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Willa Rogers posted:I thought Enten said that 20 percent of Biden 2020 voters who weren't voting for him this year bc of Israel are supporting RFK instead, but I'd have to rewatch it to make sure. I apologize if I didn't remember it correctly. Scroll just a few tweets down on Enten's Twitter to find the answer: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1783141483119333574 It's true that many Biden 2020 voters are saying they're not going to vote for Biden in 2024. And it's also true that many Biden 2020 voters are saying they don't approve of Biden's handling of the events in Gaza. However, the data we have indicates that this is correlation, not causation. Tracking the polling back through time suggests that Biden had lost those voters long before the Gaza war even started.
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May 11, 2024 21:53
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Yeah, Biden's support among young voters dropped a LOT before the war (29 percent to 11 percent), and then by more than half again after the war began. As I've said, I don't think young people's drop-off in Biden support will swing the election (particularly because Biden's strongest support in a lot of polling comes from those 65 and older, who are the most reliable voters). But as I've also said, add in disaffected Muslim voters and other demographics (like Black/Hispanic voters) for which Biden's support has softened (and again I'll point out that there's overlap among all these groups with younger voters), as well as the handful of swing states that will determine the outcome of the election, and a small group of voters could have an disproportionate effect on the election. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:10 on May 11, 2024 |
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May 11, 2024 22:05
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Biden and Trump have very high unfavorable numbers. Voting for someone who definitely won't win lets people participate in the election without the responsibility of picking a bad winner or stigma of picking a hated loser.
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May 11, 2024 22:11
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Are those broken up between those who dislike Biden on Israel because they support either Palestine or Israel? Because some people I know definitely were mad Biden wasn't doing more even before the latest sorta pause in arms support and support Trump because they believe he'll be all in for Israel.
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May 11, 2024 22:19
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Willa Rogers posted:Yeah, Biden's support among young voters dropped a LOT before the war (29 percent to 11 percent), and then by more than half again after the war began. That's a completely different conversation from the one we were just having, isn't it? We weren't talking about which particular issues or demographics might or might not swing the election. We were talking about whether younger voters might be moving from Biden to RFK over Gaza, and what the reasons for that could possibly be considering RFK's Gaza policy: Willa Rogers posted:eta: As an example, I've been surprised at the chunk of younger voters who went from voting Biden in 2020 to supporting RFK now, especially those who are angry at Biden bc of abetting genocide in Gaza--the voters who Harry Enten talked about in that CNN clip I posted yesterday. Willa Rogers posted:I still don't understand why someone upset over Biden bc of Israel would choose RFK, who's as much of a hawk on Israel as Biden & Trump. That was the question I was answering just now, and my head's spinning more than a bit at how fast the subject changed just now.
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May 11, 2024 22:23
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Main Paineframe posted:That's a completely different conversation from the one we were just having, isn't it? We weren't talking about which particular issues or demographics might or might not swing the election. We were talking about whether younger voters might be moving from Biden to RFK over Gaza, and what the reasons for that could possibly be considering RFK's Gaza policy: Why is your head spinning? Did you ask a particular question of me that I haven't yet answered? The conversation we've been having encompassed the reasons that younger people aren't supporting Biden as they did in 2020. I said I thought it was weird for those younger voters who dislike Biden on Israel to support Kennedy. I still think it's weird for someone who said they dislike Biden's policy on Israel to choose to support Kennedy. I acknowledge they could have many other reasons than Israel for doing so. Does that clear things up, or are you still confused? eta: Is it that you you were trying to narrow the topic down to Israel and wanted me to specifically acknowledge something that I did not? Because I've discussed a lot of reasons showing up in polling among a lot of demographics throughout this thread. But if you want a specific answer or acknowledgment from me, maybe state it more specifically to me & I'll do my best to respond in a way that satisfies you. 
Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:43 on May 11, 2024 |
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May 11, 2024 22:36
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RFK has name recognition. Most people can't even name another 3rd party candidate. Meanwhile the news and this thread is going hog wild over a 3rd party candidate revealing he used to have a brain worm.
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May 11, 2024 22:48
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Willa Rogers posted:Why is your head spinning? Did you ask a particular question of me that I haven't yet answered? The conversation that the thread has been having over the last couple of pages was about Kennedy, not Biden. And the posts that you were making that I responded to were also pretty much entirely about Kennedy, not Biden. So I was a little surprised that when I jumped into this conversation about Kennedy, you stopped talking about Kennedy entirely. Similarly, you were the one who narrowed the topic down to Israel. I was specifically responding to questions that you asked about whether positions on Israel, specifically, were causing people to shift from Biden to RFK. To be frank, I wouldn't have bothered joining the conversation if I'd realized that you were just aiming for the thousandth iteration of the "is Biden's Gaza position going to lose him the election, even though polls pretty much unanimously show that there's tons of other issues that voters are way madder at him about?" circular argument that never seems to satisfy anyone. I've said my piece on that one plenty of times already, and the rest of us all have as well. "Are voters moving to Kennedy because of Gaza policy, and if so, why?" (which is the question that you seemed to be asking) is at least a novel question, even if the answer appears to be "nope, it's correlation rather than causation".
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May 11, 2024 23:55
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Thanks for the detailed explanation; that clarifies where our disconnect came in, because you maintain that I was asking:quote:"Are voters moving to Kennedy because of Gaza policy, and if so, why?" (which is the question that you seemed to be asking) and because that was not what I was asking; I was asking why young voters who specifically oppose Biden's Israel policy (see Enten's video) would support Kennedy. You are correct that correlation is different from causation, which is why I then acknowledged that there were other reasons for young voters choosing Kennedy. In other words, I was validating what you had said, not arguing against it. Does that clear things up?
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May 12, 2024 00:01
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Clearly the Anti Choice, Anti Women, Anti Trans, Anti Muslim, Anti Immigrant positions that both RFK and Trump are pushing are resonating with young voters in a way that Biden can't compete with. Or it's May and there is a vast media interest in pushing a horse race to drive engagement. See the last 200+ years of journalism.
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May 12, 2024 20:04
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Pier news the Sagamore has had its aid cargo trans loaded to the Benavidez. They are doing this to let the Sagamore go back to Cyprus to pick up another load of aid rather than continuing to wait on the weather to get better. the Benavidez is going to stay nearby and discharge immediately when the pier gets going. https://seapowermagazine.org/dod-uses-unfavorable-sea-conditions-to-gain-efficiencies-on-gaza-aid-mission/
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May 13, 2024 01:49
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GoonGPT posted:Clearly the Anti Choice, Anti Women, Anti Trans, Anti Muslim, Anti Immigrant positions that both RFK and Trump are pushing are resonating with young voters in a way that Biden can't compete with. Since the primaries were over before they began for both parties, this. Think about all the investment in Ron DeSantis in the media, the dreaded “competent fascist” who would sweep past Trump to clench the nomination. A more relevant story about RFK than any nonsense early poll is this, detailing his challenges getting on the ballot in all 50 states. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/politics/rfk-jr-ballot-access/index.html In brief, not gong well. He’s trying to get on through minor parties who already have ballot access, the sort who name themselves the “independent party” to trick people into registering with them instead of Republican or Democrat. It’s a complex, involved process and different in each state… the fact that hasn’t done it yet or made up his own party to run on like Perot’s Reform Party speaks to a low level of organization and competence.
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May 13, 2024 01:59
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Wheeljack posted:Since the primaries were over before they began for both parties, this. Think about all the investment in Ron DeSantis in the media, the dreaded “competent fascist” who would sweep past Trump to clench the nomination. The story says that he's waiting till deadlines for states' petition submissions are nearing because of the challenges: quote:The campaign is waiting to submit petitions in states where it said it has collected enough signatures to qualify until the deadlines in those states draw closer in hopes of reducing opportunities for legal challenges from Democrats and Republicans, a second campaign official told CNN. Now, that just might be false bravado but the story is interesting insofar as the legal battles the campaign is fighting against ballot challenges: quote:The team works closely with Paul Rossi, the campaign’s lead ballot access attorney who has spearheaded lawsuits challenging petition filing deadlines and signature gathering protocols and coordinated the campaign’s defense against legal challenges over its ballot access work. It's also interesting that he's holding rallies to gather petition signatures to appear on the ballot, as well as having third parties with established ballot access (including George Wallace's American Independent Party) to have him run as their nominee. The real biggie would be the Libertarian Party nominating him next weekend at their national convention bc they have ballot access in all 50 states, but he's been lukewarm about that & so have the libertarians. The metric I'd love to know is the partisan breakdown of those entities challenging his ballot access, because if RFK really is a threat to Trump I'd expect state GOP parties to start being as aggressive in challenging him as the Democrats have been, according to the NYT: quote:It is unclear whether Mr. Kennedy’s presence on the ballot poses a greater electoral threat to President Biden or former President Donald J. Trump. Polls suggest he could draw votes from both major-party candidates in the general election. But the Democratic Party is more openly concerned with Mr. Kennedy’s candidacy, and has dedicated national legal and public-relations teams to tempering his influence. This New York mag piece from late March describes the efforts Democrats are making to keep him off the ballot. (I haven't seen a comparable effort among the GOP, but maybe one has started since the NY mag piece ran.) eta: I tried searching for a parallel effort from Republicans to thwart RFK from state ballots but couldn't find anything, so if anyone knows of any GOP groups doing so, please share! Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 02:55 on May 13, 2024 |
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May 13, 2024 02:34
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People are not smart; a small but significant number of Dems absolutely will go for him because of name recognition and tummyfeels
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May 13, 2024 05:38
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I don’t think the GOP groups have the manpower, brainpower or money to successfully challenge much; the money is being sucked into the black hole that is Trump grift and the brain drain was pretty much complete last year. All the competent state level legal fascists are working hard trying to do an end run around state power to regulate abortion access/trans health care by making it all civil suits brought by third parties ala Texas. No one seems to care bout ballot access. The Dems are old hands at that game though and it’s not going to matter how close to the deadline he submits they’ll have challenges up in every state worth contesting within hours.
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May 13, 2024 05:40
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Kristi Noem is now banned from entering 20 percent of her state's landmass https://twitter.com/AP/status/1789498252280156576 quote:The Yankton Sioux Tribe voted Friday to ban Noem from their land in southeastern South Dakota just a few days after the Sisseton-Wahpeton Ovate tribe took the same action. The Oglala, Rosebud, Cheyenne River and Standing Rock Sioux tribes had already taken action to keep her off their reservations. Three other tribes haven’t yet banned her. People use the phrase "meteoric rise" but meteors don't rise do they. They fall.
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May 13, 2024 14:23
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zoux posted:
I mean if they are crashing so hard, they are falling right?
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May 13, 2024 14:45
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That's what I'm saying, I've never seen a politician crash and burn this hard before. I guess it wasn't possible before, in the old times Noem would've been done as soon as her affair with Lewandowski became public.
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May 13, 2024 14:53
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Jury selection for Bob Menendez' corruption trial begins today.quote:Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey faces his second, distinct bribery and corruption trial in seven years starting Monday.
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May 13, 2024 14:54
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zoux posted:Kristi Noem is now banned from entering 20 percent of her state's landmass Getting myself banned from my own state to own the libs.
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May 13, 2024 15:46
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I'm glad to see the spirit of that poor pup getting its much deserved revenge arc.
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May 13, 2024 15:53
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Xand_Man posted:People are not smart; a small but significant number of Dems absolutely will go for him because of name recognition and tummyfeels Given you have to be pretty old for those to be pretty significant, I think a lot of those will be the kind of Dems that miss the old days when Democrats "weren't ashamed to be white" or something, and haven't voted for one in the White House since 9/11.
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May 13, 2024 16:09
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NYT released another batch of Siena polling today, with breakdowns for the swing states. The national sample was very large--almost 4100 voters--and the swing-state subsamples were all decently sized, too. Like Siena's last poll, Biden's strongest support is among the oldest voters; xers break for Trump 47-32 (n = 1254, a decent subsample). RFK's greatest support is among the youngest voters:  (I didn't include the other third-party candidates bc their support was negligible but I did learn that the libertarians already have a candidate, Lars Mapstead.) Siena also polled the swing states on their Senate races: NV has Rosen +2 (lower than her last Siena poll, iirc); AZ has Gallego +4; PA has Casey +5; and Baldwin is +9 in WI. As reflected in other polls (including prior Siena polling) Democratic candidates in swing states are outpolling Biden. When RFK & other 3rd-party supporters are asked to lean D-R, it mainly helps Trump in the swing states. WI remains +1 Trump in both instances; AZ goes from Trump +6 to Trump +9; GA goes from Trump +9 to Trump +8; NV goes from Trump +13 (  ) to Trump +14; PA goes from Trump +3 to Trump +4; and MI goes from Biden +1 to Biden +3.Both Biden & Trump lose voters to RFK, but it looks like Trump does slightly better when RFK isn't a factor. That makes it all the more mystifying to me that the Democrats are so intent on knocking RFK off ballots but it further reinforces my contention that Trump is painting RFK as a far-lefty for pragmatic reasons.
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May 13, 2024 16:21
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Willa Rogers posted:. That makes it all the more mystifying to me that the Democrats are so intent on knocking RFK off ballots but it further reinforces my contention that Trump is painting RFK as a far-lefty for pragmatic reasons. Maybe Democratic operatives might have a certain amount of history regarding perceived nutjob or spoiler candidates who "can never win" loving up races that should have been slam democratic wins.
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May 13, 2024 16:32
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2024 somehow brings back split-ticketing in the United States... it'll be one of many things I find puzzling about the world.
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May 13, 2024 16:34
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Eric Cantonese posted:2024 somehow brings back split-ticketing in the United States... it'll be one of many things I find puzzling about the world. I'll believe it when I see it. Especially by nearly double digit margins. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1789991007439777982 That's insane.
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May 13, 2024 16:38
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zoux posted:I'll believe it when I see it. Especially by nearly double digit margins. I think it's worth remembering that in late summer 2016 Johnson was polling at 12% and Stein at 6%. Give me numbers for third party candidates in August and I'll happily halve them for real-world estimates too. You can't really apples-to-apples spring though since in 2016 there was no incumbent and even if the nominees were clear by May, the path of least resistance for complaining about them was demanding action for your guy at the convention or something. This year there are effectively two incumbents and no primary challenges of note so third party is already the main way to tell a pollster you're not a big fan of either.
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May 13, 2024 16:56
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I don’t love that NYTimes did the headlines based on registered voters when the likely voters results were much less dramatic. But gotta get those clicks.
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May 13, 2024 16:58
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there's some kind of deep irony that the tea leaves suggest to me that the dem's presidential hopes rise as turnout lowers. probably a one-off due to a historically unique candidate in the race, but would be funny if this is a long term shift and all the republican strategic road blocks to suppress turn out start to work against them
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May 13, 2024 17:11
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Maybe Democratic operatives might have a certain amount of history regarding perceived nutjob or spoiler candidates who "can never win" loving up races that should have been slam democratic wins. Good point, lol, although the Libertarian vote was greater than the Green vote in each of MI, WI & PA in 2016; I was surprised about this when I looked it up recently. zoux posted:I'll believe it when I see it. Especially by nearly double digit margins. Ticket-splitting's been a trend this year; Democratic Senate candidates have been doing far better than Biden across a lot of polls, although not as massive a split as NV results in this poll. While I'd love to see focus groups that delve into the reasons behind the split, I can see some possible reasons for it happening: * The Senate candidates except for Gallego are all incumbents, and voters usually prefer incumbent candidates for congressional races. Many of them served in the House before the Senate so they're old & familiar faces to voters. * People not immersed in politics probably are less inclined to see opposing political parties as evil/thwarting democracy/the destruction of our country as those who are more engaged. * Biden's campaign isn't as savvy at drawing voters as the Senate candidates' campaigns. I haven't seen that many Biden ads (especially not living in a swing state) but the ones I've seen online can't really do anything about him coming off as an old man & they are pretty tepid. * I'm seeing more political critiques of the disconnect between the campaign touting Bidenomics & what people are experiencing economically; as we've discussed, even when people say they're doing ok they're worried about their economic futures. * The Biden administration's support for genocide in Gaza is in the news far more often than the occasional Senate vote to fund it or to define anti-semitism. For those of you in swing states, what sorts of ads are you seeing for Biden & your senatorial candidate? (online or otherwise) eta: I think that the generational splits for president are way more intriguing than the senate/presidential ticket-splitting. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:28 on May 13, 2024 |
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May 13, 2024 17:18
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:there's some kind of deep irony that the tea leaves suggest to me that the dem's presidential hopes rise as turnout lowers. probably a one-off due to a historically unique candidate in the race, but would be funny if this is a long term shift and all the republican strategic road blocks to suppress turn out start to work against them This is a bizarre new flavor of unfounded doomerism I haven't seen before. Somehow all prevailing trends are going to reverse here?
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May 13, 2024 17:20
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smackfu posted:I don’t love that NYTimes did the headlines based on registered voters when the likely voters results were much less dramatic. But gotta get those clicks. They polled likely voters nationally, and they also polled how likely swing-state voters were to vote this year:  Or did you mean something else, outside of the crosstabs?
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May 13, 2024 17:22
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Mainly commenting that a headline of “Trump Leads in 5 Key States” was followed by this paragraph. But maybe I’m misreading the intent.quote:The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
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May 13, 2024 17:27
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kdrudy posted:This is a bizarre new flavor of unfounded doomerism I haven't seen before. Somehow all prevailing trends are going to reverse here? it's not doomerism, it's the string of democratic outperformance in special elections compared to on-cycle elections. this is indeed a sudden reversal of prevailing trends
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May 13, 2024 17:28
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:it's not doomerism, it's the string of democratic outperformance in special elections compared to on-cycle elections. this is indeed a sudden reversal of prevailing trends The problem is that a perfectly valid explanation for this might be "Trump chases away all non Trump voter Republicans, and Trump voters only show when Trump himself is on the ballot." Off cycle elections aren't necessarily predictive because Trump is a one-off.
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May 13, 2024 17:33
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The problem is that a perfectly valid explanation for this might be "Trump chases away all non Trump voter Republicans, and Trump voters only show when Trump himself is on the ballot." GhostofJohnMuir posted:there's some kind of deep irony that the tea leaves suggest to me that the dem's presidential hopes rise as turnout lowers. probably a one-off due to a historically unique candidate in the race, but would be funny if this is a long term shift and all the republican strategic road blocks to suppress turn out start to work against them ???????
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May 13, 2024 17:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The problem is that a perfectly valid explanation for this might be "Trump chases away all non Trump voter Republicans, and Trump voters only show when Trump himself is on the ballot." It's also impossible to know how much Trump's 2020 turnout will translate to 2024 since that happened at a time he'd just attached his name to checks being passed out to everyone, and when right-wing populists around the world were enjoying a covid-driven rally around the flag effect despite all the associated economic and health hardship.
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May 13, 2024 17:44
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:there's some kind of deep irony that the tea leaves suggest to me that the dem's presidential hopes rise as turnout lowers. probably a one-off due to a historically unique candidate in the race, but would be funny if this is a long term shift and all the republican strategic road blocks to suppress turn out start to work against them It is an ironic long-term shift. Suburban voters vote at higher rates than Urban or Rural voters and this group is most put off by GOP policies, both embracing Trumpism and escalating the culture war. Can the GOP get them back after? (Betteridge Law: No) It would explain a lot of the discrepancy we're seeing with special elections as Dems consistently overperform in them: the GOP voters most engaged are those least likely to vote, and the Dem voters most engaged are most likely to vote.
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May 13, 2024 17:46
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Right. Trump us basically a rolling statistical black swan.
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May 13, 2024 17:47
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Killer robot posted:It's also impossible to know how much Trump's 2020 turnout will translate to 2024 since that happened at a time he'd just attached his name to checks being passed out to everyone, and when right-wing populists around the world were enjoying a covid-driven rally around the flag effect despite all the associated economic and health hardship. It was far more than checks that were offered as pandemic relief under Trump: no-questions-asked for free healthcare under Medicaid; loan & capitalized interest forbearance for students; protection for tenants & mortgagees; and an additional $600/week in unemployment comp. The first tranche of relief happened with the help of Congressional Democrats but even as some relief termed out six months later Trump partially extended it by executive order. He also helped expedite a covid vaccine within six months. This isn't an argument on behalf of Trump but rather setting the record straight on why some voters might be nostalgic for him (and that's leaving aside how the cost of living has exploded since then). eta: iirc, most polls show more 2020 Trump voters supporting him this year than 2020 Biden voters supporting Biden this year. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 18:13 on May 13, 2024 |
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May 13, 2024 18:07
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