[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Dokapon Findom posted:

It's the most realistic assessment ever conducted. Where is more food supposed to come from? Even if you slash and burn everything, the cropland you "create" is still subject to the same rain or lack of rain that growing food depends on. As a species our limits are no longer about fertilizer or arable land but the seasons and weather being amenable to producing food in sufficient mass quantities

Silence, malthusian! Begone!

# ? May 14, 2024 19:10

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# ? May 31, 2024 11:08

Car Hater: May 7, 2007; wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
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ARROOOOOO!

Hubbert posted:

Silence, malthusian! Begone!

*hissing and shriveling up like crops in a drought*

# ? May 14, 2024 19:21

Perry Mason Jar: Feb 24, 2006; "Della? Take a lid"

Weembles posted:

I remember people talking about a warming spike when new IMO fuel rule cut the sulfur content of ship fuel a while back.

I don’t remember any actual numbers though.

It is what is largely blamed for the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic as seen on the thread's favorite graph. A caveat here is that the observed warming there does not line up to what we know about the rate of fall from atmosphere of sulfate aerosols. That is, the sulphur emission law for shipping went into effect in early 2020 but we did not see accelerated warming in the region until 2023. There is no known explanation for either (1) this lag (2) some other mechanism of warming for this region for the dates in question.

I'm not sure I've ever seen actual numbers either, other than that beautiful graph.

Morbus posted:

Don't worry we will just keep putting ever-more aerosols into the stratosphere and make sure we never stop. After several decades that is the best plan we have come up with lmao

Actually those experiments/projects are getting blocked left and right (e.g., Alameda CA blocked cloud brightening experiments by University of Washington 10 days ago). Unclear if this is fortunate or unfortunate.*

*Just kidding! It's ~irrelevant~

# ? May 14, 2024 20:09

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

bedpan posted:

we are going to blow past 2.5C like we blew past 1.5C

With people belatedly realizing that we've already blown past it and quietly changing 2.5 to 4c?

# ? May 14, 2024 20:21

Stevie Lee: Oct 8, 2007

Fried Watermelon posted:

the bugs are ground up into a powder anyways, it's not like they are given to you whole and you have to crunch them down yourself

they are already in things like peanut butter and stuff

not anymore.

i was sad to find out that i missed the edible insect tasting event near me. i could have tried some black ant corn muffins

or mealworm tacos???

i also had to ask the clerk at the lovely lil variety store near my work "what the gently caress is that" when i saw Cricket Lick-It Suckers on the counter recently

# ? May 14, 2024 20:22

Pink Mist: Sep 28, 2021

SixteenShells posted:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

Seems like every few years someone goes back and updates the Limits to Growth study and the results never ever stop being grim

like, this particular recalibration suggests that peak food production has either already happened or is about to happen within the next year

lol at pollution lasting longer than expected, industry peaking taller/faster than expected, population timing right on track but now expected to go lower

# ? May 14, 2024 20:28

bedpan: Apr 23, 2008

TeenageArchipelago posted:

With people belatedly realizing that we've already blown past it and quietly changing 2.5 to 4c?

You've got it

# ? May 14, 2024 20:29

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

Lmao 4 years the thread is going to be joking that it's just El Niño when we hit 1.7c or whatever

TeenageArchipelago has issued a correction as of 20:57 on May 14, 2024

# ? May 14, 2024 20:42

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

Perry Mason Jar posted:

That would be at the very highest end of estimates. More typically cited as 0.4C to 0.6C of cooling loss by sulfate aerosols when they are removed.

The biggest issue here is less the static figure of warming introduced, but rather the rapidity at which that warming is introduced. Sulfate aerosols fall from the atmosphere very quickly in climactic terms (about three months at the latest). A localized increase of 0.4C to 0.6C within a dozen weeks is a huge, unadaptable strain on local flora, fauna, weather, and climate systems.

thank you. though I am pretty comfortable taking the highest end of estimates, to be honest.

# ? May 14, 2024 20:44

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

Zodium posted:

thank you. though I am pretty comfortable taking the highest end of estimates, to be honest.

now thats what i call a HOT model

# ? May 14, 2024 20:44

smoobles: Sep 4, 2014

they're gonna have to call the next one El Hombre

# ? May 14, 2024 20:49

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

just reset the baseline to now and you�ve gotten us to 0 C

# ? May 14, 2024 20:56

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Let's talk about China for a hot minute. Note that I do not have FF's cadre of aide-de-camps, so I'll have to write this out on my phone:

Intervention Earth, Gwynne Dyer - Page 81 posted:

Meanwhile, in 2013, China declared a National Air Quality Action Plan that has been extraordinarily successful. Pollution in general has been reduced by 42 per cent and sulphur dioxide in particular, spewed mainly from coal-fired power plants, by 87%. This has spared hundreds of thousands of lives already, and is reckoned in the long run to lengthen the average Chinese lifespan by two years.

It has also raised China's average temperatures by 0.7C in just ten years.

# ? May 14, 2024 21:12

Eason the Fifth: Apr 9, 2020

Gonna graffiti SULFUR THE ATMO everywhere downtown

# ? May 14, 2024 21:18

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Welcome to the Faustian Bargain.

Damned if you do.

Damned jf you don't.

# ? May 14, 2024 21:24

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

that's not a faustian bargain

# ? May 14, 2024 21:27

silicone thrills: Jan 9, 2008; I paint things

or in the US view

drat everything china does

# ? May 14, 2024 21:31

Wakko: Jun 9, 2002; Faboo!

whats it called when i make a bargain to convert my rich biosphere into a tomb world, a thing i already wanted, in exchange for delicious treats

# ? May 14, 2024 21:39

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Zodium posted:

that's not a faustian bargain

Second quote, second image, third paragraph.

Hubbert posted:

this is why everyone needs to spend at least half an hour reading that Global Warming In The Pipeline article to learn how historic and current anthropogenic aerosols are apparently making climate change less worse than expected

Hubbert posted:

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2212/2212.04474.pdf

lol

lmao

Armadillo Tank posted:

> C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] Aerosol Cooling (Faustian Bargain)

# ? May 14, 2024 21:40

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

i love this thread when it gets Weird About China

# ? May 14, 2024 21:40

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

Wakko posted:

whats it called when i make a bargain to convert my rich biosphere into a tomb world, a thing i already wanted, in exchange for delicious treats

well you want both the tomb world and the treats, so I think that's a twofer.

# ? May 14, 2024 21:55

Puppy Burner: Sep 9, 2011

mags posted:

i love this thread when it gets Weird About China

if the chinese were serious about solving climate change they should nuke america

# ? May 14, 2024 21:58

atelier morgan: Mar 11, 2003; super-scientific, ultra-gay; Lipstick Apathy

Puppy Burner posted:

if the chinese were serious about solving climate change they should nuke america

alas, communists often err by presuming that coexistence with the west is possible

# ? May 14, 2024 22:05

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

mags posted:

i love this thread when it gets Weird About China

Same, I love to study the potential futures of the world's Great Powers in a climate-changed future.

We'll start with a previous book quote from Alfred W. McCoy, before moving back to Gwynne Dyer.

I would even appreciate further research material to work with.

Hubbert posted:

Correct. The world beyond 2050 is unimaginable to the modern perspective.

For the short version, see the following article: Life Circa 2050 Will Be Bad. Really Bad.

For the long version, here's the entirety of Chapter 7: Climate Change in the Twenty-First Century as lifted directly from To Govern The Globe: World Orders & Catastrophic Change (Alfred W. McCoy).

[...]

Intervention Earth, Gwynne Dyer - Pages 207 to 209 posted:

Can we put a number on the scale of the hunger? Such numbers are rare, mainly because governments don’t want that sort of number becoming public, as it would certainly generate demands for actions that they are unable, unready, or willing to take. This was the case with the confidential contracts given out by the World Bank more than a dozen years ago to non-governmental think tanks in the major world capitals, commissioning them to conduct studies on how much food production would fall in the country where they were based when the average global temperature reaches +2C. The results of these studies have never been made public, presumably because the World Banks’ member states forbade it. I only know of them because I interviewed the head of one of the think tanks that had the contracts.

We looked at the impact of a two-degree C rise and the associated extra precipitation on the soil, on what is being grown today, how various districts would be affected, etc. For two degrees of global warming, we found a 25 per cent loss of food production in India. One would expect large-scale hunger, large-scale migration and riots.

Dr. Jyoti Parikh, Executive Director, Integrated Research and Development (IRAD), New Delhi

I asked Dr Parikh if she knew what the predictions had been for other countries. She only knew of one, for China, and only because somebody in the Beijing think tank, quite against the rules, had posted the executive summary of its report on China on that organization’s website for a few hours before the management (or the Great Firewall) took it down again. China would lose 38 per cent of its food production at +2C, it said. No government that allows that to happen can hope to survive.

Peer-reviewed scientific papers do not predict such a big loss of food production a t+2C, especially for China, but research papers are inherently conservative whereas these studies may have been encouraged to examine plausible worst-case scenarios. However, even the Chinese figure is credible given the multiple hits the country would take in most warming scenarios: severe weakening of the north-east monsoon that brings the wheat-growing North Chinese Plain the greater part of its water; the exhaustion of the deep underground aquifers that provide most f the rest; the melting of the western glaciers that feed the great Chinese rivers; the more powerful storms and tyhphoons that will hammer the low-lying east coast; and the risk of inundation of the major rice-growing river deltas.

If the Chinese regime knows and believes that 38 per cent prediction, then no wonder it is investing more in non-fossil fuel energy sources than any other country. True, at the same time, China is raising its energy production by all available means, including even coal, to keep the economy growing, and that often leads to contradictory policy choices. The regime is no doubt well aware that a 38 per cent unemployment rate would be just as likely to cause its collapse as a 38 per cent fall in food production, so it must balance one risk against the other. And both China and India know that they can’t just buy their way out of trouble.

We have to remember that food will not come from outside. The whole world will be suffering food shortages. Today, if we have a food shortage, we can just go out and buy. This year we’re importing, next year we’ll be exporting: these kinds of things one takes in one’s stride. But when the whole world is short, you cannot expect food to come from outside. It will be a very, very tough situation.

Dr. Jyoti Parikh, Executive Director, Integrated Research and Development (IRAD), New Delhi

[…]

In an average year, both China and India (one third of the world’s population between them) produce around 80 per cent of the food they need, and they also maintain between nine months’ and a year’s grain reserves, so they are far from the brink of famine. However, both they are every other government in the Global South knows that crop yields are likely to fall more or less in lock-step across the region as the temperatures rise – and that if the fall of production is more than temporary, food reserves will be used up fairly quickly. Then, if there’s no enough grain available for sale internationally from temperate zone surpluses to cover the shortfall in domestic production in the tropics and subtropics, the highest bidder wins – and China can outbid everyone else.

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 22:15 on May 14, 2024

# ? May 14, 2024 22:11

Erghh: Sep 24, 2007; "Let him speak!"

Wakko posted:

whats it called when i make a bargain to convert my rich biosphere into a tomb world, a thing i already wanted, in exchange for delicious treats

its kind of a dealth cult tbh

# ? May 14, 2024 22:23

ephex: Nov 4, 2007; PHWOAR CRIMINAL

Puppy Burner posted:

if the chinese were serious about solving climate change they should nuke everybody

# ? May 14, 2024 22:44

Car Hater: May 7, 2007; wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Hubbert posted:

... reckoned in the long run to lengthen the average Chinese lifespan by two years.

"I don't think so, Tim."

# ? May 14, 2024 22:57

Car Hater: May 7, 2007; wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

I spent an hour or so today reading the opinions of a techno-optimist who was Very Upset about people who suggest degrowth is a way forward and that technology might not actually solve all our problems. It was honestly pretty soothing once I had forced myself to believe it. Why worry about anything, when it gets bad enough we'll be incentivized to innovate our way out of the crisis. Nothing can stop humanity!

# ? May 14, 2024 23:05

Harold Fjord: Jan 3, 2004

We already have a perfectly clean source of immense power just waiting for us to pick it back up and gently caress everything up horribly

# ? May 14, 2024 23:07

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

Eason the Fifth posted:

Gonna graffiti SULFUR THE ATMO everywhere downtown

What's atmo?

# ? May 14, 2024 23:08

quiggy: Aug 7, 2010; [in Russian] Oof.

i watched a stupid netflix documentary about volcanoes and they said if a super volcano erupts it should lower earths temperature by ~4C so really we'll be fine actually

# ? May 14, 2024 23:13

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

Puppy Burner posted:

if the chinese were serious about solving climate change they should nuke america

for real

# ? May 14, 2024 23:14

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

TeenageArchipelago posted:

What's atmo?

a boss fight in ff6

# ? May 14, 2024 23:15

Car Hater: May 7, 2007; wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

quiggy posted:

i watched a stupid netflix documentary about volcanoes and they said if a super volcano erupts it should lower earths temperature by ~4C so really we'll be fine actually

This was also one of the conclusions of the IPCC AR6 report back in '22.

# ? May 14, 2024 23:16

Eason the Fifth: Apr 9, 2020

TeenageArchipelago posted:

What's atmo?

not much, what's atmo with u

# ? May 14, 2024 23:18

err: Apr 11, 2005; I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

SixteenShells posted:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

# ? May 14, 2024 23:18

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

quiggy posted:

i watched a stupid netflix documentary about volcanoes and they said if a super volcano erupts it should lower earths temperature by ~4C so really we'll be fine actually

the animal kingdom would survive in this scenario.

makes it a net positive IMO

# ? May 14, 2024 23:33

starkebn: May 18, 2004; "Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"

Hubbert posted:

His name is William Nordhaus.

Car Hater posted:

*hissing and shriveling up like crops in a drought*

# ? May 14, 2024 23:47

starkebn: May 18, 2004; "Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"

I don't think they're always right, but Chinese policy seems more lead by engineers and scientists in contrast to the west where it's lawyers and economists.

I'll let you make your own mind up as to which might have a clearer picture about how to deal with future conditions.

# ? May 14, 2024 23:56

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# ? May 31, 2024 11:08

Puppy Burner: Sep 9, 2011

starkebn posted:

I don't think they're always right, but Chinese policy seems more lead by engineers and scientists in contrast to the west where it's lawyers and economists.

I'll let you make your own mind up as to which might have a clearer picture about how to deal with future conditions.

Excellent track record except one glaring mistake

# ? May 15, 2024 00:19

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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