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porn consumption in Canada is about to plummet as well because now we can all jerk it to this.
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 21:59 |
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# ? May 27, 2024 21:39 |
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I won't lie I mainly want house prices to plummet so I can be smug with my in-laws for a while that I didn't buy a house when they thought I should
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:03 |
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On the CBC today they had an article on Greece and Japan's most recent financial woes and it mentioned that many experts are worried that those countries who are experiencing crashes may give up on capitalism and turn to [Communist?] alternatives
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:07 |
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Seat Safety Switch posted:About 12 per cent of Canadian households are considered to be extremely indebted — which means they have a debt-to-income ratio of at least 250 per cent. Anything under 250% is a-ok per Central Bank know-it-all, good to know. "Just go ahead and put the goal posts wherever you like, it will make absolutely no difference when the pyramid implodes..." What are the odds that when credit dries up for those indebted 250% it will also dry up for those indebted let's say 100%? I do wonder...
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:17 |
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Professor Shark posted:On the CBC today they had an article on Greece and Japan's most recent financial woes and it mentioned that many experts are worried that those countries who are experiencing crashes may give up on capitalism and turn to [Communist?] alternatives Unfortunately this is the most likely "alternative" we will see in Greece:
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:24 |
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Canadian fascism is the only correct fascism. Drive the undesirables from New Brunswick and settle it with Strong, Stable, Conservative Albertans
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:36 |
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Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism.
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:43 |
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Baronjutter posted:Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism. Japan's always had a revanchist bent over WWII and the equivalent of holocaust deniers in the upper echelons of government and other institutions. From what I heard, most people in Japan don't bother to vote, so the ultranationist wingnuts and rice farmers wield outsized political power (not at all dissimilar to why the Tea Party is electable at all down here). Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Dec 10, 2014 |
# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:44 |
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Baronjutter posted:Also hasn't right wing nationalism been on the rise in Japan too? It seems to be on the rise just about everywhere in response to the failure of neo-liberal capitalism. Well duh, the ramming through of "democratic capitalism" via gun-barrel throughout the 20th century didn't magically erase thousands of years of human nature, as much as cornucopian revisionists would have you believe otherwise.
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 22:49 |
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Japan is a super weird place, politically. They also have a pretty interesting housing market too.
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# ? Dec 10, 2014 23:03 |
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Here's a couple hundred golden examples of Canadian fiscal idiocy.Baronjutter posted:Japan is a super weird place, politically. They also have a pretty interesting housing market too. Yeah, it'd be fascinating to see where they went with things if they decided to ditch democracy. The country has always come up with systems that beggar ones imagination.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:08 |
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Baudin posted:Lower price of oil is, if it remains this way for more than a year, very bad for just about every facet of Alberta's economy. This includes, but is not limited to, public services (because the Tories are short sighted traditionally and will cut services to the bone), retail (because no one will buy expensive crap if they're under/unemployed), housing (because no one can afford a mortgage with certainty), and obviously oil services (because they're the ones under/unemployed). Welp, wish we had saved all that fat cash we got during the boom. Again. Yeah not mention things like the province budget assumed a certain price for oil which is no longer true: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Surplus+could+shrink+further+face+lower+prices+Alberta+finance+minister+warns/10436755/story.html quote:“There’s a chance the surplus could be a lot smaller than we’ve said, for sure, but we will run in the black,” he told reporters. The whole belt tightening will also have a tickle down effect through things such as layoffs or reducing capital equipment spending.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:09 |
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The budget is always wrong because they always assume the price of oil will be a certain price and then the market happens. I honestly don't blame them, it's not like we have a crystal ball and can predict oil prices completely accurately. What gets my goat is the idea that it's brilliant economic stewardship when they forecast a rise in revenue (due to increasing oil prices) and blame oil prices instead of their management when they fall.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:13 |
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Baudin posted:The budget is always wrong because they always assume the price of oil will be a certain price and then the market happens. I honestly don't blame them, it's not like we have a crystal ball and can predict oil prices completely accurately. Not to mention having a few year feast period in which brent crude was around a 100 dollars a barrel.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:18 |
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etalian posted:Not to mention having a few year feast period in which brent crude was around a 100 dollars a barrel. Which a lot of people assumed would stay there permanently. New normal, and all that. Sometimes I swear to god I'm the only one that remembers the 80's (which I don't, really, but it seems to have stayed with me longer than most).
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:20 |
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Baudin posted:Which a lot of people assumed would stay there permanently. New normal, and all that. Sometimes I swear to god I'm the only one that remembers the 80's (which I don't, really, but it seems to have stayed with me longer than most). Alberta has a diverse economy too:
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:22 |
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That's not diverse. A lot of the secondary markets are based off servicing oil companies/workers which means they're vulnerable to oil shocks too. Look at Edmonton's downtown office market in the late 80's - it was crippled due to oversupply (which should scare a lot of companies investing in older towers downtown right now I suspect) and stayed that way for over a decade. e: there were other reasons for that disaster - Jan Reimer, the mayor for the early 90's was very unfriendly to business, and drove companies to Calgary. They stayed there.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:25 |
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Baudin posted:That's not diverse. I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. One quarter energy, one quarter FIRE (including construction)... ouch.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:42 |
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It's a good thing Alberta has this wealth fund to fall back on in hard times like every other petrostate
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:44 |
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eXXon posted:I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. One quarter energy, one quarter FIRE (including construction)... ouch. If you take a look at Canada's economy by NAICS segment, it's actually not very far off of from this. Let he without sin cast the first stone, and so on. Real estate and rental (not including financing, insurance, or construction!) is actually the biggest single economic category in Canada already. The conclusion is that Canada's economy is built on a house of cards. That are also houses. Bad news.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 01:51 |
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So do we all think this is the beginning of the end then?
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 03:05 |
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Not according to housing starts.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 03:08 |
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I'm glad I get paid in USD. Thanks Alberta. Thalberta.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 03:10 |
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Rime posted:Yeah, it'd be fascinating to see where [Japan] went with things if they decided to ditch democracy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 Hope this helps. NMS.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 04:21 |
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Lead out in cuffs posted:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 Meh. The US gave them all full immunity and then shipped a couple high rankers over to do human experimentation with biological warfare agents in Maryland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Detrick#Testing_performed_on_Seventh-day_Adventists.2C_1940-1974 Pointing at some brutality from 80 years ago is relatively useless, given the radical psychological upheavals in Japanese society post-WWII.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 04:39 |
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http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report...?service=mobilequote:Stephen Poloz might have himself a housing bubble after all. How well he deals with it may well define his tenure as Canada’s central bank governor. it's ok guys, the market's 30% overvalued but there will be a soft landing anyway
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 05:02 |
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https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/542706397683941376/photo/1
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 05:26 |
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The 5 Stages of Housing Bubbles: (welcome to stage 3) 1) Denial - "There is no housing bubble, prices can only keep going up, Up, UP! 2) Anger - "Bullshit, there's no housing bubble. You're a fool to not buy, why aren't you buying!?! 3) Bargaining - "OK so there's a housing bubble but it won't be bad I'm sure the government and banks will fix this and we'll have a soft landing." 4) Depression - "Our mortgage is due and we apparently owe 30 thousand dollars more than our house is worth. The bank wants it by the end of the month or we lose the house." 5) Acceptance - "LOL Welp" EvilJoven fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Dec 11, 2014 |
# ? Dec 11, 2014 05:30 |
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Just so long as you remember a 30% bubble in housing means that the average Canadian middle class family is looking at a 30% deflation in their leverage then it's a great market call. If we use TD Econ's retail rates, the home and the second loan on a Canadian home is what makes most of a family's working capital and average annual discretionary cash flow is about 10% of assets in Canada then we are looking at about a deficit of 20% aggregate spending in Canada by 2016. That's also very good, because the largest whiners about housing prices in Canada are those in service sectors, or net-recipients of provincial transfer payments. So: if Steve's call was for a balance sheet recession driven by the collapse in crude prices, from Alberta to suddenly make things affordable for the average poor goon, that also assumes the poor little goon can 1.) get a loan given FICO ratings and lending standards shoot up exponentially when rates rise back to 4%/a, and 2.) that goon raging for 2 years, will keep their job at the current wage. Oh, and on top of that, inflation next year in Canada is expected to still go up at about 3%/y, due to the inflation being pumped in via food and imports. In short, and there is a pun in there, the market crunch today was pretty much everyone smart moving out of leveraged assets to US dollar or another hard currency. BoC basically said they will refuse to do any sort of QE to bailout distressed accounts, and it is likely 1 in 7 Canadians will see a material change in their consumer purchasing habits. IE: if you are expecting to be employed and making more than 88,000.00 CAD in 2017, you will be in the top 20% of Canada. I've been tracking this thread since inception, and on average the last time Canada suffered a balance sheet recession was 1987, and extended by Pierre Trudeau well into 1996. In the first 2 years after the initial crunch led by Alberta, non-core unemployment in the 18-35 cohort hit 18%. That was not including all the neckbeards who just straight up left Canada, which is in the CANSIM data sets. If someone really wants to get into a grudge match. Just something to chew on, as this thread progresses through 2H15. It's all fun and games until you, the guy dreaming of a credit crunch actually lives through one. I'd love to get a poll from everyone, esp those who have followed this thread since its inception back in 2013 (2012) as to who is actually juiced up about this recession and is actually planning to take out a 250,000 CAD mortgage at the 2.00 ar rates right now, or intends to in the next 10 months. Then compare that to those or other posters in 2016. If SA lasts that long The other part Poloz did not talk about in the soundbite or press release, but was asked in the Lockup by a reporter was the exodus of Vancouver property premiums, and by extension Chinese passport homebuyers. Note, the USA recently opened up passports for sale program, like Harper just shut down and the current BoC data implies Vancouver will definitely see a crash as most of the Oligarchs move their 10-condo bolthole investments to Las Vegas or DC. Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Dec 11, 2014 |
# ? Dec 11, 2014 05:32 |
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Hal_2005 posted:I'd love to get a poll from everyone, esp those who have followed this thread since its inception back in 2013 (2012) as to who is actually juiced up about this recession and is actually planning to take out a 250,000 CAD mortgage at the 2.00 ar rates right now, or intends to in the next 10 months. Then compare that to those or other posters in 2016. If SA lasts that long Come at me bro. ps. great post e: I don't intend on borrowing money from the bank right now or any time in the near future simply because I feel entitled buy a house at a price where I will be free and clear, or very close to. I don't drive a fancy car and I own it outright. I have no debts and I haven't carried a balance on an unsecured loan since maybe 2001. I graduated from university back when tuition was like $1250 per semester (or was that a year?). Most of my rage in this thread stems from a massive entitlement complex that my quality of life is being diluted by people willing to shoulder large amounts of debt. When I see someone driving down the street in a new 3 series, parking in my rented condo's lot, I think to myself, yeah that loving rear end in a top hat is part of the problem and the reason I'm renting a place to live is because I lack 'vision', enough to think that 300k/600k/800k worth of mortgage debt is ridiculous even if the payments are affordable. Because holy gently caress, doesn't anyone want to live mortgage free anymore? namaste friends fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Dec 11, 2014 |
# ? Dec 11, 2014 05:40 |
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EvilJoven posted:5) Acceptance - "Don't worry guys, the CMHC'll cover this, and putting interest rates back down will give us more cheap credit to learn nothing and ruin some other market!" fixed
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 06:02 |
Cultural Imperial posted:Come at me bro. Jealousy sure is ugly.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 06:22 |
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AVeryLargeRadish posted:Jealousy sure is ugly. This comment doesn't even make sense. How is it jealousy to disapprove of irresponsible borrowing and consumption, upon which it will fall to the rest of us to stump up and bail out when it inevitably goes tits up?
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 06:55 |
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http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/1236578/relaxed-rent-control-would-create-crisis-in-vancouver-ndp-mla/quote:Vancouver renters could be thrown in crisis if the provincial government reforms the current rent increase structure, warns NDP MLA David Eby. hahahahahaha oh dear god I hope coleman does this
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 07:13 |
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Rime posted:The average annual snowfall for Windsor is a piddly 50 inches over 44 days. I stand by my statement that when faced with 3-4 feet of snowfall in two days, most Canadians would have a panic attack and act like Floridians. You're an idiot, everywhere in Canada gets this at least every few winters. Some places regularly. The east coast gets epic snowstorms that trap people in houses for days. lol interior BC is the real winter Canada Go explore your country you twat.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 07:56 |
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Apart from Montreal, the rest of Canada needs to be cleansed with fire. If you're going to travel, save your money and go somewhere worthwhile. ie, leave Canada.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 08:00 |
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triplexpac posted:I won't lie I mainly want house prices to plummet so I can be smug with my in-laws for a while that I didn't buy a house when they thought I should This except with all my smug coworkers who just bought houses and informed me I was making a mistake not buying into Vancouver before it's too late. Enjoy your million dollar mortgage, dick.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 08:06 |
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Lexicon posted:This comment doesn't even make sense. How is it jealousy to disapprove of irresponsible borrowing and consumption, upon which it will fall to the rest of us to stump up and bail out when it inevitably goes tits up? Well jealousy aside assuming prices actually corrected to a reasonable level I will borrow to buy a home a) because it makes financial sense to do so in lots of situations and b) because I'll live in it for at least 15-20 years and raise my kids there, and if I can get a better house in a better area I'll borrow to have that improvement in my family's life.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 08:15 |
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Buskas posted:You're an idiot, everywhere in Canada gets this at least every few winters. Some places regularly. The east coast gets epic snowstorms that trap people in houses for days. Hush now child, in the year of our lord 2014 we have the Internet, with which I can peruse data without having to expose myself to the insufferable misery that runs wild throughout the majority of this decrepit nation.
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 08:35 |
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# ? May 27, 2024 21:39 |
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Are mortgages like margin loans, like if the value of your house crashed and you went above your original LVR, could the bank make a margin call on your house?
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# ? Dec 11, 2014 08:51 |