|
Samuel Clemens posted:What a strange sentiment, considering this is the third election in a row where women save the country from itself. I am a woman and I vote I was making a joke about the torturously misapplied feminism of the woman described. She wanted Trump to win so that Clinton wouldn't be both the first woman president and the first woman president to be impeached. Pretty sure the opposition make rumblings about impeaching every president, especially Democrat presidents.
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 19:14 |
|
|
I heard that Podesta is a devil witch, is that true? Will that hurt us in the polls?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:41
|
|
|
So did anything come out of that "FBI FINDS NEW EMAILS RELATED TO HILLARY'S TENURE AS SECSTATE" thing from yesterday? CBS News (and only CBS) had a huge front page story about it but then it just kind of disappeared.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:41
|
|
|
Petr posted:I heard that Podesta is a devil witch, is that true? Will that hurt us in the polls? He'll use his magic to guarantee victory for Clinton.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:42
|
|
|
Donkwich posted:No. Can't wait for the passage of Amendment 34, the removal of men's suffrage
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:42
|
|
|
Bhaal posted:I've noticed this category of people on the left--I'm not sure what to call them, maybe alt-accelerationist or something--that reference "poisoning the well" as their reason for doing things like not voting for hillary or wishing the ACA didn't pass. They see these things as compromised progressivism that will do more to block actual progress than if they hadn't happened at all. This is where politics as a sport gets me fired up. I will be better off if Hillary wins although probably not drastically so (with the exception of Trump could literally start a nuclear war). I would say voting D for me is 90% because people more disadvantaged than me all deserve better than what this country offers now. The other 10% is because gently caress Republicans, gently caress all Republicans, I want to burn them down, piss out the fire, and salt the earth with their figurative ashes. Whenever I'm feeling down about the lack of progress voting for Democrats has brought, I remember how delicious Republican tears are.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:43
|
|
|
ReV VAdAUL posted:He'll use his magic to guarantee victory for Clinton. Can he use his magic to guarantee a 50 state sweep for her just for our entertainment? 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:42
|
|
|
Petr posted:I heard that Podesta is a devil witch, is that true? Will that hurt us in the polls? Fox news reports that democrats are all godless communists so this actually helps us.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:43
|
|
|
Bhaal posted:I've noticed this category of people on the left--I'm not sure what to call them, maybe alt-accelerationist or something--that reference "poisoning the well" as their reason for doing things like not voting for hillary or wishing the ACA didn't pass. They see these things as compromised progressivism that will do more to block actual progress than if they hadn't happened at all. That feels suspiciously similar to those arguments saying that Gay Marriage Legalization was a secret conservative victory, because now there was nothing keeping gay men from voting Republican now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:43
|
|
|
Eugene V. Dabs posted:Can't wait for the passage of Amendment 34, the removal of men's suffrage Unironically
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:44
|
|
|
Okay, so I just got caught up on this thread today and it's absolute bullshit that gfsincere got probed for "posting about posting". Like seriously there were multiple pages of lots of people posting about posting last night, and somehow very mysteriously the only person to get probated from all of it was a black poster. Exmarx shouldn't be a mod anymore, and either TB or KM (or both) should take their place.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:44
|
|
|
It's Nates own fault that his model is so temperamental when he happily includes bullshit polls from people like Remington which knowingly don't act in good faith so as to gently caress everything up. He believes that all data is useful data but that seems really naive.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:44
|
|
|
RVProfootballer posted:Prove it. Well, RCP final average was O+7.6 in 2008, final result was O+7.2. Poll average in 2012 was O+0.7, actual was O+3.9. In 2004 the average poll was B+1.5, actual was B+2.4. Those are differences of 0.4, 3.2, and 0.9. So aggregate polling error of a couple points is entirely plausible. Not likely, mind you, but significantly possible, especially when you consider the unique unlikeability of both candidates this year, etc. You're welcome to do your own math if you want to prove that aggregate error greater than a couple points is a mere once-in-20 possibility.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:45
|
|
|
VikingofRock posted:Okay, so I just got caught up on this thread today and it's absolute bullshit that gfsincere got probed for "posting about posting". Like seriously there were multiple pages of lots of people posting about posting last night, and somehow very mysteriously the only person to get probated from all of it was a black poster. Exmarx shouldn't be a mod anymore, and either TB or KM (or both) should take their place. You should take this to QCS, lest you get probated too.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:45
|
|
|
Neo_Crimson posted:That feels suspiciously similar to those arguments saying that Gay Marriage Legalization was a secret conservative victory, because now there was nothing keeping gay men from voting Republican now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:45
|
|
|
BarbarianElephant posted:I am a woman and I vote I'm sorry, then. This election has destroyed my ability to tell whether someone is serious or not.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:46
|
|
|
Shimrra Jamaane posted:It's Nates own fault that his model is so temperamental when he happily includes bullshit polls from people like Remington which knowingly don't act in good faith so as to gently caress everything up. I wonder where the bar is set in terms of getting included in the 538 aggregate. Can I just make a fake twitter account and post bogus polling numbers?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:46
|
|
|
WampaLord posted:It's weird growing up Jewish, because you learn about a lot of this stuff and your mind is pretty firmly set as "Jews are the underdogs" and then you grow up and realize plucky li'l Israel is doing some terrible poo poo too and now you don't know how to feel. That's because the lesson you were taught was "Jews are the underdogs" rather than the far more accurate "minorities are the underdogs", or the even more accurate "any group culturally distinct from the group in power are the underdogs". For example, European Jews have a lot of shared experiences (including the Holocaust) with the Roma, another widespread European minority that has historically retained its separate cultural identity. Ice Phisherman posted:What was the reasoning? Because I researched it pretty hard, expecting to be able to cite it as proof of Israeli hypocrisy and racism, and ended up writing a fairly thorough debunking for it instead. A lot of the "evidence" commonly cited for it is taken out of context or misunderstood because of a failure to understand the roles of the multiple organizations and entities involved. To be clear, we know absolutely for sure that some Ethiopian Jews got Depo prescriptions without their informed consent, and that Israeli doctors were administering those presciptions without ensuring that the patients understood what they were getting. Those are verified, undisputable facts. However, there's no real support for the assertion that there was a deliberate Israeli policy to that effect. For one thing, the organization issuing those prescriptions and running the transit camps was a real charitable NGO whose health wing was run by an aid worker with a solid reputation and a long history of helping Ethiopians, and was not under the control of the Israeli government. Israel simply did not have the ability to order the NGO to set up a eugenics program on the side, and like I said, the aid organization's leadership has a solid enough reputation that I have a very hard time believing they would willingly cooperate with a forced sterilization program. My best guess is that the initial prescriptions were a pattern of individual misconduct, mistakes, and apathy, coupled with a number of administrative failings that failed to recognize the problem over a prolonged period of time. There are some question marks surrounding the NGO, but like I said, I have a very hard time believing that the man in charge would run a eugenics program. The continuation of the prescriptions once the victims entered Israel was simply the fault of an inadequate support system - limited availability of interpreters meant that it was difficult for Israeli doctors to communicate with their patients, and many simply didn't bother, carrying out whatever was written in their medical records without bothering to ascertain that the patients knew what was being done.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:47
|
|
|
Shimrra Jamaane posted:It's Nates own fault that his model is so temperamental when he happily includes bullshit polls from people like Remington which knowingly don't act in good faith so as to gently caress everything up. He believes that all data is useful data but that seems really naive. Nah, you gotta discard some data if it's so much of an outlier that it fucks up your model. I mean, if your model accounts for it then it's good data, but if it's throwing poo poo off because it's too much of an outlier then you need to chuck it or revise your model.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:47
|
|
|
funkymonks posted:I wonder where the bar is set in terms of getting included in the 538 aggregate. Can I just make a fake twitter account and post bogus polling numbers? No, but if you set up a bogus polling firm and start pushing really bad polls, you have a chance.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:47
|
|
|
funkymonks posted:This is where politics as a sport gets me fired up. I will be better off if Hillary wins although probably not drastically so (with the exception of Trump could literally start a nuclear war). I don't think Trump is likely to start a nuclear war, but I do think he's certain to crash the economy. He does business by starting a lot of companies, driving most of them into the ground while making a personal profit, then selling off the remains. How that would look like with a nation, I shudder to think.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:48
|
|
|
ReV VAdAUL posted:He'll use his magic to guarantee victory for Clinton. I dunno guys, I'm pretty open-minded but I'm not sure about electing an actual Satanist. Might vote trump. It's not like my vote matters anyway, I live in North Carolina.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:48
|
|
|
Petr posted:I dunno guys, I'm pretty open-minded but I'm not sure about electing an actual Satanist. Might vote trump. It's not like my vote matters anyway, I live in North Carolina.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:49
|
|
|
BarbarianElephant posted:I don't think Trump is likely to start a nuclear war, but I do think he's certain to crash the economy. He does business by starting a lot of companies, driving most of them into the ground while making a personal profit, then selling off the remains. How that would look like with a nation, I shudder to think. http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/01/arizona-wants-buy-back-state-capitol-it-inexplicably-sold quote:State governments have taken a number of different steps to balance their books in recent years. Texas Gov. Rick Perry (remember him?) proposed a new tax on strip clubs, for example, and a Utah state rep. suggested saving $60 million per year by abolishing the 12th grade. But no proposal struck as much metaphorical gold as Arizona's decision to sell off the state capitol (and a whole bunch of other state properties, such as maximum security prisons) for $735 million in 2009. Republican Gov. Jan Brewer signed off on the deal, and the state now leases the House and Senate chambers from a private real estate company at a considerable long-term cost. Republicans be stupid
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:49
|
|
|
Eugene V. Dabs posted:You should take this to QCS, lest you get probated too. Fair enough. If one of the black posters in this thread wants to make the QCS thread, they should go for it, but otherwise I'll make one.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:50
|
|
|
Chelsea Manning apparently tried to kill herself again after she was sentenced to solitary confinement for a previous suicide attempt in jail. I hate to say it but I highly doubt she serves her sentence. The whole thing is depressing as hell.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:50
|
|
|
Neo_Crimson posted:That feels suspiciously similar to those arguments saying that Gay Marriage Legalization was a secret conservative victory, because now there was nothing keeping gay men from voting Republican now. Gay marriage was not a wholly liberal issue, because rich and powerful people can also be gay and have gay friends and family. There were some gay conservative groups pushing for gay marriage. Of course, in 20 years time, it'll be all the noble conservatives pushing through gay marriage against the vehement protestations of the bigoted liberals (who came up with Don't ask, Don't tell!)
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:51
|
|
|
Speaking of how great Ohio is, have this. I'm fairly certain that you are not supposed to wear stuff like this as part of your cop uniform.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:51
|
|
|
BarbarianElephant posted:I don't think Trump is likely to start a nuclear war, but I do think he's certain to crash the economy. He does business by starting a lot of companies, driving most of them into the ground while making a personal profit, then selling off the remains. How that would look like with a nation, I shudder to think. The most common argument I hear from Trump supporters in life is "he'll run the company like a business, and that's what we need" which just drives me up the wall because, in this analogy, the American people are employees, and what's good for a business is very often not good for its employees.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:51
|
|
|
Mazed posted:I have a friend who's not only put nine million hours into Skyrim, but almost always goes Stormcloak, and for this reason I'd been suspecting she was a secret Trump supporter. But, she's been clicking like on my angry facebook posts about him so maybe it's not true...or perhaps she suspects I suspect. This is from like 20 pages ago but ive never heard anything more goony in my life than dubbing someone a trump supporter based on her gameplay choices in an elder scrolls game, and judging her silently on facebook. Go outside, the graphics are amazing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:52
|
|
|
Nessus posted:Look man, get on board with the Devil. With no God, and no Bible, what's to keep you from becoming a god? Vote Clinton 2016. John Podesta is a witch, and Clinton is black phillip
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
Pakled posted:The most common argument I hear from Trump supporters in life is "he'll run the company like a business, and that's what we need" which just drives me up the wall because, in this analogy, the American people are employees, and what's good for a business is very often not good for its employees. Muslims: You're fired
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
Eugene V. Dabs posted:John Podesta is a witch, and Clinton is black phillip Good movie imo
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
TheOneAndOnlyT posted:So did anything come out of that "FBI FINDS NEW EMAILS RELATED TO HILLARY'S TENURE AS SECSTATE" thing from yesterday? CBS News (and only CBS) had a huge front page story about it but then it just kind of disappeared. Yes, some truly devastating stuff. https://twitter.com/nxthompson/status/794642496634703876 (This is actually from a separate release by the Dept of State, the FBI hasn't officially released anything yet about the emails it found.) DaveWoo fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Nov 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
Petr posted:I dunno guys, I'm pretty open-minded but I'm not sure about electing an actual Satanist. Might vote trump. It's not like my vote matters anyway, I live in North Carolina. Welp Podesta's gonna use his devil magic to summon a scorpion into your throat now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:54
|
|
|
BarbarianElephant posted:Muslims: You're fired In an oven. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:55
|
|
|
theflyingorc posted:Among people who are NOT registered to either party, FORTY TWO percent of those who are voting for the first time? Minorities. Hundreds of thousands of minorities. This is good for the future, because when you vote it becomes easier to vote again, and with greater participation comes a greater chance of not watching our Type I Civilization end.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:54
|
|
|
The absolute dumbest and infuriating thing about "Trump running the country like a business" is that his supporters are simply not motivated by economic issues. Survey after survey after survey of Trump supporters show they don't really care about the economy. What they are actually calling for is a "CEO" to basically rule by decree as a CEO might rule his business. They want him to just put out lots of executive actions shutting poo poo down they don't like, particularly if it took many years to come to it's current state (such as equal marriage).
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:55
|
|
|
MattD1zzl3 posted:This is from like 20 pages ago but ive never heard anything more goony in my life than dubbing someone a trump supporter based on her gameplay choices in an elder scrolls game, and judging her silently on facebook. Go outside, the graphics are amazing. gently caress off out of here, racist, you are not welcome. Also, I have created a thread about the moderation issue in D&D in QCS - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3796594 I expect to be poo poo on, so please help by adding your own experiences.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 19:14 |
|
|
PerniciousKnid posted:Well, RCP final average was O+7.6 in 2008, final result was O+7.2. Poll average in 2012 was O+0.7, actual was O+3.9. In 2004 the average poll was B+1.5, actual was B+2.4. Those are differences of 0.4, 3.2, and 0.9. So aggregate polling error of a couple points is entirely plausible. Not likely, mind you, but significantly possible, especially when you consider the unique unlikeability of both candidates this year, etc. You are conflating polling errors and win probability errors. They are not the same thing, as I tried to explain to you earlier. Edit: This is actually several points rolled together, though. As a very simple exercise, assume deep south goes +5 for Trump beyond polling. Does Hillary's win probability drop? Beyond that dumb toy example that shows how national margin is not the same as win probability, if Hillary is up 3 points in national polls and polls are off by 2 points, she still wins. Polling errors are also not likely to be truly randomly distributed; in none of your examples did polling errors flip the winner. sourdough fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Nov 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2016 21:56
|
|
