Fantasy Football 2017: Advice [Q], Success [D]

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2017: Advice [Q], Success [D]

«‹›308 »

bird with big dick: Oct 21, 2015

3 DONG HORSE posted:

I enjoy your site, dudes. Good stuff.

I think a hot take fantasy bad advice column run by a terrible person would be amazing

I could be this person.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:09

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 6, 2024 16:51

bird with big dick: Oct 21, 2015

Is it worth dropping Blount or Latavius or Elijah McGuire or Crowder for Kroft (1ppr).

I've got Rudolph and his most recent good game hasn't made up for his three previous poo poo games

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:14

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Sataere posted:

So as many of you guys know, Spoeank, Drunk Nerds and myself have started a football and fantasy football website. At the moment, our focus is fantasy football and making fun of everyone and everything.

What I'm wondering is what type of content would you guys be looking for that you feel isn't out there. We have an idea of what we would want, but I'm very curious about where you might feel there is a dearth of content.

Round table discussions/debates on certain players who always flutter on the edge of sit or start or in terms of ROS are always in the low end RB/WR1 or edge of RB/WR2. I'm tired of reading predictions where 3 people say the same thing.

A good example would be the Ty Mont discussion in here. Throw a player from each position out each week and then have all 4 writers debate it put into a conversation style format or something along those lines.

The "experts" always pull 2 tidbits to make their point and it would be nice having some one pop in and be like oh wait a minute.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:25

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

scrubs season six posted:

Is it worth dropping Blount or Latavius or Elijah McGuire or Crowder for Kroft (1ppr).

I've got Rudolph and his most recent good game hasn't made up for his three previous poo poo games

Not yet. See if Rudolph has another decent week before going for Kroft. Besides Kroft is on a bye anyways.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:26

Zauper: Aug 21, 2008

Butter Hole posted:

You're right but was anyone really reaching on Eifert??

One thing I realized this year was that if you draft a tight end early (like Gronk or Kelce) and they get hurt, it has a bigger impact on your team than if an early pick WR or RB goes down. If David Johnson goes down you can probably find someone like Aaron Jones or Buck Allen or something to slot in over him that will still get decent points, but tight ends you have to replace with another TE, and that drop-off is STEEP for the top guys. It may seem obvious to to you guys but I hadn't really considered this angle before.

I actually think I disagree with this logic.

Let's look at RBs! Last year, DJ was RB1 and put up 377 points in 0.5 PPR. Let's say we could reasonable expect someone around... RB24? to be on waivers? That's bottom RB2/high RB3 territory. That sounds about right, most leagues run 2RB. That's good for ~150 points last season, a 227 point dropoff (~13 points/game lost).

Kelce was TE1 with 180 points. Most teams aren't rostering 2 TEs, so let's say TE13 is available on waivers? That's 120 points, a 60 point dropoff (~4 points/game).

WR looks like a 6-7 point/game dropoff.

You should be looking to draft the player with the highest expected VAR on your team, and part of figuring that out is determining how well you can do on replacement. If you can stream TEs and that gives you say TE6 on average, that really deflates the value of landing TE1. You can't effectively stream WR/RB, which is why I prefer to draft them over TE/etc. But ultimately the focus should be on the unique value - after say RB16 and WR16ish are taken, the next RB/WR off the board has nearly the same value as that one and value has really plateaued. You may find that if Kelce/Gronk/whoever is still on the board, you get more VAR from them than you do from another RB/WR.

The dropoff being steep is a thing that says 'wow, getting an injury here sure sucks', but it doesn't make the pick worse -- it probably makes the pick better (assuming you appropriately factor injury risk and never draft jordan reed)

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:39

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/252334/amari-cooper-the-football-will-eventually-find-me

There is HOPE!!!

I hope it continues to find him and then falls to the ground like usual since I traded him away this week.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:52

AnacondaHL: Feb 15, 2009; I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

Alfalfa posted:

Not yet. See if Rudolph has another decent week before going for Kroft. Besides Kroft is on a bye anyways.

I wouldn't hold my breath on Rudolph this week, as GB gives up very few points to TE (and defends passes out of the backfield well too).

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:53

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I was thinking of sending out some buy low offers for Amari Cooper. Is offering Garcon or Landry a good place to start? I'm not looking to give up anyone of value, just hoping to cash in on a panicking Cooper owner for a lottery ticket to stash on my bench.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 20:58

Butter Hole: Dec 8, 2011

Zauper posted:

I actually think I disagree with this logic.

Let's look at RBs! Last year, DJ was RB1 and put up 377 points in 0.5 PPR. Let's say we could reasonable expect someone around... RB24? to be on waivers? That's bottom RB2/high RB3 territory. That sounds about right, most leagues run 2RB. That's good for ~150 points last season, a 227 point dropoff (~13 points/game lost).

Kelce was TE1 with 180 points. Most teams aren't rostering 2 TEs, so let's say TE13 is available on waivers? That's 120 points, a 60 point dropoff (~4 points/game).

WR looks like a 6-7 point/game dropoff.

You should be looking to draft the player with the highest expected VAR on your team, and part of figuring that out is determining how well you can do on replacement. If you can stream TEs and that gives you say TE6 on average, that really deflates the value of landing TE1. You can't effectively stream WR/RB, which is why I prefer to draft them over TE/etc. But ultimately the focus should be on the unique value - after say RB16 and WR16ish are taken, the next RB/WR off the board has nearly the same value as that one and value has really plateaued. You may find that if Kelce/Gronk/whoever is still on the board, you get more VAR from them than you do from another RB/WR.

The dropoff being steep is a thing that says 'wow, getting an injury here sure sucks', but it doesn't make the pick worse -- it probably makes the pick better (assuming you appropriately factor injury risk and never draft jordan reed)

I don't want to go on a huge derail but I'm assuming that you drafted properly and have some WR/RB depth on your bench in this scenario. You probably can get that 24th ranked guy on waivers but chances are you have someone better on your bench at RB/WR if you got some late-round value. At any rate, you're not taking a TE first overall, so maybe DJ was a bad player to use as an example.

I still think you are at a big advantage if you land a stud TE in the early rounds, but only if they stay healthy and don't bust. Once that happens it can become a big disadvantage. It's kind of a high-risk high-reward play. I guess you gotta swing for the fences sometimes if you wanna bring home the trophy, though. And there are no hard-rules in fantasy, obviously if you adjust your draft strategy based on what's happening.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:01

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

AnacondaHL posted:

I wouldn't hold my breath on Rudolph this week, as GB gives up very few points to TE (and defends passes out of the backfield well too).

Oh not me personally. I dropped him for ASJ last week so of course he's going to go off now.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:03

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

RCarr posted:

I was thinking of sending out some buy low offers for Amari Cooper. Is offering Garcon or Landry a good place to start? I'm not looking to give up anyone of value, just hoping to cash in on a panicking Cooper owner for a lottery ticket to stash on my bench.

I just traded away Cooper & Gillislee for Garcon and Cousins (I desperately needed a qb since Luck is dead) so I think that's a good starting place.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:03

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

"The ball will eventually find me" doesn't inspire more confidence than "I need to wrap my ten phalanges around the spherically-obloid object that is rotating around the horizontal axis while traveling towards me at a high velocity". Which is what I expected him to say.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:06

Drunk Nerds: Jan 25, 2011; Just close your eyes; Fun Shoe

3 DONG HORSE posted:

I enjoy your site, dudes. Good stuff.

I think a hot take fantasy bad advice column run by a terrible person would be amazing

Thanks for the feedback! Hmmm, I wonder if we have a terrible person that could write this.

Zauper posted:

I feel like there's a dearth of in-depth pieces that look at stats and compare players, particularly if we're talking about start of season or midseason adds. The pieces that explain why they think you should add player x over player y usually focus on opportunity -- which is very important -- over skill. Here we are looking at Ty Montgomery's stats from PFF as we talk on SA, but I feel like in draft prep stuff you never would have found that kind of detail about why you might prefer player A to player B.

Wow this was great input, thanks. I know that Spoeank has this crazy deep project he's working on that will provide a lot of metrics like this, but that won't be ready until I think the offseason.

Leperflesh posted:

I wanna be delicate here, but uh, your writers are... varied... in talent. Like... this is not comedy. Most of those facts are boring, a few are slightly interesting, and as an aside, constantly citing (the same) source for widely-available information is repetitive, jarring, and unnecessary. The only humor is in the image captions, and it's pretty lame. A quick survey of this probably very nice person who I would really like in real life is that all of his articles are unfunny and mostly also boring. I'm sorry evanhoovler if you're reading this but maybe you can be the guy who writes the serious articles for the site? Basically, a site with ten contributors can carry one who is struggling for a while, but when it's a third of your content, you're in deep trouble.

This whole post was filled with very helpful information that we will definitely be looking to implement over the coming months. Thanks a bunch! I guess I could take a back seat and "reload" my joke-making bag: I did 60-hours a week writing jokes for money in September, as opposed to my usual 30-40 hour paid writing weeks, and I bet I cashed out of all my good ideas. Plus, our injury report guest writers really seem to be popular and humorous, so they've got the funny stuff covered for now.

Zauper posted:

From my perspective, it's less ROS (or even next 4 weeks); while those are helpful, to me it's more about the logic.

This post was also filled with great technical stuff. We will be going over everything you suggested, thanks!

Alfalfa posted:

Round table discussions/debates on certain players who always flutter on the edge of sit or start or in terms of ROS are always in the low end RB/WR1 or edge of RB/WR2. I'm tired of reading predictions where 3 people say the same thing.

A good example would be the Ty Mont discussion in here. Throw a player from each position out each week and then have all 4 writers debate it put into a conversation style format or something along those lines.

The "experts" always pull 2 tidbits to make their point and it would be nice having some one pop in and be like oh wait a minute.

Oh yah, this is a great idea. We've had animated discussions every day in our "work" chat, would be nice to turn that into articles that help people. Thanks!

For the people who suggested they wanted to write, love the interest! Keep in mind we won't have a budget to pay people for at least this year (we're all doing this for free too), but polish up your articles if you, like us, just love writing about football for the hell of it, because I suspect we'll be in touch soon when we need a few guest contributors.

Waleed is trying something slightly different in today's fantasy football trades article
Chris Thompson or Mike Gillislee
Start or Sit Crowell, Duke JJ

Also, for fans of our humor, keep an eye out for Thursday Night Farceball and a Halloween-themed giant list of team names, coming in the next 24 hours.

Thanks, everyone! Being able to interact with people and get good critical feedback is one of the main reasons I wanted to branch out to a more fan-interactive medium. Also I think goons are insightful and direct, unlike a lot of the comments I get on other sites I write for.

Edit: Oh and streamers: QB streamers RB Streamers

Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Oct 12, 2017

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:40

pubic works project: Jan 28, 2005; No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

Zeke's suspension just got reinstated.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:43

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005; Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

Morris or McFadden?

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:47

pubic works project: Jan 28, 2005; No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

SHOAH NUFF posted:

Morris or McFadden?

Considering McFadden hasn't seen the field, I grabbed Morris in both of my leagues.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:48

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

pubic works project posted:

Zeke's suspension just got reinstated.

gently caress you Goodell, I've already lost Dalvin Cook & OBJ on the same team in consecutive weeks, why are you doing this to me??

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:48

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

pubic works project posted:

Considering McFadden hasn't seen the field, I grabbed Morris in both of my leagues.

I went McFadden for the same reason. He's been shelved because he offers no change of pace to zeke and they didn't want McFadden getting injured so they kept him on ice.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:53

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

gently caress yes got Morris in every league.

Would you drop Powell for McFadden just in case?

EDIT: gently caress it, I did. Forte is healthy and Elijah is going to muddle the gently caress out of that backfield.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Oct 12, 2017

# ? Oct 12, 2017 21:54

pubic works project: Jan 28, 2005; No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

Spoeank posted:

I went McFadden for the same reason. He's been shelved because he offers no change of pace to zeke and they didn't want McFadden getting injured so they kept him on ice.

And of course this is what's going to happen. Dammit.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:02

Chernabog: Apr 16, 2007

I grabbed McFadden but I don't really have space to grab Morris :ohdear:

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:03

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

RVProfootballer posted:

Paul Perkins, Alex Collins/Terrance West, Jeremy Hill, Latavius Murray, Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy would like a word with you! (Also maybe add 2017 Adrian Peterson, 2017 Marshawn Lynch, and Rob Kelley to this list)

Fair enough if you think Montgomery is worse than some of these guys, but "by a wide margin" is lol. Also your reasoning is real dumb, even if you're right in your judgment, as Montgomery literally led the league in yards after contact last year and was third in forced tackles per touch (on just 70ish carries, though, so small sample size caveat).

Color me wrong then. It is PFF stats and small sample size but every time I watch him I feel like he's completely ineffectual as a RB

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:04

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I'll cast my vote for a value-sucking committee between Morris, McFadden, and even a bit of Rod Smith that renders Morris and McFadden flexes at best and makes all of sad.

And of course I still added both wherever I could!

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:08

Alfalfa: Apr 24, 2003; Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

I dropped Elijah for Morris. Here's hoping

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:10

Jota: May 6, 2003; uga-booga uga-booga

SHOAH NUFF posted:

Morris or McFadden?

Josh Gordon

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

the zeke owner who didn't back him up sent out a profanity laced tirade to the league because one owner snapped up Alf and I grabbed DMC.

Back up your dude next time bruv.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:18

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Got Morris+DMC in one, DMC in another, and Morris in the last, all without dropping anyone valuable :toot:

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:23

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Spoeank posted:

the zeke owner who didn't back him up sent out a profanity laced tirade to the league because one owner snapped up Alf and I grabbed DMC.

Back up your dude next time bruv.

Now send him a trade request of McFadden for his best WR.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:26

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Spoeank posted:

the zeke owner who didn't back him up sent out a profanity laced tirade to the league because one owner snapped up Alf and I grabbed DMC.

Back up your dude next time bruv.

Change your team name to To Die To Zeke, No More

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:26

Chernabog: Apr 16, 2007

I would have needed to drop Willie Snead or Cooper to grab both and I wasn't ready to do that. But somebody already grabbed Morris so I don't have to chose anyway.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:27

a patagonian cavy: Jan 12, 2009; UUA CVG 230000 KZID /RM TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE BENGALS DYNASTY

Given that my current receivers are Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey, and Taylor Gabriel, is it worth dropping one of them and burning high waiver priority for Paul Richardson?

e: i also grabbed morris already, man has he had a garbage season so far

a patagonian cavy fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Oct 12, 2017

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:30

SouthShoreSamurai: Apr 28, 2009; It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.; Fun Shoe

Got Morris and DmC in every league except 3DongHorse's... where they were already gone lol.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:32

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Sataere posted:

Change your team name to To Die To Zeke, No More

Just did this and walked over to the 0-5 Zeke owner to "apologize" to him. This is why we play the game!

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:37

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Got Morris and DmC in every league except 3DongHorse's... where they were already gone lol.

Goon leagues are survivial of the fittest

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:38

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

As a Zeke owner is it worth Sterling Shepherd, McKinnon, Aaron Jones or Alvin Kamara for Morris or DMC. I'm pretty sure any of those guys would get picked up in an instant right now.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:39

SouthShoreSamurai: Apr 28, 2009; It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.; Fun Shoe

3 DONG HORSE posted:

Goon leagues are survivial of the fittest

Very true, though one of the other leagues is also a goon league (where I have DJ and Zeke, RIP me)

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:41

KingKapalone: Dec 20, 2005; 1/16 Native American + 1/2 Hungarian = Totally Badass

I have zeke. Who do I drop for Morris or McFadden?

Tyrell Williams
Cooper Kupp
Willie Snead
John Brown

edit: I am pretty good on RB overall: Zeke, Gordon, Ajayi, Gillislee, Coleman, so maybe one of these two wouldn't even play.

KingKapalone fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Oct 12, 2017

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:44

TheFace: Oct 4, 2004; Fuck anyone that doesn't wanna be this beautiful

Put in my waiver bid for Morris. Won't know until 7 am tomorrow, but I'm 2nd position sooo...

My RB group is poo poo and just keeps getting more so with injuries, so even though he's MAYBE only flex worthy I'll still likely end up starting him if he gets workload.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:46

Chernabog: Apr 16, 2007

Lol, I already got a trade proposal of my DMC for Aaron Jones. 0.5PPR
Mash?

Edit: Probably not since TyMo is coming back soon.

Chernabog fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Oct 12, 2017

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:47

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 6, 2024 16:51

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

I'm gonna offer Diggs and DMC+Morris for AB. Let's see how desperate he is.

# ? Oct 12, 2017 22:50

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2017: Advice [Q], Success [D]

«‹›308 »