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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Every time I read about "getting into the market" is makes my blood boil. They're pushing these as ways for people to "get into the market" as in start building equity so they can get a place that isn't lovely. Idiots will go and buy these thinking it's just something they have to endure under they can move up to the next rung on the property ladder. I mean once you start up that ladder the only direction to go is up, the only thing stopping everyone owning a big ol' house is that it's just too hard to "get into the market". They should build a 50 story tower that's just full of thousands of 4x4' closets that people can technically own so they can "get into the market".

gently caress realtors, gently caress condo marketing.

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Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
For $100,000 I could buy a bitchin' 40 foot yacht, and park it in a swanky marina in False Creek for what the condo and misc. fees would be on that rats nest in surrey.

I wonder which is more likely to impress the ladies. :smuggo:

etalian
Mar 20, 2006


liquidity trap here we come

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
I'm going to start selling "starter" mutual funds and ETFs as a way for people to "get into" the market and build equity before moving on to their grown-up funds. They will be small, worthless, volatile funds but hey they're cheap!

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Remember best time to buy something like real estate or stock, is when the price is going up up up!

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Baronjutter posted:

I'd love a consumer market where marketing is illegal and every single product is objectively reviewed/rated/quantified by some sort of god-ai and said stats/ratings are the only things that can appear on packaging and listings. Without being able to fall back on meaningless bullshit buzzwords or pseudoscience so many products would absolute not exist. Hell it would make real-estate a lot better too.

I have less stringent demands. I just wish that every real estate ad whether sale or rental had to list the total living area at least, and preferably an accurate floor plan with decent pictures of each room. This would take very little effort for landlords and be a huge bonus for rental searches. I wouldnt have had to waste time seeing some dank Waterloo basement apartment where the landlord forgot to mention that the ceilings go as low as 6' (is that even legal??).

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Saltin posted:

In a thread where pretty much everyone agrees that renting is better than owning, it's pretty funny to see people laughing at hot water tank rentals. Who the gently caress wants to own a hot water tank. You need to own them forever in order for it to be better than renting.

Leasing cars is the better analogy here.

Sassafras
Dec 24, 2004

by Athanatos
.

Sassafras fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Jan 28, 2015

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

eXXon posted:

I have less stringent demands. I just wish that every real estate ad whether sale or rental had to list the total living area at least, and preferably an accurate floor plan with decent pictures of each room. This would take very little effort for landlords and be a huge bonus for rental searches. I wouldnt have had to waste time seeing some dank Waterloo basement apartment where the landlord forgot to mention that the ceilings go as low as 6' (is that even legal??).

Back when I was an idiot and condo shopping I was driven absolutely crazy how realtors would never put the floor plans on their listing. It would be some pictures, but nothing that actually showed the layout or size of things. Every single time I'd email them and they'd say they have plans that they could print out and bring to me when we meet when would a good time be to meet this is a very hot property so we should meet soon. Or some would outright say "I don't give out floor plans until people have seen the property, people sometimes get the wrong impression off floor plans and they can be confusing" or "in my experience people don't know how to read or visualize off floor plans so I don't include them in the listing"

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Jan 27, 2015

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Saltin posted:

In a thread where pretty much everyone agrees that renting is better than owning, it's pretty funny to see people laughing at hot water tank rentals. Who the gently caress wants to own a hot water tank. You need to own them forever in order for it to be better than renting.

This isn't quite right, IMO. It's a truism that if you have the capital, it's generally better to own vs rent. It's only an exception in housing right now because the ownership option has been undergoing a speculative mania for a while. There's no analogue with vehicle or hot water tank rentals - no one's speculating in either of those.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Let's start a goon project to massively profit from the bubble bursting.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

unlimited shrimp posted:

Let's start a goon project to massively profit from the bubble bursting.

Just short some canadian REITs.

Reince Penis
Nov 15, 2007

by R. Guyovich
Let's start a goon project to inflate a hot water tank bubble. We'll all get rich!

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

etalian posted:

Just short some canadian REITs.

Don't do this unless you find the REIT that invested heavily in Vancouver single family homes. Most of them are rental apartments, industrial and commercial which likely will be on different cycle.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

ocrumsprug posted:

Don't do this unless you find the REIT that invested heavily in Vancouver single family homes. Most of them are rental apartments, industrial and commercial which likely will be on different cycle.

You could target home building companies that are overexposed to the Alberta side of the bubble.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

triplexpac posted:

Since I've gotten married I've been having nightmares of us having to move out to the suburbs to buy a house, and having to drive into the city every day.

I would legitimately kill myself before moving to the burbs.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I would legitimately kill myself before moving to the burbs.

lol

http://www.680news.com/2014/04/29/toronto-facing-longest-commute-times-in-ontario-report/

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

Rime posted:

For $100,000 I could buy a bitchin' 40 foot yacht, and park it in a swanky marina in False Creek for what the condo and misc. fees would be on that rats nest in surrey.

I wonder which is more likely to impress the ladies. :smuggo:

Doesn't BC still control who can live on the water pretty harshly? Otherwise its a great idea.

*edit*

It seems you can buy a 3 bedroom float house in Vancouver itself for like 400k, everyone in BC is stupid

sbaldrick fucked around with this message at 04:54 on Jan 27, 2015

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Wouldn't be easier to just build houses out of real estate and banker skeletons in the aftermath?

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
I used to bike five minutes to work, my new job is about 70 minutes on the GO train from Hamilton to downtown Toronto :(

Barudak
May 7, 2007

etalian posted:

Wouldn't be easier to just build houses out of real estate and banker skeletons in the aftermath?

Then you'll just have a bubble on real-estate and banker bone houses since its not like they'll ever build more of them so the price can only go up, up, up.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

sbaldrick posted:

Doesn't BC still control who can live on the water pretty harshly? Otherwise its a great idea.

*edit*

It seems you can buy a 3 bedroom float house in Vancouver itself for like 400k, everyone in BC is stupid

If you are asian just break in and live in some rich chinese guy's empty downtown condo.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

unlimited shrimp posted:

Let's start a goon project to massively profit from the bubble bursting.

Can I just call all hedge funds "goon projects" from now on?

ianmacdo
Oct 30, 2012

THC posted:

I've seen time lapse videos of a Toronto car commute and like, god drat how do these people go on living?

Direct Energy is a scam where they offer you a fixed rate on your hydro or gas that just happens to be a few points above the mean of the rates you'll get if you just pay the power or gas company directly. They claim that those regular rates are very fluctuant, and that's a real problem when you're on a pension or other fixed income and barely break even each month because of whatever you spend all your money on. So why not pay a fixed rate to a middle man at a small premium which is commonly pitched by slimy door-to-door sales dicks and cold callers.

Also, if the energy rates do go up, then the middleman company just declares bankruptcy, screwing the seniors even more.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...l#ixzz3PzEOWVoA

quote:


VANCOUVER — Continuing low interest rates and a healthy stream of newcomers will ensure the good times keep rolling in 2015 for the Lower Mainland’s property development industry. But it also means pricing will continue to pose a challenge.

Three of B.C.’s biggest developers used adjectives like “great” and “incredibly positive” as they delivered a forecast last week to more than 1,100 industry insiders and politicians attending an Urban Development Institute luncheon.

“Vancouver is going to do well, everyone wants to be here,” declared David Negrin, president of Aquilini Development.

He said a recent crackdown on democracy protesters in Hong Kong is likely to enhance Vancouver’s prospects. “We’re very positive on Vancouver, and it’s going to continue for some time.”

Added Neil Chrystal, CEO of Polygon Homes: “We’re picturesque, have a healthy environment, we’re a clean, safe city offering excellent health care and educational opportunities. We are politically stable and close to Asia.

“I see no sign of the residential market slowing down. ... The market will remain balanced and stable in the year ahead.”


B.C. will experience net immigration in 2015 of some 34,600 immigrants and 2,600 provincial migrants, according to research by Mac Marketing Solutions, a company that plans and markets housing projects.

Mac, with offices in Vancouver and Calgary, forecasts that in subsequent years even larger numbers of both immigrants and Canadians will arrive, noting Alberta’s economic slowdown will make heading further west all the more attractive.

So, while a total of 37,200 newcomers are expected this year, the number should grow to 53,200 by 2018.

Combine that trend with low interest rates and a low vacancy rate in the region, and you have a recipe for continuing strong growth in the property development and real estate sectors. Unfortunately, that does not augur well for affordability.

Between 2006 and 2014, benchmark prices for all types of real estate in Metro Vancouver saw significant price jumps, according to Mac research, with the greatest increase — 46 per cent — recorded in Vancouver’s east side. West Vancouver and Vancouver’s west side both saw increases of 41 per cent.

Referencing the retail sector, Kevin Layden, CEO of Wesbild, said North American stores are downsizing as they move online. But even here, Vancouver is well positioned, never having enthusiastically adopted a big-box retail model.

The city has 13 square feet of retail space per capita, compared to a Canadian per capita rate of 19 square feet and the U.S.’s 30 square feet.

Commenting on Vancouver’s affordability crisis, Negrin cited the high cost of land and remarked: “Everyone is frustrated.” The only way to keep prices down is to increase density, he said.

Yet a Demographia study released last week on housing affordability argues density and urban land containment boost housing prices by restricting development of cheaper perimeter lands.

Chrystal argued development is being constrained by an overly complex and time-consuming municipal approval process. At UBC, he reported, the development approval process takes six months, compared to 12 to 30 months elsewhere in the region.

Added Negrin: “We have to find a way to streamline the process. Anything over one year is too long.”

Chrystal pointed to another challenge for Lower Mainland developers — offshore buyers are starting to purchase land for development that he said could lead to oversupply in certain markets.

They are also posing a challenge in terms of what they are prepared to pay for land acquisitions. “They may be parking money from offshore. We can’t compete on price.”

The developers complained of increasing costs for building materials and a stronger U.S. dollar, forcing higher costs. Prices for drywall, windows and steel were cited.


ERRYBODY WANNA BE ERE

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

It owns how cheaper credit basically provides even more incentive for people to live beyond their means by buying a too high priced house.

it's basically a horrible feedback loop

also ftw:

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




etalian posted:

also ftw:


To be fair, you could replace "Vancouver" with almost any other Canadian city right now and still get the same result. :v:

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

“Vancouver is going to do well, everyone wants to be here,” declared David Negrin, president of Aquilini Development.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
lol

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26/ubs-says-asia-s-rich-show-less-love-for-aussie-australia-credit.html


quote:

Asia’s wealthy are falling out of love with the Aussie dollar as record-low yields and sustained declines persuade them to look elsewhere, according to UBS Group AG. (UBSG)

Many of the bank’s wealthiest clients in the region began to abandon the currency as Australia’s bond yield premium over the U.S. slid and the Federal Reserve discussed raising interest rates, said Simon Smiles, Zurich-based chief investment officer for ultra-high-net-worth individuals. The 10-year yield is 74 basis points above that of the U.S., down from 130 a year ago.

“Two years ago when I came to the region, in most client meetings, people were asking about Aussie assets, the Australian dollar, yield play; when you talk about it now, there’s almost no interest,” Smiles said in an interview on Monday. “From the third quarter of last year, there’s a growing belief that the U.S. dollar would start a sustained appreciation trend.”

The Aussie has tumbled 16 percent in the past six months to the weakest level since 2009 and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has said he expects it to extend declines. The local dollar has fallen less than the euro and the currencies of Denmark, Canada and Norway this year and “should be the next domino to fall,” said Olivier Korber, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

A$ depreciation can only mean Australian House prices to the moon!

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

60 minutes, each way, on average. I can't imagine how that could be preferable to the sweet release of death.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

60 minutes, each way, on average. I can't imagine how that could be preferable to the sweet release of death.

I'm curious if that's a function of distance or traffic. That being said it seems like there's a balance between size of city and length of commute.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

ocrumsprug posted:

Don't do this unless you find the REIT that invested heavily in Vancouver single family homes. Most of them are rental apartments, industrial and commercial which likely will be on different cycle.

The vast majority of REITs are equity REITs, which own the assets. Of the small handful of Mortgage type REIT's, I am unsure any of them actually hold individual private mortgages. It would be interesting if there was such a thing, so if anyone can find one, please post it.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

etalian posted:

You could target home building companies that are overexposed to the Alberta side of the bubble.

Still pretty risky as timing would be difficult. I thought some of the smaller mortgage providers would have been short targets already, but luckily I didn't place that bet as I would have had some pretty significant losses.

I instead chose to "short" Canada and moved all my investments to USD denominated US and international markets. Even if the US market wasn't doing well, I would be pretty happy with just the gains on the exchange rate.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

computer parts posted:

I'm curious if that's a function of distance or traffic. That being said it seems like there's a balance between size of city and length of commute.

Yeah put me down as "kill self" if I ever had to move to the burbs to commute longer than 15-30 min. My poor wife has an hour+ commute though. I always joke we should just buy a house in Langford so she's closer to work and she doesn't drive. I could enjoy a 60 min 10km commute every day! I could start bitching endlessly that the government needs to expand all the highways because traffic is so bad, but also be violently opposed to any sort of urban containment boundaries or ALR's and call transit "wasteful social engineering". Man I could start a blog about how we could solve the "housing problem" by just "Letting developers build what the market wants".


\/\/\/
CI, I am all ready all over that blog.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Jan 27, 2015

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Or you could just read strong towns blog

http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Jan 27, 2015

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rbc-is-first-to-cut-mortgage-rates-as-bond-yields-plunge/article22639128/

quote:


Canada’s major banks are heading into a renewed mortgage price war in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s surprise decision to cut interest rates.

Mortgage brokers reported that Royal Bank of Canada dropped its five-year fixed rate for qualified borrowers to 2.84 per cent over the weekend. While smaller, non-bank lenders have started offering even cheaper rates, RBC's rate cut is likely a record for a major bank, said Drew Donaldson, executive vice-president of Safebridge Financial Group. The bank also slashed its posted 10-year fixed rate to 3.84 per cent, the lowest nationally advertised rate in the country, said Robert McLister, founder of Ratespy.com.

RBC spokesman Wojtek Dabrowski said the bank continues to “review the impact of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision,” and that the company’s “individual product lines continue to make pricing adjustments in the regular course of business to ensure we provide competitive rates in the marketplace.”

Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada have also cut fixed rates on broker-originated mortgages by 10 to 20 basis points in recent days.

Mortgage officials said RBC was among the last of the major banks to introduce new rate specials.

“National Bank already offers competitive rates over the mortgage rate spectrum as we moved early over the past weeks,” bank spokesman Claude Breton said.

A battle in the mortgage market seemed inevitable given that Government of Canada bond yields have plummeted in recent weeks, falling 57 basis points in the past month to historic lows. Brokers had predicted that falling bond yields were almost certain to drive down the fixed-rate mortgage pricing ahead of the competitive spring housing market even as banks have largely kept their prime rates, which govern variable-rate mortgages along with other types of loans, unchanged. All the major banks will soon be forced to follow the Bank of Canada and cut their prime rates 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, Mr. Donaldson said. “We expect more cuts to come from all lenders,” he said.

Even ahead of the Bank of Canada’s unexpected rate cut last week, the country’s major banks already seemed poised for a new round of rate cuts this year. Earlier this month, Bank of Montreal chief executive officer Bill Downe told an industry conference the bank was expecting to “again have a fresh offer that is appealing to customers” in the spring. The bank drew the ire of former finance minister Jim Flaherty in 2013 after it dropped its five-year fixed mortgage rate to 2.99 per cent in what Mr. Flaherty called a “race to the bottom.”

The renewed price war is raising concerns that the central bank’s rate cut will add fuel to the country’s overheated housing market even as Canadians struggle under the burden of rising household debt. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal warned last week that falling mortgage rates could lead to “a monstrous spring in the real estate market.”

Others argue that low rates may not be enough to kick start a housing market that had already begun to slow toward the end of this year as oil prices plunged. Even as they predicted that Canada’s central bank will cut interest rates a second time later this year, TD economists said Monday they expect Canada’s real estate market to fare poorly this year as cheap crude and sky-high house prices in major cities are making it difficult for new buyers to afford to jump into the market despite low mortgage rates. “The housing market is … projected to be a drag on growth, with changes in existing home sales and prices, as well as housing starts, forecast to tilt into negative territory,” the bank said.


:laugh:

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

computer parts posted:

I'm curious if that's a function of distance or traffic. That being said it seems like there's a balance between size of city and length of commute.

In Toronto, it's because we get hosed constantly by the rest of the province (and country). Though much of Toronto's provincial tax goes out to build extra schools in Sudbury or where the gently caress ever, they'll be in the cold, cold ground before they allow their tax dollars to fund an upgrade to our literally crumbling infrastructure. Also, we have had an almost comical parade of idiot mayors who refuse to go hat in hand to the provincial parliament and beg for some money for the Ontario's economic engine.

The Don Valley Parkway, which brings people in from the east/northeast has been regularly overcapacity for the last decade and since it's an elevated roadway through a valley, really the only way to fix it is to tear it all out and start over somehow. The Gardiner Expressway and Queen Elizabeth Way, which bring people in from the west isn't much better. But it's just a problem that's big and expensive and steps on NIMBY toes, so no city administration wants to touch it as the situation gets progressively worse. That's just the roads commuters can use, not even Torontonians want to see their taxes raised to support something like public transit (which is nearly non-existent in the suburbs anyway)

Industry has tried to move out of Toronto and have their bases in the suburbs, but Millennials famously don't have or want because commuting in Toronto is a nightmare. Amazon had previously moved their HQ to Mississauga, but are now moving back into the core to attract younger people. Something's gotta give at some point, maybe when it does we'll have someone actually competent in city hall.

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

Cultural Imperial posted:

Or you could just read strong towns blog

http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/

That paradox of gentrification blog post is so good. The blog is so good.

peter banana posted:

The Don Valley Parkway, which brings people in from the east/northeast has been regularly overcapacity for the last decade and since it's an elevated roadway through a valley, really the only way to fix it is to tear it all out and start over somehow. The Gardiner Expressway and Queen Elizabeth Way, which bring people in from the west isn't much better. But it's just a problem that's big and expensive and steps on NIMBY toes, so no city administration wants to touch it as the situation gets progressively worse. That's just the roads commuters can use, not even Torontonians want to see their taxes raised to support something like public transit (which is nearly non-existent in the suburbs anyway)

Industry has tried to move out of Toronto and have their bases in the suburbs, but Millennials famously don't have or want because commuting in Toronto is a nightmare. Amazon had previously moved their HQ to Mississauga, but are now moving back into the core to attract younger people. Something's gotta give at some point, maybe when it does we'll have someone actually competent in city hall.

It`s kind of stunning how many times the relief east-west line has been proposed, planned, but no politician wants to be responsible with pulling the trigger on a project that will be expensive, disruptive, but ultimately take a huge load off of existing subway infrastructure.

I mean someone may come up and tell me what the correct solution to Toronto`s transportation problem, and that`s great, but it`s just been decades of no one doing anything. I know that some proposed solutions could make things worse so it`s best that they haven`t gone ahead, but still.

Dreylad fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jan 27, 2015

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tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

quote:

Though much of Toronto's provincial tax goes out to build extra schools in Sudbury or where the gently caress ever, they'll be in the cold, cold ground before they allow their our tax dollars to fund an upgrade to our literally crumbling infrastructure.

A "gently caress Toronto" platform wins elections.

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