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radmonger
Jun 6, 2011
The basic claim is that oil/gas companies should not invest in green energy, because they are going to be replaced by new companies doing green things. Instead they should just extract gas and return money to shareholders, while making just enough environmental concessions to avoid being literally arrested.

The claim is that no corporation ever survived a phase change in the nature of what the market is based on. That seems wrong. True, you can find examples of companies that bet wrong, like Blockbuster, easily enough . But what about, say, tobacco companies and e-cigarettes/vaping?

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evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

radmonger posted:

They should just extract gas and return money to shareholders, while making just enough environmental concessions to avoid being literally arrested.
The guy is an self-avowed antisocialist equities analyst, did you expect him to optimize for societal good or something? :guillotine:

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

radmonger posted:

The basic claim is that oil/gas companies should not invest in green energy, because they are going to be replaced by new companies doing green things. Instead they should just extract gas and return money to shareholders, while making just enough environmental concessions to avoid being literally arrested.

The claim is that no corporation ever survived a phase change in the nature of what the market is based on. That seems wrong. True, you can find examples of companies that bet wrong, like Blockbuster, easily enough . But what about, say, tobacco companies and e-cigarettes/vaping?

Another example might be tank and warplane manufacturers like Mitsubishi and Porsche who seem to be fine making luxury cars these days. :v:

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


radmonger posted:

The basic claim is that oil/gas companies should not invest in green energy, because they are going to be replaced by new companies doing green things. Instead they should just extract gas and return money to shareholders, while making just enough environmental concessions to avoid being literally arrested.

The claim is that no corporation ever survived a phase change in the nature of what the market is based on. That seems wrong. True, you can find examples of companies that bet wrong, like Blockbuster, easily enough . But what about, say, tobacco companies and e-cigarettes/vaping?

Did you even read the article because did vouch for regulations especially over methane emissions. Tobacco use is dramatically over over the last few decades but that is completely different situation - you can live without tobacco. Oil and Gas makes up hundreds of necessary products and services that are never, ever going to go away unless they are replaced by alternatives.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Want to understand the future of Oil and Gas? Look no further than this insanely detailed article, it's one of the best explanations I've come across yet -

https://twitter.com/ArjunNMurti/status/1463315801679740928?s=20

https://twitter.com/ArjunNMurti/status/1463315814132719618?s=20

Yeah one of the best explanations for why the Oil and Gas industry spends money on boutique Green energy solutions from a person who has never heard of and will not acknowledge greenwashing.

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Did you even read the article because did vouch for regulations especially over methane emissions. Tobacco use is dramatically over over the last few decades but that is completely different situation - you can live without tobacco. Oil and Gas makes up hundreds of necessary products and services that are never, ever going to go away unless they are replaced by alternatives.

Yes, hence the phrase ‘just enough environment concessions to avoid being arrested’. Now, It is certainly true that many necessary things are and will continue to be made from oil (though not so much gas).

But what he is arguing is for is not buying shares in oil companies that attempt anything beyond that legal minimum. Because while even though they can see the change to green energy coming, he claims history suggests they will try and fail to adapt. Which wastes money he would rather have for himself.

However, even accepting that entirely amoral viewpoint, he is too busy gloating over how clever/evil he is to actually make his case. Netflix won over Blockbuster because the latter had a large number of soon-to-be useless retail locations, workers and pension liabilities. Starting from scratch was a clear winning proposition.

Tesla is a more ambiguous case, where there are clear downsides as well as advantages to starting from scratch. Other car companies catching up on EVs is a thing many people can see happening, simply because they have decades of experience in making car doors, seats, steering wheels, and so on. In any case, not properly investing in EV development was a clear unforced mistake by car manufacturers, not something to be argued for.

If the future of energy is largely nuclear or offshore wind, then companies with workforces that know how to build turbines and offshore oil platforms are going to have a shorter learning curve. Only if it is all manufacturing solar cells in a Chinese factory and jobbing tradesmen installing them on roofs do the existing energy companies have nothing useful to offer.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


I'm a bit unclear how his position is "evil" he is simply stating to let Oil and Gas companies be Oil and Gas Companies. Investors should invest as needed. Any resource extraction is always going to messy, dirty, etc. and hence needs to be appropriately regulated along with promoting the use of cleaner fuels and other alternatives such as hydrogen.

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Nov 26, 2021

Micr0chiP
Mar 17, 2007
Speaking of Chernobyl, just saw this video of two divers reacting to some crazy russians(?) diving on the water in the Chernobyl reactor...

With a fish bowl as a helmet and black saran wrap as the diving suit. :dogstare:

https://youtu.be/dy_3m-9nOGw

In better news, Portugal anounced the shutdown of the last coal power plant in the country, as far as i can quickly google the base load seems to be provided by gas.

VictualSquid
Feb 29, 2012

Gently enveloping the target with indiscriminate love.

Micr0chiP posted:

Speaking of Chernobyl, just saw this video of two divers reacting to some crazy russians(?) diving on the water in the Chernobyl reactor...

With a fish bowl as a helmet and black saran wrap as the diving suit. :dogstare:

https://youtu.be/dy_3m-9nOGw

In better news, Portugal anounced the shutdown of the last coal power plant in the country, as far as i can quickly google the base load seems to be provided by gas.
I watched the original video when it was new, that is far from the dumbest thing they did in the zone.
The best part of the series is when they become friends with that old lady who moved back into her old farm in the zone sometime during the 2000s to avoid the housing market. She keeps offering them locally grown food and laughs when the pull out their geiger counters.

evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

radmonger posted:

Tesla is a more ambiguous case, where there are clear downsides as well as advantages to starting from scratch
Tesla's ambiguous because they have a deluded rear end in a top hat at the helm. If you want good examples of starting from scratch look at lucid or rivian.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

radmonger posted:

The basic claim is that oil/gas companies should not invest in green energy, because they are going to be replaced by new companies doing green things. Instead they should just extract gas and return money to shareholders, while making just enough environmental concessions to avoid being literally arrested.

The claim is that no corporation ever survived a phase change in the nature of what the market is based on. That seems wrong. True, you can find examples of companies that bet wrong, like Blockbuster, easily enough . But what about, say, tobacco companies and e-cigarettes/vaping?

I agree with you, I don't think it's intrinsic that older companies must die. Netflix comes to mind as a company that basically paved the way for streaming services but was one of the largest physical media businesses before that.

Here's a mind-blowing fact: Nintendo was founded as a playing card company in 1889 and didn't start branching into any kind of electronic toys until the late 1960s. So Nintendo was exclusively a playing card company for longer than it's been a video game company.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Amazon used to exclusively sell books. Physical books.

Anyone who says that a company can't do something new is a loving liar

Beffer
Sep 25, 2007
Nokia was a gumboot manufacturer and went into mobile phones as a diversification!

But then completely failed to adapt to the smartphone innovation which should have been a smaller and easier leap.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
They made electronics stuff before mobile phones too, since the 60s they made mobile radios, telephone switches, capacitors and chemicals, it's a diverse company. Still make boots too, my warmest pair of boots are a pair of nokian naali.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/cleanenergywire/status/1466060294522875905?s=20

Turns out allying with Natural Gas and Fossil industry to push out Nuclear likely results in a lot of your Clean Energy Funds eventually being redirected to Fossil fuel energy projects.

Beffer
Sep 25, 2007
CFS just got US$1.8billion to build their test fusion reactor SPARC and the commercial version ARC.

https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/commonwealth-fusion-systems-closes-1-8-billion-series-b-round

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Beffer posted:

CFS just got US$1.8billion to build their test fusion reactor SPARC and the commercial version ARC.

https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/commonwealth-fusion-systems-closes-1-8-billion-series-b-round

Oh man this is going to be great in 15-20 years.

Beffer
Sep 25, 2007

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Oh man this is going to be great in 15-20 years.

I know its the forever fusion joke, but this approach is pretty far advanced. But you're right. It's still early 2030s for ARC to come online all being well.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
I'm excited!

aniviron
Sep 11, 2014

It's so hard not to be cynical, but I am asking genuinely: is there reason to believe that SPARC or any of the multitude of new fusion startups will actually achieve success and net energy gain in 10-15 years? If so, why? What are they doing differently from ITER and all the traditional fusion research, what suggests that they are on a path to success instead of infinite delays?

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

aniviron posted:

It's so hard not to be cynical, but I am asking genuinely: is there reason to believe that SPARC or any of the multitude of new fusion startups will actually achieve success and net energy gain in 10-15 years? If so, why? What are they doing differently from ITER and all the traditional fusion research, what suggests that they are on a path to success instead of infinite delays?

Exactly the same as before, but now with BLOCKCHAIN.

Beffer
Sep 25, 2007
The CFS approach is essentially the same as ITER but with much more powerful magnets enabled by new high temp super conductors. In theory this allows them to produce the same energy gain as iter in a machine one tenth the size and cost.

They built a full scale magnet segment recently and successfully tested it beating the design parameters. This was the big tech hurdle. And that is how they’ve just gotten $1.8bn from investors.

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Beffer posted:

Nokia was a gumboot manufacturer and went into mobile phones as a diversification!

But then completely failed to adapt to the smartphone innovation which should have been a smaller and easier leap.

They bought in a Microsoft hack to run the company and he actively killed the effort (MeeGo) that had already launched a SmartPhone that got rave reviews.

quote:

Elop decided to abandon Symbian and MeeGo, looked at Android and passed (it's rumoured that Google wouldn't give them special status), and choose Microsoft Phone 7 for Nokia's future direction. No doubt Microsoft gave Nokia a billion incentives to do so, given the lukewarm reception to Windows Phone 7 at that point.

https://www.pocketgamer.biz/feature/31401/playscreens-william-d-volk-asks-is-nokia-the-myspace-of-mobile/

MomJeans420
Mar 19, 2007



radmonger posted:

In any case, not properly investing in EV development was a clear unforced mistake by car manufacturers, not something to be argued for.

It actually made a lot of sense, take a look at Toyota - most profitable car manufacturer, definitely punted on BEVs.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

MomJeans420 posted:

It actually made a lot of sense, take a look at Toyota - most profitable car manufacturer, definitely punted on BEVs.

:ughh:

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

So let's take a look at some numbers, 2019 compared to 2020:
https://alansfactoryoutlet.com/which-major-car-companies-were-the-most-and-least-profitable-in-2020/

Toyota? In terms of raw profitability, they were absolutely the highest. But that's a lead that they've had for literally decades. Meanwhile the EV market is experiencing massive demand right now, more than any of the manufacturers expected, and there's tons of money sitting on the table. Toyota understands that, which is why they have been dumping shitloads of money into making an EV (which they're releasing next year). Hyundai and Kia are actually closing the gap with Toyota in part because they are capitalizing on that demand while Toyota is not.

Issaries
Sep 15, 2008

"At the end of the day
We are all human beings
My father once told me that
The world has no borders"

QuarkJets posted:

So let's take a look at some numbers, 2019 compared to 2020:
https://alansfactoryoutlet.com/which-major-car-companies-were-the-most-and-least-profitable-in-2020/

Toyota? In terms of raw profitability, they were absolutely the highest. But that's a lead that they've had for literally decades. Meanwhile the EV market is experiencing massive demand right now, more than any of the manufacturers expected, and there's tons of money sitting on the table. Toyota understands that, which is why they have been dumping shitloads of money into making an EV (which they're releasing next year). Hyundai and Kia are actually closing the gap with Toyota in part because they are capitalizing on that demand while Toyota is not.



Those percentages are bit misleading. Hyundai and Kia 'increased' their relative profits that much, because their profits for 2019 were really bad.

Hyundai profit out of revenue: 2.56 / 90 billion.
Kia profit out of revenue: 1.57 / 50 billion.

Meanwhile the big dogs:
Toyota: 19.1 / 275 billion.
Volkswagen: 15.54 / 283 billion.

Volvo was actually doing pretty great: 3.79 / 46 billions

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

QuarkJets posted:

Toyota? In terms of raw profitability, they were absolutely the highest. But that's a lead that they've had for literally decades. Meanwhile the EV market is experiencing massive demand right now, more than any of the manufacturers expected, and there's tons of money sitting on the table. Toyota understands that, which is why they have been dumping shitloads of money into making an EV (which they're releasing next year). Hyundai and Kia are actually closing the gap with Toyota in part because they are capitalizing on that demand while Toyota is not.

Toyota famously stuck to a hydrogen strategy rather than BEVs after basically everyone else had abandoned it. It didn't work out and now they have to catch up.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Owling Howl posted:

Toyota famously stuck to a hydrogen strategy rather than BEVs after basically everyone else had abandoned it. It didn't work out and now they have to catch up.

Isn't Toyota buying ready made solutions from BYD and sticking their body on top? If so, should be a pretty quick catch up.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

MomJeans420 posted:

It actually made a lot of sense, take a look at Toyota - most profitable car manufacturer, definitely punted on BEVs.

Toyota flirted with BEV’s 2x in the past.

During the CA EV initiative in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s (1997 to 2004) they had a NiMh RAV4 BEV that was quite decent. One of the cyclists I was riding with back then OWNED one (almost all were leased). 94 mile EPA range.

“In March 2002, due to a shift in corporate policy, the Toyota RAV4-EV was made available for sale to the general public. All 328 that Toyota made were sold.”

“The second generation RAV4 EV was released in September 2012 starting at a price of US$49,800 before any government incentives.[4][10] Toyota also offered a 36-month lease option at US$599 per month with down payment of US$3,499.[10] The RAV4 EV was sold only in California, and sales began in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles/Orange County and San Diego.”

There’s one a few houses away from me.

“ The second generation RAV4 EV combines a Tesla-designed and produced battery and electric powertrain with Toyota's SUV model. “

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/DecouplePodcast/status/1466847638226145284?s=20

Really good discussion around how comparing Fossil Fuel usages in Africa doesn't even compare to the emissions from Germany shuttering 8GW of nuclear

EoRaptor
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Owling Howl posted:

Toyota famously stuck to a hydrogen strategy rather than BEVs after basically everyone else had abandoned it. It didn't work out and now they have to catch up.

The Japanese government wanted a hydrogen/fuel cell based vehicle transition and the manufacturers based there stumbled around a bit even after it became obvious it wasn’t cost effective.

Fortunately for them, sticking your badge on another companies product is a long standing practice in the automotive industry, so they should be fine doing that while making the transition to BEV in their own lineup.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
Record electricity prices ATM and also a record cold november and december. Maybe not record breaking but it's frickin cold anyway, -20 right now and the temperature has been going up and down from -14 at warmest to -27 at it's coldest. I've adjusted my heatpump down so that the indoor temp is 16C, then I burn firewood to get it to 20C.

The way things are looking I don't want to be dependent on electricity anymore.

Aethernet
Jan 28, 2009

This is the Captain...

Our glorious political masters have, in their wisdom, decided to form an alliance with a rag-tag bunch of freedom fighters right when the Federation has us at a tactical disadvantage. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the Feds firing on our vessels...

Damn you Huxley!

Grimey Drawer

His Divine Shadow posted:

Record electricity prices ATM and also a record cold november and december. Maybe not record breaking but it's frickin cold anyway, -20 right now and the temperature has been going up and down from -14 at warmest to -27 at it's coldest. I've adjusted my heatpump down so that the indoor temp is 16C, then I burn firewood to get it to 20C.

The way things are looking I don't want to be dependent on electricity anymore.

One thing I've never understood about these systems is that surely it must be more efficient to have an alternative coolant loop attached to the burner to use as a heat source when outside temperatures are really low. Is it simply a coolant chemistry problem?

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Aethernet posted:

One thing I've never understood about these systems is that surely it must be more efficient to have an alternative coolant loop attached to the burner to use as a heat source when outside temperatures are really low. Is it simply a coolant chemistry problem?

Solutions like that do exist (they work against a big tank), but the question in my case is: Where am I gonna store all that heat? To realistically store the energy given off by burning wood for a hydronic system you need a tank, and it'd be a pretty huge project to add one if it does not already have it. I do not for instance.

The common wisdom here is to make effective use of a wood boiler is that you need an insulated tank of many cubic meters at least. It's fine if that's gonna be your primary heating system, or if you are building a new house.

So I have a masonry heater that weighs in at around 1385kg iirc. It's quite effective at heating the house and I don't need a boiler room or any plumbing work done.

I'd love to have a boiler room though, but it's not realistic.

evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

I mean that's the downside of every air source pump. If you really care, you dig a hole.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

evil_bunnY posted:

I mean that's the downside of every air source pump. If you really care, you dig a hole.

I got a borehole for my pump. It still requires electricity.

evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

His Divine Shadow posted:

I got a borehole for my pump. It still requires electricity.
I misunderstood the cold as being the issue, instead of the energy costs. Do you live someplace you can reasonably do mostly off-grid or grid-tie renewable + storage?

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
I live in Finland, the cheapest option I got is more firewood.

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Speaking of Finland

https://twitter.com/tvo_fi/status/1468533569014444035?s=20

quote:

Great news from Olkiluoto! The application for the criticality and low power test permit for the #OL3 plant unit has been submitted to
@STUK_FI
Once the permit has been granted #TVO , it will indicate its possible effects on the timetable for starting electricity production.

Also, new climate denial strategy: Conservatives want to outlaw 'Woke Capitalism' that discriminates against fossil fuels

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kb84z/woke-capitalism-discriminates-against-fossil-fuels-conservative-lawmakers-say

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Dec 9, 2021

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