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The Houthis are cutouts for the Iranians, can we please not pretend that these were the creations of a bunch of garagineers?
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Sep 15, 2019 17:10
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Mortabis posted:The Houthis are cutouts for the Iranians, can we please not pretend that these were the creations of a bunch of garagineers? Thank you, Mr. Bolton. Since the Saudis are our cutouts, why are they so incompetent?
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Sep 15, 2019 17:46
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Both sides are pieces of poo poo but unlike the House of Saud the Iranians don't have an unbroken streak of POTUSs lovingly tonguing their assholes and cupping their balls so them clowning on the Saudis feels kinda good. Until the global economy crashes that is ofc. e: kinda gross post, logging off for the day.
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Sep 15, 2019 17:50
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joat mon posted:Thank you, Mr. Bolton. Since the Saudis are our cutouts, why are they so incompetent? ...... did you just answer your own question? *gazes at Afghanistan and Iraq*
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Sep 15, 2019 17:51
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joat mon posted:Thank you, Mr. Bolton. Since the Saudis are our cutouts, why are they so incompetent? If the saudis are our cutouts, they are to a significantly lesser degree than the UK.
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Sep 15, 2019 17:53
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While it is not controversial to say Iranian equipment has found its way to Yemen, it would be really simplistic to equate Houthis with Iran either in tactics or goals/motivation.
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Sep 15, 2019 17:54
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mlmp08 posted:While it is not controversial to say Iranian equipment has found its way to Yemen, it would be really simplistic to equate Houthis with Iran either in tactics or goals/motivation. A much more adult way to make my point.
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Sep 15, 2019 18:05
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mlmp08 posted:While it is not controversial to say Iranian equipment has found its way to Yemen, it would be really simplistic to equate Houthis with Iran either in tactics or goals/motivation. As best I can tell they are Iranian in the same way that the separatists in Donbas are Russian.
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Sep 15, 2019 18:18
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Yeah if the Donbass separatists spoke a Turkic language, and were far separated by history and geography, but happened to be Russian Orthodox and also hate the Ukrainian government.
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Sep 15, 2019 18:21
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Force de Fappe posted:Yeah if the Donbass separatists spoke a Turkic language, and were far separated by history and geography, but happened to be Russian Orthodox and also hate the Ukrainian government. Yeah. Donbas separatists to Russia is not even remotely close to an accurate comparison of Yemen situation.
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Sep 15, 2019 18:30
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Hauldren Collider posted:As best I can tell they are Iranian in the same way that the separatists in Donbas are Russian. I'd say less so. The Donbass government and military have a bunch of Russian military and government folks embedded in it, Russian active duty units fighting alongside them, and have leveraged large scale direct Russian military intervention from over the border a few times. They remain entirely reliant on Russia for arms and economic support. They are essentially Russian and only make a half-assed effort to conceal it. The Houthi forces get weapons from Iran, probably money, and intel/political support kinda stuff. They source most of their weapons from Yemen, though, and as far as I know they aren't led by Iranian military dudes or relying on direct Iranian interventions to keep them afloat. They're more akin to the homegrown hardcore Islamist Syrian rebel groups some of the gulf states (probably including KSA) backed, but with more questionable cultural/political ties because TBH the Houthis are not Iran's particular brand - they're just assholes fighting the people Iran hates. The biggest difference from the Syrian rebels being that they've been handed much more advanced weaponry than anyone was willing to hand over to the Syrians. They are not Iranian, arguably less "Iranian influenced" than Hezbollah, but at the same time they're absolutely hosed if Iran pulls support out from under them so they aren't gonna rock the boat by doing highly visible poo poo Iran doesn't approve of. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Sep 15, 2019 |
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Sep 15, 2019 18:32
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A better comparison would be Hezbollah, although Hezbollah is more tightly integrated with Iran. e: beaten
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Sep 15, 2019 18:41
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Gotcha. My mistake. I was misinformed.
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Sep 15, 2019 21:32
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The Saudis are behind this horrific, unnecessary poo poo in Yemen and deserve worse than this.
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Sep 15, 2019 22:29
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Mortabis posted:The Houthis are cutouts for the Iranians, can we please not pretend that these were the creations of a bunch of garagineers? Yeah, it sounds like the Not sure why it matters, though. Helped out by another nation or not, the Houthi are blueprinting asymmetric (lol, if I'm using that word correctly) drone warfare.
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Sep 15, 2019 23:10
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Nebakenezzer posted:Yeah, it sounds like the What's really new is seeing it used strategically against theoretically somewhat defended targets. Quadcopters have been dropping mortars from Donbass to Damascus for a while now.
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Sep 15, 2019 23:16
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Even if the Houthis have a subscription to Rc Lyf Iran, the technology to make long range cruise missiles is no longer something that you need to be a state actor to handle. There's kids on YouTube flying home made drones around nearby mountains while sitting on their porch miles away. Even the autonomous stuff is trivial, you can drag and drop mission waypoints on a map and an open source library does the rest. The times they are a-changing
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Sep 15, 2019 23:19
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Imagine what IRA, ETA or RAF would have done with this poo poo
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Sep 15, 2019 23:27
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If BoJo has his way we’ll find out what the IRA can do with the technology.
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Sep 15, 2019 23:29
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Splode posted:Even if the Houthis have a subscription to Rc Lyf Iran, the technology to make long range cruise missiles is no longer something that you need to be a state actor to handle. There's kids on YouTube flying home made drones around nearby mountains while sitting on their porch miles away. Even the autonomous stuff is trivial, you can drag and drop mission waypoints on a map and an open source library does the rest. This is actually pretty unprecedented if they built homebrew cruise missiles. It's not even remotely like building a commercial drone - you're dealing with serious jet or rocket engines, the need to carry a bunch of fuel and a heavy payload of explosives, and developing the flight logic for a missile (drone software isn't gonna fly your homebrew Tomahawk). Like Hezbollah and Hamas have a shitload of very smart and motivated people working on stuff like that for decades and it's just not feasible for them - they're still using ballistic rockets and commercial drones carrying cameras for recon or maybe a grenade over short distances. My guess, if these were actually anything resembling a cruise missile, is these were proper cruise missiles shipped in for the Houthi rather than anything built domestically. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Sep 15, 2019 |
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Sep 15, 2019 23:51
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Warbadger posted:This is actually pretty unprecedented if they built homebrew cruise missiles. It's not even remotely like building a commercial drone - you're dealing with serious jet or rocket engines, the need to carry a bunch of fuel and a heavy payload of explosives, and developing the flight logic for a missile (drone software isn't gonna fly your homebrew Tomahawk). Like Hezbollah and Hamas have a shitload of very smart and motivated people working on stuff like that for decades and it's just not feasible for them - they're still using ballistic rockets and commercial drones carrying cameras for recon or maybe a grenade over short distances. Meh, if you look at the picture of the UAV-X in the link I posted there's a Potato-Potato aspect to trying to deny the cruise missile label. It has wings, it flies to a target, then explodes. The terminal guidance could be manned, I guess, so you could deny the 'cruise missile' label that way.
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Sep 15, 2019 23:59
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Warbadger posted:This is actually pretty unprecedented if they built homebrew cruise missiles. It's not even remotely like building a commercial drone - you're dealing with serious jet or rocket engines, the need to carry a bunch of fuel and a heavy payload of explosives, and developing the flight logic for a missile (drone software isn't gonna fly your homebrew Tomahawk). Like Hezbollah and Hamas have a shitload of very smart and motivated people working on stuff like that for decades and it's just not feasible for them - they're still using ballistic rockets and commercial drones carrying cameras for recon or maybe a grenade over short distances. I probably am seriously simplifying some aspects of the technology but a lot of the things that used to be hard are significantly easier. Adjusting an open source piloting library to fly a big heavy missile is hard but it's way easier than starting with nothing at all. Same story for designing the gps stuff and radio control systems. They've been fighting for years, there's been plenty of time and they have plenty of committed clever people. I'm wary of the whole "there's no way these people developed this by themselves, they must have had help" it's exactly what people say about North Korea but you don't actually need to be from a western first world democracy to do engineering, and a cruise missile is a fast RC plane with a bomb on it, not a stealth aircraft or a nuclear reactor. It is unlikely they developed it but it's not impossible, is all I'm saying Splode fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Sep 16, 2019 |
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Sep 16, 2019 00:02
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Warbadger posted:This is actually pretty unprecedented if they built homebrew cruise missiles. It's not even remotely like building a commercial drone - you're dealing with serious jet or rocket engines, the need to carry a bunch of fuel and a heavy payload of explosives, and developing the flight logic for a missile (drone software isn't gonna fly your homebrew Tomahawk). Like Hezbollah and Hamas have a shitload of very smart and motivated people working on stuff like that for decades and it's just not feasible for them - they're still using ballistic rockets and commercial drones carrying cameras for recon or maybe a grenade over short distances. The buzz bomb was a cruise missile.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:03
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I'm okay with Iran beating the snot out of the Sauds.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:15
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Imagine if Bolton was still on the sticks.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:22
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Raenir Salazar posted:I'm okay with Iran beating the snot out of the Sauds. I mean sure, but it's not the Saudis who are suffering by the millions right now.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:27
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Splode posted:I probably am seriously simplifying some aspects of the technology but a lot of the things that used to be hard are significantly easier. Adjusting an open source piloting library to fly a big heavy missile is hard but it's way easier than starting with nothing at all. Same story for designing the gps stuff and radio control systems. They've been fighting for years, there's been plenty of time and they have plenty of committed clever people. Thing is that North Korea actually did have a shitload of external help - the missile program revolved around imported designs and expertise. The program was all reverse engineered Scuds, upscaled Scuds, and Scuds stacked on bigger Scuds up until the 2000's. The further they got from the original Scud the less reliable things got, particularly as they tried to shoehorn the platform into longer range roles by clustering and stacking. The next generation of missiles that finally gave them real MRBMs in the 2010's was a clone of a 1960's Soviet SLBM with manufacturing set up under contract by the Russian firm who built them. The current generation that gave them true IRBM/ICBM capability is straight up just using RB-250 boosters or an exact clone thereof (the failures now seem to be with the domestically produced upper stages). TLDR rocket programs are still really loving hard and the plucky hellstates have up to this point been buying and borrowing their way into the game just like everyone else. It is absolutely possible they made a homebrew cruise-missile/heavy bomb drone. However, they've been leaning heavily on stuff like the HESA Ababil clone and commercially purchased drones from China up to this point - not so much an innovator in building drones as being creative in the use of them. That and the fact that none of the similar groups have accomplished it with a lot more time and similarly smart and motivated people makes it seem very unlikely. More likely they got the new heavy drones (or at least designs) from the same place they got the old heavy drones from. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 05:47 on Sep 16, 2019 |
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Sep 16, 2019 00:42
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Warbadger posted:This is actually pretty unprecedented if they built homebrew cruise missiles. It's not even remotely like building a commercial drone - you're dealing with serious jet or rocket engines, the need to carry a bunch of fuel and a heavy payload of explosives, and developing the flight logic for a missile (drone software isn't gonna fly your homebrew Tomahawk). Like Hezbollah and Hamas have a shitload of very smart and motivated people working on stuff like that for decades and it's just not feasible for them - they're still using ballistic rockets and commercial drones carrying cameras for recon or maybe a grenade over short distances. You're going to need to define "proper cruise missile". A TLAM has a 1000lb warhead, thats a huge cruise missile.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:45
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As it turns out the missiles weren't even fired from Yemen, they were fired from Iraq, which makes it, uh, extra unlikely that the Houthis built them.
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Sep 16, 2019 00:45
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Mortabis posted:As it turns out the missiles weren't even fired from Yemen, they were fired from Iraq, which makes it, uh, extra unlikely that the Houthis built them. I'm gonna need a confirmation from Bellingcat on this
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Sep 16, 2019 00:51
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hobbesmaster posted:You're going to need to define "proper cruise missile". A TLAM has a 1000lb warhead, thats a huge cruise missile. That'd be a hard thing to define, but traditionally cruise missiles have been jet engine/turbofan affairs with guidance of some sort and a significant payload. The ISIS drones dropping grenades were not cruise missiles and the commercial drone flying 20 miles to plunk 10kg of explosives into a GPS coordinate isn't a proper cruise missile. Even something like the RBS-15 is generally not referred to as a cruise missile. When you get into big drones flying 100+ miles with big warheads on them, then that's where the line starts to blur and when they get much harder to engineer. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Sep 16, 2019 |
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Sep 16, 2019 00:51
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Smiling Jack posted:I'm gonna need a confirmation from Bellingcat on this The US government is claiming they were launched from Iraq and apparently people in Kuwait saw them flying overhead. Caveats about eyewitnesses apply. Apparently some missiles fell short to the north of the complex. Possibly there is other intelligence the public is not privy to. My view is that I trust the US government more than the Iranians although that doesn't bring me to 100% confidence. WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-rejects-u-s-accusations-over-saudi-oil-facility-attacks-11568544181 quote:U.S. officials said on Sunday there are strong indications the fiery blasts were the result of cruise-missile strikes launched from Iraq or Iran, an assessment that contradicts claims by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen that their drones struck the two Saudi oil plants. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said there was no evidence that the attacks emanated from Yemen.
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Sep 16, 2019 01:12
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there's nothing credible or confirmed yet. not even close.
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Sep 16, 2019 01:14
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Oh! Oh goody! Let's invade Iraq again!
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Sep 16, 2019 01:50
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Should be an interesting week! Hope gas doesn’t hit $2/litre here! (Currently a buck fiddy, we pay the highest gas prices in North America)
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Sep 16, 2019 01:53
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You're paying the metric system tax 
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Sep 16, 2019 01:58
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Raenir Salazar posted:I'm okay with Iran beating the snot out of the Sauds. There's no way the Saudis wouldn't call Uncle Sugar to come help/fight their war for them, and then we've got the makings of a major regional war. The Iranians might not have the same technological level of equipment the Saudis do, but put both armies in the field by themselves, without aid, and the smart money's on the Iranians. BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Sep 16, 2019 |
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Sep 16, 2019 02:33
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God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam.* *We don't really mean that literally.
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Sep 16, 2019 02:53
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Dante80 posted:God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam.* Islam literally cannot lose here. I mean, it also can’t win, but, semantics.
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Sep 16, 2019 03:03
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Mortabis posted:The US government is claiming they were launched from Iraq and apparently people in Kuwait saw them flying overhead. Caveats about eyewitnesses apply. Apparently some missiles fell short to the north of the complex. Possibly there is other intelligence the public is not privy to. My view is that I trust the US government more than the Iranians although that doesn't bring me to 100% confidence. Here's a Twitter post showing imagery of the refinery at Abqaiq: https://twitter.com/DionNissenbaum/status/1173325850323890178 And here's the same site in Google Maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@25.9276617,49.6843327,403m/data=!3m1!1e3 It looks like the strikes on the tank are all from the west-northwest. Extend a straight line and you get Israel 1000 miles away  , or screw up the direction measurement by 15 degrees and you get the Iraq border 300 miles away.
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Sep 16, 2019 03:08
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