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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

silence_kit posted:

The point is that I don't see much evidence of the US government/corporate conspiracy against alternative sources of energy, which is often claimed in this thread.

Edit: I think the story is more like: until now, with wind & solar electricity, non-fossil fuel sources of energy haven't really been cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

The US gov't & corporations, being mostly agnostic about greenhouse gases, have just selected the most efficient option. There is no conspiracy necessary for this narrative.

So it's your belief that the oil industry did not spend 50+ years lobbying against climate change, so as to continue externalizing most of their costs? Really?

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

QuarkJets posted:

So it's your belief that the oil industry did not spend 50+ years lobbying against climate change, so as to continue externalizing most of their costs? Really?
His belief is that the lobbying didn't help matters at all re:climate change but that it wasn't the catalyst as much as fossil fuels being the mainstream energy source was making that a possibility in the first place. Call it pedantry if you must.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

His belief is that the lobbying didn't help matters at all re:climate change but that it wasn't the catalyst as much as fossil fuels being the mainstream energy source was making that a possibility in the first place. Call it pedantry if you must.

Given that they openly lobbied against things like Nuclear as "Expensive" and "Dangerous" to ensure their dominance on the market, I disagree. Even now, a lot of what they are doing is being used as a cover for continuing to do the same as usual via Greenwashing by claiming they are turning a corner.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jul 6, 2021

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

CommieGIR posted:

Given that they openly lobbied against things like Nuclear as "Expensive" and "Dangerous" to ensure their dominance on the market, I disagree. Even now, a lot of what they are doing is being used as a cover for continuing to do the same as usual via Greenwashing by claiming they are turning a corner.
And you're saying/implying that there has been no progress with corpo emissions from anyone in the past 3 years?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

And you're saying/implying that there has been no progress with corpo emissions from anyone in the past 3 years?

Let's put it this way: Germany was on track to miss their emissions goals for 2020. The ONLY thing that stopped that was Covid. That's it




https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/20/greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-set-to-rise-fast-in-2021

The problem is, every time we cut CO2, we replace it with methane emissions, which trends with our phasing out of coal with Natural Gas and Agricultural increases. So no. Emissions continue to rise. And we're pretending its okay.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Isn't the rise in emissions 2018-21 slowing down compared to 2014-18?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

Isn't the rise in emissions 2018-21 slowing down compared to 2014-18?

Because its being replaced by Methane emissions, which still leads to CO2 emissions but at a decreased rate. But again, while methane doesn't hang around in the atmosphere as long, its 4x more potent a GHG as CO2.

So no, not good. CO2 isn't climbing as fast, but its STILL climbing, and we're slaughtering Carbon sinks like the Rainforest and old growth forest for fuel, while rapidly expanding Fracking/Drilling to get more Natural Gas.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

CommieGIR posted:

Because its being replaced by Methane emissions, which still leads to CO2 emissions but at a decreased rate. But again, while methane doesn't hang around in the atmosphere as long, its 4x more potent a GHG as CO2.
So then - My 3-year long assumption that 'if carbon emissions slowed down over the next few years that would begin to become an improvement over business as usual emissions increases - indicating that the global economy was beginning to adapt to climate change' was a complete lie - is what you're saying? I was wrong to hope that pledges or any action would help? Tell me.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

So then - My 3-year long assumption that 'if carbon emissions slowed down over the next few years that would begin to become an improvement over business as usual emissions increases - indicating that the global economy was beginning to adapt to climate change' was a complete lie - is what you're saying? I was wrong to hope that pledges or any action would help? Tell me.

Unless we shift off Natural Gas and start curbing our Agricultural emissions, as well as slow down on burning wood pellets (Looking at you, Germany) which encourages increased forest decimation.....its a problem.

Anything that accelerates and encourage Fracking/Drilling is bad at this point. Natural Gas' time to shine should've been 30 years ago. Not now. We need Renewables + Nuclear right now, not gas.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

CommieGIR posted:

Unless we shift off Natural Gas and start curbing our Agricultural emissions, as well as slow down on burning wood pellets (Looking at you, Germany) which encourages increased forest decimation.....its a problem.
Okay...Okay. It is indeed a problem that can still be solved. But is it worse than the situation we were in before the 2018 report?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

Okay...Okay. It is indeed a problem that can still be solved. But is it worse than the situation we were in before the 2018 report?

Yes because we're ramping up post COVID.

Also: Here's a good sign of things to come:
https://twitter.com/ErrorFourOThree/status/1412181057194102793?s=20

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Why is Europe phasing out nuclear for gas again? General anti-nuclear sentiments combined with gas corp ambitions?

Wibla
Feb 16, 2011

Grouchio posted:

Why is Europe phasing out nuclear for gas again? General anti-nuclear sentiments combined with gas corp ambitions?

Collective broken brains from Fukushima.

Yes, really.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

Why is Europe phasing out nuclear for gas again? General anti-nuclear sentiments combined with gas corp ambitions?

Because Germany. Seriously. Most of this is being driven by Germany, who themselves are doubling down on Nordstream 2 Natural Gas. Its probably the stupidest move you could possibly make.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

CommieGIR posted:

Because Germany. Seriously. Most of this is being driven by Germany, who themselves are doubling down on Nordstream 2 Natural Gas. Its probably the stupidest move you could possibly make.
God gently caress Baerbock for costing her party the elections probably.

You know what? Biden should sanction Germany over this.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

God gently caress Baerbock for costing her party the elections probably.

You know what? Biden should sanction Germany over this.

Why would he, we're doing roughly the exact same thing.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

Yes because we're ramping up post COVID.

Also: Here's a good sign of things to come:
https://twitter.com/ErrorFourOThree/status/1412181057194102793?s=20

it rules that this is the flagship policy the greens want to realize this government term.

Wibla posted:

Collective broken brains from Fukushima.

Yes, really.

I don't think so. The green parties have been so neutered that nuclear is the only theme they are allowed to have an impact on. And it provides lots of jobs for the oil and gas industries, so by all means shut them down.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

double nine posted:

it rules that this is the flagship policy the greens want to realize this government term.

Germany put out a demand Friday(?) basically calling on the EU to keep Nuclear out of the green energy definition.

They also previously demanded Natural Gas be considered Green Energy. Its the most rear end-backwards move possible in the face of what is happening.

double nine posted:

I don't think so. The green parties have been so neutered that nuclear is the only theme they are allowed to have an impact on. And it provides lots of jobs for the oil and gas industries, so by all means shut them down.

Don't forget Greenpeace literally sells Natural Gas in Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenpeace_Energy

Their "Promise" was that it would be green sourced. As of right now it remains 96% fossil.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

Germany put out a demand Friday(?) basically calling on the EU to keep Nuclear out of the green energy definition.

They also previously demanded Natural Gas be considered Green Energy. Its the most rear end-backwards move possible in the face of what is happening.

Don't forget Greenpeace literally sells Natural Gas in Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenpeace_Energy

Their "Promise" was that it would be green sourced. As of right now it remains 96% fossil.

I'm convinced that our elites still think it's 1990 and yet they're still fighting the oil crisis.

Funnily enough it's the liberals who are starting to push against the nuclear exit. I don't know if this is just kabuki or serious, but any party that seriously decides not to shutter the nuclear power plants gets my blessing.

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/federaal/mr-trekt-kernuitstap-opnieuw-in-twijfel/10316533

(the darkest timeline is going to be that the political elites don't manage to find a solution, and the corp handling the maintenance of the nuclear plants just decides to shut them down unilaterally)

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

All that being said, this EU Gas/emission revival poo poo is more a temporary setback than an absolute reversal of climate fortunes, right?

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Grouchio posted:

All that being said, this EU Gas/emission revival poo poo is more a temporary setback than an absolute reversal of climate fortunes, right?

I mean I don't know what would constitute an absolute reversal, but it's clear that Europeans are battling over which energy sectors are acceptably "green". The Scandinavians and the Germans (and the UK) want to convert their coal plants to wood burning, the eastern bloc wants to import Russian fossil gas, the French want to promote their nuclear energy, the North Sea nations want more investment in offshore wind, and the Mediterranean nations want solar arrays. It's mostly a battle over domestic economies. The last time I did a deep-dive on Germany's energy sector, I basically came away with a recognition that despite their various green investments, they are basically swimming in place. It's good that some coal plants have been shuttered, but the pace is just abysmally slow and those plants have a zombie-like tendency to get restarted. If they were actually closing down coal plants, a lot more could be excused. Germany's insistence on killing off the nuclear energy industry while keeping most of the coal plants operating has effectively ensured that they won't be making any actual progress on emissions targets for many years. They're deathly afraid that the EU might recognize that converting coal plants to wood isn't actually helping the environment very much.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/16/converting-coal-plants-to-biomass-could-fuel-climate-crisis-scientists-warn

https://globalforestcoalition.org/plans-for-burning-namibian-wood-in-german-power-plants-denounced/

Kaal fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Jul 7, 2021

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
And all while doing this, Russia is actually building more nuclear plants, Poland is investigating building US designed ones as well.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
Also not to put too fine a point on it, but the reason that German coal plants are converting to wood burning is precisely because they're getting squeezed by carbon taxes and the current regulations consider wood to be "biomass" akin to switchgrass. The current carbon pricing, as limited as it is, is already causing a huge shift in the energy sector. The solution is very clear - implement more carbon taxes and continue targeting them against the lowest-hanging fruit.

ANIME AKBAR
Jan 25, 2007

afu~

CommieGIR posted:

Germany put out a demand Friday(?) basically calling on the EU to keep Nuclear out of the green energy definition.

They also previously demanded Natural Gas be considered Green Energy. Its the most rear end-backwards move possible in the face of what is happening.

Got any links to back these up? Quick google search didn't turn up anything.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

ANIME AKBAR posted:

Got any links to back these up? Quick google search didn't turn up anything.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-four-others-oppose-classing-nuclear-green-eu-2021-07-02/

Aethernet
Jan 28, 2009

This is the Captain...

Our glorious political masters have, in their wisdom, decided to form an alliance with a rag-tag bunch of freedom fighters right when the Federation has us at a tactical disadvantage. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the Feds firing on our vessels...

Damn you Huxley!

Grimey Drawer

Worth noting that this has only led to the Commission delaying a decision on nukes rather than excluding them from the taxonomy. The Commission commissioned some expert opinion on the issue last year:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en

Which basically says, "Nah fam, you good, build the nukes but keep researching tho."

However, I expect the Commission to kick the can down the road for a few years, as the alternative is publicly pointing out that a very important Member State is being loving stupid.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

And all while doing this, Russia is actually building more nuclear plants, Poland is investigating building US designed ones as well.

not to get tinhat, but i wonder what % of russian troll farms post anti atom stuff.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

PhazonLink posted:

not to get tinhat, but i wonder what % of russian troll farms post anti atom stuff.

Given that it directly benefits Russia to ensure they are buying Russian gas?

Who knows. But given past corruption scandals in Germany with Gazprom, its not unexpected.

Pander
Oct 9, 2007

Fear is the glue that holds society together. It's what makes people suppress their worst impulses. Fear is power.

And at the end of fear, oblivion.



Phanatic posted:

Those risks to industry and population centers aren't just from outright dam failure.

The people pointing out Hoover Dam as an area-wide panacea, take a look at this pic I took:

Floating by Phanatic, on Flickr

That's back in 2009. The water levels have continued to drop, and are at their lowest since the dam was built. The cities and farming that were a direct result of building the dam in the first place are in jeopardy of losing their water. If it drops 80 more feet, the pipes that extract water for Las Vegas will go dry, so they're building a billion-dollar expansion to be able to tap water from lower down. But if the level declines to 900 feet, then Arizona, California, and New Mexico don't get *any* water from the dam. Lake Mead gets fed from Lake Powell, which is also low. Hoover Dam's capacity is already down by about 25% because of the lower water levels.

Dams are pretty lovely for the environment: http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/5617/

Was just looking through old posts and this caught my eye. We're staring down the barrel of low levels at Lake Mead again. I don't know how the SW survives climate change long term.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Pander posted:

Was just looking through old posts and this caught my eye. We're staring down the barrel of low levels at Lake Mead again. I don't know how the SW survives climate change long term.
Technological and ecological adaptation with shitloads of funding. Cloud seeding, membrane desalination, underground housing, hydroponics, improved grids come to mind.

Look at it this way the SW is squarely within an economic powerhouse most likely to be able to do such things. This is the perfect testing ground for such techniques that can one day terraform regions and save lives.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.
60 minutes did a piece of the Fukushima cleanup. Seems the cost is now estimated at $1/4T.

Looked that up:

The government says Fukushima's decommissioning cost is estimated at 8 trillion yen ($73 billion), though adding compensation, decontamination of surrounding areas and medium-term storage facilities would bring the total to an estimated 22 trillion yen ($200 billion).

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-tokyo-japan-science-business-d1b8322355f3f31109dd925900dff200

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

VideoGameVet posted:

60 minutes did a piece of the Fukushima cleanup. Seems the cost is now estimated at $1/4T.

Looked that up:

The government says Fukushima's decommissioning cost is estimated at 8 trillion yen ($73 billion), though adding compensation, decontamination of surrounding areas and medium-term storage facilities would bring the total to an estimated 22 trillion yen ($200 billion).

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-tokyo-japan-science-business-d1b8322355f3f31109dd925900dff200

The Fukushima cleanup can be as expensive as we want it to be.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

VideoGameVet posted:

60 minutes did a piece of the Fukushima cleanup. Seems the cost is now estimated at $1/4T.

Looked that up:

The government says Fukushima's decommissioning cost is estimated at 8 trillion yen ($73 billion), though adding compensation, decontamination of surrounding areas and medium-term storage facilities would bring the total to an estimated 22 trillion yen ($200 billion).

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-tokyo-japan-science-business-d1b8322355f3f31109dd925900dff200

Not bad. Now turn Fukushima II back on.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.
Maybe we want a reactor that doesn’t have an issue with the power being turned off.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

VideoGameVet posted:

Maybe we want a reactor that doesn’t have an issue with the power being turned off.

Daini did not have those issues. It weathered the same Tsunami just fine.

It's about 15 miles up the coast from Fukushima Diachi, it's generators and switchgear were above sea level.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daini_Nuclear_Power_Plant?wprov=sfla1

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Jul 13, 2021

Dameius
Apr 3, 2006
The true cost of improperly sited equipment. A tale as old as time.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

CommieGIR posted:

Daini did not have those issues. It weathered the same Tsunami just fine.


I'm not sure I'd say that, exactly. The diesels were fine, but the seawater pumps were not.

quote:

The tsunami caused the plant's seawater pumps, used to cool reactors, to fail. Of the plant's four reactors, three were in danger of meltdown.[19] One external high-voltage power line still functioned, allowing plant staff in the central control room to monitor data on internal reactor temperatures and water levels. 2,000 employees of the plant worked to stabilize the reactors. Some employees connected over 9 kilometers of cabling using 200-meter sections of cable, each weighing more than a ton from their Rad Waste Building to other locations onsite.

The steam powered reactor core isolation cooling system (RCIC) in all 4 units was activated and ran as needed to maintain water level. At the same time, operators utilized the safety relief valve systems to keep the reactor pressures from getting too high by dumping the heat to the suppression pools.[13] In unit 3, one seawater pump remained operational and the residual heat removal system (RHR) was started to cool the suppression pool and later brought the reactor to cold shutdown on March 12. In units 1, 2, and 4 heat removal was unavailable, so the suppression pools began heating up and on March 12, the water temperature in the pools of units 1, 2, and 4 reached 100 °C between 05:30 and 06:10 JST,[20][21][22] removing the ability to remove pressure from the reactor and drywell.[13]

Operators had to also prepare an alternate injection line for each unit, as the RCIC can run indefinitely only while there is sufficient pressure and steam in the reactor to drive its turbine. Once the reactor pressure drops below a certain level, the RCIC shuts down automatically. The normal electrically driven Emergency Core Cooling Systems (ECCS) were for the most part unavailable due to the loss of the ultimate heat sink and damage to some of the electrical infrastructure. Operators prepared for this and set up an alternate injection line using a non-emergency system known as the Makeup Water Condensate (MUWC) system to maintain water level which was an accident mitigation method TEPCO put in place at all its nuclear plants.[citation needed] The system was started and stopped in all 4 units, including unit 3, as needed to maintain the water level. The RCICs in each unit later shut down due to low reactor pressure.[when?][citation needed] The MUWC and the makeup water purification and filtering (MUPF) systems were also used to try to cool the suppression pool and drywell in addition to the reactor to prevent the drywell pressure from getting too high. Operators were later able to restore the High Pressure Core Spray portion of the ECCS in unit 4 and switched emergency water injection for unit 4 from the MUWC system to the HPCS.

While the water level was maintained in the three cores using emergency water injection, pressures in the containment vessel continued to rise due to lack of suppression pool cooling and the operators prepared to vent the containments making restoration of heat removal urgent.[clarification needed] Unit 1 was prioritized as it had the highest drywell pressure.[23]

Cold shutdown
The ultimate heat sink was restored on March 13 when the service seawater system pumps in the pump room were repaired in units 1, 2 and 4. This allowed to restore the normal ECCS and heat removal systems to operable status and cooling was switched to the Residual Heat Removal System (RHR) portion of the ECCS. The RHR systems were first activated to cool down the suppression pools (torus) and drywells to operable status, and water injections were made to the reactors using the Low Pressure Coolant Injection (LPCI) mode as needed. When the suppression pool was cooled down to below 100 °C, the RHR was switched to the shutdown cooling mode and brought the reactors to a cold shutdown.[20]

The operators were on top of their game and averted meltdowns by fixing the poo poo that broke before the emergency cooling apparatus was overwhelmed, but I wouldn't describe this as a reactor that didn't have an issue with the power being turned off.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Phanatic posted:

I'm not sure I'd say that, exactly. The diesels were fine, but the seawater pumps were not.

The operators were on top of their game and averted meltdowns by fixing the poo poo that broke before the emergency cooling apparatus was overwhelmed, but I wouldn't describe this as a reactor that didn't have an issue with the power being turned off.

And they didn't melt down. True, I stand corrected, they had issues, but nowhere near the issues Daichi had.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Grouchio posted:

Technological and ecological adaptation with shitloads of funding. Cloud seeding, membrane desalination, underground housing, hydroponics, improved grids come to mind.

Look at it this way the SW is squarely within an economic powerhouse most likely to be able to do such things. This is the perfect testing ground for such techniques that can one day terraform regions and save lives.

we're not even capable of avoiding buying new fossil drive Amtrak trains

nobody is going to accept terraforming, the rich are going to insist on buying eight ton residential air conditioners powered by high sulfur bunker oil and subsidized by the poor before they accept anything that looks remotely like sensible climate adaptation

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/gary_hasty/status/1415677400717963264?s=20

The gas consumption spike during the Texas blackouts was big money.

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