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Honest question where are you getting your sources half of what you post comes from entirely questionable sources.
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May 11, 2022 01:45
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socialsecurity posted:Honest question where are you getting your sources half of what you post comes from entirely questionable sources. It's called Twitter and it sucks so bad that they might put Elon Musk in charge of the entire thing soon.
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May 11, 2022 01:54
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Vox Nihili posted:It's called Twitter and it sucks so bad that they might put Elon Musk in charge of the entire thing soon. Did you hear that if Elon Musk gets Twitter he's giving back Trump his account
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May 11, 2022 01:56
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socialsecurity posted:Honest question where are you getting your sources half of what you post comes from entirely questionable sources. I have an OSINT aggregator aggregator. It aggregates the OSINT aggregators and gives me the fullest picture of all the allcaps breaking news.
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May 11, 2022 02:14
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https://ria.ru/20220511/naemniki-1787815795.html Russia is probably going to execute foreign fighters from Azov (or just any battalion). Cossack Gundi is doomed prob
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May 11, 2022 02:17
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Willo567 posted:Did you hear that if Elon Musk gets Twitter he's giving back Trump his account Wonder what the whole "imma buy twitter for freedom of speech" will amount to when people start accounts tracking Elon's every movement.
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May 11, 2022 02:24
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MassiveSky posted:Wonder what the whole "imma buy twitter for freedom of speech" will amount to when people start accounts tracking Elon's every movement. You don't have to wait, he specifically bought Twitter because he was mad Twitter wasn't cracking down on those accounts enough.
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May 11, 2022 02:35
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Willo567 posted:Did you hear that if Elon Musk gets Twitter he's giving back Trump his account Yep, I follow all of this idiotic stuff way too closely. Although it remains to be seen whether the whole take-private deal actually happens. Buying a large public company is a huge undertaking and the words that dribble out of Elon's mouth often bear little resemblance to the reality on the ground.
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May 11, 2022 02:37
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the holy poopacy posted:I assume that the logic is that the West would automatically escalate to full scale nuclear war in response to tactical nukes that Russia would use in that scenario May I ask why you think NATO is automatically going to escalate to WW3 in that scenario, considering they're hell bent on avoiding it and that the Biden administration is worried about the possibility already?
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May 11, 2022 02:38
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the holy poopacy posted:You don't have to wait, he specifically bought Twitter because he was mad Twitter wasn't cracking down on those accounts enough. He literally offered the kid running the account that automatically tweeted out the flight plan destinations of his private jet $44k to shut down the account. When the kid told him to get hosed, he then offered Twitter $44 billion to just buy the whole platform. (Also this is apparently a rebound rage buy because he’s mad that Grimes left him for Chelsea Manning)
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May 11, 2022 02:41
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Willo567 posted:May I ask why you think NATO is automatically going to escalate to WW3 in that scenario, considering they're hell bent on avoiding it and that the Biden administration is worried about the possibility already? You could but it would be useless because I don't think that, I was just trying to extrapolate from the crazy nuke guy's posts (because it seems like a more generous assumption than assuming he means that the instant Russia sees the faintest shadow of a potential military threat they will immediately launch every missile in their arsenal.)
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May 11, 2022 02:43
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ISW Baybeee https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524179979919048709?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10 Selections quote:Key Takeaways Also some background from one of the ISW writer people, including items that were *not* included in the update. Spoilers for tomorrow perhaps https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1524188298985365504?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1524189895320903680?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ There's more in his thread, big recommend
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May 11, 2022 03:07
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Double post for more maaaaaps https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1524177743084142592?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1524177762721931264?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ Also list of goodies from the US that are now in Ukraine https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1524186797625982976?s=20&t=Ld4hlQ55mHecKiKXnjT1fQ Tag Urself Im Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles
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May 11, 2022 03:11
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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May 11, 2022 03:16
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I would doubt Vovchansk 'cause river and because it's huge as its on rail. Probably gonna have way more stuff guarding it than random villages.
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May 11, 2022 03:16
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OddObserver posted:I would doubt Vovchansk 'cause river and because it's huge as its on rail. Probably gonna have way more stuff guarding it than random villages. That would also mean that they were literally behind Russia's main force pushing south from Izyum. If that happened Russia would be done.
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May 11, 2022 03:19
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KitConstantine posted:Double post for more maaaaaps Thank you for your service maps man. Mods please rename me to ‘Phoenix Ghost Tactiloool’
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May 11, 2022 03:24
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Nenonen posted:Ukraine is not winning, they are fighting a bitter war against Russia. They are not losing either, but every day more people die. .... You have the brainworms if you think that this war will end by any other means than negotiations. Every week that goes by on this war, a lot of people feel compelled to carve out a new niche of revised definitions that can be deployed to claim that what russia is doing can be called "not losing, per se" The upper conceivable boundary of what land russia can hold in the medium to long term dwindles, their large scale operational intent (like sweeping across the coast) bank down from improbability to impossibility, and their operational cohesion shows that they're losing their window of opportunity to do more than just squat on the separatist districts and be bled by an opponent with deeper resolve than they ever had Why we gotta look at this like that it's impossible that russia is in a situation where time and attrition disfavors it, and that Ukraine needs to jump onto the negotiation train and beseech russia to offer favorable terms How many weeks ago was it "Ukraine needs to surrender, they gain nothing from pretending the sacrifice they are making will save their country" And in how many weeks can we retire "Ukraine must give russia something ... it can't end any other way except placating them with some sacrifice to give putin an out"
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May 11, 2022 03:26
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If they did infact take vovchansk that is a creates a very bad situation for izyum. Encircling and destroying the izyum BTGs would be a major turning point in the war in terms of how quickly """"the collapse"""" would come after or it would be accelerated
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May 11, 2022 03:29
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The military aid package has passed the House 368-57: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/10/congress-ukraine-aid-package-00031366quote:Under the Ukraine aid plan, the nearly $40 billion total goes beyond Biden’s request for $33 billion, a sum that was already expected to be transformative for both the Ukrainian military and NATO allies. The almost $40 billion total amounts to more than 5 percent of the United States’ entire national security budget of $782 billion, and lawmakers opted to include even more funding for military and humanitarian programs than Biden had originally requested.
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May 11, 2022 03:35
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Staluigi posted:And in how many weeks can we retire "Ukraine must give russia something ... it can't end any other way except placating them with some sacrifice to give putin an out"
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May 11, 2022 03:53
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Looking at the summary of equipment the US is sending, that is a lot of artillery. 90 guns is enough to outfit 5 NATO artillery battalions, or the organic artillery of 5 light infantry brigades. 75K sets of body armor should mean that drat near every Ukrainian soldier in direct contact has body armor. That's 15 brigades worth of armor. And I don't think they started with 0. The $3.9B in the latest appropriation for US troop deployments is enough for 4-6 brigade combat teams, assuming the Air Force and Navy are free. (They're not: I just have no frame of reference for what it costs to keep them deployed, but remember it cost ~%500M/year to keep a brigade in Kuwait in the late 90s and early 2000's). I think the US currently has 1 x Armored BCT in Poland and 1 x Light BCT in Poland. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 2-4 get deployed as well. It takes ~30 days for ships to get from Texas to Kuwait, so maybe a bit less than that to ports in the Baltic? European rail lines are probably the limiting factor. I'm speculating, of course.
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May 11, 2022 04:15
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Staluigi posted:How many weeks ago was it "Ukraine needs to surrender, they gain nothing from pretending the sacrifice they are making will save their country" You seem to think that I have said anything to that effect when I have never said or thought that Ukraine should surrender, nor do I think that Ukraine should give Russia 'something'. Why is the idea that NEGOTIATIONS FOR A PEACE OR ARMISTICE is an impossible concept for some I just don't get. It will take a while before Russia starts making concessions, so I'm not expecting any quick results though.
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May 11, 2022 04:18
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If and hopefully when us sends more ABCTs to call Putins nuke bluff they wont ship their tanks. The ABCT that last rolled in used European preposotion Stocks. That means deployment time of days If everything goes to plan, not weeks.
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May 11, 2022 04:23
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If they did infact take vovchansk that is a creates a very bad situation for izyum. Encircling and destroying the izyum BTGs would be a major turning point in the war in terms of how quickly """"the collapse"""" would come after or it would be accelerated
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May 11, 2022 04:24
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the popes toes posted:It seems to me, prudent and rational, to wait until the Russian feint is completed, before anticipating this so called "collapse". I mean the collapse of the offensive. I put this in scare quotes for a reason. Russia has been pulling out of the Kharkiv offensive for a few weeks and it looks like it's close to completion. So this was an organized retreat.
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May 11, 2022 04:27
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Nenonen posted:Why is the idea that NEGOTIATIONS FOR A PEACE OR ARMISTICE is an impossible concept for some I just don't get. It will take a while before Russia starts making concessions, so I'm not expecting any quick results though. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I mean the collapse of the offensive. I put this in scare quotes for a reason.
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May 11, 2022 04:37
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Valtonen posted:If and hopefully when us sends more ABCTs to call Putins nuke bluff they wont ship their tanks. The ABCT that last rolled in used European preposotion Stocks. That means deployment time of days If everything goes to plan, not weeks. Good point. I'm unsure how much the US has pre-positioned in Europe these days.
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May 11, 2022 04:48
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. drat, being in the US now, this feels weird as gently caress to see at like midnight. Also I think we should change these posts to "Moscow is still Russian"
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May 11, 2022 04:51
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Another dawn breaks. 26 days remaining.
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May 11, 2022 04:52
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It remains baffling to me that people here, even moderators, want Ukraine to surrender because that is just their place. UKRAINE WILL WIN. They will gently caress Russia's mother and Putin's too. loving tankies
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May 11, 2022 06:07
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Nenonen posted:Why is the idea that NEGOTIATIONS FOR A PEACE OR ARMISTICE is an impossible concept for some I just don't get. Nobody actually thinks this. Staluigi posted:And in how many weeks can we retire "Ukraine must give russia something ... it can't end any other way except placating them with some sacrifice to give putin an out" I mean, I think it's quite safe for Ukraine to give Russia the finger. Maybe even two.
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May 11, 2022 06:18
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HonorableTB posted:It remains baffling to me that people here, even moderators, want Ukraine to surrender because that is just their place. UKRAINE WILL WIN. They will gently caress Russia's mother and Putin's too. loving tankies are u ok
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May 11, 2022 06:34
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HonorableTB posted:It remains baffling to me that people here, even moderators, want Ukraine to surrender because that is just their place. UKRAINE WILL WIN. They will gently caress Russia's mother and Putin's too. loving tankies I don't think this is fair. Everyone here, along with everyone in the Western world in the last 40 years or so, grew up thinking that Russia were a superpower who had (at least) the second most effective military in the world and a much higher willingness to push the nuke button than anyone in the civilized West. It's not that people think Ukraine should know their place. It's because people have, at the back of their minds, the thought that this surely can't be it. That Russia must have something up their sleeve. That the great demon surely can't have been slain this easily. It's honestly a really difficult thing to get your head around.
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May 11, 2022 06:34
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sebmojo posted:are u ok I'm perfectly fine. My opinions are based on the day to day intelligence and information we have. Why do you feel like you can poo poo on me?
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May 11, 2022 06:37
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:I don't think this is fair. Everyone here, along with everyone in the Western world in the last 40 years or so, grew up thinking that Russia were a superpower who had (at least) the second most effective military in the world and a much higher willingness to push the nuke button than anyone in the civilized West. I lived in Russia for two years. My opinions are based off of living there combined with current events. Russia's military is poo poo. Their government is poo poo. They cannot win this war.
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May 11, 2022 06:38
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Nenonen posted:You seem to think that I have said anything to that effect when I have never said or thought that Ukraine should surrender, nor do I think that Ukraine should give Russia 'something'. Why is the idea that NEGOTIATIONS FOR A PEACE OR ARMISTICE is an impossible concept for some I just don't get. It will take a while before Russia starts making concessions, so I'm not expecting any quick results though. It's obvious that both Ukraine and Russia would like to negotiate an immediate end to the war but so far simply have incompatible demands for a peace agreement. Eventually that will change one way or the other.
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May 11, 2022 06:46
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HonorableTB posted:I lived in Russia for two years. My opinions are based off of living there combined with current events. Russia's military is poo poo. Their government is poo poo. They cannot win this war. We know, but we spent decades thinking the exact opposite and it's hard to break those connections in your brain. Most experts thought Ukraine had a week at best at the start of this war. European leaders were offering to host a government in exile. It's unfair to call people tankies or get mad at them for not fully accepting Russia can't be *this* bad. It's like waking up one morning and realizing the sky is pink and thinking it was blue all this time was a misapprehension.
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May 11, 2022 06:48
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:It's like waking up one morning and realizing the forums are full of pinkos and thinking they were arguing in good faith all this time was a misapprehension. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 11, 2022 06:52
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:We know, but we spent decades thinking the exact opposite and it's hard to break those connections in your brain. Most experts thought Ukraine had a week at best at the start of this war. European leaders were offering to host a government in exile. I understand your point and I agree that it can be hard to wrap your objective mind around that if you don't have the experience. I'm calling out sebmojo for trying to roast me without anything to back it up. Your point is valid based off of Cold War history
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