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Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Zulily Zoetrope posted:

So the plan is just to formally turn Israel into Apartheid South Africa, rather than having apartheid beneath the thinnest possible veneer of plausible deniability?

I mean, I’m not an expert on how Bantustans were legally defined, but it seems to be the exact same thing.

The bantustans were pretty much that "thinnest possible veneer of plausible deniability". Since the bantustans were nominally independent countries legally distinct from South Africa, it only made sense that the residents of the bantustans would lose their voting rights and any other rights they had as citizens of South Africa, because they were now foreign citizens. Except that it was incredibly obvious that South Africa was doing it just to impose official segregation while avoiding criticism for apartheid, and the bantustans barely qualified as nominally independent given that they were economically and politically dependent on South Africa.

While these halfassed Palestine proposals do accomplish similar things, such as imposing official segregation and granting an excuse to deprive Palestinians (and Israeli Arabs) of political rights while still keeping them under Israeli control, there's one more key goal that didn't exist in South Africa:
https://twitter.com/Ibishblog/status/1222248424751489024

This is basically the entire reason Israel has any interest in actually concluding a peace deal (as opposed to just going through the motions forever to appease international interests). Israel hopes to permanently put an end to the Palestinian claims against it as part of any agreement, removing the official international recognition and support for the Palestinian refugees.

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AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

Main Paineframe posted:

This is basically the entire reason Israel has any interest in actually concluding a peace deal (as opposed to just going through the motions forever to appease international interests). Israel hopes to permanently put an end to the Palestinian claims against it as part of any agreement, removing the official international recognition and support for the Palestinian refugees.

Can you really call it a deal when only one side is involved? They're aiming to put on paper what has been the facts on the ground for years, the Palestinians do not get a say in this.

Nebalebadingdong
Jun 30, 2005

i made a video game.
why not give it a try!?
Its possible Kushner is dumb enough to think it'll work but I assume it was made to be rejected

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Can you really call it a deal when only one side is involved? They're aiming to put on paper what has been the facts on the ground for years, the Palestinians do not get a say in this.
I'm pretty confident that this is being done on purpose to try and make the Palestinians look 'unreasonable' when they reject the deal, which will then allow the US/Israel/SA free reign to do whatever they feel like to bring the hammer down.

That this deal was unveiled almost simultaneously with the US giving the green light for Israel to annex the settlements says a lot about what the real plan is here

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Can you really call it a deal when only one side is involved? They're aiming to put on paper what has been the facts on the ground for years, the Palestinians do not get a say in this.

They also want international recognition and acceptance of the facts on the ground and an end to international support of Palestinian refugees and claims which is a big difference from the status quo.

The deal is less with the Palestinians and more with the rest of the international community and the implication that the US will rough up anyone who objects too loudly.

[edit] What is the disconnected harbor symbol on the map all about? Is that the Palestinians single authorized treaty port or something?

Munin fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 29, 2020

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

I'm pretty confident that this is being done on purpose to try and make the Palestinians look 'unreasonable' when they reject the deal, which will then allow the US/Israel/SA free reign to do whatever they feel like to bring the hammer down.

That this deal was unveiled almost simultaneously with the US giving the green light for Israel to annex the settlements says a lot about what the real plan is here

To whom would they look unreasonable? Even if you took past administrations` actions entirely cynically, they made sure to involve the Palestinians and other Arab leaders closer to them very closely, which lent some credence to arguments that they were being obstinate; in this case, the Palestinians were openly not consulted, nothing was discussed with them, they are barely mentioned in this "deal" (which looks more like a propaganda reel than anything resembling a treaty). Having the two "sides" of Israeli politics is the main achievement presented there.

generic one
Oct 2, 2004

I wish I was a little bit taller
I wish I was a baller
I wish I had a wookie in a hat with a bat
And a six four Impala


Nap Ghost

Nebalebadingdong posted:

Its possible Kushner is dumb enough to think it'll work but I assume it was made to be rejected

Kushner’s real estate experience was cited as a reason he was put on the team. So... maybe they’re just stupid?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Absurd Alhazred posted:

To whom would they look unreasonable? Even if you took past administrations` actions entirely cynically, they made sure to involve the Palestinians and other Arab leaders closer to them very closely, which lent some credence to arguments that they were being obstinate; in this case, the Palestinians were openly not consulted, nothing was discussed with them, they are barely mentioned in this "deal" (which looks more like a propaganda reel than anything resembling a treaty). Having the two "sides" of Israeli politics is the main achievement presented there.
This time the US is more directly involved, and they along with Israel/SA are basically saying that you need to take this or there will be consequences. I mean look at the quotes from that Kushner speech....

The rest of the world knows this is a pile of poo poo, but they can't do much more than they already are with respect to Israel.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

This time the US is more directly involved, and they along with Israel/SA are basically saying that you need to take this or there will be consequences. I mean look at the quotes from that Kushner speech....

The rest of the world knows this is a pile of poo poo, but they can't do much more than they already are with respect to Israel.

Well, then it isn't being done to make the Palestinians look "unreasonable". Which is what I said.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Absurd Alhazred posted:

Well, then it isn't being done to make the Palestinians look "unreasonable". Which is what I said.
This plan was done by idiots so it's not very easy to explain. I suppose it could also be a boost to Bibi and Likud which had been discussed prior to the unveiling of this plan. Although it ended up falling on the same day that Bibi was officially indicted, so not good timing there...

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

This plan was done by idiots so it's not very easy to explain. I suppose it could also be a boost to Bibi and Likud which had been discussed prior to the unveiling of this plan. Although it ended up falling on the same day that Bibi was officially indicted, so not good timing there...

They looked at past peace plans through a mirror, drunkly.

Edit: here's a.... string of words from Canada:

https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1222352843191046146

Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Jan 29, 2020

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Absurd Alhazred posted:

They looked at past peace plans through a mirror, drunkly.

Edit: here's a.... string of words from Canada:

https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1222352843191046146
This is :effort: the statement

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

FlamingLiberal posted:

Oh and look at this abomination:

https://twitter.com/mairavz/status/1222223257811574784?s=21

Note that there is a tunnel to go from Gaza to the West Bank so that the Israelis don’t have to see the Morlocks....I mean Palestinians

You say tunnel, but it could be a bridge!

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Orange Devil posted:

You say tunnel, but it could be a bridge!

let me ask the ethnostate attached to metaphor

By popular demand
Jul 17, 2007

IT *BZZT* WASP ME--
IT WASP ME ALL *BZZT* ALONG!


FlamingLiberal posted:

This is :effort: the statement

God drat.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

EU put out a similarly worded mealy-mouthed statement. Some poo poo about carefully studying this and hoping it can be the first step in a restoration of the peace process or whatever. Basically poo poo that sounds good only to people who haven't the faintest clue of what is actually going on.

Lassitude
Oct 21, 2003

FlamingLiberal posted:

This is :effort: the statement

We're Canada. If we say anything wrong the US will roll over and crush our economy out of spite. At least we're not (currently) all-in on Palestinian genocide like we will be once we elect a Conservative in 4 years. Don't expect anything like moral courage from us though.

By popular demand
Jul 17, 2007

IT *BZZT* WASP ME--
IT WASP ME ALL *BZZT* ALONG!


Why say anything though? It's not as if the middle East is not used to Canada vaguely supporting the U.S. intentions.

Could have just said that you are not involved in this plan and cannot comment.

Lassitude
Oct 21, 2003

Actually given our track record, yeah, you're probably right.

Lassitude fucked around with this message at 12:17 on Jan 29, 2020

Zanzibar Ham
Mar 17, 2009

You giving me the cold shoulder? How cruel.


Grimey Drawer
Shouldn't even call it a "peace plan".

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
Shouldn't even call it a plan. It's a wish-list with some dumb maps.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Absurd Alhazred posted:

Shouldn't even call it a plan. It's a wish-list with some dumb maps.
And it’s the Likud dream list

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

And it’s the Likud dream list

All those Palestinian enclaves near the Egyptian border aren't on the dream list. Apparently people there are already upset, as they haven't been consulted, either (Hebrew).

They also walked back the (caretaker!) government voting for annexation on Sunday (Hebrew)

This is going to continue the settler movement freakout over leaks about the "plan" not going far enough in their favor. There are two things here they really don't like: enclaves inside Palestinian-controlled territory, and the very fact of any Palestinian sovereignty.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

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I’m glad at least the pro-Zionist NYT is calling this plan out as garbage. The homepage has an article up saying that this is just to benefit both Bibi and Trump in an election year, rather than an actual plan

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"
Man, it's good to be a sovereign state:

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
It's literally what you get if you give someone with zero local knowledge a map and a sharpy and tell them to fix the conflict

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

I’m glad at least the pro-Zionist NYT is calling this plan out as garbage. The homepage has an article up saying that this is just to benefit both Bibi and Trump in an election year, rather than an actual plan

Maybe sometime in the next decade this will force people to contend with the notion that "Zionist" and "Likud" and "Settler Movement" aren't interchangeable. Not keeping my hopes up, though.

Edit: Here's a tweet in English about annexation walk-back:

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1222525315475476480

Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Jan 29, 2020

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Absurd Alhazred posted:

They looked at past peace plans through a mirror, drunkly.

Edit: here's a.... string of words from Canada:

https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1222352843191046146

Translation: "this is a crock of poo poo but we are too spineless to oppose it, so we'll just issue some noncommittal platitudes"

Orange Devil posted:

EU put out a similarly worded mealy-mouthed statement. Some poo poo about carefully studying this and hoping it can be the first step in a restoration of the peace process or whatever. Basically poo poo that sounds good only to people who haven't the faintest clue of what is actually going on.

The same translation also applies. Canada and the EU are the USA's bitches and utterly unable to actually oppose it diplomatically in any meaningful way.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

This sounds pretty similar to what Clinton offered in 2000, right?

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

kidkissinger posted:

This sounds pretty similar to what Clinton offered in 2000, right?

It's much worse. The Clinton 2000 framework would have given Palestine 95% of the West Bank minus the settlement blocs on the border, along with land swaps to compensate. Palestine would have recieved the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem and "symbolic" sovereignty over Temple Mount. Israel would have paid compensation to Palestinian refugees although they would not be able to resettle in Israel. The Palestinians rejected it because it did not specify that the West Bank would be undivided (Israel was insisting on holding settlement blocs that would divide the territory) and because giving up even symbolic return of refugees to Israel was a complete non-starter.

Whereas the current mooted plan gives Palestine 70% of the West Bank, sliced up into dozens of non-contiguous parts and with Israeli settlements embedded within. Abu Dis, a small village outside of Jerusalem, would be named "Jerusalem" so Palestinians could feel better about themselves. Not only would no refugees be allowed into Israel, Israel would pay no compensation and in fact the UNRWA (the UN agency that supports Palestinian refugees) would shut down. What little autonomy is promised to Palestinians is gated on agreeing to be a disarmed and compliant puppet state; effectively an enforcement agency to prevent terrorist attacks against Israel with no other power. Surprisingly, Palestinian leaders passed on this as well.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

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There are way more settlements now than in 2000 so it’s a big difference

The Clinton deal was also not nearly as blatantly offensive

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
I was pretty young then but I also don't recall Clinton telling the Palestinians to go gently caress their mothers at the same time

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Failed Imagineer posted:

I was pretty young then but I also don't recall Clinton telling the Palestinians to go gently caress their mothers at the same time

Clinton didn't say the silent part out loud, correct.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Orange Devil posted:

Clinton didn't say the silent part out loud, correct.

Wise of the Palestinians to have rejected it, then.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
I'll say the same thing as I've said since like 2005, it's going to end up in an one-state solution. Israel just took shortcut to it I guess.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

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DarkCrawler posted:

I'll say the same thing as I've said since like 2005, it's going to end up in an one-state solution. Israel just took shortcut to it I guess.
Yes, except it's probably not going to end in a good way like South Africa did

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Bojo fellated Trump's plan of course. The tone of the coverage of the plan on the BBC seemed to markedly shift after that happened as well...

team overhead smash
Sep 2, 2006

Team-Forest-Tree-Dog:
Smashing your way into our hearts one skylight at a time

Lum_ posted:

It's much worse. The Clinton 2000 framework would have given Palestine 95% of the West Bank minus the settlement blocs on the border, along with land swaps to compensate. Palestine would have recieved the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem and "symbolic" sovereignty over Temple Mount. Israel would have paid compensation to Palestinian refugees although they would not be able to resettle in Israel. The Palestinians rejected it because it did not specify that the West Bank would be undivided (Israel was insisting on holding settlement blocs that would divide the territory) and because giving up even symbolic return of refugees to Israel was a complete non-starter.

I believe the right of return ended up being something the Palestinians were willing to compromise on a lot on the basis that the majority of refugees would settle within Palestine.

Xander77
Apr 6, 2009

Fuck it then. For another pit sandwich and some 'tater salad, I'll post a few more.



I dunno. Call me an optimist, but I feel like this plan is unpalatable to the Palestinians (who cares) the Israeli left (lol) and (most importantly) everyone to Bibi's right and / or to anyone trying to attack him from the right, sensing his weakness. Any kind of Palestinian state, even a bantustan pseudo-state, is entirely unpalatable to the extreme right.

I allow myself to hope that Trump's blatant ploy to distract from his impeachment (and Bib's corruption charges) has delivered the next election to "just like Bibi but with moderately less blatant corruption", which is apparently our great white hope right now.

Edit - and obviously the plan is empty bluster, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. No actual changes to anything other than the state of US / Israeli politics will follow, nor were any any changes ever meant to happen in (quote, unquote) reality.

Xander77 fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Jan 30, 2020

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Cefte
Sep 18, 2004

tranquil consciousness

Xander77 posted:

I dunno. Call me an optimist, but I feel like this plan is unpalatable to the Palestinians (who cares) the Israeli left (lol) and (most importantly) everyone to Bibi's right and / or to anyone trying to attack him from the right, sensing his weakness. Any kind of Palestinian state, even a bantustan pseudo-state, is entirely unpalatable to the extreme right.

I allow myself to hope that Trump's blatant ploy to distract from his impeachment (and Bib's corruption charges) has delivered the next election to "just like Bibi but with moderately less blatant corruption", which is apparently our great white hope right now.

Edit - and obviously the plan is empty bluster, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. No actual changes to anything other than the state of US / Israeli politics will follow, nor were any any changes ever meant to happen in (quote, unquote) reality.
Call me a pessimist, but the point of this 'plan', and the point of by and large every US-Israeli interaction for the past thirty years, is to define the 'acceptable limit' of the annexation ratchet. The US has now signalled that legal annexation of the Jordan valley is acceptable, and it will happen rapidly, and it will not be undone, especially not by a centre-left Israeli government. Everything else is decorative fluff for the media.

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