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Residency Evil posted:Take a look at this: https://towardsdatascience.com/monte-carlo-simulation-with-dollar-cost-averaging-653ae47ec7d5 Think you gave the wrong link? Glad you believe that when investing someone's life savings DCA is less "risky" (why did you use quotes though?). Not quite sure you are understanding a fundamental rule - it costs money to reduce risk, and you *should* get higher returns from accepting it. And people generally don't want higher risk when we are talking entire life savings in a really bad global economic situation. Look, examining 20-30 years of SP500 data and using that to extrapolate out the next 20-30 years is not going to be so meaningful, especially when we are going through a 1/100 year (or worse) pandemic. No hoodwinker, this isnt the same as bird flu, or hiv, or sars1, or zika. Even examining the entire 60 year data set is going to be fairly meaningless. Or 100+ years of DJIA. I'm glad you are "ok with the risk in your asset allocation", but repeating a mantra doesn't mean you should close your eyes to additional options out there. Diversification outside of your 90/10 is a cheap way to reduce risk without losing much expected return. Look, in general I have an insane risk tolerance - but I try to diversify into anything I can that has an expected positive return, the less correlation to US equities the better. And your strategy is fine the vast majority of the time. I'm usually on set-it-and-forget-it too, but I wake up every 7 years or so when crazy poo poo happens. When we are faced with huge external macro events, look around a little bit. The US is loving this up big time, how might that affect the competitiveness of US equities for the next 20 years? There aren't a lot of alternatives right now with good returns, but a little thinking about mitigation and diversification doesn't hurt. Baddog fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Aug 3, 2020 |
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Aug 3, 2020 18:03
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Are there any company stocks for vertical farms or solar energy that I should look out for during/after the bubble? I've felt pretty excited ever since I learned one was being built in my metro last week: (one of the first in the US!!) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ1-SWVcAdw Grouchio fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Aug 3, 2020 |
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Aug 3, 2020 18:05
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Baddog posted:Think you gave the wrong link? Glad you believe that when investing someone's life savings DCA is less "risky" (why did you use quotes though?). Not quite sure you are understanding a fundamental rule - it costs money to reduce risk, and you *should* get higher returns from accepting it. And people generally don't want higher risk when we are talking entire life savings in a global pandemic. 1. How much are you spending on your insurance when compounded over 20-30 years? 2. I have international exposure through international investments as well as the fact that US companies bring in significant revenue internationally these days.
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Aug 3, 2020 18:08
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I stopped paying attention to game stocks. Why is ATVI poop now? I always tended toward TTWO more in the past though I'm out of it now. Looks like TTWO has been on fire.
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Aug 3, 2020 18:13
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ATVI isn't poop, it's great. All video game stocks are killing it. ATVI only ate poo poo when it hosed up the Diablo mobile game announcement
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Aug 3, 2020 18:17
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Femtosecond posted:I stopped paying attention to game stocks. Why is ATVI poop now? I always tended toward TTWO more in the past though I'm out of it now. Looks like TTWO has been on fire. everything I touch turns to poop
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Aug 3, 2020 19:00
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movax posted:everything I touch turns to poop You are poop-midas
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Aug 3, 2020 19:04
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movax posted:everything I touch turns to poop What's your success rate and how fast does it become poop? Let's pick out a ticker and I'll give you some of the profit I make off of shorting it.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:27
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Grouchio posted:Are there any company stocks for vertical farms or solar energy that I should look out for during/after the bubble? I've felt pretty excited ever since I learned one was being built in my metro last week: (one of the first in the US!!) Hmm, not answering for those buildings specifically, but, I’ve watchlisted the ETFs TAN and ICLN for green plays in the future. Both relatively pure plays that have done well recently.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:30
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Bought 5 ATVI calls aug 7 expiration 86 strike at 2.72. Hoping I dont get crushed before earnings.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:46
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Residency Evil posted:1. How much are you spending on your insurance when compounded over 20-30 years? Well, I spent about 2.5% of total net worth to zero out my equity exposure for 4 months there. I've spent another 1% to lower risk through september. That's the first time in 25 years, but lets figure I might do it every 5 years going forward if I don't lose my poo poo in my old age. Sold some ADT puts. Kodak is loving hilarious, bondholders converted today and diluted equity nearly 50%. My sold puts are still above water, but not looking good haha.
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Aug 3, 2020 19:54
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Baddog posted:Well, I spent about 2.5% of total net worth to zero out my equity exposure for 4 months there. I've spent another 1% to lower risk through september. That's the first time in 25 years, but lets figure I might do it every 5 years going forward if I don't lose my poo poo in my old age. So that's 3-4% over 9 months? That sounds expensive.
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Aug 3, 2020 20:17
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Residency Evil posted:So that's 3-4% over 9 months? That sounds expensive. Was it though?
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Aug 3, 2020 20:29
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Baddog posted:Was it though? I mean yeah, I'd be pretty sad if I was up 4% less for the year.
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Aug 3, 2020 20:32
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Residency Evil posted:I mean yeah, I'd be pretty sad if I was up 4% less for the year. I'm not sad so far, cus I made money on that insurance, as well as fully participating in the rally. Obviously I'm not saying to zero out your exposure every month, stop being so obtuse with your trolling. I punched out of that Kodak position, gently caress that noise. First loss with this strategy. At least it was only a 1x standard position loss, not a 10x or more. Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Aug 3, 2020 |
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Aug 3, 2020 20:38
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I can't get filled on any ATVI positions. This stinks. edit: If this isn't bullish for ATVI I don't know what is 
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Aug 3, 2020 21:24
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 And this is what I mean edit: Holy poo poo, NBA 2k20 made a loving billion dollars. edit2: I'm putting the rest of my collateral into anything I can get filled on ATVI tomorrow at market open edit3: I hope other people are listening to the T2 conference call because these numbers are insane https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/e36ydavx AHH F/UGH fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Aug 3, 2020 |
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Aug 3, 2020 21:34
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AHH F/UGH posted:
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Aug 3, 2020 22:12
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lol The rumor is that Riot made them sign an NDA type deal that they aren't allowed to publicly question the company's partnerships going forward and they tried to justify it like "look guys, we're just taking money from bad people and giving it to good people anyways!" Still, gently caress ME I can't believe I couldn't get filled all day on ATVI despite undercutting the average price. I re-submitted after market close and hopefully I get picked up tomorrow at market open, otherwise I have to move my strikes up.
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Aug 3, 2020 22:22
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Oscar Wild posted:Bought 5 ATVI calls aug 7 expiration 86 strike at 2.72. Hoping I dont get crushed before earnings. 
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Aug 3, 2020 22:34
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RIOT is without question the weirdest and grossest place ever, ethically. If they were a branch of the Chinese government it would be fundamentally unchanged.
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Aug 3, 2020 22:40
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We actually interviewed someone who worked at RIOT last year and to say that he wanted to get off that ride was an understatement. Talk about hosed up workplace culture.
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Aug 3, 2020 22:50
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anyone care to make an argument against buying Wayfair or Square calls pre-earnings this week? I've been moving houses and busy for more or less the past week and a half (long story) so I haven't been able to do as much market stuff as I'd like. I actually had orders placed for UPS calls pre-earnings but I couldn't get them filled at the bid I wanted and then got super busy so I never bought them. So mad, I kinda wish I had just placed a market order for the drat call. Anyone here use market orders to buy options?
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Aug 3, 2020 23:01
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pmchem posted:Anyone here use market orders to buy options? Man, seems like very few option markets are liquid enough to do that.... But I hear you. I loving knew SOHU was undervalued after the acquisition offer. Didn't get a fill so I wrote it off. Been going up ever since.
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Aug 3, 2020 23:32
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pmchem posted:Anyone here use market orders to buy options? Only for SPY because that's the only thing with consistent enough volume that I feel like I can get away with it without getting hosed.
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Aug 3, 2020 23:34
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Limit only, although I am usually less pushy than I should be about my bids.
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Aug 4, 2020 00:13
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I only do spreads really, so there's not much choice besides placing market orders
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Aug 4, 2020 02:14
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pmchem posted:anyone care to make an argument against buying Wayfair or Square calls pre-earnings this week? Came here to ask same thing. Square looks good to me but I'm gun shy... gently caress you eBay.
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Aug 4, 2020 13:31
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For anyone that may want to get in early, I loaded up on UAVS a couple weeks ago as they're a drone company that may be announcing a large partnership with Amazon soon. This morning, they had a press release that they're moving to their new warehouse/manufacturing facility in Wichita, KS just a short distance away from a brand new Amazon warehouse. Keep an eye on it today to increase. E: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ita-Kansas.html
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Aug 4, 2020 13:52
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drat, the graph for UAVS going back to 1999 is pretty crazy
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Aug 4, 2020 14:00
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Please name your new yacht the "Droneship" or something.
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Aug 4, 2020 14:02
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Residency Evil posted:Take a look at this: https://towardsdatascience.com/monte-carlo-simulation-with-dollar-cost-averaging-653ae47ec7d5 You're not wrong but I wish that we'd talk more plainly about what it means when we are taking risks. Because I don't think that this is taken into account with the discussions I see *anywhere* on personal finance. Buying and holding index funds is practically guaranteed to outperform active management or timing the market. This is universally understood but past that, we pretty quickly get to "it all depends on your personal situation, talk to a financial planner" which is understandable but infuriating advice on DIY investment discussion boards. Let me try to explain what I mean. I haven't figured this out all the way, yet. Vanguard did a Study (there have been many like this) showing that on average, lump sump investing (LSI) outperforms dollar cost averaging (DCA). Case closed, right? Well let's look at the results more closely. quote:On average, we find that an LSI approach has outperformed a DCA approach approximately two-thirds of the time, even when results are adjusted for the higher volatility of a stock/bond portfolio versus cash investments. So 1/3 of the time, you wold have been better off doing DCA. LSI isn't always the correct choice, it's just the one that was *more likely* to outperform. And 2/3 vs 1/3 isn't nothing but it's not a slam dunk either. By how much does it outperform? quote:We calculated the average ending values for a 60%/40% portfolio following rolling 10-year investment periods. In the United States, 12-month DCA led to an average ending portfolio value of $2,395,824, while LSI led to an average ending value of $2,450,264, or 2.3% more. So again, that's in LSI's favor but hardly definitive. And in the case of a market decline, DCI outperforms. quote:Out of the 1,021 rolling 12-month investment periods we analyzed for the U.S. markets, LSI investors would have seen their portfolios decline Note that there are few 12 month periods where the market sees that decline. Also note that all of this is for the 60/40 portfolio, so you'd expect even more volatile results with the modern consensus of 70/30-90/10. (There was another Vanguard study that i'm struggling to find again which suggested that 6 month DCA would be acceptable but that recommended against DCA longer than that.) The problem with all of this is that *none* of us are going to see average returns. We're each going to see a particular set of returns depending on the particular set of circumstances that happen over the course of our individual pathways though life. Going back 47 years, Ben Felix finds 0 years that the stocks in Canada, US, or the International markets matched the average return. Even in a band of between 3% and 10% Canada had 11 years of 47 in that range, US had 6 and International market had 7. Expanding again to -8% and +15% band, and that covers about half the years in the time period. More than half the time, you see massive jump or significant losses. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhYHrHiOS_E That's the risk that we're being compensated for. It's a real risk. A significant number of us are going to underperform the average, even if we follow the behavioral rules, buy and hold etc. I see a lot of people acting as if these strategies guarantee the average outcomes, but they really, really don't. I think often of the fate of someone retiring in 1972 and someone retiring in 1974. If they follow the same strategy, the 1972 retiree gets wiped out and the 1974 retiree does very well indeed. https://www.benefitplans.baml.com/publish/content/application/pdf/GWMOL/Pitfalls_in_Retirement_March_2019.pdf quote:If Billy (1974) had spent at the same initial 3% rate as Bobbie (1972), his wealth at year-end 2019 would be $5.4 million, as opposed to Bobbie’s $1.8 million (Table 1). Bobbie’s retirement portfolio could sustain initial spending rates up to 4%, while Billy’s could sustain 6%. Those are substantially divergent results owing to two years of luck. Returns compound but so do losses. It's good that many of us faced down the recent crash and felt good about holding, but I don't think it offered much more than a taste of the kind of pain that you should be ready to endure as an investor. Back to Felix's video: over rolling 10 year periods, going back to 1926, 15% of the time stock underperformed T-Bills. That's not a matter of a bad month or a bad year, that's needing to be ready to endure a bad decade. doingitwrong fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Aug 4, 2020 |
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Aug 4, 2020 14:10
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That Billie/Bobby comparison assumes a fixed asset value at retirement, which is more of a windfall analysis than an actual timing analysis. Retiring 2 years later with the same nominal value is a bad comparison because the person retiring two years later is not magically insulated from the market over the past two years unless their retirement plan gives them a lump sum of cash upon retirement. The point of index investing is that over any meaningful time scale, you cannot predict when the down markets will occur, or if you can, you are running billions of dollars and not posting in an internet comedy forum.
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Aug 4, 2020 14:28
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Good think I held on to half my position $AMD and my leap. loving look at this stock ripping. I did think we would see upgrades after it made new highs and their blowout quarter. Still surprised we have only seen 2 minor upgrades.
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Aug 4, 2020 14:56
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Cacafuego posted:For anyone that may want to get in early, I loaded up on UAVS a couple weeks ago as they're a drone company that may be announcing a large partnership with Amazon soon. This morning, they had a press release that they're moving to their new warehouse/manufacturing facility in Wichita, KS just a short distance away from a brand new Amazon warehouse. Keep an eye on it today to increase. Got in at 2.90. Let’s see how we get on.
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Aug 4, 2020 15:03
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doingitwrong posted:You're not wrong but I wish that we'd talk more plainly about what it means when we are taking risks. Because I don't think that this is taken into account with the discussions I see *anywhere* on personal finance. Buying and holding index funds is practically guaranteed to outperform active management or timing the market. This is universally understood but past that, we pretty quickly get to "it all depends on your personal situation, talk to a financial planner" which is understandable but infuriating advice on DIY investment discussion boards. Yes, I definitely agree that DCA may beat out LSI. As you pointed out, it's totally dependent on the particular moment in time. Still, for someone with say, 20-30 years to retirement, there's a decent chance that investing the lump sum is better. Who knows what will happen next year? WW3 could start. They could also finally discover fusion and bring about a new age of incredible growth. I have no idea what's going to happen, but because I have a decent amount of time to retire, I'm ok with that. As for the 1972 / 1974 example, I would hope that the guy who's retiring in 1972 would have gradually reduced his exposure to equities over time, especially as he gets closer to retirement. 
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Aug 4, 2020 15:04
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Ulio posted:Good think I held on to half my position $AMD and my leap. loving look at this stock ripping. I did think we would see upgrades after it made new highs and their blowout quarter. Still surprised we have only seen 2 minor upgrades. I put a hundred bucks on them a couple months ago, really wish I'd had more than that to play with.
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Aug 4, 2020 15:14
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Residency Evil posted:Yes, I definitely agree that DCA may beat out LSI. As you pointed out, it's totally dependent on the particular moment in time. Still, for someone with say, 20-30 years to retirement, there's a decent chance that investing the lump sum is better. Who knows what will happen next year? WW3 could start. They could also finally discover fusion and bring about a new age of incredible growth. I have no idea what's going to happen, but because I have a decent amount of time to retire, I'm ok with that. The 72/74 scenario gives each person $250,000 in nominal dollars invested 50/50 in stocks/bonds on the day they retire, so I don’t know how much weight I would place on that in a planning scenario. Unless that is the new hotness to replace social security? So many of these discussions do assume that the second you retire you go from 100% stocks to 100% bonds and lock in the immediately preceding losses/gains which is not how any target date fund would do it.
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Aug 4, 2020 15:17
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Got out of the ATVI calls this morning. I dont really need to hold them through earnings.
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Aug 4, 2020 15:17
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Oscar Wild posted:Got out of the ATVI calls this morning. I dont really need to hold them through earnings. Ya I rather hold stock normally into earnings then options if I have both cause if it's name I really like I don't mind being down on it.
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Aug 4, 2020 15:41
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