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Harry Potter on Ice posted:Why do people keep parroting the 2% death rate in their calculations when that is for people that are in ICU? I wish they'd use the more correct 10-20%, I'm curious if that changes their outlook Wait, what? How am I gonna kill 20% of a given population?
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Mar 25, 2020 04:54
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enraged_camel posted:All we know is that this is an unprecedented event -- a black swan, if you will. Never before in modern history have large portions of the US economy shut down completely, while others were forced to completely change the way they do business without advance notice, while laying off as many people as necessary. Unemployment numbers are already skyrocketing -- there's a reason Trump essentially begged states to delay releasing those numbers. They are bad. Trump is going to want people under a certain age to go back to work. I'm surprised he hasn't been breaking out visual aids on mortality by age yet. If you're a young worker with kids to feed, it's going to be a popular request. Poverty brings drug addiction, depression/suicide, and crime. No, thanks. Send people back to work as soon as possible. Harry Potter on Ice posted:Why do people keep parroting the 2% death rate in their calculations when that is for people that are in ICU? I wish they'd use the more correct 10-20%, I'm curious if that changes their outlook I assume this is a typo, because that isn't true.
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Mar 25, 2020 04:59
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LLCoolJD posted:I assume this is a typo, because that isn't true. No, it is true for people who dont receive hospital care, which is going to be everywhere. Look at Atlanta for instance. Does a 10-20% death rate for those who are unable to get an ICU bed change the discussion? Harry Potter on Ice fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 05:02
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LLCoolJD posted:Trump is going to want people under a certain age to go back to work. I'm surprised he hasn't been breaking out visual aids on mortality by age yet. If you're a young worker with kids to feed, it's going to be a popular request. Poverty brings drug addiction, depression/suicide, and crime. No, thanks. Send people back to work as soon as possible. This doesn't work. The problem is that you're focusing too much on "mortality by age". That's misleading. The risk comes from not enough hospital capacity and equipment. When you don't have enough ICU beds, you need to start triaging, and that means people start dying when they otherwise would have lived. That is the reason every healthcare expert is panicking: not because the virus itself is exceptionally deadly, but because it results in way too many hospitalizations and we have no way of handling them, even if we made it so that only half the people got it. In addition -- do you really think that those over, say, 50 years old, would be okay with staying at home while young people went to work? Older people are already super paranoid about losing their jobs to younger people who are hard-working and ambitious. There's no way in hell they'll be convinced to sit on their asses.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:06
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:No, it is true for people who dont receive hospital care, which is going to be everywhere. Look at Atlanta for instance. Does a 10-20% death rate for those who are unable to get an ICU bed change the discussion? I still think you got the wrong numbers. Do you mean for people over a certain age? It looks like there are several countries where this was handled well (at least after a while of stupidity) and things are actually getting better in poo poo government countries like China. There is no reason that can't happen in the USA by the end of summer.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:07
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LLCoolJD posted:Poverty brings drug addiction, depression/suicide, and crime. No, thanks. Send people back to work as soon as possible. What?
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Mar 25, 2020 05:07
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LLCoolJD posted:I assume this is a typo, because that isn't true. what do you think will happen to the 15% of infected people who need hospitalization when the hospitals are overflowing? why do ya'll think the UK chickened the gently caress out on their Herd Immunity plan last week when they saw the hospitalization rate? AngryBooch fucked around with this message at 05:12 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 05:08
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coronavirus posted:I still think you got the wrong numbers. Do you mean for people over a certain age? Do you realize that Wuhan is relaxing its extremely stringent lockdown (like, way more strict than anything implemented in the US) on April 8th -- and that will mean they will have been under super-strict lockdown for 76 days? Furthermore, China handled this problem by building field hospitals and expanding their healthcare capacity like crazy. None of the states in the US are doing anything anywhere close to that.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:11
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Ya'll think the economy is going to go back to normal when everyone realizes they have a 10% chance of dying in an overcrowded hospital lobby because they took a flight or ate in a Chili's dining room?
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Mar 25, 2020 05:14
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AngryBooch posted:Ya'll think the economy is going to go back to normal when everyone realizes they have a 10% chance of dying in an overcrowded hospital lobby because they took a flight or ate in a Chili's dining room? -video of kids on spring break
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Mar 25, 2020 05:24
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Foma posted:-video of kids on spring break "If I get corona, I get corona"
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Mar 25, 2020 05:28
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You guys do know that the death rate if you need ICU level (aka critical) care and can't get it is 100%, right? ICU for coronavirus means you're intubated aka you have a machine breathing for you. The death rate for people that are intubated more than 2-3 days in an ICU is 40-60+% and depends on a bunch of risk factors. These docs are not screwing around with any soft ICU admits. If you can handle a regular hospital bed, they're transferring you and replacing you with the next sick as hell person.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:42
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Screenshot from a scambaiting friend. Mega Don’s somewhere in Nigeria haha.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:43
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This is a good description of what China did and we're not doing. It's Maddow, but she just asks one (bad) question and gets it immediately shot down and then the rest is the most detailed and informative description I've seen yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3gCbkeARbY This is why even the relatively early and relatively stringent (compared to the rest of the US) "lockdowns" we've seen in the SF bay area and NYC are not in the same ballpark as what they've been doing in China. We simply cannot look at the Chinese curve and predict that the US will follow a similar curve. We're doing so very much worse at mitigation that it's laughable.
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Mar 25, 2020 05:52
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Futures spiked 40 points on this at 12:58am. Eric Ueland is a White House aide. McConnell about to speak on the Senate floor. Yes, C-SPAN is live at 1:12am. https://twitter.com/JenniferShutt/status/1242676871957032966 We've retraced half those gains. Might try to scalp a pump once McConnell starts speaking. edit: Full retracement. This is too scary, I'm gonna stay away. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 06:13
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coronavirus posted:I still think you got the wrong numbers. Do you mean for people over a certain age? you think by doing nothing you will have the China curve? Or the Italy curve? Or the South Korea curve? Lol Puts, all day long after the pump
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Mar 25, 2020 06:26
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:No, it is true for people who dont receive hospital care, which is going to be everywhere. Look at Atlanta for instance. Does a 10-20% death rate for those who are unable to get an ICU bed change the discussion? Yep, and as soon as the hospitals are overwhelmed, everyone else becomes that population who will not receive hospital care. Leperflesh posted:This is a good description of what China did and we're not doing. It's Maddow, but she just asks one (bad) question and gets it immediately shot down and then the rest is the most detailed and informative description I've seen yet. Yeah, we're looking more likely to be on Italy's curve, or Spain where they don't even have the infrastructure to handle the dead and are resorting to stacking them in ice rinks. Liquid Communism fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 07:07
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I’ve never bought an option before. Today I bought 5/1 SPY 150 puts! It’s only $220 of play money, but I am nonetheless excited! I am betting against the stock market! Like in the movies!
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Mar 25, 2020 07:15
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The only thing that brings me joy right now is cackling at https://brrr.money and the lovely Eurobeat music because it so accurately captures the epic, arguably mitigateable/avoidable clusterfuck we’re in. Anyways, so, jobs report is 4/3?
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Mar 25, 2020 07:41
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Kazak_Hstan posted:I’ve never bought an option before. Today I bought 5/1 SPY 150 puts! Welcome, friend. I bought my first SPY put on Friday, sold Monday, and bought a fresh one just before close today. It's been fun, even though I'm only playing with the same sort of bankroll I allow myself for a rare weekend of gambling or betting on PredictIt.
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Mar 25, 2020 07:42
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movax posted:The only thing that brings me joy right now is cackling at https://brrr.money and the lovely Eurobeat music because it so accurately captures the epic, arguably mitigateable/avoidable clusterfuck we’re in. Yes
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Mar 25, 2020 07:57
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Pump this deal right into my veins. Calling a mega fade EOD. Selling all calls at the open.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:23
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:Why do people keep parroting the 2% death rate in their calculations when that is for people that are in ICU? I wish they'd use the more correct 10-20%, I'm curious if that changes their outlook This is just wrong. Roughly 2% of diagnosed cases go on to die. It is about as simple as that.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:28
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hobbez posted:This is just wrong. Roughly 2% of diagnosed cases go on to die. It is about as simple as that. quote:But as the pandemic ratchets up, with 417,000 cases and counting worldwide as of Tuesday, it’s increasingly clear that the coronavirus is severely harming substantial numbers of people under 50. quote:“Even if the deaths are concentrated at older ages, it still seems that serious cases and hospitalization and requiring ventilators is not entirely rare even at younger ages,” Jennifer Dowd, an associate professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford, told BuzzFeed News. “I would say nobody should just laugh it off as, ‘I’ve got a good immune system and I’ll be fine.’ Because as we get more and more cases, even a small risk of complications adds up to a lot of people.” quote:The coronavirus’ spread throughout China, where it originated, provided the broader public with its initial understanding of the virus. The World Health Organization’s February report on nearly 56,000 confirmed cases in China found that “most people” — about 80% — have “mild to moderate disease” and recover. This means, as long as those 10-20% get a hospital, everything is fine and we stay somewhere near the 1-2% mortality rate - if they dont get a hospital, they wont be fine. Do the math for america yourself, it doesnt even matter it its 10% or 20% - both numbers will cause a catastrophy. quote:Those at highest risk for severe symptoms and death include people over age 60, as well as those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and cancer, according to the report. Nektu fucked around with this message at 10:38 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 09:58
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https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1242749074438344704?s=20 There's no way Trump signs this, I'm calling it
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Mar 25, 2020 10:46
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Nektu posted:Hmm, according to this: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-young-age-severe-cases Yeah but there are massive other confounding factors like the thousands of cases that don’t get noticed or diagnosed at all, which in turns drops the fatality rate. Ive heard some rumblings in the medical community the young severely effected by this are likely to be heavy vapers (and Washington, California, and New York are huuuuge on vaping)
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Mar 25, 2020 11:24
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not gonna lie, reading american news feels like a textbook entry on "events preceding a civil war"
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Mar 25, 2020 11:31
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Prince Charles now has the roni.
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Mar 25, 2020 11:58
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there's a whole department of the treasury, but, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-taps-blackrock-to-run-emergency-programs-2020-03-25?mod=the-wall-street-journal Fed taps BlackRock to run emergency programs
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Mar 25, 2020 12:29
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Oscar Wild posted:https://twitter.com/WAFB/status/1242588481504845830?s=19 Can I revise my SPY/Oil prediction?
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Mar 25, 2020 12:43
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Nektu posted:Hmm, according to this: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-young-age-severe-cases You do realize just because "20%" require hospitalization (and this number is hugely skewed because we don't test non-sick people) that doesn't mean 20% require ICU? Its a fraction of that number. We aren't going to lose 30 million americans to this. Hell, I'd bet (and am betting by upping my contributions) we have 0 chance of losing more than 1 million, but I actually figure it will be under 50 thousand.
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Mar 25, 2020 12:52
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It's about 4% that require intensive care/a ventilator. And about 16% that require hospitalization/more attentive medical care. At least this is what the WHO said about two weeks ago.
Lambert fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 13:32
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Hmm, maybe I should sell the news and come back in a month.enraged_camel posted:When you don't have enough ICU beds, you need to start triaging, and that means people start dying when they otherwise would have lived. I guess the question is, how many people under age 50 will need ICU to save them? enraged_camel posted:In addition -- do you really think that those over, say, 50 years old, would be okay with staying at home while young people went to work? Not a compelling argument. AngryBooch posted:what do you think will happen to the 15% of infected people who need hospitalization when the hospitals are overflowing? They'll be safer at home and can likely get the same hydration and bed rest they'd have received at the hospital. Tom Hanks and his wife are middle aged, were hospitalized, and nothing about their pretty well publicized hospital stay gave me the impression it was at all necessary to save their lives. mike12345 posted:not gonna lie, reading american news feels like a textbook entry on "events preceding a civil war" Clickbait/rageclick journalism has that effect.
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Mar 25, 2020 13:43
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bunch of those Mortgage REITs up like +50% drat
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Mar 25, 2020 13:52
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"Only quarantine people over 50" will never work, it's not a sensible plan. Letting it spread would mean hospitals quickly get overwhelmed - Seattle has already reported that their ICUs are full, and there are shortages of all kinds of safety equipment. It's also not likely everybody under 50 would simply return to "business as usual", knowing a virus is spreading that could lead to lifelong lung damage or even death even in younger people. Just because Tom Hanks was fine and maybe would have been fine without medical care (which we don't know) doesn't mean you can surmise from that everybody would be fine without hospitals. Full hospitals also mean many other illnesses suddenly become life-threatening because there's a lack of capacity to treat them. We should take the short-term economic pain and do this right, and bail out individuals as well as companies. It's best for the economy. Lambert fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 13:59
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LOOOL there's a payroll tax cut in the stimulus but only for employers Gonna try to open 5/15 SPY puts 10% below spot around 1pm. Senate doesn't open until noon. Passage of the bill is surely priced in. Trump signing it, even if he does so tomorrow after the jobless claims, won't blunt any downturn. Strangely I think if the claims number is under 2 million we could see a pop. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 14:08
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The rate of people that require ICUs / ventilators is approximately double the death rate. For under 50 that’s around 0.4% which would be much worse than the worst flu season I’ve ever seen. The death rate approaches the ventilator rate once you overwhelm the capacity. For every hospital, about 10% will be dedicated ICU beds, another 10% ED beds that can be converted, 10% surgical beds that can function like an ICU bed, but by the time that you start converting those beds to ICU level, you’ll start to run out of nursing staff or ventilators as ICU level care is usually 2 patients : 1 nurse. Hospital beds are around like 3-5 per 1000 in the USA iirc.
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Mar 25, 2020 14:08
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LLCoolJD posted:
I don't know, I feel it's also the fact that a lot of people pretend to know better, helped by a commander in chief who's good at bullshitting and not much else.
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Mar 25, 2020 14:11
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greasyhands posted:Speaking of cheap for a reason im gonna go ahead and bail on CPE and move that money to APA and OXY Jack Daniels posted:
exit APA in PM +20% one day hold super clean... thanks again, good luck on your way to 8 
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Mar 25, 2020 14:12
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Lote posted:Hospital beds are around like 3-5 per 1000 in the USA iirc. Here's an idea of the hospital bed situation in the US. My wife's hospital has ~36 hours of supplies left, no unused ICU or vent capacity, and no isolation rooms free. Our friend who is an ED doc has reported that they have less than two dozen potential COVID cases (they can't seem to get test results back from the state) and they are already pulling staff and resources from scheduled surgeries and procedures wherever possible to provide care. They've had four suspected COVID deaths since last Thurs. One was under 50 and in good health until they suddenly deteriorated. And that's with 24/7 professional medical care. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 14:16
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