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iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

Psion posted:

As for mission capable rates in 1991:
A-10: 95.5%
but that's not really unusual:
F-15C/D: 93.7%
F-15E: 95.5%
F-16: 95.4%
oh, and
KC-10: 95%

:psyboom:

So that's what it looks like to have a fully funded O&M account. Seriously, KC-10 at a 95% MC rate, even taking into account that poo poo is all about how you twist the numbers, my mind is exploding right now.

Where are you getting those numbers from? That's probably a source I would find highly interesting.

Alaan posted:

A-10s and Tornadoes were basically the cause of the no doing poo poo under 10,000 feet rule in Gulf War 1. Being under there vs. a reasonably modern enemy is really not healthy for you.

To be fair, if I remember correctly the A-10 was also picking up a lot of mission creep and doing poo poo it had no right to be doing which was partly to blame for the losses. I think the Tornado pilots were more stubborn about getting down and dirty.

Big thing with the Tornados was low level unguided toss bombing, usually targeting rather heavily defended airfields...although surprisingly no aircraft were lost to enemy fire while employing JP233 (one did go down, but it was more than likely CFIT).

Alaan posted:

I was poking around a bit and it's actually kind of grey. For some reason A-10s seemed to have significantly worse/less assessment of the strikes they made. There is some giant Government Accounting Office doc( http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-97-134/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-97-134.htm ) that get's into cost:benefit of the various airframes and it kind of has to gloss over the A-10 because of insufficient/bad data. Though it was clear it and the F-16 were the kings of sorty numbers in the air war.

That looks like a pretty cool document from a data perspective, but...

quote:

One of the stated advantages of stealth technology is that it
enhances survivability, and in Desert Storm, the stealthy F-117 was
the only aircraft type to incur neither losses nor damage. However,
these aircraft recorded fewer sorties than any other air-to-ground
platform and flew exclusively at night and at medium altitudes--an
operating environment in which the fewest casualties occurred among
all types of aircraft.\13


--------------------
\13 For example, nonstealthy aircraft, such as the F-111F and F-16,
also suffered no losses when operating at night, and the A-10s
experienced neither damage nor losses at night. Each of these three
aircraft types flew at least as many night strikes as the F-117.

:psyduck:

So I guess we'll ignore that all of those F-117 sorties were over downtown Baghdad while the majority of the other sorties...weren't. In fact, when the F-16s tried to go downtown in numbers, it didn't exactly turn out well.

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Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011

iyaayas01 posted:

So that's what it looks like to have a fully funded O&M account. Seriously, KC-10 at a 95% MC rate, even taking into account that poo poo is all about how you twist the numbers, my mind is exploding right now.
It probably helps that they were less than a decade old at that point, but yeah... wow.

quote:

So I guess we'll ignore that all of those F-117 sorties were over downtown Baghdad while the majority of the other sorties...weren't. In fact, when the F-16s tried to go downtown in numbers, it didn't exactly turn out well.
It's still a pretty good point that it's hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison when you have different types of aircraft doing different mission sets with different tactics/ROE.

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

Dead Reckoning posted:

I don't want to pretend I can read minds, but: he was never serious about that. At the same time, I think it was even in the same speech/paper, he was talking about sending the entire KC-10 fleet to the boneyard as well (which got significantly less attention because the KC-10 doesn't do fake strafing passes at airshows, despite it having a much larger impact on overall readiness.) He was just playing the game.

To explain: every time a city council has to cut the budget, someone will propose: "Let's start with a baseline 5% cut in every department's budget... including the Fire Department." The Fire Chief never responds with, "Well, I suppose we could reduce pensions slightly and defer maintenance on our vehicles until things stabilize." Instead, the Fire Chief stands up, looking sad, and says; "Having examined all the options, the only way we can afford a 5% cut in these tight fiscal times is to close a fire house in one of your districts."

I'm sure in a locked file cabinet somewhere in his office, Gen Welsh has a detailed plan of exactly how much money could be saved by different cuts to the Air Force's budget. He will never show it to anyone outside his staff, because he isn't retarded. If the CSAF stood up in front of Congress and said, "We can afford to trim all of these superfluous items and still maintain mission readiness" all of that stuff would get cut, and then more, because everyone is making sacrifices and you said you could survive a 35% reduction so 40% isn't a big deal, right? Of course, some of the useless stuff wouldn't get cut because it was in the right congressional district, and the Navy sure as hell wouldn't reciprocate by saying "well, I suppose we could make do with one less carrier."

I dunno...I'm familiar with the Washington Monument approach, and don't get me wrong, there is more than a fair bit of that in all these discussions. But if you look at the numbers and the budget realities we face*, if nothing changes I don't see how we get out of this without axing a MDS or two. Horizontal cuts aren't going to get it done without crippling us across the board and leading to a hollow force, eliminating an entire MDS and the attending logistics backend is the only way I see it working. We're basically using all the money we got on top of the baseline we were expecting in the FY14 budget to start repairing the damage to readiness that the no-fly period did to us last year, so none of that is going into the acquisition pot. Acquisitions is a complete disaster thanks to the F-35 dumpster fire and the KC-X debacle, but we have to, have to recapitalize, we've mortgaged our future for the past 20 years and now we're out of options. And that money has to come from somewhere. I mean, poo poo, people in USAF uniforms with stars are talking very publicly about how we're going down significantly from 65 Pred/Reaper CAPs in the near future, regardless of what the COCOMs say they want. That would get you put up against a wall and shot two years ago.

* In a perfect world, where we got to control our own money/budget and there were no restrictions/pots of money, I agree, this would be a spending ploy (just like the fact that we're getting rid of the U-2) because we'd be able to "trim all of those superfluous items." But unfortunately we don't live in that perfect world, so a lot of that isn't possible (even if it makes sense)...so poo poo like canning the U-2 in favor of a more expensive less capable Global Chicken are a reality thanks to Congress, just like how we're going to get rid of an entire MDS instead of closing useless bases, thanks to Congress explicitly forbidding us from even beginning to plan for another round of BRAC, much less executing.

Dead Reckoning posted:

It's still a pretty good point that it's hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison when you have different types of aircraft doing different mission sets with different tactics/ROE.

That's my point, the way I read that GAO report it makes it sound like they're saying that the F-117 was relatively worthless because it cost oodles of money and was supposed to be more survivable compared to the cheaper A-10 but the F-117 flew way less sorties and neither aircraft suffered any losses when flying at medium altitude at night...never mind the fact that the F-117 was flying at medium altitude at night over downtown Baghdad while the A-10 was flying at medium altitude at night over Kuwait/southern Iraq.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it but it seems like shades of the old trope about how if the beancounters ran everything we'd have nothing but bayonets because they're the most cost effective.

priznat
Jul 7, 2009

Let's get drunk and kiss each other all night.

iyaayas01 posted:

Big thing with the Tornados was low level unguided toss bombing, usually targeting rather heavily defended airfields...although surprisingly no aircraft were lost to enemy fire while employing JP233 (one did go down, but it was more than likely CFIT).

Yessssss... JP233s, cool. I know cluster munitions are horrible in their way for spewing dangerous bomblets around that civilians (especially kids) can pick up (why would they be around a military airfield though?) but drat they look nifty.

gently caress YO RUNWAYS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAGmDqH4c-8

poo poo rear end quality but some pretty slick low level stuff here. I always thought Tornados were awesome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTPlk70eSLY&t=285s
:stare: at around 5:45

The MW-1 was even more impressive looking than the JP233 though
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLqCxCLKfGk

StandardVC10
Feb 6, 2007

This avatar now 50% more dark mode compliant
The KC-10 has a reputation for unreliability? I didn't know that. Seems kind of counterintuitive, being derived from a workaday passenger plane.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
To reiterate the thing about the USAF (and the USN for that matter) and CAS, I have some visibility on some absolutely massive efforts to modernize that whole construct. It is a serious effort that goes all the way to the top of the organization. I have no idea how people got the impression that the mission wasn't a priority.

Psion
Dec 13, 2002

eVeN I KnOw wHaT CoRnEr gAs iS

iyaayas01 posted:

:psyboom:

So that's what it looks like to have a fully funded O&M account. Seriously, KC-10 at a 95% MC rate, even taking into account that poo poo is all about how you twist the numbers, my mind is exploding right now.

Where are you getting those numbers from? That's probably a source I would find highly interesting.


It's from this: http://www.amazon.com/Storm-over-Ir...Storm+over+Iraq

In the interests of fairness, I have no reason to doubt his numbers but I don't know exactly where they came from, either. I admit I threw in the KC-10 one knowing it'd get some reaction from you or another AF person. Success!

Psion fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Feb 21, 2014

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe
I'm surprised that study didn't lambast Tomahawks for their cost-effectiveness. We lost every loving one we sent over Iraq.

Snowdens Secret
Dec 29, 2008
Someone got you a obnoxiously racist av.

VikingSkull posted:

I'm surprised that study didn't lambast Tomahawks for their cost-effectiveness. We lost every loving one we sent over Iraq.

Not only that, a significant number of their launch platforms sunk, with no evidence of even being fired upon

Psion
Dec 13, 2002

eVeN I KnOw wHaT CoRnEr gAs iS

Snowdens Secret posted:

Not only that, a significant number of their launch platforms sunk, with no evidence of even being fired upon

Not to mention the ones that didn't were 1930s-era technology. Honestly :rolleyes:

Flikken
Oct 23, 2009

10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it
Hey not every missile can be like a HARM and be brought back to base.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Flikken posted:

Hey not every missile can be like a HARM and be brought back to base.

:thurman:

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

StandardVC10 posted:

The KC-10 has a reputation for unreliability? I didn't know that. Seems kind of counterintuitive, being derived from a workaday passenger plane.

A passenger plane that was phased out of service almost as soon as the airlines could replace them. They didn't have a reputation for reliability there, either.

But most of the Air Force's heavies are mediocre in that area. The picture came out too blurry to keep, but outside the ECP to the AWACS ramp at Tinker, there's an electronic sign with stupid mottos and poo poo flashing up. Well, one of them was something like "Safe, reliable, ready:" followed by the mission ready rate for the month. I had to laugh when it said something like 65%. Which was about normal.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
The only domestic 'airline' that still uses DC-10s is FedEx. They're getting phased out and getting parts for them is a pain in the rear end. The KC-X competition was probably one of the most crooked contracts in a long time, but maintenance on a 767 framed tanker will be a lot cheaper than one based on the A330.

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



BIG HEADLINE posted:

The only domestic 'airline' that still uses DC-10s is FedEx. They're getting phased out and getting parts for them is a pain in the rear end. The KC-X competition was probably one of the most crooked contracts in a long time, but maintenance on a 767 framed tanker will be a lot cheaper than one based on the A330.

Why is this? Euro vs. American parts?

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?
And there's a more robust (higher demand) logistics chain in the US for Boeing vs Airbus.

MrChips
Jun 10, 2005

FLIGHT SAFETY TIP: Fatties out first

Godholio posted:

A passenger plane that was phased out of service almost as soon as the airlines could replace them. They didn't have a reputation for reliability there, either.

I still find it funny that the civilian side puts up way better dispatch rates for their DC-10s than the military, despite the fact that the civilian aircraft are typically busted-rear end, third- or fourth-hand aircraft flying far more hours per month than the KC-10, in spite of all the KC-10s being a new-built, uniform fleet of aircraft that apart from the refuelling system and a couple black boxes are exactly the same as any DC-10.

Godholio posted:

And there's a more robust (higher demand) logistics chain in the US for Boeing vs Airbus.

Airbus is a huge player in the US; I promise you that's not the issue. The only reason why the A330 might cost more to maintain is that it is a far more complicated aircraft than the 767, and experience from the civilian side shows an A330 as being about the same cost to maintain overall as a 767 in terms of dollars per flying hour.

E: Of course, once everybody and their dog get their fingers into the maintenance contract of a KC-46 vs. the hypothetical KC-45, all bets are off as to which comes out cheapest.

MrChips fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Feb 22, 2014

Servicio en Espanol
Feb 5, 2009

Dead Reckoning posted:

Oh hey, what's up.

You keep saying that the Air Force hates the A-10 and the whole idea of CAS, and I've wrote out a few long posts already explaining why you're wrong, but you keep saying it anyway. So I'm just going to keep this one short and say that literally everything you wrote in that post is false.

I wasn't even the guy who brought it up this time, sport. My post was regarding the origin of Rutan's ground attack prototype.

Ed. Well I briefly mentioned it, but I was just repeating what the National Guard apparently said in the report so I don't think you can really lay that on me.

Servicio en Espanol fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Feb 23, 2014

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

Servicio en Espanol posted:

Ed. Well I briefly mentioned it, but I was just repeating what the National Guard apparently said in the report so I don't think you can really lay that on me.

Hm, yes, I can see no reason that the entity who really wishes it was its own separate branch (someone remind me again why they have their own seat on the JCS now) and that does more lobbying with Congress than the other actual branches of the military combined would have to lie or otherwise stretch the truth in a report that was attempting to generate more missions and money for itself.

Servicio en Espanol
Feb 5, 2009
Ed. Not worth it.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

iyaayas01 posted:

Hm, yes, I can see no reason that the entity who really wishes it was its own separate branch (someone remind me again why they have their own seat on the JCS now) and that does more lobbying with Congress than the other actual branches of the military combined would have to lie or otherwise stretch the truth in a report that was attempting to generate more missions and money for itself.

Wait are we talking about the Guard or the Marines?

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler
I know the Marines flick it to Guadalcanal, but what does the National Guard think of to curl their toes and ask for more independence. . . the Alamo?

Snowdens Secret
Dec 29, 2008
Someone got you a obnoxiously racist av.

Blistex posted:

I know the Marines flick it to Guadalcanal, but what does the National Guard think of to curl their toes and ask for more independence. . . the Alamo?

Red Dawn

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe

Blistex posted:

I know the Marines flick it to Guadalcanal, but what does the National Guard think of to curl their toes and ask for more independence. . . the Alamo?

Hurricane Katrina.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler


Party Plane Jones posted:

Hurricane Katrina.

This is why I love this thread!

I also would have accepted Kent State.

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

MrChips posted:

I still find it funny that the civilian side puts up way better dispatch rates for their DC-10s than the military, despite the fact that the civilian aircraft are typically busted-rear end, third- or fourth-hand aircraft flying far more hours per month than the KC-10, in spite of all the KC-10s being a new-built, uniform fleet of aircraft that apart from the refuelling system and a couple black boxes are exactly the same as any DC-10.

I find it hilarious. Military maintenance is bloated and inefficient, regardless of service branch, but USAF maintenance always seemed particularly egregiously fat and fussy.

Great to work in that environment, certainly, Charleston AFB was the only time I'd ever seen a functioning mobile O2 cart, but expensive as hell.

I've often wondered what USAF mission capable rates would look like in a no-poo poo near-peer shooting war, when all the extraneous bullshit goes out the window to put airplanes in the air.

Beardless
Aug 12, 2011

I am Centurion Titus Polonius. And the only trouble I've had is that nobody seem to realize that I'm their superior officer.

Blistex posted:

I know the Marines flick it to Guadalcanal, but what does the National Guard think of to curl their toes and ask for more independence. . . the Alamo?

D-Day? The 29th Infantry Division that landed at Omaha Beach was originally a National Guard unit.

Mortabis
Jul 8, 2010

I am stupid
It was still a National Guard unit when it landed, wasn't it? Bedford, Virginia had the highest rate of casualties in World War II because one of the lead companies of the 29th on D-Day had its armory nearby IIRC.

Beardless
Aug 12, 2011

I am Centurion Titus Polonius. And the only trouble I've had is that nobody seem to realize that I'm their superior officer.

Mortabis posted:

It was still a National Guard unit when it landed, wasn't it? Bedford, Virginia had the highest rate of casualties in World War II because one of the lead companies of the 29th on D-Day had its armory nearby IIRC.

Yup. 19 men were killed on D-Day, from a town on 3,200.

Smiling Jack
Dec 2, 2001

I sucked a dick for bus fare and then I walked home.

Also the National Guard relieved / reinforced the Marines on Guadalcanal.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
There were quite a few National Guard units shipped out to reinforce the Philippines in mid-1941, and a few en route when Pearl Harbor happened ended up diverted to Java.

No points for guessing how that ended.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

Blistex posted:

I know the Marines flick it to Guadalcanal, but what does the National Guard think of to curl their toes and ask for more independence. . . the Alamo?

Revolutionary militia. Which is A: bullshit fantasy and B: not something to be proud of anyway. They spent more time running away than fighting and had such a lovely reputation that British commanders were willing to attack into a 4:1 disadvantage.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

MrYenko posted:

I've often wondered what USAF mission capable rates would look like in a no-poo poo near-peer shooting war, when all the extraneous bullshit goes out the window to put airplanes in the air.

For most platforms they'll be sky-high, as there are a lot of minor things you don't want to deal with during a training mission (either for safety concerns or it might negate a training objective) that are acceptable for a real mission. That'll start to take its toll though.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler
When you say "minor things" do you mean things like the warning light on the auxiliary cigarette lighter APU, or things like, "I have to flick the switch 2-3 times to jettison the external fuel tank"?

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

MrYenko posted:

I find it hilarious. Military maintenance is bloated and inefficient, regardless of service branch, but USAF maintenance always seemed particularly egregiously fat and fussy.

Great to work in that environment, certainly, Charleston AFB was the only time I'd ever seen a functioning mobile O2 cart, but expensive as hell.

I've often wondered what USAF mission capable rates would look like in a no-poo poo near-peer shooting war, when all the extraneous bullshit goes out the window to put airplanes in the air.

The doubly hilarious part is that from the inside it seems anything but bloated...but that's because at any one given time somewhere along the lines of 20-25% of my workforce that is nominally "at work" (so not sick, on leave, deployed, whatever) is tasked out doing poo poo other than maintenance. And that's not counting the 10% or so that aren't capable of working on their own and are still being trained at our operational base because despite having flown this aircraft in combat for almost a decade the USAF still doesn't have a fully established formal training pipeline for maintainers. So inefficient? Absolutely. The triply hilarious part is that even in a combat zone it is still almost that bad.

In a no poo poo near-peer shooting war, I'd like to think that MC rates and the like would actually go up, but I dunno...I've had discussions with some of the old school dudes I've worked with who were around in Desert Storm, the amount of aircraft we put in the air once every couple of years as a publicity stunt today is what they were doing on a daily basis for the duration of the war. So I think I'd agree with Godholio that initially they'd be sky high because a lot of extraneous bullshit would go away but I don't think it would be sustainable, not with our current manning and supply chain.

Godholio posted:

Revolutionary militia. Which is A: bullshit fantasy and B: not something to be proud of anyway. They spent more time running away than fighting and had such a lovely reputation that British commanders were willing to attack into a 4:1 disadvantage.

Uh, excuse me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgV6VUinDEA

lol

Snowdens Secret
Dec 29, 2008
Someone got you a obnoxiously racist av.

Godholio posted:

For most platforms they'll be sky-high, as there are a lot of minor things you don't want to deal with during a training mission (either for safety concerns or it might negate a training objective) that are acceptable for a real mission. That'll start to take its toll though.

I think the assumption is that in a near-peer shooting war your ratio of maintainers and spare parts to suriviving airframes keeps going up, which counterbalances all the extra work

right arm
Oct 30, 2011


lmao how did i remember the marines fighting the one lava demon and not this??

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

right arm posted:

lmao how did i remember the marines fighting the one lava demon and not this??

They played them more in movie theaters during the commercials before the previews. I want to say that you mostly saw them sometime between 2007 and 2010 or so? I remember there was also a god awful Kid Rock one that featured both the US Army and NASCAR.

edit: ahahaha, found it. It's called "Warrior"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQXXpUK49U4

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

right arm posted:

lmao how did i remember the marines fighting the one lava demon and not this??

2:50 is the best part..."GONNA GO KICK THIS DOO--whoops never mind, gonna just run in a circle right in front of the now open door"

Cyrano4747 posted:

They played them more in movie theaters during the commercials before the previews. I want to say that you mostly saw them sometime between 2007 and 2010 or so? I remember there was also a god awful Kid Rock one that featured both the US Army and NASCAR.

edit: ahahaha, found it. It's called "Warrior"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQXXpUK49U4

Yeah, both of those were on almost non-stop rotation in movie theaters during the mid to late 2000s "we'll take anyone with a pulse" phase of recruiting.

Also lol at the kid with a soccer ball at 1:28 that doesn't get run over or smoked.

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Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

Blistex posted:

When you say "minor things" do you mean things like the warning light on the auxiliary cigarette lighter APU, or things like, "I have to flick the switch 2-3 times to jettison the external fuel tank"?

For a fighter, it might be the UHF radios that they use to communicate with wingmen and AWACS. For a wingman, he can get by with just one which will probably be tuned to the flight's frequency and his lead will relay anything from AWACS he needs to know. On a training mission, that might keep that jet on the ground depending on what the student's objectives are. For AWACS, it could be the loving radar...depending on the mission (is radio and datalink relay important enough to launch a radarless AWACS? Maybe. For training purposes, can some of the crew still get meaningful training? Again, maybe.). I've been on jets that were launched with no radar and I've been on jets that had the flight cancelled because of no radar. It all depends.

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