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sterster
Jun 19, 2006
nothing
Fun Shoe

greasyhands posted:

CVNA is almost certainly hurtling towards ch11 restructuring

From the inside it's their weird message of everything is fine. Keep doing X Y & Z. Meanwhile looking at it AS IF from and outsider I wouldn't touch it. My best guess is like 12 months at best. This includes some caveats of drop in used car prices back to normal levels. Along with banks being okay buying new papers on vehicles. Fixing our ability to sell in IL & Mi and the bad press not completely ruining our reputation.

EDIT: Or crazy take. Carmax comes in and decides it's worth it.

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ARTPUP
Jun 7, 2013

Wow what a fun Tuesday it's been! Jo Taylor is the CEO of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and made a sizeable investment in FTX trading in 2021. About $420 million worth.

From Sept of 2022:
“In terms of the risk profile, it is probably the lowest risk profile you can have in that it’s everybody else is trading on your platform,” OTPP CEO Jo Taylor told Reuters last week.

Taylor said the investment in FTX Trading is part of its strategy to learn about the crypto business and whether it gives the right balance of risks and returns.

“I don’t think we have the answer to that question yet,” Taylor said.

Well I think you know the answer now Mr. Taylor. 71% loss in a single day. POOF! He should have invested in Vinco Ventures! I think somebody is going to lose their job...


My prediction on Carvana - yes it's doomed. And once it goes bankrupt, some car collector Youtuber (Hoovies garage maybe?) is going to buy one of those car vending machines and store their collection in it, like a giant hotwheels display case.

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

I can’t stand Hoovie anymore but I would 100% be on board with him getting a carvana tower.

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
I'm starting to think AMZN at 95 wasn't the knife I shouldve caught.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Woodchip posted:

I'm starting to think AMZN at 95 wasn't the knife I shouldve caught.

I am not catching any knives until the whole drawer falls on the floor early next year

SPY is still at $378 it has a ways to go before we find support. If we hit below $348 before year end, I might dip my toe in the water but that's it

downout
Jul 6, 2009

drk posted:

Most of Europe isnt great for solar power. Its fairly far North, and low productivity even for its lattitude (clouds?):



There are some very good offshore wind resources, though

This seems like such an obvious opportunity for EU to partner with N African countries to build power lines and solar. That power generation could be world changing.

orange sky
May 7, 2007

Made a shitload on MSTR puts after CZ publicly said they'd gently caress FTX. Once in a lifetime play, worked out! Good poo poo.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

downout posted:

This seems like such an obvious opportunity for EU to partner with N African countries to build power lines and solar. That power generation could be world changing.

They are and do, but there are huge hurdles.
Sabine is a physicist and very smart, her channel on science without the gobbldegook is must-watch, and this video has some explanation (along with covering many of the other problems with generation, transmission, and storage):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8xsg9iK5yo

Femur
Jan 10, 2004
I REALLY NEED TO SHUT THE FUCK UP
Such a bloody day, I am never retiring.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


I thought the news algorithm was giving me a stock update:

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Been "pricing in" a fairly severe recession for a year now, this is the most painful poo poo ever.

When/if it ever comes, I suppose R's taking the house means no chance of fiscal stimulus. Will all be on Jpow to reverse.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

What is Wopj planning on doing to save number

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Hadlock posted:

What is Wopj planning on doing to save number

Well, he said last week that he knows how to fix a recession, but he doesn't know how to fix inflation, it should be coming down by now and it isn't. So we're gonna do the recession plan and hope that fixes inflation, but he doesn't know if it will work. It was not a confidence inspiring speech whatsoever.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Is there a transcript somewhere? I can find his stuff from jackson hole in september but not anything more recent

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Hadlock posted:

Is there a transcript somewhere? I can find his stuff from jackson hole in september but not anything more recent

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
Nasdaq might limit up because inflation is now under 8%

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
https://twitter.com/Stocktwits/status/1590696214638759937?t=NUTSKQNvq5HmA-oZNhX_Sg&s=19

Ooops

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!
https://twitter.com/JuannnioCapital/status/1590699819185491969?t=JcEkJfuGuqFP24PIrpyEVA&s=19

mongeese
Mar 30, 2003

If you think in fractals...
Number go up today!

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
Did I miss something? Indexes up 5%?!?

Shroud
May 11, 2009

Woodchip posted:

Did I miss something? Indexes up 5%?!?

I think it's because inflation came in lower than what was expected.

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Shroud posted:

I think it's because inflation came in lower than what was expected.

Its this. Some of the lovely money losing tech cos are up 20, 30% (tho deeply red for the year)

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005


this amazing tweet thread will definitely not be submitted as evidence in the future it's like we're in the room watching Ross Ulbricht write mycrimes.txt right in front of us

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590709174572572675

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

shame on an IGA posted:

this amazing tweet thread will definitely not be submitted as evidence in the future it's like we're in the room watching Ross Ulbricht write mycrimes.txt right in front of us

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590709174572572675

Oh my loving god.

Pretty sure I’ve seen screenshots of their UI where there’s a leverage slider that goes up to 1000x or something, but sure if you don’t stay on top of labeling your bank accounts things happen 🤷‍♀️

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Shroud posted:

I think it's because inflation came in lower than what was expected.

"we're past the peak!" -Someone who doesn't recognize that CPI doesn't follow a mathematically perfect curve

Wake me when CPI stays below 5% for 9 months

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Hadlock posted:

"we're past the peak!" -Someone who doesn't recognize that CPI doesn't follow a mathematically perfect curve

Wake me when CPI stays below 5% for 9 months

I still think we were past the peak awhile back, its just that the measures are lagging.

The rally is going to be front loaded, not after CPI is below 5% for 9 months.

Shroud
May 11, 2009

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

Oh my loving god.

Pretty sure I’ve seen screenshots of their UI where there’s a leverage slider that goes up to 1000x or something, but sure if you don’t stay on top of labeling your bank accounts things happen 🤷‍♀️

As if none of you haven't told your bank/credit card that poor Excel labeling was the reason you didn't realize you were in so much debt, and that you're declaring bankruptcy right now. Also, you were taking out cash advances and maxing out your cards and giving them to your alter ego to go gamble in Vegas. We're all a little guilty of that, right?

Edit: your, not our. I WAS NOT VERY CAREFUL WITH MY WORDS HERE, AND DO NOT MEAN ANY OF THEM IN A TECHNICAL OR LEGAL SENSE; I MAY WELL HAVE NOT DESCRIBED THINGS RIGHT though I'm trying to be transparent. I'M NOT A GOOD POSTER AND PROBABLY MISDESCRIBED SOMETHING.

Shroud fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Nov 10, 2022

Femur
Jan 10, 2004
I REALLY NEED TO SHUT THE FUCK UP
Look I work with 10000 char strings all day, 16? Small time.

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Shroud posted:

As if none of you haven't told our bank/credit card that poor Excel labeling playing League of Legends at work was the reason you didn't realize you were in so much debt, and that you're declaring bankruptcy right now.

ftfy

Ubiquitus
Nov 20, 2011

Has anyone dabbled in alternative asset funds? I’d like to try to diversify that way, are there any open to the general public? Looking to dip my toes, but I have no idea where to start.

I know some stuff about medicine and a lot about computers, and very rudimentary knowledge about everything else, so I’d like to stay in those fields if possible

DNK
Sep 18, 2004

So you want to invest in assets that you don’t understand but only if they fall within your area of expertise?

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Ubiquitus posted:

Has anyone dabbled in alternative asset funds? I’d like to try to diversify that way, are there any open to the general public? Looking to dip my toes, but I have no idea where to start.

I know some stuff about medicine and a lot about computers, and very rudimentary knowledge about everything else, so I’d like to stay in those fields if possible

In my experience, they are either smallish/sort of shady (like masterworks for fine art), or only open to accredited investors with pretty large minimums (and still sort of shady). Lots of money for the guys running the funds of course.

Angel investments in biotech and/or comp-sci are uhhhh... not going well right now.

I'm always interested in all sorts of diversification, but its definitely hard to get without losing money.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013


other exchanges have internal hedge funds like NYSE.

cirus
Apr 5, 2011

shame on an IGA posted:

this amazing tweet thread will definitely not be submitted as evidence in the future it's like we're in the room watching Ross Ulbricht write mycrimes.txt right in front of us

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590709174572572675

Bank/securities fraud: the thread has got to be a contender for all-time Twitter greats

Ubiquitus
Nov 20, 2011

DNK posted:

So you want to invest in assets that you don’t understand but only if they fall within your area of expertise?

Just looking to see if anyone has experience in these areas they can share. I don’t have a good outlook for the near term, and I already put some money in bonds - so I’d like to diversify more into other asset classes

Ubiquitus
Nov 20, 2011

Baddog posted:

In my experience, they are either smallish/sort of shady (like masterworks for fine art), or only open to accredited investors with pretty large minimums (and still sort of shady). Lots of money for the guys running the funds of course.

Angel investments in biotech and/or comp-sci are uhhhh... not going well right now.

I'm always interested in all sorts of diversification, but its definitely hard to get without losing money.

That’s helpful, thanks

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Ubiquitus posted:

Has anyone dabbled in alternative asset funds? I’d like to try to diversify that way, are there any open to the general public? Looking to dip my toes, but I have no idea where to start.

I know some stuff about medicine and a lot about computers, and very rudimentary knowledge about everything else, so I’d like to stay in those fields if possible

Alternative asset funds like anything that isn't equities, bonds and real estate? Or are you referring to something specific here?

Mortgage Investment Companies are a sort of alternative asset that I find a bit interesting. Whenever I google this I only get hits associated with Canadian companies but surely the concept must exist in the United States and other jurisdictions, perhaps under a different name?

Effectively they're sub-prime lenders and.. oh I see you're heading to the exit, no please, please come back.

Sub-prime has a bad reputation thanks to uhhh the global financial crisis, but the bread and butter of MICs isn't (or at least shouldn't be) mortgages to over extended homeowners that should never own a home in the first place, but rather the more reasonable and boring area of construction loans and short term bridge loans. Another area (maybe a bit riskier) is loans to new immigrants that may have heaps of money, but little to no financial history and whom the big inflexible banks would instantly dismiss. Effectively MICs offer very short term loans (ie. less than a year) to people and businesses in odd situations to bridge them to getting a normal loan from a bank. For this service they charge a fee and a high premium interest rate (eg. in the era of 3% interest rates they were charging 9%+).

The upside to investors here is that with this added risk comes added returns, and MICs will often yield 7-8% and even more.

The downside is that you often have to contribute a significant amount to get your foot in the door, and while there's good MICs that have been operating for decades every once and a while you read about some sketchy one that completely blows up and shuts down, taking everyones' money with it. Some due diligence required.

Also given the fact that the entire thing is based around real estate investment, there's the general fear around what happens if housing implodes. Best case scenario your 7% return dips severely. Worst case the MIC collapses?

pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Femtosecond posted:

Alternative asset funds like anything that isn't equities, bonds and real estate? Or are you referring to something specific here?

Mortgage Investment Companies are a sort of alternative asset that I find a bit interesting. Whenever I google this I only get hits associated with Canadian companies but surely the concept must exist in the United States and other jurisdictions, perhaps under a different name?

Effectively they're sub-prime lenders and.. oh I see you're heading to the exit, no please, please come back.

Sub-prime has a bad reputation thanks to uhhh the global financial crisis, but the bread and butter of MICs isn't (or at least shouldn't be) mortgages to over extended homeowners that should never own a home in the first place, but rather the more reasonable and boring area of construction loans and short term bridge loans. Another area (maybe a bit riskier) is loans to new immigrants that may have heaps of money, but little to no financial history and whom the big inflexible banks would instantly dismiss. Effectively MICs offer very short term loans (ie. less than a year) to people and businesses in odd situations to bridge them to getting a normal loan from a bank. For this service they charge a fee and a high premium interest rate (eg. in the era of 3% interest rates they were charging 9%+).

The upside to investors here is that with this added risk comes added returns, and MICs will often yield 7-8% and even more.

The downside is that you often have to contribute a significant amount to get your foot in the door, and while there's good MICs that have been operating for decades every once and a while you read about some sketchy one that completely blows up and shuts down, taking everyones' money with it. Some due diligence required.

Also given the fact that the entire thing is based around real estate investment, there's the general fear around what happens if housing implodes. Best case scenario your 7% return dips severely. Worst case the MIC collapses?

Do they provide information about their margins and how many loans have to default before they, you know, collapse?

A bit of googling at least heavily implies the existence of MICs in Canada is in part due to a special tax status, and that REITs in the US target much the same niche but do not have the favorable tax treatment that may make MICs more attractive to people who bank in Loonies.

Honestly, sub-prime lending is probably an area you can get some Alpha out of because it's irrationally toxic to investors due to 2008.

orange sky
May 7, 2007

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1590949038186467328?s=20&t=S8M0LzvyncJRORQHBajS9Q

market will probably rip again today

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Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Market is absolutely going to rip it's goddamn face off, holy poo poo

:tviv:

Gonna buy puts as near the top as I can find

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