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peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.
porn consumption in Canada is about to plummet as well because now we can all jerk it to this.

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triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
I won't lie I mainly want house prices to plummet so I can be smug with my in-laws for a while that I didn't buy a house when they thought I should

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

On the CBC today they had an article on Greece and Japan's most recent financial woes and it mentioned that many experts are worried that those countries who are experiencing crashes may give up on capitalism and turn to [Communist?] alternatives :wth:

Mexplosivo
Mar 8, 2007

The monetary system is not ratified by society yet it shapes and dictates our entire existence...

Seat Safety Switch posted:

About 12 per cent of Canadian households are considered to be extremely indebted — which means they have a debt-to-income ratio of at least 250 per cent.

Anything under 250% is a-ok per Central Bank know-it-all, good to know.

"Just go ahead and put the goal posts wherever you like, it will make absolutely no difference when the pyramid implodes..."

What are the odds that when credit dries up for those indebted 250% it will also dry up for those indebted let's say 100%? I do wonder...

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Professor Shark posted:

On the CBC today they had an article on Greece and Japan's most recent financial woes and it mentioned that many experts are worried that those countries who are experiencing crashes may give up on capitalism and turn to [Communist?] alternatives :wth:

Unfortunately this is the most likely "alternative" we will see in Greece:

Amgard
Dec 28, 2006

Canadian fascism is the only correct fascism.

Drive the undesirables from New Brunswick and settle it with Strong, Stable, Conservative Albertans

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism.

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Baronjutter posted:

Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism.

Japan's always had a revanchist bent over WWII and the equivalent of holocaust deniers in the upper echelons of government and other institutions.

From what I heard, most people in Japan don't bother to vote, so the ultranationist wingnuts and rice farmers wield outsized political power (not at all dissimilar to why the Tea Party is electable at all down here).

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Dec 10, 2014

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Baronjutter posted:

Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism.

Well duh, the ramming through of "democratic capitalism" via gun-barrel throughout the 20th century didn't magically erase thousands of years of human nature, as much as cornucopian revisionists would have you believe otherwise.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Japan is a super weird place, politically. They also have a pretty interesting housing market too.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Here's a couple hundred golden examples of Canadian fiscal idiocy.


Baronjutter posted:

Japan is a super weird place, politically. They also have a pretty interesting housing market too.

Yeah, it'd be fascinating to see where they went with things if they decided to ditch democracy. The country has always come up with systems that beggar ones imagination.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baudin posted:

Lower price of oil is, if it remains this way for more than a year, very bad for just about every facet of Alberta's economy. This includes, but is not limited to, public services (because the Tories are short sighted traditionally and will cut services to the bone), retail (because no one will buy expensive crap if they're under/unemployed), housing (because no one can afford a mortgage with certainty), and obviously oil services (because they're the ones under/unemployed). Welp, wish we had saved all that fat cash we got during the boom. Again.

Yeah not mention things like the province budget assumed a certain price for oil which is no longer true:
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Surplus+could+shrink+further+face+lower+prices+Alberta+finance+minister+warns/10436755/story.html

quote:

“There’s a chance the surplus could be a lot smaller than we’ve said, for sure, but we will run in the black,” he told reporters.

In its spring budget, the government banked on an average price of $95.22 for West Texas Intermediate oil, but plunging prices since then prompted a downward revision in its second-quarter fiscal update Nov. 26.

The revised forecast — based on oil remaining at $75 US from now until the end of the fiscal year — called for an average WTI price of $88.88 for all of fiscal 2014-1

The whole belt tightening will also have a tickle down effect through things such as layoffs or reducing capital equipment spending.

Baudin
Dec 31, 2009
The budget is always wrong because they always assume the price of oil will be a certain price and then the market happens. I honestly don't blame them, it's not like we have a crystal ball and can predict oil prices completely accurately.

What gets my goat is the idea that it's brilliant economic stewardship when they forecast a rise in revenue (due to increasing oil prices) and blame oil prices instead of their management when they fall.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baudin posted:

The budget is always wrong because they always assume the price of oil will be a certain price and then the market happens. I honestly don't blame them, it's not like we have a crystal ball and can predict oil prices completely accurately.

What gets my goat is the idea that it's brilliant economic stewardship when they forecast a rise in revenue (due to increasing oil prices) and blame oil prices instead of their management when they fall.

Not to mention having a few year feast period in which brent crude was around a 100 dollars a barrel.

Baudin
Dec 31, 2009

etalian posted:

Not to mention having a few year feast period in which brent crude was around a 100 dollars a barrel.

Which a lot of people assumed would stay there permanently. New normal, and all that. Sometimes I swear to god I'm the only one that remembers the 80's (which I don't, really, but it seems to have stayed with me longer than most).

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baudin posted:

Which a lot of people assumed would stay there permanently. New normal, and all that. Sometimes I swear to god I'm the only one that remembers the 80's (which I don't, really, but it seems to have stayed with me longer than most).

Alberta has a diverse economy too:

Baudin
Dec 31, 2009
That's not diverse. A lot of the secondary markets are based off servicing oil companies/workers which means they're vulnerable to oil shocks too. Look at Edmonton's downtown office market in the late 80's - it was crippled due to oversupply (which should scare a lot of companies investing in older towers downtown right now I suspect) and stayed that way for over a decade.

e: there were other reasons for that disaster - Jan Reimer, the mayor for the early 90's was very unfriendly to business, and drove companies to Calgary. They stayed there.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Baudin posted:

That's not diverse.

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. One quarter energy, one quarter FIRE (including construction)... ouch.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
It's a good thing Alberta has this wealth fund to fall back on in hard times like every other petrostate

David Corbett
Feb 6, 2008

Courage, my friends; 'tis not too late to build a better world.

eXXon posted:

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. One quarter energy, one quarter FIRE (including construction)... ouch.

If you take a look at Canada's economy by NAICS segment, it's actually not very far off of from this. Let he without sin cast the first stone, and so on. Real estate and rental (not including financing, insurance, or construction!) is actually the biggest single economic category in Canada already.

The conclusion is that Canada's economy is built on a house of cards. That are also houses. Bad news.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
So do we all think this is the beginning of the end then?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Not according to housing starts.

mik
Oct 16, 2003
oh
I'm glad I get paid in USD. Thanks Alberta. Thalberta.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Rime posted:

Yeah, it'd be fascinating to see where [Japan] went with things if they decided to ditch democracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

Hope this helps. NMS.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Meh. The US gave them all full immunity and then shipped a couple high rankers over to do human experimentation with biological warfare agents in Maryland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Detrick#Testing_performed_on_Seventh-day_Adventists.2C_1940-1974

Pointing at some brutality from 80 years ago is relatively useless, given the radical psychological upheavals in Japanese society post-WWII.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report...?service=mobile

quote:

Stephen Poloz might have himself a housing bubble after all. How well he deals with it may well define his tenure as Canada’s central bank governor.

The Bank of Canada dropped a bombshell Wednesday in its twice-annual Financial System Review (FSR), saying that its new model for assessing housing valuations estimates that Canadian house prices are between 10 to 30 per cent overvalued. Now granted, that’s a big range, but it’s the strongest statement yet from the central bank of just how overstretched Canada’s housing sector might be.

At the 30-per-cent top of the range – about the biggest estimate we’ve seen anywhere – this would constitute a serious housing bubble. (Consider that when last decade’s massive U.S. bubble burst, the ultimate damage was a 35-per-cent decline before it found solid footing again.) Even if you took the midpoint, 20 per cent, that’s a huge overhang. And as the Bank of Canada noted, the estimated overvaluation range is in line with what the same model shows for the early 1980s and early 1990s – both of which were followed by housing corrections in the 10-per-cent range and, notably, recessions.

Economists at Canada’s big banks were quick to play down the overvaluation estimate, noting that the Bank of Canada itself characterized the risk of a big housing correction as “low” and is still confident about a soft landing for the sector. But consider this: The central bank dedicated a special information box to the issue in the FSR. It issued a separate report on housing-market valuations in conjunction with the FSR. And Mr. Poloz specifically addressed the overvaluation estimate in his opening statement for the press conference that followed the FSR’s release. The central bank isn’t in the habit of talking about things, at length, that it doesn’t consider important. It doesn’t start new conversations unless it wants to put an issue on the public radar screen. This matters.

Indeed, it may be the one big economic hurdle Mr. Poloz still has to overcome if he is going to successfully steer Canada’s economy back to something resembling normal – a state we haven’t seen since before the 2008 financial crisis and recession. The overshoot of the housing market, and the related bloating of household debt, represent the albatross Canada still bears from its efforts to defend its economy from disaster in the depths of the global economic and financial crisis. The federal budget deficit has been eliminated, economic growth and exports and even jobs are coming back. But we needed ultra-low interest rates to breathe life into the economy – and the price is a hyperventilated housing market.

The problem is what happens when we start to shut off the ventilator. The Bank of Canada is probably only six months away from having to start seriously contemplating its first interest-rate increases since 2010, as the growing economy absorbs its excess capacity. In those 1980s and 1990s corrections, it was the arrival of rising interest rates that toppled the housing market from its lofty perch.

One thing the central bank is, well, banking on is that the current housing overshoot has come in the absence on an inflation problem. In both the early 1980s and the early 1990s, policy makers needed to jack up interest rates pretty quickly to fight a surge in inflation – to which a spike in housing prices was a significant contributor. By contrast, the bank has been adamant that inflation is no threat today, and housing prices haven’t experienced a recent surge.

Still, the possible extent of the housing overshoot leaves Mr. Poloz with a pivotal policy dilemma. On the one hand, the longer the central bank keeps its policy rates low, the more gasoline it pours on an already roaring housing market.

On the other hand, the housing boom may have reached such proportions that pulling the interest-rate rug out from under it could destabilize it, and the economic consequences could be severe. Meanwhile, the economy creeps closer to the point where rate hikes would normally be prudent and warranted; wait too long and you have a whole new set of problems on your hands.

In trying to assess what route Mr. Poloz will take, probably the most important thing to remember is this: He has made it abundantly clear that he cares more about downside risks than upside, as they pose the bigger danger to Canada’s economic well-being.

The biggest risk to the housing overshoot would appear to be raising rates too high, too soon, and toppling the whole apple cart. The central bank’s new housing analysis adds to the list of reasons the bank will err on the side of starting rate increases later, and raising them slower than might normally be warranted.

It will almost certainly be the most important call of Mr. Poloz’s tenure. History will one day tell us if he got it right.


it's ok guys, the market's 30% overvalued but there will be a soft landing anyway

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe


https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/542706397683941376/photo/1

EvilJoven
Mar 18, 2005

NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?
Fun Shoe
The 5 Stages of Housing Bubbles: (welcome to stage 3)

1) Denial - "There is no housing bubble, prices can only keep going up, Up, UP! :jerkbag:

2) Anger - "Bullshit, there's no housing bubble. You're a fool to not buy, why aren't you buying!?! :bahgawd:

3) Bargaining - "OK so there's a housing bubble but it won't be bad I'm sure the government and banks will fix this and we'll have a soft landing." :ohdear:

4) Depression - "Our mortgage is due and we apparently owe 30 thousand dollars more than our house is worth. The bank wants it by the end of the month or we lose the house." :smith:

5) Acceptance - "LOL Welp" :suicide:

EvilJoven fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Dec 11, 2014

Hal_2005
Feb 23, 2007
Just so long as you remember a 30% bubble in housing means that the average Canadian middle class family is looking at a 30% deflation in their leverage then it's a great market call. If we use TD Econ's retail rates, the home and the second loan on a Canadian home is what makes most of a family's working capital and average annual discretionary cash flow is about 10% of assets in Canada then we are looking at about a deficit of 20% aggregate spending in Canada by 2016. That's also very good, because the largest whiners about housing prices in Canada are those in service sectors, or net-recipients of provincial transfer payments.

So: if Steve's call was for a balance sheet recession driven by the collapse in crude prices, from Alberta to suddenly make things affordable for the average poor goon, that also assumes the poor little goon can 1.) get a loan given FICO ratings and lending standards shoot up exponentially when rates rise back to 4%/a, and 2.) that goon raging for 2 years, will keep their job at the current wage.

Oh, and on top of that, inflation next year in Canada is expected to still go up at about 3%/y, due to the inflation being pumped in via food and imports.

In short, and there is a pun in there, the market crunch today was pretty much everyone smart moving out of leveraged assets to US dollar or another hard currency. BoC basically said they will refuse to do any sort of QE to bailout distressed accounts, and it is likely 1 in 7 Canadians will see a material change in their consumer purchasing habits. IE: if you are expecting to be employed and making more than 88,000.00 CAD in 2017, you will be in the top 20% of Canada. I've been tracking this thread since inception, and on average the last time Canada suffered a balance sheet recession was 1987, and extended by Pierre Trudeau well into 1996. In the first 2 years after the initial crunch led by Alberta, non-core unemployment in the 18-35 cohort hit 18%. That was not including all the neckbeards who just straight up left Canada, which is in the CANSIM data sets. If someone really wants to get into a grudge match.

Just something to chew on, as this thread progresses through 2H15. It's all fun and games until you, the guy dreaming of a credit crunch actually lives through one.

I'd love to get a poll from everyone, esp those who have followed this thread since its inception back in 2013 (2012) as to who is actually juiced up about this recession and is actually planning to take out a 250,000 CAD mortgage at the 2.00 ar rates right now, or intends to in the next 10 months. Then compare that to those or other posters in 2016. If SA lasts that long

The other part Poloz did not talk about in the soundbite or press release, but was asked in the Lockup by a reporter was the exodus of Vancouver property premiums, and by extension Chinese passport homebuyers. Note, the USA recently opened up passports for sale program, like Harper just shut down and the current BoC data implies Vancouver will definitely see a crash as most of the Oligarchs move their 10-condo bolthole investments to Las Vegas or DC.

Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Dec 11, 2014

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Hal_2005 posted:

I'd love to get a poll from everyone, esp those who have followed this thread since its inception back in 2013 (2012) as to who is actually juiced up about this recession and is actually planning to take out a 250,000 CAD mortgage at the 2.00 ar rates right now, or intends to in the next 10 months. Then compare that to those or other posters in 2016. If SA lasts that long



Come at me bro.

ps. great post

e: I don't intend on borrowing money from the bank right now or any time in the near future simply because I feel entitled buy a house at a price where I will be free and clear, or very close to. I don't drive a fancy car and I own it outright. I have no debts and I haven't carried a balance on an unsecured loan since maybe 2001. I graduated from university back when tuition was like $1250 per semester (or was that a year?).

Most of my rage in this thread stems from a massive entitlement complex that my quality of life is being diluted by people willing to shoulder large amounts of debt. When I see someone driving down the street in a new 3 series, parking in my rented condo's lot, I think to myself, yeah that loving rear end in a top hat is part of the problem and the reason I'm renting a place to live is because I lack 'vision', enough to think that 300k/600k/800k worth of mortgage debt is ridiculous even if the payments are affordable. Because holy gently caress, doesn't anyone want to live mortgage free anymore?

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Dec 11, 2014

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

EvilJoven posted:

5) Acceptance - "Don't worry guys, the CMHC'll cover this, and putting interest rates back down will give us more cheap credit to learn nothing and ruin some other market!"

fixed

AVeryLargeRadish
Aug 19, 2011

I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

Cultural Imperial posted:

Come at me bro.

ps. great post

e: I don't intend on borrowing money from the bank right now or any time in the near future simply because I feel entitled buy a house at a price where I will be free and clear, or very close to. I don't drive a fancy car and I own it outright. I have no debts and I haven't carried a balance on an unsecured loan since maybe 2001. I graduated from university back when tuition was like $1250 per semester (or was that a year?).

Most of my rage in this thread stems from a massive entitlement complex that my quality of life is being diluted by people willing to shoulder large amounts of debt. When I see someone driving down the street in a new 3 series, parking in my rented condo's lot, I think to myself, yeah that loving rear end in a top hat is part of the problem and the reason I'm renting a place to live is because I lack 'vision', enough to think that 300k/600k/800k worth of mortgage debt is ridiculous even if the payments are affordable. Because holy gently caress, doesn't anyone want to live mortgage free anymore?

Jealousy sure is ugly.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

AVeryLargeRadish posted:

Jealousy sure is ugly.

This comment doesn't even make sense. How is it jealousy to disapprove of irresponsible borrowing and consumption, upon which it will fall to the rest of us to stump up and bail out when it inevitably goes tits up?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/1236578/relaxed-rent-control-would-create-crisis-in-vancouver-ndp-mla/

quote:

Vancouver renters could be thrown in crisis if the provincial government reforms the current rent increase structure, warns NDP MLA David Eby.

The representative for Vancouver-Point Grey is speaking out against media reports this week that Rich Coleman, minister responsible for housing, is considering relaxing the rules to allow landlords to increase annual rents beyond the current limit (two per cent plus inflation).

“Reform could create a real crisis for a large group of vulnerable tenants,” said Eby, who expressed surprise at Coleman’s comments.

Eby said landlords can already set rents at whatever rate they’d like between tenants and are also allowed to apply for rent increases for existing tenants beyond two per cent at the Residential Tenancy Branch if they face rising costs.

Eby said that structure is sufficient in a city where half of renters already spend more than 30 per cent of their gross income on rent, and another quarter spend more than 50 per cent of their income on rent, according to a recent B.C. Non-Profit Housing Association report.

“People could find themselves in a situation where they can no longer afford their home,” Eby said.

Coleman was not available for comment, but a statement provided to Metro from his ministry said “no decision has been made.”

“There is a new proposal to change the current formula in order to encourage the development and maintenance of rental housing,” the statement reads. “Our goal is to balance landlords’ need for a fair return on investment while keeping rental housing affordable.”

The current limits on rent increases and rising costs for landlords can “discourage” growth in rental supply, the ministry said.


hahahahahaha

oh dear god I hope coleman does this

Buskas
Aug 31, 2004
?

Rime posted:

The average annual snowfall for Windsor is a piddly 50 inches over 44 days. I stand by my statement that when faced with 3-4 feet of snowfall in two days, most Canadians would have a panic attack and act like Floridians. :colbert:

You're an idiot, everywhere in Canada gets this at least every few winters. Some places regularly. The east coast gets epic snowstorms that trap people in houses for days.

lol interior BC is the real winter Canada

Go explore your country you twat.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Apart from Montreal, the rest of Canada needs to be cleansed with fire. If you're going to travel, save your money and go somewhere worthwhile. ie, leave Canada.

Buskas
Aug 31, 2004
?

triplexpac posted:

I won't lie I mainly want house prices to plummet so I can be smug with my in-laws for a while that I didn't buy a house when they thought I should

This except with all my smug coworkers who just bought houses and informed me I was making a mistake not buying into Vancouver before it's too late. Enjoy your million dollar mortgage, dick.

Buskas
Aug 31, 2004
?

Lexicon posted:

This comment doesn't even make sense. How is it jealousy to disapprove of irresponsible borrowing and consumption, upon which it will fall to the rest of us to stump up and bail out when it inevitably goes tits up?

Well jealousy aside assuming prices actually corrected to a reasonable level I will borrow to buy a home a) because it makes financial sense to do so in lots of situations and b) because I'll live in it for at least 15-20 years and raise my kids there, and if I can get a better house in a better area I'll borrow to have that improvement in my family's life.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Buskas posted:

You're an idiot, everywhere in Canada gets this at least every few winters. Some places regularly. The east coast gets epic snowstorms that trap people in houses for days.

lol interior BC is the real winter Canada

Go explore your country you twat.

Hush now child, in the year of our lord 2014 we have the Internet, with which I can peruse data without having to expose myself to the insufferable misery that runs wild throughout the majority of this decrepit nation.

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I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Are mortgages like margin loans, like if the value of your house crashed and you went above your original LVR, could the bank make a margin call on your house?

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