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Agronox posted:lol I'm going to have to update the best bottom chart again https://twitter.com/RedboxWire/status/1252040667385098240 https://twitter.com/RedboxWire/status/1252041774144446467 Wonder if June will be below $20 by morning
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Apr 20, 2020 02:26
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laxbro posted:Who generally loans this kind of money for LBOs? The kicker is that a lot of the big equity investors in LBO funds are usually also pension funds. With Calpers they publish fund performance for their private equity investments, with Ares, Apollo and KKR showing up in there. https://www.calpers.ca.gov/page/investments/asset-classes/private-equity/pep-fund-performance
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Apr 20, 2020 02:43
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I won't carry water for most of the individuals making calls on policy, but issuing stay at home orders is the correct move here. Not because it's going to 'ensure people's safety for them', but because we are structurally incapable of treating COVID-19 patients who, with treatment, will not die; unless we have lockdowns. There is not an amount of medical treatment capacity to provide the care for preventable deaths to be prevented, without spreading out how many people are infected over a larger window of time. How long do you expect the entire country to be under essential house arrest before this situation comes to a head? One more month? Two months? Six months? A year? Two years? There is no guarantee of a vaccine. There is no guarantee that the virus won't mutate into something that makes a vaccine ineffective. There is no guarantee that antibody immunity will be lasting or have any effect on future outbreaks. Most importantly, there is no guarantee that when the lockdown measures are lifted, we won't be back exactly where we were before. Imagine how half the country is going to react when they sat inside their house, got laid off, and are financially ruined because of a lockdown that seemingly achieved loving nothing. When this whole poo poo started in NYC six weeks ago I kept asking "what is the end game with this?" I kept getting sanctimonious responses of "flatten the curve to the hospitals can keep up". Well the curve has flattened and the strain on the hospitals was much less than originally anticipated. Now what? My question still stands. The only thing that seems certain to me is that this virus will be around for quite a long time. We all need to come to terms with this reality and figure out what the long term plan is. The current strategy of social distancing and lockdowns is not a long term plan.
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Apr 20, 2020 02:46
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Cheesemaster200 posted:The current strategy of social distancing and lockdowns is not a long term plan. Sez u. Social distancing has made me a hero, and true heroes never stop behaving heroically. But no, the real problem is that the only true way to solve this virus problem comes at the expense of
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Apr 20, 2020 02:58
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If we'd actually had a real loving lockdown instead of this half assed flatten the curve poo poo, maybe we could have actually reduced new cases close to zero in the past four weeks. Then with comprehensive regular testing maybe we had a chance of staying on top of it. Instead, if I go to the grocery store tomorrow, I probably have a higher chance of catching it than I did a month ago.
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Apr 20, 2020 02:58
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While we're waiting for Monday to tell us the future, here's a twitter thread about the past. https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073 In short: things can get very, very weird. I don't think we're "going back to normal" because I don't think there is a normal to go back to. Like, what is the normal? Trump and wild populism? The longest bull market in history? The biggest real estate crisis in history? The war on terror? The Internet bubble? This unprecedented event is one in a long series of unprecedented events on a planet careening through climate change. Things are going to keep changing.
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Apr 20, 2020 03:11
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Oil is dying ya'll
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Apr 20, 2020 03:22
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wanted to load the boat @ Oil 15... getting the mump truck ready here but prolly gonna ease in slowly here @ the open 
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Apr 20, 2020 03:31
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$0 wti here we go
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Apr 20, 2020 03:32
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Hit Man posted:Oil is dying ya'll 
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Apr 20, 2020 03:34
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I wanted to bet $9.99 oil but I couldn’t. It would’ve been the second lowest one  We are down to the last 10 people for the oil game. Lote fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 03:34
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Lote posted:I wanted to bet $9.99 oil but I couldn’t. It would’ve been the second lowest one I thought I was being ridiculous when I guessed $14...
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Apr 20, 2020 03:44
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Jack Daniels posted:wanted to load the boat @ Oil 15... getting the mump truck ready here but prolly gonna ease in slowly here @ the open Why wasn't I short when it WTI May was 18? It fell off a cliff and climbed back out
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Apr 20, 2020 03:46
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All that's left in the May contract are people trying desperately to avoid delivery, right?
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Apr 20, 2020 03:52
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saintonan posted:All that's left in the May contract are people trying desperately to avoid delivery, right?
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Apr 20, 2020 03:53
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saintonan posted:All that's left in the May contract are people trying desperately to avoid delivery, right? yeah lol
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Apr 20, 2020 03:57
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GamingHyena posted:"Reopening the economy" is such a red herring because a V shaped recovery simply isn't possible at this point. While COVID may have caused the initial economic downturn, we are now facing a recession fed by both the pandemic as well as traditional economic reasons (high employment, lower consumer spending). Even if you could wish away the coronavirus tomorrow, you are still left with tens of millions of people out of work and millions more concerned about losing their jobs. These people aren't going to be filling up movie theaters and hotels because they simply don't have the extra money to spend.
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Apr 20, 2020 05:52
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you just need to zoom out to 10-20 years, then sure itll look like a v
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Apr 20, 2020 05:56
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The CEO of Wynn called for the Vegas strip to open in mid/late May. I believe CZR and MGM have the largest exposure to the strip.
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Apr 20, 2020 05:57
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Yeah, but just because they reopen it doesn't mean people will come rushing, so I wouldn't expect much.
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Apr 20, 2020 06:05
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Reopen the minimal amount to get the table rakes going again.
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Apr 20, 2020 06:18
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I believe very firmly that the american populace, once told they can go do **thing** will rush out and do it with almost no thought for their own wellbeing at all. I believe that this will inevitably result in a terrible second outbreak and after that people will be much more cautious and suspicious of official calls for them to return to normalcy but for right now americans really want to believe that this will be over soon and I have no confidence that your average person is suddenly going to show a high degree of critical thought and cynicism when faced with being told they are allowed to do something they really want to do. Given that I'd honestly much rather we all do the responsible thing and kick this virus once and for all I'm really hoping to be wrong on this one but this is what my gut is telling me to expect. Irrational exuberance and then another crash founded in terror at a curve that we watch cease to flatten in real time and general panic selling as a result.
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Apr 20, 2020 06:22
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Grouchio posted:Does this sound about right? Is the V-shape a fantasy? V shape is a fantasy, but I don't think people are nearly as financially 'ruined' as the author said. quote:We've hollowed the middle class out so thoroughly that after depriving so many people of 4 or 5 weeks of salary they're in no position to start spending again even if they wanted to. The whole "4-5 weeks of no salary thing" completely ignores the stimulus and subsequent (relatively) huge bump in UI insurance, that's running for at least the next 90 days. Define middle class? A large majority of people on UI will be getting roughly 250-300 base + $600/week, which is likely more than a lot of them were making before the outbreak. As he states it, we've 'hollowed them out' which may be true pre-Covid19, but in California if you had average income before the crisis, you're getting $450+$600/week in UI bennies, of which the $600 is tax free, and that's huge. A couple in California making max bennies is getting $8200/mo right now (with about $180 each withheld in taxes) to stay at home and not spend any money, anywhere (other than takeout, basically, and maybe toilet paper if they didn't get a bidet). Car insurance companies are kicking back 25% plus to their clients, student loan payments are deferred through October, and a lot of other payments (car, mortgage, rent) are being negotiated and kicked down the road, in most cases, interest free. Purely anecdotal, but I went to pick up takeout this evening and chatted with the owner who said that they have been swamped since this week, after being completely dead the first few weeks. He said when the enhanced UI and stimulus started coming through (last Sunday) they got busier and are making more money just in takeout (because there's way less overhead) that he's trying to see how he can go about hiring more cooks because while he didn't lay any off, he's thinking he's going to need more help in the next few weeks. The additional UI money is acting as a UBI right now, and to blanket pay it out across all 50 states where the cost of living isn't nearly the same as in California, there are undoubtedly people that are in better financial shape right now than they were only a month ago, and I'd guess getting significantly better as we go forward. Demand is absolutely going to be a coiled spring, and there's more talk of more stimulus daily, with the recent $2k/mo proposal making waves from the same people in California that got to work on the $1200 stimulus. I don't think there's going to be a lack of $$ waiting to be spent, in fact I think the hardest thing is the discussion as to how to end the enhanced UI eventually without raising the minimum wage to $15 after so many people have gotten used to getting quite a bit more money than they were used to. Good luck with that! reignofevil posted:I believe very firmly that the american populace, once told they can go do **thing** will rush out and do it with almost no thought for their own wellbeing at all. I believe that this will inevitably result in a terrible second outbreak and after that people will be much more cautious and suspicious of official calls for them to return to normalcy but for right now americans really want to believe that this will be over soon and I have no confidence that your average person is suddenly going to show a high degree of critical thought and cynicism when faced with being told they are allowed to do something they really want to do. Also this, especially because they'll be funded enough to do it. TheKevman fucked around with this message at 07:40 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 06:47
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^^^ I think that’s an incredibly rosy picture (to the point I had to read your post twice to make sure you weren’t posting ironically), and definitely does not fit what I’m seeing, which is devastation across the board. Consider the fact that a lot of states are already starting to run out of unemployment funds because they never had to plan for so many people applying all at once. After they run out, then what? We will get another stimulus from Congress, yes. After that, nobody knows.
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Apr 20, 2020 07:05
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enraged_camel posted:Consider the fact that a lot of states are already starting to run out of unemployment funds because they never had to plan for so many people applying all at once. After they run out, then what? money printer go brrrr
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Apr 20, 2020 07:28
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enraged_camel posted:^^^ I think that’s an incredibly rosy picture (to the point I had to read your post twice to make sure you weren’t posting ironically), and definitely does not fit what I’m seeing, which is devastation across the board. I don't think it's going to be all perfect by any means, but I think that at the same time, the widespread doom and gloom scenario just doesn't jive either. You're right, I'm being overly rosy, but I also think that there's something to be said for analyzing it from a different angle other than "well, everything's going to hell". I don't think it's going to be nearly as bad as most seem to think it is, but at the same time I definitely don't think it's going to be wonderful, either. UI funds are kicked from feds once states are depleted, aren't they? I wouldn't really worry too much about the cash spigot ever running dry. We've got plenty of examples that that won't be the case. shame on an IGA posted:money printer go brrrr exactly.
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Apr 20, 2020 07:33
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Grouchio posted:Does this sound about right? Is the V-shape a fantasy? For the real economy I think it's far too optimistic. However the share market could easily be a V shaped recovery because with the low interest rates people have nowhere else to put their money that earns any kind of return. There's a lot of people who depend on passive income to get by so they'll be piling back in at the first sniff of good new . There's been far too much money lost for a quick recovery. Heaps of significant business investment that was in the pipeline has been shelved because of a lack of cash (major expansions, building developments etc) and that means a heap of work for a bunch of people no longer exists. The consumer confidence thing has been touched on. I think it's OK while the various UI schemes are still in play but governments are going to start tapering those off at some stage and if the economy can't support the same level of employment as it did beforehand there will be big problems with spending. You probably have a significant number of people who are still employed but have taken a decent pay cut to stay that way, which also impacts consumer spending. It's probably worth pointing out that while some businesses might be doing ok, there's a whole lot that just got shut down completely and a large number of those will not re-open. This is not in the US (  ) but I'm hearing that there's a lot of small businesses that can't qualify for most of the support packages on offer and are burning through their free cash at a rate that they'll be insolvent soon. Those guys won't have the cash on hand to re-start even if they wanted to.Tourism is a significant contributor to global income and it's going to be out of action until we see some sort of immunity emerge, either a vaccine or enough people catch it. Australia is on the path to eradicating the virus so I can't see us opening the borders to anyone from the plaguelands until they're all vaccinated. Domestic tourism might fill some of that void but it won't completely replace the money bought in by international tourism. That is without touching on the uncertainty around future geopolitical issues that arise out of this and the potential for unwinding globalisation to some extent. Anyway, the ASX has had a few down days in the last week (down 2.5% or so today) so even though we tend to follow the lead of the US market it suggests to me there's a bit of negative sentiment starting to set in as people realise this isn't going to be as straightforward as they had initially thought.
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Apr 20, 2020 07:33
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shame on an IGA posted:money printer go brrrr You're assuming Trump won't use federal UI funding as leverage over states to get them to re-open
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Apr 20, 2020 07:34
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gay picnic defence posted:You're assuming Trump won't use federal UI funding as leverage over states to get them to re-open 25th amendment, go!
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Apr 20, 2020 07:36
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money printer go brrrr in red states
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Apr 20, 2020 07:42
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People have just started talking about all this money as if there is no concern or consideration to what creating money to prop up a completely dead economy even means for the fiat philosophy. Its just like “well everyones gonna have money, maybe more money than before, and theyre not even gonna be working or producing anything so lets just fuckin rally i guess” 09 worked because the money stayed out of general circulation and was essentially a magic trick performed on bank balance sheets... what does it mean to print and start passing out a trillion+ dollars to consumers? How far can this system be pushed before it breaks? Id certainly be focusing on hard assets going into this.
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Apr 20, 2020 07:42
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greasyhands posted:what does it mean to print and start passing out a trillion+ dollars to consumers? How far can this system be pushed before it breaks?
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Apr 20, 2020 07:44
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greasyhands posted:People have just started talking about all this money as if there is no concern or consideration to what creating money to prop up a completely dead economy even means for the fiat philosophy. Its just like “well everyones gonna have money, maybe more money than before, and theyre not even gonna be working or producing anything so lets just fuckin rally i guess” 09 worked because the money stayed out of general circulation and was essentially a magic trick performed on bank balance sheets... what does it mean to print and start passing out a trillion+ dollars to consumers? How far can this system be pushed before it breaks? Id certainly be focusing on hard assets going into this. Effectively shareholder dillution of the US dollar which would be worst for ...*checks notes* debt owners and the hyperwealthy. I'm down.
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Apr 20, 2020 07:54
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shame on an IGA posted:Effectively shareholder dillution of the US dollar which would be worst for ...*checks notes* debt owners and the hyperwealthy. I'm down. hahaha 
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Apr 20, 2020 07:56
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Grouchio posted:Is that even what (the feds) are doing right now? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-stimulus-package-pay-united-states/ Thats a pretty straightforward FAQ about this whole thing. Some people use the term “printing” to mena both the physical act of printing and also creating “dollar credits” on a balance sheet... because, i dunno, i guess its reasonable to say if a dollar is on a balance sheet it must exist, even if it was never physically printed. Youll have to form your own opinion on that little nuance, i guess shame on an IGA posted:Effectively shareholder dillution of the US dollar which would be worst for ...*checks notes* debt owners and the hyperwealthy. I'm down. The fed is buying up corporate bonds and high yield debt on the secondary market... the hyperwealthy are once again having their failed risk taking absorbed by the public system, so im not sure where your wishful thinking comes from. The fed buying poo poo tier bonds that are going to default is significantly different than it buying us treasuries and playing hide the salami with the money supply greasyhands fucked around with this message at 08:26 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 07:58
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Generally, the Fed's money (or any tax break) that goes to rich people does not really affect inflation rates or help the economy, but sometimes affects the dollar's performance (alongside a billion other things). The Fed's money printer will never affect you directly outside of interest rates and other people speculating on what Fed movement means for the markets. Until they start buying lots and lots of stocks!
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Apr 20, 2020 08:27
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I just spent a shitload of money on smallcap inverse leveraged ETFs so bqhatever ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Apr 20, 2020 09:23
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lol i thought 16.69 was a comedy answer for oil, and I'm out!
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Apr 20, 2020 09:34
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Australia's second largest airline, Virgin, just entered voluntary administration which I think is roughly the equivalent of a Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in the US. https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/virgin-australia-set-for-voluntary-administration-20200420-p54lcd.html It probably won't have much direct impact on anything outside of Australia but it's starting to feel like this thing is starting to bite.
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Apr 20, 2020 10:18
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jokes posted:Generally, the Fed's money (or any tax break) that goes to rich people does not really affect inflation rates or help the economy, but sometimes affects the dollar's performance (alongside a billion other things). The Fed's money printer will never affect you directly outside of interest rates and other people speculating on what Fed movement means for the markets. Its simply remarkable that you can will yourself to believe this with a sample size of 1 (2009 and the QE that followed). 09 was significantly different in that most of the money was specifically designed to *not* make it into general circulation, whereas this time the opposite is true. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 10:22 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 10:19
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