|
Cheesemaster200 posted:So Saudi Aramco filed for an IPO in December 2019, but only made 1.5% of the shares public. The Saudi Government then thought it would be a good idea to start a price war to flush out competitors. Unfortunately they decided to do all this right before a global pandemic that essentially halved global oil demand. My gut feeling is that they’ll wear a short term hit quite happily if it means US shale companies are driven out of the market for a decade. They have the perfect opportunity to gently caress them over, why waste it? It’s never been cheaper for nations to borrow money so I’m not sure they’d be all that concerned about having to borrow for six months or so until they’ve wiped out most of their competition.
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 05:56 |
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:My gut feeling is that they’ll wear a short term hit quite happily if it means US shale companies are driven out of the market for a decade. They have the perfect opportunity to gently caress them over, why waste it? It’s never been cheaper for nations to borrow money so I’m not sure they’d be all that concerned about having to borrow for six months or so until they’ve wiped out most of their competition. What makes you think this will last for only six months and that shale drillers will be driven out of the market for a decade? Oil prices weren't exactly strong going into this, and a global recession could be pronounced. The move away from oil is also progressing ever forward, albeit slowly. They risk facing the ire of our esteemed commander in chief, who is now threatening to block Saudi oil imports. That would put a damper on their goals of increasing market share from upstarts.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 01:52
|
|
|
We import ~400k/barrels a day from the Saudis: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttimussa2&f=m ...it probably mostly goes to their Port Arthur refinery and some of that will get re-exported They produce 10m barrels/day, so we're only 4% of their current market. If TRRRRMP throws a fit, they can find another buyer for a while. Oil is fungible. It is kind of amazing seeing him possibly destroy a strategic alliance that has lasted for about 45 years. I figured he'd just grift on hotel/condo deals with them.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:03
|
|
|
Trump is a loving moron that has less than zero clue about geopolitics and the moment someone with
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:07
|
|
|
wanna see a superbad nuclear hot take? https://twitter.com/PortfolioGuru/status/1252256435293040640?s=20 "The culprit here is obvious. The United States Oil ETF, USO." "ETFs like USO are not created to take physical delivery of the oil contracts they hold, so in a long squeeze, the fund’s managers—USO’s general partner/sponsor is U.S. Commodity Funds, LLC (USCF) and, according to an 8-K filed on March 30th, the administration of USO will transition from Brown Brothers Harriman to Bank of New York Mellon, although it is unclear whether that change has been fully implemented—have to dump oil. Regardless of who is doing the selling, front-month futures prices have dropped more than 40% today." of course, USO did the roll days ago, http://www.uscfinvestments.com/resources-filings/commodities/uso and on those high-volume days (as opposed to today's miniscule volume day, 9x lower), /CLK20 was actually very steady in price dude's a moron who claims to be some kind of investing pro that said I think USO is dumb and yes it probably impacts the futures market, but, can't blame it for today edit: hey here's a paper studying the exact impact of the roll on markets https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@economicanalysis/documents/file/oce_predatorysunshine0314.pdf tl;dr no biggie pmchem fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Apr 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:19
|
|
|
pmchem posted:We import ~400k/barrels a day from the Saudis: Is it Trump that is destroying the "alliance" here, or the state which continues to manipulate the world oil markets during a global crisis in order to push its own position in the commodity markets? The term "strategic alliance" has always been a bit of a stretch when it has come to the Saudis. It was strategic because they supplied us the oil we needed, but only when they felt like it. If we can look past our disdain about Trump for a second (I know, its hard), I don't think the Saudis are playing a game they will win in the long run. This seems out of their playbook from the 80s. They have been getting progressively pushed out of the US market for the past few years, and this would be the nail in the coffin as they become increasingly persona non grata in western markets.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:23
|
|
|
Still super mad I didn’t buy spy calls today
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:26
|
|
|
pmchem posted:wanna see a superbad nuclear hot take? As you've probably guessed, it doesn't take anything to be a "Forbes Contributor". It's their equivalent of Youtube comments.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:29
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Is it Trump that is destroying the "alliance" here, or the state which continues to manipulate the world oil markets during a global crisis in order to push its own position in the commodity markets? The term "strategic alliance" has always been a bit of a stretch when it has come to the Saudis. It was strategic because they supplied us the oil we needed, but only when they felt like it. I'm happy to blame both sides, MBS is a moron and a terrible human being. But the alliance was more than just getting oil from them, they spent a lot of $$$ with us too, and have been politically helpful in the region. Plus, bases. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Oil_embargo_and_energy_crises I can't/won't defend their culture, and, frankly, would be happy if we were 100% out of the middle east. But, given the state of affairs pre-2016 they were a friend. That's in jeopardy now. It's unexpected to me given how MBS and Kush are 'buddies' and they're all generally corrupt people.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:30
|
|
|
In case someone has a crystal ball and knows whether USO will become insolvent, it's underwriter is bank of New York melon BK. USO asset is currently about 5B so which is equivalent to BK annual gross income. So buy puts on BK?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 02:55
|
|
|
lostleaf posted:In case someone has a crystal ball and knows whether USO will become insolvent, it's underwriter is bank of New York melon BK. USO asset is currently about 5B so which is equivalent to BK annual gross income. So buy puts on BK? It's not going to go insolvent because oil is always going to be a commodity and MM will never let it go to zero when they can take profits off the trades.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 03:08
|
|
|
How do I buy puts on all of Texas?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 03:13
|
|
|
don't go long horns
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 03:17
|
|
|
VelociBacon posted:It's not going to go insolvent because oil is always going to be a commodity and MM will never let it go to zero when they can take profits off the trades. And Thats Why Its So EffectiveTM.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 03:25
|
|
|
shame on an IGA posted:don't go long horns 
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 04:52
|
|
|
Oscar Wild posted:Real estate is leveraged buying though. It would more be like if you took the worlds worst retail investor and set him on only leveraged etf daytrading. One position or market implosion and you're wiped out. Leveraged without recourse! Except the casinos, those he personally guaranteed and took them public so he could refinance away the personal guarantee before they imploded. Inheriting what he did before a decades long bull run in NYC real estate and wasting it on casinos and golf courses when he could have been a generic landlord with an extra zero on his net worth.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 04:57
|
|
|
Its kinda cute watching the Saudis kill the market when American bankruptcy law will basically be able to keep a threat of an additional supplier alive longer than a Saudi appetite for $25 oil.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 05:07
|
|
|
Oscar Wild posted:Its kinda cute watching the Saudis kill the market when American bankruptcy law will basically be able to keep a threat of an additional supplier alive longer than a Saudi appetite for $25 oil. True, that fracking equipment can sit in a yard gathering dust just fine, some talent erosion will probably happen though as skilled people leave the industry. Even if it gets sold at auction, a new, lower cost service provider was just created in the form of the buyer.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 05:14
|
|
|
I’m staying the gently caress away from oil. I don’t know anything about the market. I might buy XOM or CVX in August/September timeframe if they get beaten down some more.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 05:49
|
|
|
Omerta posted:I’m staying the gently caress away from oil. I don’t know anything about the market. I might buy XOM or CVX in August/September timeframe if they get beaten down some more. Oil is so messed up right now. It's trading at $1 right now. If it goes back to where it was this morning you can 10x your investment. If it goes down to where it was at the low, you can -40x your investment.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 06:38
|
|
|
Agronox posted:Just to follow up... which ones are you in? Turned into a good day for team tanker. NAT and ADS Crude Carriers (the latter trading only in Norway I think). Before the weekend I sold Frontline, Okeanis and Hunter Group. But it wasn't that big to begin with so I didn't miss out on a lot of gains. I sold NAT too at around 15% up. Tankers have been so volatile even if the case was apparently so good, I thought it was best to sell the rip. Might go back in today, but knowing my luck, it will now be a straight climb with no dips into their dividend ex dates. 
Ola fucked around with this message at 07:00 on Apr 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 06:43
|
|
|
ketchup vs catsup posted:Fuuuuuuuuck I forgot to buy SPY calls before close. good news! they're cheaper this morning
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 11:51
|
|
|
Might be an overreaction play on $SCYX this morning. https://newsfilter.io/a/21173a31033e54629d297b2970d37bcd
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:07
|
|
|
Watch GLD. A lot of people making GBS threads on it right now because commodity firms might have to sell their GLD to raise cash after meltdown elsewhere
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:14
|
|
|
I see the uso contract rollover is going smooth, with a solid -20% open.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:22
|
|
|
Trump inevitably intervening on oil going to do anything?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:26
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1252574224763453440?s=19 What is this besides a pump
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:27
|
|
|
Hit Man posted:Trump inevitably intervening on oil going to do anything? Well, I don't want to ever suggest Trump won't try some crazy poo poo, but this is an issue of storage. Maybe he starts filling Yucca Mountain with oil or something, but otherwise there really ain't much he can do.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:35
|
|
|
reignofevil posted:Well, I don't want to ever suggest Trump won't try some crazy poo poo, but this is an issue of storage. Maybe he starts filling Yucca Mountain with oil or something, but otherwise there really ain't much he can do. Start a war against Russia and Saudi Arabia perhaps, that should do the trick.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:37
|
|
|
Ola posted:NAT and ADS Crude Carriers (the latter trading only in Norway I think). Before the weekend I sold Frontline, Okeanis and Hunter Group. But it wasn't that big to begin with so I didn't miss out on a lot of gains. Thanks, I take it you read Joakim Hannisdahl for the ADS rec? I hadn't heard of that one otherwise. NAT is funny. I own a bit too and think it's pretty much the worst of the bunch--old-rear end ships, stock promoters as management--so of course yesterday it's up the most of any of them.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:37
|
|
|
2750 on futures has been a popular support level in the recent past. Put in some calls on /ES for the day but will close them out if we hit 2740
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:41
|
|
|
Well, so far I'm only down 27% on USO. I'll just continue to hold it until the end of time, I guess.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:43
|
|
|
fougera posted:Watch GLD. A lot of people making GBS threads on it right now because commodity firms might have to sell their GLD to raise cash after meltdown elsewhere So you're thinking of avoiding it, or buying some on the dip?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:46
|
|
|
I've still got my edit: 
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:51
|
|
|
VIX approaching 50 again is a little worrisome. I guess we've seen the near-term peak, and it was the SPY 200d SMA. edit: hoo boy, June WTI might hit single digits TODAY pmchem fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Apr 21, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:55
|
|
|
Agronox posted:Thanks, I take it you read Joakim Hannisdahl for the ADS rec? I hadn't heard of that one otherwise. I started following him on twitter recently, but I picked up ADS from this wretched hive of scum and villainy, a Norwegian discussion forum: https://finansavisen.no/forum/ I think there are two aspects to this, the stock price as people rush into the trade (NAT probably shows up first if you search for "tanker") and the dividend payouts. The price will drop hard once the contango evens out, but it might still yield well after that. But will one compensate for another? Not sure which scenario I have the most stomach for, but I'm back in with slightly smaller positions, hopefully I can be a bit more brave now and buy some dips if we get some tweets or whatnot. And yes, NAT seems like the rattiest of tanker companies. I think the CEOs wall art says enough:  Not back in it, sucks missing most of that rip.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:59
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1252581236469575681
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 13:59
|
|
|
Seems bad?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 14:05
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1252584073782013957 No idea what it means but it seems important.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 14:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 05:56 |
|
|
Agronox posted:I'm shorting USO. If May oil is cheaper than free I don't think June oil is worth $21. omg nailed it USO -20% SCO +40% drat too easy  cover that poo poo before they close the ETF down lol
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2020 14:07
|
|