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Vancouver: No Housing? Let Them Eat Lotuses This is an older article, but drat is it poignant.
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Aug 7, 2014 23:00
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Cultural Imperial posted:https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/497461141443207170 Have there been any good historical examples of a "soft landing"?
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Aug 7, 2014 23:13
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Rime posted:Vancouver: No Housing? Let Them Eat Lotuses quote:If Vancouver is just a lotus land, and just the geographic end of the line for those who would seek to roam, and for those in the rest of Canada who would seek to run away from their pasts, their families, and their memories, Vancouver is bound to fail at anything more worthy than the pursuit of pleasure and the pursuit of appearances. Yeah, he has our number. 
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Aug 7, 2014 23:35
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Rime posted:Vancouver: No Housing? Let Them Eat Lotuses quote:
loving owned E: fantastic find rime. namaste friends fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Aug 8, 2014 |
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Aug 8, 2014 01:22
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peter banana posted:Have there been any good historical examples of a "soft landing"? Good question. I don't know.
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Aug 8, 2014 01:23
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peter banana posted:Have there been any good historical examples of a "soft landing"? Well Japan had a asset bubble deflation after their miracle economy burned out. From history bubbles tend to end in tears more often than not as seen in things like the tulip craze or South Sea company. Robert Shiller wrote a cool book on the subject: http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634
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Aug 8, 2014 01:28
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etalian posted:Well Japan had a asset bubble deflation after their miracle economy burned out. I think Japan was actually a bubble pop and crash, followed by 20 years of soft landing. e: still floating to the ground it is so soft
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Aug 8, 2014 05:35
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Rime posted:Vancouver: No Housing? Let Them Eat Lotuses Loved the article in many ways Vancouver reminds me of SF especially the whole ostrich approach to real ugly problems like homelessness and also housing affordability.
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Aug 8, 2014 05:40
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peter banana posted:Well, it depends where you are and what you want to grow. Even then what has been grown on the land previously will have as much if not more of an effect than topography. If you want an organic vegetable CSA and your land has been cash-cropped with RoundUp Ready soy for 10 years, forget it or be prepared to spend another 10 rebuilding those nutrients. Livestock or hilariously misguided "horse farms", which I see everywhere in Ontario, are a much better option. I had a family member who was the largest single producer for the Leamington plant. The closure means that some of the most valuable and high-nutrient farmland in southwestern Ontario just became a lot less valuable. Most people that own it are switching to other high-intensity crops (tomatoes are extremely nutrient intensive) but it's a big blow. It's probably a significant contributor to why the wind tower companies were so successful along the stretch of the 401 from Windsor to London; lots of farmers looking for alternative income sources in an area that would have traditionally had 'no windmills' signs on the mailboxes.
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Aug 8, 2014 08:27
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ocrumsprug posted:I think Japan was actually a bubble pop and crash, followed by 20 years of soft landing. 
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Aug 8, 2014 12:22
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https://businessincanada.com/2014/08/08/weak-canadian-job-creation-continues-in-july/quote:
Holla jobless muthafuckaz in da hoooouuuse
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Aug 8, 2014 14:50
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Did someone say bubble pop http://youtu.be/bw9CALKOvAI
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Aug 8, 2014 15:15
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Cultural Imperial posted:https://businessincanada.com/2014/08/08/weak-canadian-job-creation-continues-in-july/ I love the "participation rate" statistic. A nice safety valve to make sure the Unemployment Rate doesn't get to scary looking.
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Aug 8, 2014 15:16
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You know I'm still not sure this is going to affect the housing market. The propensity of Canadians to keep buying dumb poo poo on credit has proven to sustain itself. So shut up the bubble talk jealous renters!! E: my neighbourhood in Vancouver is filled with hootsuite employees making 60k a year filled with pride of ownership. If high ltv won't discourage these loving idiots from buying, what's a little unemployment? namaste friends fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Aug 8, 2014 |
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Aug 8, 2014 15:19
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Cultural Imperial posted:pride of ownership I audibly chuckle every time I read this most-favoured punctuatative phrase of yours 
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Aug 8, 2014 15:29
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Re employment. https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/497756814977794048 quote:
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Aug 8, 2014 15:54
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So what is Ben Rabidoux implicitly suggesting here? What would the policy response be? More bond buying?
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Aug 8, 2014 16:34
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Lexicon posted:So what is Ben Rabidoux implicitly suggesting here? What would the policy response be? More bond buying? I think it's just Ben suggesting that Canadians are too apathetic or ignorant to realize there's a serious problem here. Luke Kawa is saying we better hope the us economy picks up the recovery pace or else we are screwed.
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Aug 8, 2014 16:38
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Cultural Imperial posted:I think it's just Ben suggesting that Canadians are too apathetic or ignorant to realize there's a serious problem here. Luke Kawa is saying we better hope the us economy picks up the recovery pace or else we are screwed. It was just two pages back that a report was posted that Canadians were bearish about the economy, but bullish on real estate. Paying close attention does not appear to be a strong point for a lot of us.
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Aug 8, 2014 16:45
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peter banana posted:Have there been any good historical examples of a "soft landing"? 
LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Aug 8, 2014 |
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Aug 8, 2014 16:50
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ocrumsprug posted:It was just two pages back that a report was posted that Canadians were bearish about the economy, but bullish on real estate. Paying close attention does not appear to be a strong point for a lot of us. You know what makes this more crazy? Construction was the biggest loser with 42k jobs lost.
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Aug 8, 2014 16:59
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A soft landing would still mean people massively overpaying for houses while I enjoyed many years of artificially low rents.
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Aug 8, 2014 17:01
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ocrumsprug posted:It was just two pages back that a report was posted that Canadians were bearish about the economy, but bullish on real estate. Paying close attention does not appear to be a strong point for a lot of us. A lot of people have been told that real estate always goes up, and for a lot of the younger crowd, that's been true for their entire life. God doesn't make any more land and all that, yadda yadda yadda. Plus real estate is a lot easier to understand than the stock market - People need houses to live in, value of house always goes up because it always does. So if you approach it from that perspective, it makes a lot of sense to pull your money from long term investments, that are subject to economic fluctuation, and stick them into real estate, which always goes up. Because real estate always goes up.
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Aug 8, 2014 17:05
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^^^ There's an argument to be made that those Euro markets are just in the calm before the storm though. Cultural Imperial posted:You know what makes this more crazy? Construction was the biggest loser with 42k jobs lost. Well you see that explains the bullish sentiment on real estate then. They have stopped building homes, so you better buy now if you don't want to have to live in a refrigerator box.
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Aug 8, 2014 17:05
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Franks Happy Place posted:A soft landing would still mean people massively overpaying for houses while I enjoyed many years of artificially low rents. How do you figure the 'artificially low rents' part? Rents generally seem to track incomes and property supply rather than house prices, so a high house price:rent ratio doesn't necessarily mean that rents are artificially low... LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Aug 8, 2014 |
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Aug 8, 2014 17:10
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Yeah, if anything, rents are likely to go through the roof as the chucklefucks who overpaid attempt to leverage public desperation to pay off their mortgage.
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Aug 8, 2014 17:16
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Rime posted:Yeah, if anything, rents are likely to go through the roof as the chucklefucks who overpaid attempt to leverage public desperation to pay off their mortgage. More rental stock won't drive prices up. They may "need" X rent a month but they won't get it from the local rental market. I've already begun to see this in Victoria, people desperately renting out their 2nd "investment" house for way less than the mortgage because they have no choice, because their granite countertops and stainless appliances didn't boost their sell price up enough and now they're renting at a loss to wait for a better time to sell. Know a couple people who were renting ok apartments but always wanted a house/yard and now have it for just a few hundred more a month. The landlord both tell sob stories about how the market is so hosed and unfair and no one is willing to pay the rent the place is "worth". These people make HORRIBLE landlords though. They're renting at a loss so they flip out at any outlay for upkeep and you know they're going to sell the moment they can so there's no real stability. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Aug 8, 2014 |
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Aug 8, 2014 17:17
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Cultural Imperial posted:
You bet it is: from http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/08/07/the-melt/: quote:But it could be worse. It could be Saskatoon.
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Aug 8, 2014 20:10
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Rime posted:Yeah, if anything, rents are likely to go through the roof as the chucklefucks who overpaid attempt to leverage public desperation to pay off their mortgage. Rent tracks income because renters usually aren't leveraged to the hilt to pay their rent, and so a landlord isn't going to be able to raise the rent above the ability of the renters to pay it, because they'll just move to a reasonably priced location if the landlord goes off the deep end and demands 50% above market rent. And a tenant letting you rent out at a small loss is better than no tenant and no rental income.
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Aug 8, 2014 20:11
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Baronjutter posted:More rental stock won't drive prices up. They may "need" X rent a month but they won't get it from the local rental market. I've already begun to see this in Victoria, people desperately renting out their 2nd "investment" house for way less than the mortgage because they have no choice, because their granite countertops and stainless appliances didn't boost their sell price up enough and now they're renting at a loss to wait for a better time to sell. Know a couple people who were renting ok apartments but always wanted a house/yard and now have it for just a few hundred more a month. The landlord both tell sob stories about how the market is so hosed and unfair and no one is willing to pay the rent the place is "worth". not sure how it works in BC but in Ontario at least renters have a lot more protection. If a house gets sold and the new buyer is not occupying it him/herself, the tenant doesn't have to vacate until the lease is up.
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Aug 8, 2014 20:20
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peter banana posted:not sure how it works in BC but in Ontario at least renters have a lot more protection. If a house gets sold and the new buyer is not occupying it him/herself, the tenant doesn't have to vacate until the lease is up. That sounds wrong, the lease should be in effect until the end even if the new buyer wants to occupy. In BC if they are month-to-month then the new buyer can force out the tenant if they want to occupy (with something like 2 months notice and the owner paying the last month's rent for the tenant IIRC).
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Aug 8, 2014 20:51
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LemonDrizzle posted:How do you figure the 'artificially low rents' part? Rents generally seem to track incomes and property supply rather than house prices, so a high house price:rent ratio doesn't necessarily mean that rents are artificially low... Like tagesschau said, rents track wages and inflation pretty closely. By "artificially low" I didn't mean "cheaper than they should be", just cheaper than ownership. Nobody renting a house or a condo from the owner is paying off that mortgage, not by a long shot. Are rents too high in Vancouver due to lovely housing policies? Sure. But they're manageable, which is way more than you can say about ownership. I'm saving a nice bit of money and keeping my powder dry; either ownership becomes mathematically logical, I move away from Vancouver and buy elsewhere, or I pick up a nice vacation property somewhere else. The bubble can trundle on, I'm zen.
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Aug 8, 2014 22:07
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Ok, here's a question. A person was complaining to me yesterday that housing prices in Calgary run in the high 200s for Townhouses then jump to the 450s for Houses, with nothing in between. So I checked MLS, and there are houses in that range. House Listings $300,000-350,000 Searching only House and Freehold. But is this a sign of slum neighborhoods in Calgary or is it normal for a City. I would expect a more even distribution across the entire City. The highest concentrations by the way are Falconridge/Martindale/Castleridge which are the "immigrant" areas of the city and 5 in Bowness the "Armpit of Calgary" according to a friend.
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Aug 9, 2014 06:20
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Jonny Nox posted:Ok, here's a question. A person was complaining to me yesterday that housing prices in Calgary run in the high 200s for Townhouses then jump to the 450s for Houses, with nothing in between. So I checked MLS, and there are houses in that range. Well that distribution is indicative of where the cheap housing is in Calgary, and the areas with the cheapest housing tend to have low(ish) property values and are therefore less desirable. But to be honest, there are virtually no places in Calgary that I would describe as a "slum". Sprawling suburban hellholes, yes, but no slums. Edit: As an aside, the house where five people were brutally stabbed in Calgary's worst ever mass murder back in April is now up for sale. It was originally a middle class single family bungalow built in the 60's and is now listed for almost $500k. Even bloody mass homicide isn't enough to stop the speculation. sitchensis fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Aug 9, 2014 |
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Aug 9, 2014 15:22
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blah_blah posted:That sounds wrong, the lease should be in effect until the end even if the new buyer wants to occupy. In BC if they are month-to-month then the new buyer can force out the tenant if they want to occupy (with something like 2 months notice and the owner paying the last month's rent for the tenant IIRC). There's a notice period, not immediate kick-out. Can't remember of its 30 or 60 days for owner occupancy.
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Aug 9, 2014 17:54
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sitchensis posted:Edit: As an aside, the house where five people were brutally stabbed in Calgary's worst ever mass murder back in April is now up for sale. It was originally a middle class single family bungalow built in the 60's and is now listed for almost $500k. Even bloody mass homicide isn't enough to stop the speculation. It seems like only yesterday that such a place would sit unsold for decades, as it slid further and further into disrepair, eventually becoming a homeless squat or something. 
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Aug 9, 2014 18:56
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Kalenn Istarion posted:There's a notice period, not immediate kick-out. Can't remember of its 30 or 60 days for owner occupancy. I'm pretty sure blah blah had it right - two months for month to month plus one month's rent in compensation.
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Aug 9, 2014 19:46
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Lead out in cuffs posted:I'm pretty sure blah blah had it right - two months for month to month plus one month's rent in compensation. They were referring to the BC laws. Ontario is different and has no compensation provision, just a notice period. It's a minimum of 60 days from the end of a month in a month to month lease or the end date of a fixed-term tenancy: http://www.ltb.gov.on.ca/en/Law/116345.html
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Aug 10, 2014 13:25
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You'd think that record sales would be good news, until you dig a bit deeper in to this article:quote:"What is a pleasant reality for buyers is just how many more listings they have to choose from in comparison to other years at this time." So we're seeing a higher supply of listings, more of which are going for less than asking price.
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Aug 10, 2014 23:36
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| # ? May 26, 2024 21:46 |
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Hey looks like vancouver is getting an economy. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/silicon-valley-north-vancouver-tech-surges-as-u-s-immigration-reform-idles-1.2732667 quote:Software engineer Pablo Guana nearly refused a job with Facebook when the company redirected him to Vancouver from Silicon Valley because his United States visa application was rejected. shut the gently caress up ryan holmes you dumb oval office Looking for a high paying 60k/year job? come to vancouver assholes
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Aug 11, 2014 03:03
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