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oldswitcheroo posted:Not necessarily. As populations shift around over a decade, gerrymandering can become less and less effective. Who's to say that lines drawn in 2010 will be a "good" gerrymander by 2018? The more careful and byzantine the gerrymander the more prone it is to losing its effectiveness over time. I don't think it's very likely, at least, to flip the house. It's looking like that it will be the first mid term's of a democratic president which would just structurally make the republicans the favorites too.
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Jun 13, 2014 20:31
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You know, with the GOP convention in June, Dems may be wisely served to hold a majority of delegates open til the convention. That way, if the GOP chooses Ted Cruz, they have no excuse but to nominate someone better aligned with current base priorities. Then again, Hillary still has this magnetism among many progressives somehow. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Jun 13, 2014 |
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Jun 13, 2014 20:43
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Not only does a gerrymander become less effective over time, but they amplify the effects of a wave election against the gerrymandering party.
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Jun 13, 2014 21:50
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Kiwi Ghost Chips posted:Not only does a gerrymander become less effective over time, but they amplify the effects of a wave election against the gerrymandering party. Yeah, if the goal is to maximize your number of congressional seats, you do that by drawing the districts so that "your" districts have the smallest margins that you would consider "safe" (let's say a 6-7 percent advantage for your party for example) and pack the other party into the smallest number of districts where they have an overwhelming majority. The problem is that this does yield you the largest possible seat advantage, but by cutting the margins closer to get more seats, a lot of those districts can go the other way if a "wave" causes people to go against your party for an election or two.
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Jun 13, 2014 23:07
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Ladies and gentlemen, your next President: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A2IXsB7C0Q
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Jun 14, 2014 00:00
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mcmagic posted:I don't think it's very likely, at least, to flip the house. It's looking like that it will be the first mid term's of a democratic president which would just structurally make the republicans the favorites too. It's what happened in 2006. When a gerrymander breaks down it breaks down hard. Plus to have a chance in 2022 they'll have to have won in 2020.
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Jun 14, 2014 00:09
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SedanChair posted:It's pretty relaxing that Clinton is inevitable because we can really criticize the poo poo out of her. But uh, let's go ahead and track down somebody who was overtly pro-marriage in, say, 2012. Somebody qualified, I mean. Lets get a black-hispanic lesbian with a French-Aljerian wife. Bonus if they leaned Mandarin so as to culturally bond with their adopted Chinese baby. I want to see how many levels of insanity lie beyond black man in the White House.
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Jun 14, 2014 03:28
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Paul MaudDib posted:That article also quotes Andrew Sullivan who does a good job of summarizing the "political windvane" argument as well as some of the other noxious stuff the Clintons presided over. I'm sorry, is it this Andrew Sullivan to whom you are referring? Andrew Sullivan in 2003 posted:You’re welcome. And as I read this and other Iraqi blogs written by people who lived under a kind of terror that we in the West have no way to understand or truly empathize with, I feel a lump in my throat. I am so proud of the country I was born in and the country I have made my home. I have never been prouder to be an Anglo-American, to have done in our time what so many before us have done – to broaden the possibilities of liberty, to bring hope, to restrain the violent men and evil ideologies that are each generation’s responsibility. The men and women in our armed forces did the hardest work. They deserve our immeasurable thanks. But we all played our part. By facing down the evil, the cowardly and the simply misguided, we have done a great good. edit: which hunt successful amanasleep fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Jun 14, 2014 |
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Jun 14, 2014 03:35
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amanasleep posted:I'm sorry, is it this Andrew Sullivan to which you are referring? Andrew Sullivan is such an rear end in a top hat. He loves to "just ask questions" about scientific racism too.
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Jun 14, 2014 03:45
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Andrew Sullivan is such an uncle tom he penned a big harumphing poutfest about the Mozilla thing within a day of the guy leaving about how basically we're the real oppressors by having opinions, as an openly gay man. The racism and everything else is just a cherry when he literally doesn't even understand his own civil rights movement, let alone anyone else's.
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Jun 14, 2014 03:48
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Didn't he also like hide the fact that he was HIV+ on a gay hook up site?
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Jun 14, 2014 04:13
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Whenever I see or hear Andrew Sullivan my brain refuses to do anything except shut itself down. There is no reason to ever quote him to support your argument unless your argument is "Andrew Sullivan sucks, and here's why". e: notthegoatseguy posted:Didn't he also like hide the fact that he was HIV+ on a gay hook up site? If this is true then that's a new low, even for him. Ninjasaurus fucked around with this message at 07:19 on Jun 14, 2014 |
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Jun 14, 2014 07:15
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notthegoatseguy posted:Didn't he also like hide the fact that he was HIV+ on a gay hook up site? No, he advertised on a bugchaser site.
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Jun 14, 2014 11:45
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The third annual Mitt Romney conference on Republican leadership is this weekend. Presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Brian Schweitzer attended. Jeb Bush had a scheduling conflict.quote:“Somebody here needs to start a ‘Draft-Mitt’ movement,” Joe Scarborough, the MSNBC host, told guests on Thursday, according to someone who was there. Another said Mr. Scarborough compared Mr. Romney to Winston Churchill, who lost his seat in Parliament before returning to power at the outbreak of World War II, when his warnings about Nazi appeasement proved prescient. "We shall fight as missionaries in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans in our yachts, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air in our private jets, we shall defend our private island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches of La Jolla, we shall fight on the golf course grounds, we shall fight in the vineyard fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender."
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Jun 15, 2014 01:06
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nyt posted:A rare Democrat in attendance was Brian Schweitzer, the former governor of Montana, who noted, “There’s not a single vote for me in the building.” (Mr. Romney, one guest said, yelled, “Go down to the press room — they’ll vote for you!”) So... does this mean that people will stop hoping that he'll run for president?
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Jun 15, 2014 01:12
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Never.
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Jun 15, 2014 01:19
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Come on Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush, join me on the draft Mitt bandwagon!
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Jun 15, 2014 01:22
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I'm in favor of drafting Mitt, because it will be hilarious to watch him lose either another primary, or another general election.
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Jun 15, 2014 01:47
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While we're on the subject, I had some insight into the robotic emotional processing unit of the Mittster recently. I live in Southeast Michigan, his childhood stomping grounds, and work on the fifteenth floor of a tower. I was admiring the view of metro Detroit and noticed that the trees did indeed look to be a uniform and aesthetically pleasing height. I finally understood his "right height" comment, and realized that this top floor office kind of view is just how he experiences everywhere. 
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Jun 15, 2014 01:53
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I miss good ol' Mitt with his folksy charm and easy rapport with salt of the earth types. My two favorite examples: - deriding the cookies from a local baker (and job creator) as off the shelf from 7-11 - going to a NASCAR race and relating to fans by saying he knew a lot of the team owners Please run again, Mitt. Show us that we must have learned our lesson and we're now ready to accept the stern guidance of a rich white man who truly knows what's best for us.
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Jun 15, 2014 02:07
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Hillary Clinton is holding a town hall via CNN this Tuesday. http://hillarytownhall.tumblr.com/ quote:Hillary Clinton is no stranger to tough questions. Now it’s your chance to ask her anything.
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Jun 15, 2014 03:41
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Pretty sure this may be the point where Politico et al stop running dumb "Why is Hillary afraid to jump in the race stories"... and starts running dumb "Why is Hillary running so early" stories.
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Jun 15, 2014 05:33
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oldswitcheroo posted:Not necessarily. As populations shift around over a decade, gerrymandering can become less and less effective. Who's to say that lines drawn in 2010 will be a "good" gerrymander by 2018? The more careful and byzantine the gerrymander the more prone it is to losing its effectiveness over time. Who's to say all the Chinese won't move out of Chinatown in less than 10 years?
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Jun 15, 2014 05:49
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FAUXTON posted:Who's to say all the Chinese won't move out of Chinatown in less than 10 years? Inertia.
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Jun 15, 2014 05:52
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dilbertschalter posted:probably because he's not particularly smart compared to most politicians of similar stature (and certainly not compared to obama and hillary). Nth Doctor posted:While we're on the subject, I had some insight into the robotic emotional processing unit of the Mittster recently. I live in Southeast Michigan, his childhood stomping grounds, and work on the fifteenth floor of a tower. I was admiring the view of metro Detroit and noticed that the trees did indeed look to be a uniform and aesthetically pleasing height.
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Jun 15, 2014 08:56
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FAUXTON posted:Who's to say all the Chinese won't move out of Chinatown in less than 10 years? Laugh it up, a lot can change in ten years. Go back to 98 and ask people how likely it would be for a black Democrat to win Virginia in a presidential election. edit: Or to use a district example, instead of a state example, Charlie Rangel's Harlem district was just barely plurality black after 2010 redistricting, there's no way it will be anything but plurality/majority latino by the time 2020 rolls around.
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Jun 15, 2014 10:36
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Cliff Racer posted:Laugh it up, a lot can change in ten years. Go back to 98 and ask people how likely it would be for a black Democrat to win Virginia in a presidential election. Considering they'd elected a black Democrat governor 9 years prior, you probably wouldn't get the answer you were expecting.
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Jun 15, 2014 10:54
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Hillary Clinton is holding a town hall via CNN this Tuesday.
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Jun 15, 2014 11:30
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comes along bort posted:Considering they'd elected a black Democrat governor 9 years prior, you probably wouldn't get the answer you were expecting. True enough, but note that I specified a (black) Democrat in a presidential election. Virginia had gone Republican the previous 8 times and, though they did not go for Goldwater they had been voting Republican since 1952 otherwise. Do you think that the state's future presidential voting history is going to look anything like that? Its tilting/leaning D and only going more in that direction over time.
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Jun 15, 2014 11:30
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Nth Doctor posted:While we're on the subject, I had some insight into the robotic emotional processing unit of the Mittster recently. I live in Southeast Michigan, his childhood stomping grounds, and work on the fifteenth floor of a tower. I was admiring the view of metro Detroit and noticed that the trees did indeed look to be a uniform and aesthetically pleasing height. Of course Romney would admire the uniformity of artificially planted monoculture forests.
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Jun 15, 2014 13:06
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FAUXTON posted:Who's to say all the Chinese won't move out of Chinatown in less than 10 years? This is really reductive, and not really what he was saying at all. The core of a "Chinatown district" might not change that much over the course of 10 years, but the edges of it could change quite a bit. Maybe gentrification forces some of those Chinese people partly into another district and more whites to show up along one of the edges. That kind of change in population makeup could impact the effectiveness of the gerrymandering. The fact is that gerrymandering is a response to population makeup at a certain point in time. So in the year where it's enacted it matches as best as it will ever will, but that doesn't mean that it will continue to match over time as people move around. Yeah, maybe some districts do mostly stay the same. Maybe others change quite a lot. In the aggregate I don't see how it's disputable that the effectiveness of a certain set of gerrymandered districts goes down over time.
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Jun 15, 2014 13:40
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More of Brian goes to Mitt:quote:“I don’t know why you lost the election, Mitt, but I know this: I was watching you on TV and I didn’t see the Mitt Romney that I knew,” Schweitzer said. “You are a fun guy and you’re easy-going and Obama is not. I’ve been in the room with him a little, too. He’s stiff as a board and you’ve got it going on.” The Democrats have their own Rand Paul now!
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Jun 16, 2014 10:03
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ErIog posted:This is really reductive, and not really what he was saying at all. The core of a "Chinatown district" might not change that much over the course of 10 years, but the edges of it could change quite a bit. Maybe gentrification forces some of those Chinese people partly into another district and more whites to show up along one of the edges. That kind of change in population makeup could impact the effectiveness of the gerrymandering. In 10 years?
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Jun 16, 2014 12:22
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FAUXTON posted:In 10 years? Yes. Remember, most gerrymandered districts aren't packed to 80/90 to one party, they are 53% to 55% one party districts surrounding that packed in group. I look at places like, say PA's 7th and 8th districts and have trouble seeing them as being plurality Republican in 2020.
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Jun 16, 2014 12:57
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Joementum posted:More of Brian goes to Mitt: You do know that he proposed Single Payer in Montana after the ACA passed, right? He's "not a fan of Obamacare" in the same way a good chunk of the progressive left is: that it didn't go far enough.
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Jun 16, 2014 13:47
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De Nomolos posted:You do know that he proposed Single Payer in Montana after the ACA passed, right? I was comparing him to Rand in that he's clearly running against the party orthodoxy, but is all over the map about it.
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Jun 16, 2014 13:55
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Hillary on books:quote:What are your favorite novels? Your favorite short stories? Poems you hold especially dear? Would actually be interested in an honest update on her thinking about that book and how her experiences have changed her understanding of it. Unfortunately, we'll never, ever know because, as the interview continues... quote:And the best books about Washington, D.C.? Is there one book you’d recommend to someone planning to move to or work in the capital?  quote:If you had to name one book that made you who you are today, what would it be? 
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Jun 16, 2014 14:34
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Kiwi Ghost Chips posted:Not only does a gerrymander become less effective over time, but they amplify the effects of a wave election against the gerrymandering party. This isn't true. 2010 ensured that there are around ~175-185 districts that are so deep red that even in a wave elections, the democrats have zero chance at winning them.
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Jun 16, 2014 14:39
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mcmagic posted:This isn't true. 2010 ensured that there are around ~175-185 districts that are so deep red that even in a wave elections, the democrats have zero chance at winning them. You can't magic up votes; either you increase your margins in your current seats or you try to get more. 
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Jun 16, 2014 15:02
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Kiwi Ghost Chips posted:You can't magic up votes; either you increase your margins in your current seats or you try to get more. And that amplifies wave elections, how?
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Jun 16, 2014 15:05
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