uninterrupted posted:

there's actually no reason to hold new elections, as he fairly and legitimately won the last ones

SlothfulCobra posted:

Might as well post this here. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53262767


Which, obviously it's not good for a country in a crisis and mired in debt to lose access to its gold reserve. Functionally, this isn't an active decision by the UK government, it's a consequence from them already having declared Maduro's presidency illegitimate. I don't see them changing their minds on that without some kind of move on Maduro's part.

Even assuming the best of Maduro (which is a whole lot), I really don't see any way of him maneuvering Venezuela out of the situation it's in without somehow stepping down, although it'd be better if they could hold new elections instead of handing things to an unelected Guaido.

SlothfulCobra posted:

Might as well post this here. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53262767


Which, obviously it's not good for a country in a crisis and mired in debt to lose access to its gold reserve. Functionally, this isn't an active decision by the UK government, it's a consequence from them already having declared Maduro's presidency illegitimate. I don't see them changing their minds on that without some kind of move on Maduro's part.

Even assuming the best of Maduro (which is a whole lot), I really don't see any way of him maneuvering Venezuela out of the situation it's in without somehow stepping down, although it'd be better if they could hold new elections instead of handing things to an unelected Guaido.

Jose posted:

I can't wait to see how some posters itt defend the current government for cancelling elections/refusing to accept the results

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/1280537047263051778

punk rebel ecks posted:

Lmao, second place is a party that is also center left. The current party has less than a sixth of the vote. What a disaster in terms of public popularity.

Darth Walrus posted:

Be careful about who you define as 'centre left'. Mesa was the guy whose run against Morales triggered the coup in the first place. It's probably a very good thing that Anez got high enough on her own supply to run on her own rather than acting as the caretaker for Mesa as the real president, and that Camacho then decided to split the vote even further.

Darth Walrus posted:

It's probably a very good thing that Anez got high enough on her own supply to run on her own rather than acting as the caretaker for Mesa as the real president, and that Camacho then decided to split the vote even further.

Squalid posted:

word is she was thinking that by delaying the election and successfully managing the coronavirus crisis, she could boost her public image enough to win despite beginning her campaign already underwater in the polls.

Presumably she thought that because she is incredibly stupid, lmao what kind of idiot intentionally takes credit for a massive plague and economic crisis? The MAS coming back in would probably be a pretty good outcome for democracy. You get to keep the left wing party in charge without having the individuals responsible for the fraud get away with it.

Regardless the Bolivian economy has been boned extra hard by coronavirus since it has caused a collapse in demand for their exports. That's going to be a huge problem for whoever becomes President.

Squalid posted:

The MAS coming back in would probably be a pretty good outcome for democracy. You get to keep the left wing party in charge without having the individuals responsible for the fraud get away with it.

Darth Walrus posted:

https://twitter.com/portaldaband/status/1280284990031478793?s=21

Bolsonaro's got the 'rona, and he's taking hydroxychloroquine.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

what fraud, squalid

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

what fraud, squalid

forkboy84 posted:

Ah yes, the fraud. The fraud that definitely happened. And wasn't just the OAS doing what they always do and muddying the water around a successful left-wing, indigenous politician with a record of opposing Yankee companies exploitation of their nature resources.

V. Illych L. posted:

squalid why are you still riding this ridiculous horse after the preliminary report's smoking gun, its statistical analysis, has been generally accepted to have been debunked

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is he really?

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is he really?

Squalid posted:

Why the blatant and virtually undisputed electoral fraud perpetrated by the Bolivian government under Morales, of course. I didn't feel my statement was particularly ambiguous.


When else has the OAS muddied the waters against left wing politicians? I'm not even sure what specifically you are accusing them of.

I've been trying to find examples of other times the OAS has exploited the trust granted to it by leaders like Chavez and Morales, and thus far I haven't found any examples. I really have no idea what history you are referring to.

V. Illych L. posted:

squalid why are you still riding this ridiculous horse after the preliminary report's smoking gun, its statistical analysis, has been generally accepted to have been debunked

V. Illych L. posted:

i don't think he is, but this particular point seems to have turned into a matter of prestige or something

like, the defence of the coup was based on the preliminary report, and nothing in the preliminary report indicated widespread, systematic fraud except for the statistical analysis of the count. it did point out some legitimate weaknesses and irregularities, but nothing else that constitutes a smoking gun to the extent that a coup might be justified

quote:

La empresa Ethical Hacking Consultores, con sede en Panamá, contratada por el Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) para realizar la auditoría informática del proceso electoral del pasado 20 de octubre en Bolivia, presentó un informe que consignan 11 conclusiones y observaciones.

En el trabajo realizado, según el gerente general de Ethical Hacking, Álvaro Andrade, se logró identificar una serie de 'vulnerabilidades en el sistema' antes de las elecciones, mismas que no fueron subsanadas. Situación que lo llevó a determinar que "el proceso electoral en Bolivia está viciado de nulidad".

uninterrupted posted:

The vote count was so obviously manipulated that the opposition went out burning boxes full of ballots so they couldn’t be counted and then installed an unelected dictator

quote:

El vicepresidente del Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), Antonio Costas renunció al cargo de manera irrevocable, en medio de una ola de protestas que apuntan a un posible fraude tras el giro que dieron los resultados electorales en menos de 24 horas.

A través de una nota dirigida al vicepresidente del Estado, Álvaro García Linera hizo oficial su renuncia. "Por intermedio de la presente hago conocer a usted mi renuncia irrevocable al cargo de Vocal del Tribunal Supremo Electoral, cargo al que accedí mediante una convocatoria pública el 10 de julio de 2015", se lee en la misma.

Calificó de "desatinada" la decisión del TSE de interrumpir el Transmisión Rápida y Segura de Actas de Resultados Preliminares de Actas en Recinto (TREP) del TSE el pasado domingo en la noche. "La desatinada decisión de la sala del Tribunal Supremo Electoral de suspender la publicación de los resultados preliminares electorales -TREP", son el motivo de su alejamiento, mencionó.

El vocal Costas presentó su renuncia al cargo en medio de una crisis política a consecuencia de la variación -durante la interrupción del TREP- de los resultados de conteo rápido de las elecciones Generales, que ha generado una ola de violencia en todo el país.

Remarcó que no participó de la decisión de interrumpir la transmisión pese a ser Vicepresidente del TSE. "Situación que derivó en la desacreditación de todo el proceso electoral, ocasionando una innecesaria convulsión social, que espero sea pronto solucionada", dijo.

Costas no participó hoy de la Sala Plena del TSE y en la tarde se conoció su determinación, la misma que finalizó sosteniendo que "primero está Bolivia".

Squalid posted:

Uh you know MAS is still practically running Bolivia right? Like even without the Presidency they are still the most powerful party. Even with Anez's fuckery that hasn't changed.

Generally speaking angry mobs are not particularly known for their well thought out and reasonable behavior, so I'm not sure what you want me to say.

https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/10/22/antonio-costas-renuncia-al-tse-de-manera-irrevocable-235192.html#!

Squalid posted:

Uh you know MAS is still practically running Bolivia right? Like even without the Presidency they are still the most powerful party. Even with Anez's fuckery that hasn't changed.

Generally speaking angry mobs are not particularly known for their well thought out and reasonable behavior, so I'm not sure what you want me to say.

https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/10/22/antonio-costas-renuncia-al-tse-de-manera-irrevocable-235192.html#!

joepinetree posted:

This is pathetic.

Having the most mayors isn't running the country. Because, for starters, you don't control the military.

No one with an ounce of intellectual honesty would deny that what happened was a coup. Anyone who still insists it wasn't a coup can be dismissed as deeply unserious.

quote:

El comandante en jefe de las Fuerzas Armadas de Bolivia (FFAA), Williams Kaliman, recordó en su mensaje por los 194 años de creación de esta institución, que esta institución militar "morirá anticolonialista". [machine translation: that this military institution "will die anticolonialist."]

El acto de homenaje a los 194 años de creación de las Fuerzas Armadas se llevó a cabo en el El Alto con la presencia del presidente Evo Morales, autoridades nacionales e instituciones militares y representantes de los movimientos sociales.

"Las Fuerzas Armadas nacimos durante la lucha contra la colonia y moriremos anticolonialistas porque es nuestro orgullo y nuestra razón de vida.(...). Las Fuerzas Armadas son del pueblo y trabajan para el pueblo porque apoyamos a la nacionalización de hidrocarburos y las políticas de Estado que favorecen a los más necesitados" ["The Armed Forces were born during the fight against the colony and we will die anticolonialists because it is our pride and our reason for life . (...). The Armed Forces belong to the people and work for the people because we support the nationalization of hydrocarbons and the State policies that favor those most in need, "], aseveró efusivo.

Kaliman dirigió parte de su mensaje a los que denominó "antinacionalistas" que " por su apetito de poder, pretenden cambiar la jerarquía de las FFAA, con oscuras intenciones" ["anti-nationalists" who "with their appetite for power, intend to change the hierarchy of the Armed Forces, with dark intentions,"], y dijo que no será permitido.

Squalid posted:

and i have repeatedly called it a coup. Where i diverge from people here, is it seems clear to me Morales was attempting to perform an autocoup by subverting the electoral process. In that attempt he failed but only narrowly. .

Squalid posted:

And while it's fair to call what happened a coup as far as I can tell there is literally no evidence that it was pre-planned or organized by anyone.

quote:

https://mronline.org/2019/11/26/evidence-talks-u-s-government-propelled-coup-in-bolivia/

Evidence of the U.S. crime appears below. It’s about money, U.S. influence within the Bolivian military, and U.S. control of the Organization of American States (OAS).

1. For many years the Santa Cruz Civic Committee and its proto-fascist Youth Union received funding from the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy. According to analyst Eva Golinger some years ago, the USAID provided $84 million to Bolivian opposition groups.

U.S. Embassy officials conspired with and paid the “civic committees” of Bolivia’s four eastern departments. Representing the European-descended elite of Bolivia’s wealthiest region, these groups promoted racist assaults. They concocted a separatist movement and tried to assassinate Morales. In response, the Bolivian government expelled the U.S. ambassador, Drug Enforcement Agency, and U. S. Agency for International Development.

2. Bolivian armed forces head Williams Kaliman on November 10 “suggested” that Morales resign. That was the coup de grace. Within three days, Kaliman himself had resigned and moved to the United States. Sullkata M. Quilla of the Latin American Center for Strategic Analysis explains that Kaliman and other military chiefs each had received $1 million and that top police officiers received $500,000 apiece. U.S. Chargee d’affaires Bruce Williamson allegedly arranged for monetary transactions that took place in Argentina’s Jujuy Province – immediately south of Bolivia – under the auspices of Governor Gerardo Morales. The story first appeared on the website com.ar.

3. Money flowed freely prior to Evo Morales’s departure. Bolivian ambassador to the United Nations Sacha Llorenti—a Morales supporter—reported that, “loyal members of [Morales’s] security team showed him messages in which people were offering them $50,000 if they would hand him over.”

4. According to the respected Argentinean journalist Stella Calloni, Ivanka Trump arrived in Jujuy on September 4-5 ostensibly to honor a small group of women entrepreneurs. Some “2,500 federal agents” and Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan accompanied her. At the same time, Governor Gerardo Morales was informed that the United States would be delivering $400 million supposedly to pay for improvements to a big highway in Argentina. Cattaloni suggests that a freight train running through Jujuy en route to Santa Cruz, the center of anti- Morales plotting in Bolivia, was transporting military equipment to opposition groups.

There’s media speculation as to how Governor Morales may have facilitated the transfer of U.S. money to Luis Camacho, leader of the coup and head of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee. He may have done so in Santa Cruz, where he visited on September 4, or in Jujuy Province where Camacho may have showed up later that day or the next.

5. According to analyst Jeb Sprague, “At least six of the key coup plotters are alumni of the infamous School of the Americas, while [General] Kaliman and another figure served in the past as Bolivia’s military and police attachés in Washington.” For decades, Latin American military personnel have received training and indoctrination at that U.S. Army school now called the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation.

Sprague notes also that the top commanders of police that mutinied had received training at the Washington-based Latin American police exchange program known by its initials in Spanish as APALA.

6. The OAS played a crucial role in the coup. Votes were being tallied on October 20 when the OAS, having audited preliminary results, announced that they showed irregularities. The U.S. government echoed the findings and street protests intensified. On October 24 the Supreme Electoral Tribunal declared first-round victories for Morales and García Linare. Protests mounted. The government, under stress, requested another OAS audit.

The OAS made its conclusions public on November 10, earlier than expected. The OAS couldn’t “validate the results of this election.” It called for “another electoral process [and] new electoral authorities.” This was the tipping point. Morales convoked another election but shortly thereafter General Kaliman forced him to resign.

The OAS findings were false. Walter Mebane and colleagues at the University of Michigan, having examined voting statistics, indicated that “fraudulent votes in the election were not decisive for the result.” The Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research performed its own detailed study and reached the same conclusion.

The OAS served as U.S. handmaiden. Headquartered in Washington, the organization took shape under U.S. auspices in 1948 with the assigned task of protecting Latin America and the Caribbean from Communism. More recently the OAS, under Secretary General Luis Almagro’s guidance, has spearheaded U.S. efforts to expel President Nicolas Maduro’s progressive Venezuelan government.

Paradoxically, Almagro in May 2019 gave Morales the go-ahead for a fourth presidential term. That was despite a referendum having been defeated that would have allowed the extra term. Almago’s intention may have been to lull Morales into cooperating with OAS overview of the election results.

Other signs of U.S. coup preparations

Prior to the October 20 elections President Morales charged that U.S. Embassy officials bribed rural residents to reject him at the polls. They traveled, for example, to the Yungas region on October 16 with pay-offs to disaffected coca farmers.

According to com, the National Military Coordinator (Coordinadora Nacional Militar), an organization of reserve military officers, received and distributed money sent from the United States “to create a state of social crisis prior to October 20.” The United States also used “accredited embassies in Bolivia and the evangelical church as facades so as not to be seen as implicated.” Mariane Scott and Rolf A. Olson, U.S. Embassy officials in La Paz, met with counterparts in the embassies of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina to coordinate destabilization efforts and “to deliver U.S. financing to opposition forces inside Bolivia.”

Weapons shipments from the United States arrived at the Chilean port of Iquique on their way to the National Military Coordinator group inside Bolivia.

The State Department allocated $100,000 to enable a company called “CLS Strategies” to mount a disinformation campaign through social media.

The CIA station in La Paz assumed control of Bolivia’s Whatsapp network in order to leak false information. More than 68,000 fake anti-Morales tweets were released.

In mid-October “political consultant” George Eli Birnbaun arrived in Santa Cruz from Washington with a team of military and civilian personnel. Their job was to support the U.S.—preferred presidential candidacy of Oscar Ortiz and to “destabilize the country politically and socially after the elections.” They provided support for Santa Cruz Civic Committee’s youth organization – specialists in violence – and supervised the U.S. – financed “Standing Rivers” NGO, engaged in spreading disinformation.

Sixteen audio recordings of the plotters’ pre-election conversations were leaked and showed up on the internet. Several of the voices mentioned contacts with the U.S. Embassy and with U.S. Senators Ted Cruz, Robert Menendez, and Marco Rubio. Sprague reports that four of the ex-military plotters on the calls had attended the School of the Americas.

quote:

Bolivia’s top electoral authority stopped announcing new results at 7:45 p.m. Sunday — a point at which Morales had a lead of 45.3 percent to 38.2 percent over the second-place candidate, former president Carlos Mesa. On Monday night, the body renewed its “quick” count and said that with 95 percent of votes counted, Morales led 46.41 percent to Mesa’s 37.07 percent[\quote]

here they're already emphasising the need for a ten-point lead for a first round victory and the quick-count stuff

10th of november they're reporting his resignation directly linked to the OAS preliminary report:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...acaa_story.html

following the coup, the new york times again chooses to emphasise the statistical argument in regards to the election's inadmissibility, though it's at this point hedging against the emerging criticism of the regression model and is taking the OAS' erroneous account of the quick count delay as given:

[quote]In their initial statements and a preliminary audit following the election, the O.A.S. officials called the sudden change in the voting trend “statistically unlikely.” The comments triggered criticism from some economists and statisticians in the United States, who argued that the change could be explained by strong support for Mr. Morales in the outstanding precincts.

Those critics, however, have not addressed the accusations of hidden data servers, forged signatures and other irregularities found by the O.A.S. observers, nor have they tried to explain the electoral council’s sudden decision to stop the count

V. Illych L. posted:

so, re the importance of the regression in legitimising the coup, wapo's world digest of october 21 writes this:


there are other irregularities to the election, but such irregularities are not exceptional, and certainly wouldn't trigger a coup in any latin american government that the US doesn't want to remove. the major, big thing that they spend time talking about around when the coup is ongoing is the quick count and statistical argument from the preliminary report. this figured heavily on international televised coverage as well - it was the signature smoking gun.

the coup seems to have been mostly based in the police, and morales' allies in the military seem, as you say, to have been rather half-hearted about the whole affair, which if anything strengthens the case for pretty direct US pressure

in fact, the New York Times itself seems happy to admit that the regression argument was a very important part of the case for the coup in retrospect, as stated here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/americas/bolivia-election-evo-morales.html

it remains baffling to me that you refuse to acknowledge this pretty obvious point except as a matter of posting honour

vyelkin posted:

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

you see, the military coup was a good thing, because Evo Morales was in danger of performing a coup, by continuing to win elections - man definitely not engaged in apologia for a coup