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It is done. He was adamant about the 1st being included, but I was able to get a slightly better 6th from him. Thanks for everyone's advice.
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May 2, 2019 18:50
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Tyreek Hill scored 12 receiving TDs last year, catching 87 passes of 137 targets for 1400 yards. Mahomes attempted 580 passes for 383 completions and 50 touchdowns. If you subtract all of Hill's TDs, and assume his targets go to other targets with half his catching efficiency, Mahomes is still getting around ~340 completions (moves from 5th to around 14th), and 38 TDs (first or second place) with around 4600 yards (~4th). Still a top 3 QB in fantasy, especially in 6 point TD leagues. And that's being very aggressive in discounting from what Hill contributed. That's highly reductionist of course, a new season is totally different, etc. and perhaps Mahomes has to regress regardless: but the point is, even without Hill, Mahomes is still the most valuable QB to own, especially since one of his top competitors - big ben led him in yards last year by a bit - lost antonio brown. I'd take Mahomes for ODB straight up, mash. For trading back in the first, it's just a solid trade. Getting Bell basically for free makes it a mash again. I think you made the right choice Maka.
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May 2, 2019 19:22
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I just think you're valuing QB too much and/or discounting how much a mid or late round QB can get you in scoring, and not baking in some expected dip in production because it's next to impossible to hit 5000-50 and even more impossible to sustain that for multiple years. Just yesterday someone on Reddit put up a post with all the 4000-40 seasons: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/bjk14c/every_qb_with_a_4k_total_offense_and_40_td_season/ Brees did it from 2011-2013 and Rodgers did 4 out of the 6 years from 2011 through 2016, but otherwise it's a smattering of one or two seasons from a handful of guys. Forget about losing Hill, Mahomes is unlikely to approach 5000-50 again even with Hill, meaning he's just not worth a massive premium over low end QB1s, certainly not worth an almost locked in WR1 straight up. Or are you particularly down on OBJ?
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May 2, 2019 19:48
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I'm both thinking that Mahomes is very very special, and down on OBJ a lot. It's about positional scarcity; I think Mahomes, even with regression, will end the season a top-3 fantasy QB in 6pt TD leagues; and that OBJ might not finish in the top 10. e. barring injury of course, and Mahomes despite his proven elusiveness will eventually get hurt. But OBJ can also get hurt, so I think that cancels out.
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May 2, 2019 19:58
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jabro posted:I’ll do it if I can roleplay as a Giants GM. Someone wants to beat up nerds Leperflesh posted:Tyreek Hill scored 12 receiving TDs last year, catching 87 passes of 137 targets for 1400 yards. And two years ago, Carson Wentz was the new hotness. Quarterback play still fluctuates, even when a player is really good.
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May 2, 2019 20:06
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Nobody in the history of football has been a new hotness to the astonishing degree that patrick mahomes was a new hotness last year; but, there is certainly a risk and it's substantial. This is fantasy football, after all.
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May 2, 2019 20:17
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Wentz was new hotness and still could be again but saying that he was awesome until he broke in half doesn't do anything to predict other peoples' careers who may or may not also get injured.
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May 2, 2019 20:30
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Yeah, I feel like Wentz or Watson last year is a different deal from a guy who played at a very high level all year.
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May 2, 2019 21:43
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I'm not arguing Mahomes is bad. I own a lot of his dynasty shares. I'm just saying he wasn't the best player in that trade. Can you name a guy who had a top five all-time NFL/fantasy season at quarterback who didn't regress the next year? This is a value issue. I think Mahomes is amazing. I also think he's way overvalued based on one year of play. I also am not convinced he's THAT much better than Wentz/Watson. I need another year before I annoint him. I actually believe he is that good and is the next great quarterback. It's taking every ounce of restraint I have not to go full fanboy
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May 2, 2019 22:09
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to have a top-five all-time and then not regress the next year, would require that next year to be a top-four all-time, and that's way more than I'm predicting. I'm predicting that Mahomes, absent injury, even regressing significantly, is still top-3 in the league for the year, particularly in a TD-favored fantasy format. And that Odell Beckham Jr., while incredibly talented, has neither the situation nor the momentum to count on for a good year. I would not take him in the first round of any fantasy draft this year.
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May 2, 2019 22:31
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Sataere posted:I'm not arguing Mahomes is bad. I own a lot of his dynasty shares. I'm just saying he wasn't the best player in that trade. I have a feeling that in my auction league, I'm going to spend all pre-draft talking about regression and how it was a nice year for him, but super unlikely to repeat, especially with weapons like Hill and Hunt gone and they're retooling the defense, he won't have to throw as much to win and then I'm going to pay whatever it takes to get him.
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May 2, 2019 22:44
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Leperflesh posted:Tyreek Hill scored 12 receiving TDs last year, catching 87 passes of 137 targets for 1400 yards. On the topic of reductionism, and I'm sure a part of what you meant, it's not just the numbers that Hill produced that you take away from the composite of the Chiefs offense - you also take away the attention he drew being one of the fastest players in the league. Life does become a little more challenging for Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and company while defenses can scheme more aggressively to stop them without having to worry about Hill ripping a 7 yard slant over the top for a 60 yard gain. I don't know how this will affect the Chiefs offense as a whole while they attempt to get Mecole up to speed in that role, assuming he's up for at least something similar, and while I agree that Mahomes is supremely talented, I think it would be a mistake to simply say, Mahomes' "floor" is last year's numbers minus Hill sans injury. (I know, not what you're actually saying, but in case someone is interpreting it that way)
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May 2, 2019 23:12
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Leperflesh posted:to have a top-five all-time and then not regress the next year, would require that next year to be a top-four all-time, and that's way more than I'm predicting. A top 3 QB isn't worth a 1st round pick either though, whatever you think of OBJ. Assuming it's 1 point per 25 passing yards, 6 per TD, -2 per int, top 5ish QBs the last few years have been in the range of 25-28 points per game. Mahomes last year was 32. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Watson, or Ryan are all a good shot to get you 23-25 points per game, with one or two of them likely to hit 26-28 (just good luck picking right). Mahomes throwing 5 fewer TDs and 200 fewer yards with that scoring drops him down by 2 ppg, and that'd still be something like a top 8 all time season. If he dips to merely a top 15ish all time year of 4600-42, that brings him down to right around 28 ppg, around QB#1-3 of the past handful of years before last. I'm just not sure the value is there to justify treating him as something beyond a high end QB1. If you can get Rodgers or Watson or Wilson 3-4 rounds later, surely that's the better play. Fantasy Football Calculator has Mahomes as a mid to late 2nd, Luck a late 4th, Rodgers/Watson/Baker in the 5th, Wilson/Ryan/Brees late 6th. All of those are the better option imo.
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May 2, 2019 23:21
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Sure. I mean really you can't compare WRs to QBs. And really every player is a product of their own talent, their situation, and a lot of luck, and you can't account for at least one of those factors and often two or three of them. I don't want to make too much of a deal out of this particular comparison. It might also be worth mentioning that as a keeper league, that guy can presumably keep a player for multiple years, so this is Mahomes forever vs. ODB forever, and in one case the player is a Chief for at least a few years and in the other case the player is a Brown for probably at least a couple or three years.  The takeaway is probably that you can easily decide that trade was a bargain or not, depending on exactly how much you expect Mahomes to regress, ODB to do well, and your particular league's scoring. For me, it's a mash. Some others like Sataere might not do it at all.
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May 2, 2019 23:22
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DGladding posted:On the topic of reductionism, and I'm sure a part of what you meant, it's not just the numbers that Hill produced that you take away from the composite of the Chiefs offense - you also take away the attention he drew being one of the fastest players in the league. It's Sammie Coates time to shine!
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May 2, 2019 23:22
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Kelce's had ankle surgery. His recovery time could have an affect on Mahomes' production early season too, but the articles I find suggest it was a minor procedure and he's expected to be ready for camp. I wonder if folks are discounting him too much when deciding who Mahomes could be throwing to without Tyreek. Also if Sammy Watkins is healthy he's gonna be a sneaky 3rd-4th round pick IMO
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May 2, 2019 23:38
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As of today there is a much bigger chance than yesterday that Hill is on the team and playing next season so adjust your numbers accordingly, if not your sense of morality.
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May 2, 2019 23:45
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kiimo posted:As of today there is a much bigger chance than yesterday that Hill is on the team and playing next season so adjust your numbers accordingly, if not your sense of morality. Everyone here had no problem with Peterson so won’t have a problem with Hill.
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May 3, 2019 00:19
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yup AP came out in an article last year and basically admitted that even after everything, he still whips his kid, and there have been zero consequences of that without clear proof he did it, Hill will keep his job; and even with proof, he'll only get a suspension and he'll be playing again in no more than a year.
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May 3, 2019 00:26
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kiimo posted:As of today there is a much bigger chance than yesterday that Hill is on the team and playing next season so adjust your numbers accordingly, if not your sense of morality. Nothing happened today that changed anything. If you are referring to the text messages being posted, if you think Tyreek can write so eloquently, then you've obviously never heard him speak. Also those are the texts she talks about in the audio recording regarding covering for him.
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May 3, 2019 00:28
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Alfalfa posted:Nothing happened today that changed anything. 1. You're right nothing changed. He's still on the team. 2. That's a real bad take for several different reasons. First those texts aren't actual texts they're what the lawyer wrote to the NFL, this isn't a press release quoting his texts and there's hundreds of texts they sent to the NFL not in that four page letter. Second assuming how Hill texts is pretty hosed up in itself, from what I have seen his messages and posts have been cohesive. 3. I have no idea if that's what she's referring to and also I'm not at all defending Hill or saying he did or did not do anything because I don't know. 4. I am saying that the odds of him being on the team have increased because I never thought he'd make it past Monday.
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May 3, 2019 01:20
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Going from 3% to 5% is definitely technically an increase yes
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May 3, 2019 01:21
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kiimo posted:1. You're right nothing changed. He's still on the team. Isn't he technically still suspended from the team?
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May 3, 2019 04:37
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Alfalfa posted:Isn't he technically still suspended from the team? It’s offseason. Who cares what designation he has right now. All that matters is week 1 - 16 (or week 17 if your league sucks).
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May 3, 2019 04:53
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kiimo posted:2. That's a real bad take for several different reasons. First those texts aren't actual texts they're what the lawyer wrote to the NFL, this isn't a press release quoting his texts and there's hundreds of texts they sent to the NFL not in that four page letter. Second assuming how Hill texts is pretty hosed up in itself, from what I have seen his messages and posts have been cohesive. I would like to submit this exhibit for the consideration of the court: 
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May 3, 2019 14:47
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Anyone else's rookie drafts starting up?
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May 3, 2019 14:51
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I have joined the slow draft. Just 3 more and we can start making dumb, terrible choices!
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May 3, 2019 16:28
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MacheteZombie posted:Anyone else's rookie drafts starting up? Mine starts Monday I think. I should probably go find out who even got drafted
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May 3, 2019 16:33
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Azhais posted:Mine starts Monday I think. I should probably go find out who even got drafted Yeah this morning was the first time I looked at rankings. I'm drafting at 9 and 12 at the earliest. Almost debating shopping the picks, but not sure what value I'll get
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May 3, 2019 18:04
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Also joined the slow draft. My body is ready.
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May 3, 2019 18:16
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One more needed for a 12 team slow draft. Tomorrow morning I'll get one of my non-goon friends to join if no one does. https://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/leagues/296091
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May 6, 2019 13:58
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Drunk Nerds posted:One more needed for a 12 team slow draft. Check out this humble brag
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May 6, 2019 15:44
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Sataere posted:Check out this humble brag Okay, fine! I'll get my only non-goon friend to join! It'll make a nice Mothers Day gesture, anyway.
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May 6, 2019 16:43
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If you guys still need a slow drafter, I can join
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May 6, 2019 16:46
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89 posted:If you guys still need a slow drafter, I can join 
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May 6, 2019 17:58
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89 posted:If you guys still need a slow drafter, I can join Sweet. We can start today!
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May 6, 2019 19:24
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I got an offer for my Fournette. His 2019 3.03 and 2020 1st round. That's way too low right?
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May 6, 2019 20:01
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Slow mock draft fired, check your emails.
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May 6, 2019 21:10
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MacheteZombie posted:I got an offer for my Fournette. His 2019 3.03 and 2020 1st round. Can you project the first to be early, middle, late? A lot of people have soured on Fournette, and I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 top rookie RBs are valued over him this time next year. A late or random first isn't enough for him, but I don't think it's so far off you should be insulted. Between the weird "maybe we voided your guarantees" this offseason and his poor efficiency til now, I'd probably get rid for two random 2020 1sts, or for a guaranteed top 3 or 4 pick next year.
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May 6, 2019 21:15
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sourdough posted:Can you project the first to be early, middle, late? A lot of people have soured on Fournette, and I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 top rookie RBs are valued over him this time next year. A late or random first isn't enough for him, but I don't think it's so far off you should be insulted. Between the weird "maybe we voided your guarantees" this offseason and his poor efficiency til now, I'd probably get rid for two random 2020 1sts, or for a guaranteed top 3 or 4 pick next year. Decided against the trade MacheteZombie fucked around with this message at 00:41 on May 7, 2019 |
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May 6, 2019 21:33
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