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Steelers have the conference win tiebreaker over the Ravens, true, but common games should be the first tiebreaker, which would give the Ravens the edge, wouldn't it, maybe I calculated that incorrectly... Either way, no more Bills to worry about! edit: yep, I figured it out. I must've screwed something up when I first counted - common games Steelers and Ravens are even. Essentially, their records against the AFCS/NFCS are both 6-2. pathetic little tramp fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Dec 22, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 01:26
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pathetic little tramp posted:Steelers have the conference win tiebreaker over the Ravens, true, but common games should be the first tiebreaker, which would give the Ravens the edge, wouldn't it, maybe I calculated that incorrectly... Yeah common games in divisions come first unless they changed it last offseason. But maybe there's a tie there or something now.
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Dec 22, 2014 01:31
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The Texans are still alive for the 6 seed somehow, but they need a pretty specific set of circumstances to get in.
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Dec 22, 2014 01:38
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YMB posted:The Texans are still alive for the 6 seed somehow, but they need a pretty specific set of circumstances to get in. Not too crazy of circumstances. They just need the Ravens and Chargers to lose while winning their game against the Jags. The Chargers can for sure lose and the Chiefs will actually be playing as they still have a shot (if the Ravens and Texans both lose). The Ravens losing to the Browns on the other hand... The Bills losing really cleared things up this week. It's basically Chargers > Ravens > Texans > Chiefs for the 6 seed now. The Bengals haven't clinched a spot, have they? But I have no idea how they get knocked. edit: Bengals miss the playoffs if they lose out and the Chargers and Ravens win next week. pathetic little tramp fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Dec 22, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 01:48
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blue squares posted:You mean there could be THREE teams from the AFCN? Lucky bastards played the NFC South
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Dec 22, 2014 01:49
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Its kind of baffling to me that the Steelers are the only AFCN team to clinch a spot but they don't lead the division. Ties are weird.
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Dec 22, 2014 04:18
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Militree posted:Its kind of baffling to me that the Steelers are the only AFCN team to clinch a spot but they don't lead the division. Ties are weird. That's mainly because the Bengals haven't played, they'll clinch a spot with a win too and if they lose tomorrow than the Steelers will in fact be leading the division
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Dec 22, 2014 04:28
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pathetic little tramp posted:edit: Bengals miss the playoffs if they lose out and the Chargers and Ravens win next week.
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Dec 22, 2014 04:29
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No, the Bengals still get in with a Baltimore loss + Charger Win + Losing out. If the Ravens don't capitalise and they lose to the Browns, the Bengals bungle into the playoffs. edit: Actually, if the Ravens lose, the Bengals are in no matter what I do believe. There don't appear to be any scenarios for Cincinnati to miss the playoffs if the Ravens are out of the running.
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Dec 22, 2014 05:40
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Are there any likely scenarios where the NFC doesn't run through Seattle?
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Dec 22, 2014 06:11
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Malloreon posted:Are there any likely scenarios where the NFC doesn't run through Seattle? You need them to lose to St. Louis. Other than that, a tie between Green Bay and Detroit, along with a Dallas win, would do it.
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Dec 22, 2014 06:22
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Malloreon posted:Are there any likely scenarios where the NFC doesn't run through Seattle? SEA loses to STL while ARI and GB both win. Yes, it's the Rams, and yes, it's at CenturyLink, but stranger things have happened.
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Dec 22, 2014 06:22
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HMS Beagle posted:You need them to lose to St. Louis. Other than that, a tie between Green Bay and Detroit, along with a Dallas win, would do it. Shame on anyone who's not rooting for that tie.
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Dec 22, 2014 06:25
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Yeah I wouldn't just assume the Rams roll over and die. They have been the 2nd best team in the NFC West over the last 8 games and are playing pretty well. Plus they always give the Seahawks fits.
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Dec 22, 2014 08:00
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Seems like (barring some extremely unlikely scenarios) the NFC North winner is #1, NFC West winner is #2, Dallas is #3, NFC South is #4, NFC West loser is #5, and NFC North loser is #6. How lucky for the Cardinals.
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Dec 22, 2014 08:06
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Randandal posted:Seems like (barring some extremely unlikely scenarios) the NFC North winner is #1, NFC West winner is #2, Dallas is #3, NFC South is #4, NFC West loser is #5, and NFC North loser is #6. Unless the Seahawks lose next week they're practically guaranteed the West. (Requires a tie by GB/DET and a Dallas win against Philly.) DancingMachine posted:Yeah I wouldn't just assume the Rams roll over and die. They have been the 2nd best team in the NFC West over the last 8 games and are playing pretty well. Plus they always give the Seahawks fits. I'm glad Russell mentioned this during the post game. The Rams are legit when the offense hasn't totally stagnated and they would absolutely love to spoil the 1 seed for us. Also I really worry about injuries to key players against them. 
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Dec 22, 2014 08:48
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Remember that game where the rams beat the seahawks cause a ref took out our reciever on a deep ball. gently caress the rams
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Dec 22, 2014 08:51
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if Dallas is #3 do we get to play the NFC South??
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Dec 22, 2014 08:55
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blue squares posted:if Dallas is #3 do we get to play the NFC South?? The NFC South would be the #4 so it's unlikely.
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Dec 22, 2014 09:05
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Oh right I forgot to account for the teams that have byes
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Dec 22, 2014 09:13
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blue squares posted:if Dallas is #3 do we get to play the NFC South?? We get to host Green Bay or Detroit.
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Dec 22, 2014 09:13
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I posted this in the aftermath thread, but this is probably the most appropriate place. Someone sad that Seattle is in control of their destiny, but that doesn't seem right. The winner of Lions/Packers will be 12-4. If the lions win, they will have a 10-2 conference record and 6-0 division record. If the Packers win and Seattle wins and Dallas loses, Seattle has the head to head tie-breaker. I think Seattle will take it over Green Bay regardless because they'll have a 10-2 conference record over a 9-3 for the packers. Dallas can only get the #1 seed if Green Bay and Detroit tie because they'll then have the head-to-head over Seattle. The only team that truly seems in charge of their destiny is the Lions. If they win next week, #1 seed, Dallas #2, Seattle #3. If the Packers win, Seattle 1, Green Bay 2, Dallas 3. So Dallas still can use a win against Washington, but it only really matters if the Lions win or tie. EDIT: It seems I'm most likely wrong. Mr. Nice! fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Dec 22, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 14:14
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Randandal posted:We get to host Green Bay or Detroit. Unless they tie and Arizona loses. If that happens, Dallas is #1, Seattle #2, GB/Detroit #3, NFC South 4, GB/Detroit 5, Arizona 6.
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Dec 22, 2014 14:21
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Mr. Nice! posted:I posted this in the aftermath thread, but this is probably the most appropriate place. You are wrong. The only scenarios the Seahawks win and are not the #1 seed are either Dallas losing and Lions win, or Dallas win and Lions v Packers tie. In all other situations they have the #1 seed, if they win against the Rams.
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Dec 22, 2014 15:20
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chart
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Dec 22, 2014 15:20
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Qwijib0 posted:chart That doesn't account for ties, which I think the only thing that would totally screw everything up is if GB / Detroit tied. Also if Seattle loses we could still get 1 home game if Arizona loses again, so uh... go 49ers??? A disgusting situation.
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Dec 22, 2014 15:25
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Qwijib0 posted:chart Doesn't account for Dallas losing to the Redskins. In that case the Lions would get the #1 seed if they win.
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Dec 22, 2014 15:29
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Kalli posted:Lucky bastards played the NFC South It's amazing the Steelers have made it despite a lovely start and only going 2-2 against them. Dropped a game to the Jets too. As a Steelers fan I'd be loathe to place any money money on them in any game whatsoever given the teams they've beaten and lost to this year. Thauros fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Dec 22, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 15:32
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You know what you must do, Rams. It is your destiny.
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Dec 22, 2014 18:02
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GaussianCopula posted:Doesn't account for Dallas losing to the Redskins. In that case the Lions would get the #1 seed if they win. Seattle still gets the #1 seed in that case if they win against the Rams. If Seattle loses in that instance, then Arizona gets #1. Seattle, Arizona, and Dallas all have to lose for the Lions to get the #1 seed.
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Dec 22, 2014 18:41
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If the following happens: -Bengals lose tonight -At least one of the Chargers and Ravens lose next week Then all the Bengals/Steelers game week 17 decides is whose house the wild card rematch takes place in gently caress
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Dec 22, 2014 19:29
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GaussianCopula posted:Doesn't account for Dallas losing to the Redskins. In that case the Lions would get the #1 seed if they win. A SEA & DET 2-way tie at 12-4 would breakdown as such: code:
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Dec 22, 2014 19:38
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 Last Updated: Sunday, December 21st, 23h30 pre:## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Conference Results -- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- 01 Sea 11-4 4-1 9-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi Ws.f Wari vStL W-G.B,Ari L-Dal 02 Det 11-4 5-0 9-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b Wmin Wchi @G.B W-G.B L-Ari 03 Dal 11-4 3-2 7-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi Wphi Wind @Was W-Sea L-Ari 04 Car 06*8 3-2 5-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o Wt.b Wcle @Atl 05 Ari 11-4 3-2 8-3 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c Wstl Lsea @S.F W-Dal,Det L-Sea 06 G.B 11-4 4-1 8-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e Watl Lbuf Wt.b vDet L-Det,Sea ~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~ Atl 06-9 5-0 6-5 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari Lg.b Lpit Wn.o vCar W-N.O StL@Sea Det@G.B Ari@S.F Dal@Was 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th ------- ------- ------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- Sea G.B * * Sea G.B Dal Ari Det Sea Det * * Sea Det Dal Ari G.B StL G.B Ari * G.B Ari Dal Sea Det StL G.B S.F * G.B Dal Sea Ari Det StL Det Ari * Ari Det Dal Sea G.B StL Det S.F * Det Dal Sea Ari G.B Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk13), Tampa Bay, Chicago (Wk14), Minnesota, St.Louis, San Francisco (Wk15), New Orleans, Philadelphia (Wk16) 1st Seed if Win vStL. 3rd Seed if Lose vStL AND Ari lose @S.F. 5th Seed if Lose vStL AND Ari win @S.F. Green Bay Packers: 1st Seed if Win vDet AND Sea lose vStL. 2nd Seed if Win vDet AND Sea win vStL. 6th Seed if Lose vDet. Arizona Cardinals: 1st Seed if Win @S.F AND Sea lose vStL AND Det win @G.B. 2nd Seed if Win @S.F AND Sea lose vStL AND G.B win vDet. 5th Seed if Lose @S.F OR Sea win vStL. Detroit Lions: 1st Seed if Win @G.B AND Sea lose vStL AND Ari lose @S.F. 2nd Seed if Win @G.B AND either [Sea win vStL OR Ari win @S.F]. 6th Seed if Lose @G.B. Dallas Cowboys: 2nd Seed if Sea lose vStL AND Ari lose @S.F. 3rd Seed if Sea win vStL OR Ari win @S.F. (Note that the Dal@Was result is meaningless UNLESS there is a tie in either Det@G.B or StL@Sea or Ari@S.F). kalensc fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Dec 22, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 19:42
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After the Den@Cin result it'll be easier to stitch everything together, for now it's broken down into 3 groups of seeds. Last Updated: Monday, December 22nd, 23h30 pre:## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Conference Results -- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------------------- 01 N.E 12-3 4-1 9-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b Ws.d Wmia Wnyj vBuf W-Den 02 Den 11-4 5-0 9-2 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf Ws.d Lcin vOak W-Ind L-N.E 03 Ind 10-5 5-0 8-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle Whou Ldal @Ten L-Den,Pit,N.E 04 Cin 10*4 3-2 7-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Lpit Wcle Wden @Pit 05 Pit 10-5 3-2 8-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin Watl Wk.c vCin W-Ind WL-Bal 06 S.D 09-6 2-3 6-5 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e Lden Ws.f @K.C L-K.C Bal 09-6 2-3 5-6 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia Wjax Lhou vCle WL-Pit Hou 08-7 3-2 7-4 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax Lind Wbal vJax K.C 08-7 2-3 6-5 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden Lari Woak Lpit vS.D W-S.D Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee & New York (Wk12), Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo (Wk16) Oak@Den Cin@Pit S.D@K.C Cle@Bal Jax@Hou 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Miss Playoffs ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ------------- Den Cin S.D * * N.E Den Cin Ind Pit S.D Bal, Hou, K.C Den Cin K.C Bal * N.E Den Cin Ind Pit Bal Hou, K.C, S.D Den Cin K.C Cle Hou N.E Den Cin Ind Pit Hou K.C, S.D, Bal Den Cin K.C Cle Jax N.E Den Cin Ind Pit K.C S.D, Bal, Hou Oak Cin S.D * * N.E Cin Den Ind Pit S.D Bal, Hou, K.C Oak Cin K.C Bal * N.E Cin Den Ind Pit Bal Hou, K.C, S.D Oak Cin K.C Cle Hou N.E Cin Den Ind Pit Hou K.C, S.D, Bal Oak Cin K.C Cle Jax N.E Cin Den Ind Pit K.C S.D, Bal, Hou * Pit S.D * * N.E Den Pit Ind Cin S.D Bal, Hou, K.C * Pit K.C Bal * N.E Den Pit Ind Cin Bal Hou, K.C, S.D * Pit K.C Cle Hou N.E Den Pit Ind Cin Hou K.C, S.D, Bal * Pit K.C Cle Jax N.E Den Pit Ind Cin K.C S.D, Bal, Hou Clinched 1st Seed in the AFC. Denver Broncos: 2nd Seed if - [Win vOak OR Cin lose @Pit] OR [Lose vOak AND Cin tie @Pit AND Ind win @Ten]. 3rd Seed if - [Lose vOak AND Cin win @Pit] OR [Lose vOak AND Cin tie @Pit AND Ind lose @Ten]. Cincinnati Bengals: 2nd Seed if - [Win @Pit AND Den lose vOak] OR [Tie @Pit AND Den lose vOak AND Ind lose @Ten]. 3rd Seed if - (Win or tie) @Pit AND Den win vOak. 5th Seed if - Lose @Pit. Pittsburgh Steelers: 3rd Seed if - Win vCin. 5th Seed if - (Lose or tie) vCin. Indianapolis Colts: 3rd Seed if - Win @Ten AND Cin tie @Pit. 4th Seed if - Lose @Ten OR Cin win @Pit OR Cin lose @Pit. San Diego Chargers: 6th Seed if - Win @K.C. Eliminated if - Lose @K.C. Baltimore Ravens: 6th Seed if - Win vCle AND S.D lose @K.C. Eliminated if - Lose vCle OR S.D win @K.C. Houston Texans: 6th Seed if - Win vJax AND S.D lose @K.C AND Bal lose vCle. Eliminated if - Lose vJax OR S.D win @K.C OR Bal win vCle. Kansas City Chiefs: 6th Seed if - Win vS.D AND Bal lose vCle AND Hou lose vJax. Eliminated if - Lose vS.D OR Bal win vCle OR Hou win vJax. kalensc fucked around with this message at 07:32 on Dec 23, 2014 |
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Dec 22, 2014 20:14
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 Current Draft Order (Through Week 16 except MNF) pre:## Tm. Ovr W Ovr L Ovr % SoS W SoS L SoS % Max Min -- --- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --- --- 01 T.B 2 13 0.133 115.5 123.5 0.483 1st 2nd 02 TEN 2 13 0.133 116.5 120.5 0.492 1st 2nd 03 JAX 3 12 0.200 120.5 116.5 0.508 3rd 6th 04 NYJ 3 12 0.200 132 107 0.552 3rd 6th 05 OAK 3 12 0.200 137 101 0.576 3rd 6th 06 WAS 4 11 0.267 117 122 0.490 3rd 6th 07 CHI 5 10 0.333 125.5 114.5 0.523 7th 11th 08 ATL 6 9 0.400 114.5 124.5 0.479 7th 21st+ (Can qualify for playoffs) 09 MIN 6 9 0.400 115.5 124.5 0.481 7th 13th 10 N.O 6 9 0.400 115.5 123.5 0.483 7th 13th 11 NYG 6 9 0.400 122 117 0.510 8th 14th 12 STL 6 9 0.400 127 112 0.531 8th 14th 13 CAR 6.5 8.5 0.433 116.5 122.5 0.487 8th 21st+ (Can qualify for playoffs) 14 CLE 7 8 0.467 110.5 126.5 0.466 9th 15th 15 S.F 7 8 0.467 128 111 0.536 9th 19th
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Dec 22, 2014 21:31
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I'm fairly sure Oakland will pick 5th. Oakland won't beat Denver, and the Jets won't beat Miami at home, nor will the Jags beat Houston on the road. Blah
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Dec 22, 2014 21:38
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Blitz7x posted:I'm fairly sure Oakland will pick 5th. Oakland won't beat Denver, and the Jets won't beat Miami at home, nor will the Jags beat Houston on the road. High five winning-meaningless-games-in-December-to-ruin-your-draft-position bros!
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Dec 22, 2014 22:55
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If the Panthers make the playoffs and the Ravens don't, that would be a real kick in the nuts to Steve Smith, I bet.
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Dec 22, 2014 23:09
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Completely random stats showing how top-heavy the AFC has been lately: - In twenty years of the AFC championship, the combination of Pittsburgh/New England/Denver/Indianapolis/Baltimore has taken 29 of 40 possible appearances. The top five NFC teams over this timespan (Green Bay, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and any two of the four teams with three appearances) have taken 16 of 40 slots. - Four teams (those big five, minus Baltimore) have hosted the AFC championship game 17 times in 20 years. Last team outside of them to do that was Oakland in 2003. That was also the last time a team other than one of those five won the AFC. Over in the NFC, 12 different teams have hosted a conference championship. - 10 of 16 teams have made the AFC championship. 14 of 16 teams have made the NFC championship. In short, that handful of big AFC teams clogs up the playoffs every year
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Dec 23, 2014 06:46
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I don't like the win-loss-tied percentage idea. This formula calculates a tie as 1/2 win and 1/2 loss. I think the tie game should not count as anything. I want the Panthers/Falcons game to have playoff implications for the Saints. If the Saints win their game, their win-loss would be 0.4375. Then if the Panthers/Falcons tie, Panthers win-loss would be 0.4286, and Falcons 0.4. Saints should make the playoffs in this scenario. However, making tie games equal 1/2 win and 1/2 loss ruins my dream.
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Dec 23, 2014 08:42
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