here's a nice palette cleanser

https://x.com/KyryliukRoma/status/1791553863859785799

This some of where all that BIG GOVERNMENT ARMS DEFENSE CONTRACTOR money is going - straight into Raytheon's pockets!!

And one of the reasons Russia got turned into ground beef and their offensive sputtered out

https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1791393222272373227

Sweaty IT Nerd
Jul 13, 2007

Sedgr posted:

Putin is a real piece of poo poo.

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Wildfires on Russian positions? Mother Global Warming lends a hand :dukedog:

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Strategic Tea posted:

Wildfires on Russian positions? Mother Global Warming lends a hand :dukedog:

Pay no attention to the smoking accidents behind the curtain.

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

tiaz posted:

It's a fairly commonly understood idiom and CNT was threadshitting and I'm glad they're probed. :siren: PULL UP

Maybe we can agree on "contributing factor", there are surely quite a few. I thought this all started with talking about why Ukraine would be hardline unwilling to let go of those territories absent a total military defeat rather than "this is THE reason the war is happening", to which the same can apply - I'm sure "our prewar citizens being murdered/forcibly relocated" has a big impact on whatever calculus is going on too.

I'm AOK with the term contributing factor.

I'll also issue a self correction: I had the events of Euromaidan and the oil and gas discoveries reversed in my mind, but as it turns out Euromaidan was also a result of the discoveries, with the EU trying to ensure a good trade agreement with Ukraine over grain and gas exports, among all the other things.

So all that foundation leads to what an acceptable end to the war would look like for Ukraine, and by extension, the EU and the USA. Donetsk and Luhansk are non-negotiable because they all want the gas.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1791719057378484244

quote:

🇺🇦👀 "Ukraine is against any truce that plays into the hands of the enemy", — Zelensky on the Olympic truce.

Interview with AFP:
▪️Air defence is critically lacking (25% of the need);
▪️Ukraine needs 120-130 modern F-16 combat aircraft;
The Russians want to attack Kharkiv, but they understand that it is difficult;
▪️The offensive in Kharkiv region may be the first wave of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces. The situation in the region is under control, but not stabilized. The Russians began the operation in several waves;
▪️The Russians do not yet have the strength for a large-scale offensive on Kyiv.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018
Women are wonderful animals, they should be making music and writing novels about having a complex relationship with your mother.

poor waif posted:

Empty gestures is when Ukraine fires missiles at Russian cities. Praxis is when Russia fires missiles at Ukrainian cities. I am very smart.

They aren’t exactly equal, Russia is advancing and Ukraine is being pushed back. Like, I remember people celebrating Ukraine’s strikes on Belgorod, but the Russians were able to respond by marching like 50 miles into Ukraine, facing very little resistance most of the way, just to be like “hey knock it off”

Avirosb
Nov 21, 2016

Everyone makes pisstakes

Gripweed posted:

They aren’t exactly equal, Russia is advancing and Ukraine is being pushed back. Like, I remember people celebrating Ukraine’s strikes on Belgorod, but the Russians were able to respond by marching like 50 miles into Ukraine, facing very little resistance most of the way, just to be like “hey knock it off”

Maybe Russia should knock it off?
They started it.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Wait are you saying that Russia chucking missiles at malls and hospitals and parks was in service of a military advance?

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018
Women are wonderful animals, they should be making music and writing novels about having a complex relationship with your mother.

Subjunctive posted:

Wait are you saying that Russia chucking missiles at malls and hospitals and parks was in service of a military advance?

No, for both sides the idea is to reduce civilian willingness to support the war. I don’t think that has ever worked, but army guys keep doing it. But it certainly seems less likely to work on the side that’s actively winning. And it seems like maybe not a great use of munitions when you’re losing and desperately need munitions.

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Gripweed posted:

They aren’t exactly equal, Russia is advancing and Ukraine is being pushed back. Like, I remember people celebrating Ukraine’s strikes on Belgorod, but the Russians were able to respond by marching like 50 miles into Ukraine, facing very little resistance most of the way, just to be like “hey knock it off”

If Ukraine hadn't struck Belgorod, the latest advance would never have occurred.

The three day march on Kyiv was actually a time travelling strike force retaliating for this shameful western aggression

Tai
Mar 8, 2006

Gripweed posted:

They aren’t exactly equal, Russia is advancing and Ukraine is being pushed back. Like, I remember people celebrating Ukraine’s strikes on Belgorod, but the Russians were able to respond by marching like 50 miles into Ukraine, facing very little resistance most of the way, just to be like “hey knock it off”

lmao dumb rear end. You know the Belgorod area stuff is from the Russian Freedom Legion right? They are Russians who hate Putin. They've been loving around in that area for ages and post regular videos. Also Russia hasn't advanced 50 miles. More like 3 miles aka the grey zone.

Mulva
Sep 13, 2011
It's about time for my once per decade ban for being a consistently terrible poster.

Gripweed posted:

No, for both sides the idea is to reduce civilian willingness to support the war. I don’t think that has ever worked, but army guys keep doing it. But it certainly seems less likely to work on the side that’s actively winning. And it seems like maybe not a great use of munitions when you’re losing and desperately need munitions.

For a guy that says he doesn't read news and just browses the thread you sure seem to bring up specific figures that nobody in any thread talked about a lot. So what are your sources again? Because nobody, including the Russians, is talking about them advancing much in this last push.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018
Women are wonderful animals, they should be making music and writing novels about having a complex relationship with your mother.

Tai posted:

lmao dumb rear end. You know the Belgorod area stuff is from the Russian Freedom Legion right? They are Russians who hate Putin. They've been loving around in that area for ages and post regular videos. Also Russia hasn't advanced 50 miles. More like 3 miles aka the grey zone.

Is the BBC spreading tankie disinformation again?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68998913.amp

quote:

The Belgorod region has often been targeted by Ukrainian forces since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Mulva posted:

For a guy that says he doesn't read news and just browses the thread you sure seem to bring up specific figures that nobody in any thread talked about a lot. So what are your sources again? Because nobody, including the Russians, is talking about them advancing much in this last push.

I didn’t know the actual distance so I just pulled a number out of the air

Gripweed fucked around with this message at 15:58 on May 18, 2024

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Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Gripweed posted:

They aren’t exactly equal, Russia is advancing and Ukraine is being pushed back. Like, I remember people celebrating Ukraine’s strikes on Belgorod, but the Russians were able to respond by marching like 50 miles into Ukraine, facing very little resistance most of the way, just to be like “hey knock it off”

50 miles?

Gripweed posted:

I didn’t know the actual distance so I just pulled a number out of the air

lol yeah you did

Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 16:01 on May 18, 2024

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