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Who will you vote for in 2020?
This poll is closed.
Biden 425 18.06%
Trump 105 4.46%
whoever the Green Party runs 307 13.05%
GOOGLE RON PAUL 151 6.42%
Bernie Sanders 346 14.70%
Stalin 246 10.45%
Satan 300 12.75%
Nobody 202 8.58%
Jess Scarane 110 4.67%
mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party 61 2.59%
Dick Nixon 100 4.25%
Total: 2089 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Seven Hundred Bee posted:


I am curious if there is a point in a few months where the republican party tries to create daylight between down ballot candidates in trump - we could see the first signs of that this week from the vulnerable incumbents.

I don't think so. I think they are going to stick to him no matter what. Even if he's a dead man walking they will not cleave themselves from him.

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Somfin
Oct 25, 2010

In my🦚 experience🛠️ the big things🌑 don't teach you anything🤷‍♀️.

Nap Ghost

mcmagic posted:

Pat Robertson and every single one of his fans is going to vote for Trump in November. A little mild criticism is meaningless.

It's important to remember that conservatism is all about how you react to negative stimulus. If your reaction is "oh that's bad, very bad, truly" but nothing about your actual behaviour changes, you don't try to push for any actual action, and you don't think there's any way that the bad thing might stop happening, you're a conservative.

And conservatives never change how they vote.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

mcmagic posted:

Pat Robertson and every single one of his fans is going to vote for Trump in November. A little mild criticism is meaningless.

the significance isnt in how pat robertson votes (he might not even be alive in november - he is looking increasingly frail every day) its how this functions as a signal to more moderate elements of the evangelical bloc or even non-evangelical christian republicans. 2016 trump was able to paper over his scorn for christianity with a pastiche of religious leaders to an extent that a legitimate christian conservative suburban voter (they do exist) was able to say "hm, maybe!". teargassing priests on the steps of their church to the point that an actual catholic archbishop condemns you -- which is basically unheard of! - makes that choice much harder. and the game isn't "convince every christian voter", its convince 1% of them.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

the significance isnt in how pat robertson votes (he might not even be alive in november - he is looking increasingly frail every day) its how this functions as a signal to more moderate elements of the evangelical bloc or even non-evangelical christian republicans. 2016 trump was able to paper over his scorn for christianity with a pastiche of religious leaders to an extent that a legitimate christian conservative suburban voter (they do exist) was able to say "hm, maybe!". teargassing priests on the steps of their church to the point that an actual catholic archbishop condemns you -- which is basically unheard of! - makes that choice much harder. and the game isn't "convince every christian voter", its convince 1% of them.

historically, trusting Pat Robertson to save you has a pretty poor track record.

I'd advise finding something better to pin your hopes on than the hope that finally, finally, Christian conservatives decide republicans don't really love Jesus. it worked poorly in 2016.

SgtSteel91
Oct 21, 2010

ColonelMuttonchops posted:

Probably yeah, dems need to be replaced no matter who wins.

Here's a question: Is it easier to replace lovely democratic politicians when they're in power, or when they're not in power?

SgtSteel91 posted:

I'll let you know by the end of the day; it's Primary election day in MD

So at the moment, in my District with 43% of the votes reported the incumbent lovely dem is winning 79/21

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

intepreting the current protests as a result of stuff specific to trump is, i think, severely underestimating the dysfunction of the american political system at the moment - the fed is still running with the greenspan toolbox as crisis response, much like they did under obama, and opposition to helicopter money seems surprisingly bipartisan outside of a relatively few voices on the democratic left. policing has been broken for even longer than crisis response, and it's notably something that obama totally failed to address during his time in office.

it's hard to see how you avoid this level of desperation under e.g. a hillary presidency

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

mcmagic posted:

Pat Robertson and every single one of his fans is going to vote for Trump in November. A little mild criticism is meaningless.

It's notable as a bellwether. Pat and co. absolutely will be voting for Trump, but it matters they'd condemn him at all. Remember, Robertson's tack is a grift predicated on telling people what they want to hear and affirming that Jesus approves of their preconceived notions and the behaviors that directly derive from it (except for the one evil behavior, not giving money to Pat Robertson).

Eminai
Apr 29, 2013

I agree with Dante, that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality.

Pick posted:

It's notable as a bellwether. Pat and co. absolutely will be voting for Trump, but it matters they'd condemn him at all. Remember, Robertson's tack is a grift predicated on telling people what they want to hear and affirming that Jesus approves of their preconceived notions and the behaviors that directly derive from it (except for the one evil behavior, not giving money to Pat Robertson).

Pat Robertson is going to make a big show of God forgiving Trump at some point before the election, at which point he'll implore everyone who also doubted Trump's actions to follow God's example, and forgive/vote for him. This is a calculated ploy to get people who feel squeamish about all the violence the cops are putting out to stick with Robertson and come back to Trump in the end. You're trying to take a moral away from a story that's only in it's second act, and that only works if you realize that the second act is not the finale.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
American evangelicals have been playing the long game for decades, and actually understand the dynamics of power and popular perception. This makes them almost unique in American politics. Everything they profess to believe is just ad copy and propaganda devices, and they know it.

It's not just grift, it's a well developed tactical kit.

rko
Jul 12, 2017
https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1268052818637860865?s=21

Words can’t really express how contemptible this is.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

rko posted:

https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1268052818637860865?s=21

Words can’t really express how contemptible this is.

Yeaaaaaaaah probably not a good idea to turn Floyd's funeral into a staged PR event. Comes across as ghoulish.

I suppose if the family, unprompted, invited Biden, that's maybe different, but it would be the sort of thing where you don't want to bring a bunch of cameras and media.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


The general pattern is trump being vile then Biden doing something that wipes out his lead. This has the potential to be a doozy.

rko
Jul 12, 2017
E: ^^^ it won’t be as bad as it could be, because Biden remains quite good at the kind of personal interactions that Trump has never been able to do. Trump has a long string of incredibly embarrassing moments where he demonstrates his inability to act like a normal human being for even one second; Biden will at least avoid making news by pissing off the people he’s supposed to be comforting.

Wicked Them Beats posted:

I suppose if the family, unprompted, invited Biden, that's maybe different, but it would be the sort of thing where you don't want to bring a bunch of cameras and media.

Even if the family invited him, going would be wrong, and there would be no way his presence wouldn’t massively overshadow the funeral. The campaign would be better served by suggesting a separate memorial and working with various other organizers to arrange for prominent people of color to speak, and even then, he would do well to minimize his role instead of delivering any political speeches.

Frankly, given the last two big public events he had included telling black people that their identity was contingent on supporting him and that cops should be trying to shoot to maim instead of murdering people, minimizing his role in the campaign is overall their best move.

Awesome election. Two old men, hiding in their basements from the world they created, and one will be president next year.

rko fucked around with this message at 10:01 on Jun 3, 2020

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear

rko posted:

https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1268052818637860865?s=21

Words can’t really express how contemptible this is.

Cornpop was a mutual acquaintance :nono:

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1268032803100332034

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Been waiting for someone to quote that speech of his in an ad

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1267969680830091266

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER


this is biden's probably biggest strength as a politician imo - he's able to show what seems to be genuine earnestness when talking about issues that impact people, and seems like a mostly pretty chill and empathetic guy

the trouble is that he's got a pretty vicious temper, which can serve to make him more relatable in some circumstances but which can also lead to completely bizarre situations like the charlamagne fiasco where he goes off in response to what is objectively pretty reasonable questioning

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1267926493927297026

It's hard to say anything more than what is already said here about how genuine Biden's 'left outreach' is, if these vermin are forming behind him.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

StratGoatCom posted:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1267926493927297026

It's hard to say anything more than what is already said here about how genuine Biden's 'left outreach' is, if these vermin are forming behind him.

It really doesn't say anything about Biden, it says something about Trump.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Jarmak posted:

It really doesn't say anything about Biden, it says something about Trump.

it also says quite a bit about biden

KVeezy3
Aug 18, 2005

Airport Music for Black Folk

Jarmak posted:

It really doesn't say anything about Biden, it says something about Trump.

You think Never Trumpers would have made a pro-Bernie super PAC?

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

KVeezy3 posted:

You think Never Trumpers would have made a pro-Bernie super PAC?

After the last two months? Absolutely

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Jarmak posted:

After the last two months? Absolutely

that's stupid

sanders is miles further from the frum set than trump is, and a much greater threat to the interests they represent than trump is

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Jarmak posted:

After the last two months? Absolutely

This isn't some alliance, this an attempt by republicans to further the rightwing degeneration of the dems. Nevertrumpers don't object to what Trump does, they object to his cultural signaling.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Jarmak posted:

After the last two months? Absolutely

this is straight up delusional.

they're ok with Biden because he's a social and fiscal conservative who won't upset the status quo.

edit: Biden's record and Bush's are pretty similar overall tbh

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Jarmak posted:

After the last two months? Absolutely

Yeah, I disagree strongly about that. Never Trumpers were pounding out anti-Bernie op eds until their fingers bled, and boosting Biden even when it seemed like he was totally dead in the water. I’d say it’s more of a reflection on Trump than Biden, but “just any Democrat” and certainly Bernie would not have been acceptable to them, and they would’ve just whined and boosted the lolbertarian or begged McMuffin to run again.

But given how fast things have deteriorated, maybe some would’ve supported Bernie. That would’ve been quite a sight.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


All that welcoming nevertrumpers in will achieve is locking out the poor and less 'photogenic' minorities, such as trans folks or black folks. Always remember, the only reason nevertrumpers hate him is that he signals wrong for them.

Which is probably why the dems are gonna do it, because it means they can get away with doing even less hard stuff.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

StratGoatCom posted:

This isn't some alliance, this an attempt by republicans to further the rightwing degeneration of the dems. Nevertrumpers don't object to what Trump does, they object to his cultural signaling.

Mellow Seas posted:

Yeah, I disagree strongly about that. Never Trumpers were pounding out anti-Bernie op eds until their fingers bled, and boosting Biden even when it seemed like he was totally dead in the water. I’d say it’s more of a reflection on Trump than Biden, but “just any Democrat” and certainly Bernie would not have been acceptable to them, and they would’ve just whined and boosted the lolbertarian or begged McMuffin to run again.

But given how fast things have deteriorated, maybe some would’ve supported Bernie. That would’ve been quite a sight.

Oh I don't disagree they would vastly prefer Biden over Bernie and worked to that end during the primaries, that should be obvious. The Lincoln Project people are folks playing the long game; I think they're operating from the perspective that Trump is an existential threat to the country (which he is). Bernie wasn't going to deliver full communism now even if the dems took the senate, there's just not enough support for anything overly radical in congress. I think they would have made the correct (from their perspective) analysis that tax rates can always be cut if they get power back and another New Deal is preferable to total collapse.



punishedkissinger posted:

this is straight up delusional.

they're ok with Biden because he's a social and fiscal conservative who won't upset the status quo.

edit: Biden's record and Bush's are pretty similar overall tbh


V. Illych L. posted:

that's stupid

sanders is miles further from the frum set than trump is, and a much greater threat to the interests they represent than trump is

This is straight projection all the way down.

edit: before the last few months I would have thought it a coin flip

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Jarmak posted:

Oh I don't disagree they would vastly prefer Biden over Bernie and worked to that end during the primaries, that should be obvious. The Lincoln Project people are folks playing the long game; I think they're operating from the perspective that Trump is an existential threat to the country (which he is). Bernie wasn't going to deliver full communism now even if the dems took the senate, there's just not enough support for anything overly radical in congress. I think they would have made the correct (from their perspective) analysis that tax rates can always be cut if they get power back and another New Deal is preferable to total collapse.



This is straight projection all the way down.

edit: before the last few months I would have thought it a coin flip

I bet you thought impeachment was slam dunk too

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

punishedkissinger posted:

I bet you thought impeachment was slam dunk too

Donald Trump was impeached :confused:.

They also got the first and only Senate vote in favor of impeachment from a member of the opposing party in American history.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Pick posted:

Donald Trump was impeached :confused:.

They also got the first and only Senate vote in favor of impeachment from a member of the opposing party in American history.

What an incredible success

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Jarmak posted:

Oh I don't disagree they would vastly prefer Biden over Bernie and worked to that end during the primaries, that should be obvious. The Lincoln Project people are folks playing the long game; I think they're operating from the perspective that Trump is an existential threat to the country (which he is). Bernie wasn't going to deliver full communism now even if the dems took the senate, there's just not enough support for anything overly radical in congress. I think they would have made the correct (from their perspective) analysis that tax rates can always be cut if they get power back and another New Deal is preferable to total collapse.



This is straight projection all the way down.

edit: before the last few months I would have thought it a coin flip

who stands to lose/gain what from a sanders presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a trump presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a biden presidency?

now bring this analysis over to the bush/trump divide. you'll find a great many security state/neocon civil society types among the nevertrumpers, and they're legitimately closer to the biden branch of the democratic party - remember that biden's a massive hawk - than they are to trump, whose lack of any coherent policy direction is not in their interest at all. they are *quite a lot* further from sanders, a noted dove, than they are from trump's haphazard idiocy

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

V. Illych L. posted:

who stands to lose/gain what from a sanders presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a trump presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a biden presidency?

now bring this analysis over to the bush/trump divide. you'll find a great many security state/neocon civil society types among the nevertrumpers, and they're legitimately closer to the biden branch of the democratic party - remember that biden's a massive hawk - than they are to trump, whose lack of any coherent policy direction is not in their interest at all. they are *quite a lot* further from sanders, a noted dove, than they are from trump's haphazard idiocy

The dems need to be doing more to reach out to warhawks from all sides of the aisle.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

punishedkissinger posted:

What an incredible success

Yes it was.

Anyone who thought Trump ever had a chance of getting convicted wasn't paying attention. Impeachment wasn't about removing Trump, it was about making it clear to the public that he was guilty and should be removed before the GOP inevitably acquitted him. I never expected one of them to break ranks and validate that so heavily.

rko
Jul 12, 2017
e: I literally can’t believe people are defending the impeachment. Yes, ideally, it would’ve dragged all of Trump’s scandals through the news again and made Republicans look awful. Instead, Pelosi focused it super tightly on the loving dumb Ukraine scandal. As a result, I think the primary result of impeachment is making sure everyone knows that Joe Biden’s family is corrupt as hell and changed literally zero minds about Trump.

Jarmak posted:

Oh I don't disagree they would vastly prefer Biden over Bernie and worked to that end during the primaries, that should be obvious. The Lincoln Project people are folks playing the long game; I think they're operating from the perspective that Trump is an existential threat to the country (which he is). Bernie wasn't going to deliver full communism now even if the dems took the senate, there's just not enough support for anything overly radical in congress. I think they would have made the correct (from their perspective) analysis that tax rates can always be cut if they get power back and another New Deal is preferable to total collapse.

This seems to be very wishful thinking. Do you think Bernie Sanders would be reacting like Joe Biden is to the present protest movement? Can you imagine how it might be different in a country where Sanders was ascendant? What demands he might feel comfortable making in the context of nationwide street protests and police brutality? And if he was strongly associated with a resurgent movement in the streets, the actual revolution he was talking about made manifest, you think David Frum et al. would be comfortable with this?

It’s a boring counterfactual in any case. The Democrats are clearly very much more interested in catering to the Never Trump crowd, and I’ve been told numerous times in this thread that it’s a strategy that’s guaranteed to work based on the 2018 results. So good luck to the Biden campaign!

rko fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Jun 3, 2020

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Jarmak posted:

Yes it was.

Anyone who thought Trump ever had a chance of getting convicted wasn't paying attention. Impeachment wasn't about removing Trump, it was about making it clear to the public that he was guilty and should be removed before the GOP inevitably acquitted him. I never expected one of them to break ranks and validate that so heavily.

his approval rating literally rose during impeachment. it was an abject failure on every single level.

RBA Starblade
Apr 28, 2008

Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

Pick posted:

Donald Trump was impeached :confused:.

They also got the first and only Senate vote in favor of impeachment from a member of the opposing party in American history.

A lot of people are under a lot of misconceptions about impeachment, it's an easy mistake for someone not in the know to make.

KVeezy3
Aug 18, 2005

Airport Music for Black Folk

V. Illych L. posted:

who stands to lose/gain what from a sanders presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a trump presidency? who stands to lose/gain what from a biden presidency?

now bring this analysis over to the bush/trump divide. you'll find a great many security state/neocon civil society types among the nevertrumpers, and they're legitimately closer to the biden branch of the democratic party - remember that biden's a massive hawk - than they are to trump, whose lack of any coherent policy direction is not in their interest at all. they are *quite a lot* further from sanders, a noted dove, than they are from trump's haphazard idiocy


Right, Trump as president is a visible stain on U.S.'s reputation, which directly affects their ability to enact the same old foreign policy. After Bush Jr, a large section of the ruling class backed Obama, as they knew they could leverage his immense global popularity to put a shiny new coat on US imperialism.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

i never even suggested he wasn't impeached btw, that's something you imagined.

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V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

everyone already knew that trump was a crook, but nobody cares because they perceive every politician as a crook

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