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It's gonna happen
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May 19, 2024 12:00
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Musk did say we were going to Mars but it was like eight years ago and he's done literally nothing since.
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May 19, 2024 16:03
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May 19, 2024 16:05
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Fuckin' Baptists, man.
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May 19, 2024 16:23
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Herman Merman posted:It's gonna happen Will it happen ever, before the heat death of the universe? Maybe, I can't predict that far out. Will it happen in your lifetime, with a pure vision-based or hybrid lidar/vision system? Probably not. Any solution that's going to work in that sense will likely require additional systems and just boil down to being the old tweet about techbros re-inventing the city bus.
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May 19, 2024 16:49
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Laws will be passed making pedestrians and piloted vehicles hit by autonomous cars inescapably at fault for those incidents, and the debts incurred not dischargeable by bankruptcy or death, then the autonomous cars will be hardened against collisions and programmed not to stop in the event of one.
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May 19, 2024 18:04
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:This is important for everyone to know: we will never ever ever ever have self driving robot cars. It is never going to happen ever. You will never get into a car and have it take you to the airport with no other human being involved. It's not gonna happen. If anyone says it's gonna happen, they're lying. "Waymo Autonomous Vehicles Arrive at PHX posted:Phoenix Sky Harbor is on track to be the first airport in the world to offer Waymo rider-only autonomous vehicle service
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May 19, 2024 19:34
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In future they will find a way to fit the autonomous specialist in the frunk.
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May 19, 2024 20:05
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There's a big difference between waymo cars which are ridiculously expensive and only work in very specific locations, and a general purpose autonomous vehicle. The latter is not happening in the foreseeable future.
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May 19, 2024 20:17
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ledge posted:There's a big difference between waymo cars which are ridiculously expensive and only work in very specific locations, and a general purpose autonomous vehicle. Teriyaki Hairpiece: Never, ever, no qualification. Neito: Probably not in our lifetime with a vision or hybrid vision/lidar system. You: Not in the foreseeable future with a general purpose vehicle. Note that I objected to Teriyaki Hairpiece. Especially because they are likely to be wrong with their claim this year. Edit: Oops, actually they are already wrong. Waymo already offers a service (driverless without specialist) to the airport. The new service that started is directly to the terminal, while the old service was to two of the airport sky train stations. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:34 on May 19, 2024 |
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May 19, 2024 20:28
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LonsomeSon posted:Laws will be passed making pedestrians and piloted I can't tell if you're doing a bit but this is completely absurd on every possible level. Nobody at all at any point in the decision making process except Elon Musk is incentivized to do this. Hell, that's not even entirely how it works with trains (even ignoring the extremely silly non-dischargeable clause), and with those it's not physically feasible to stop for an obstruction. DTurtle posted:You are really certain about something that you are going to be wrong about very soon: More-or-less-fully-automated cargo trucks are already a thing in some places. The testing has gotten to a point where they're monitored from a separate vehicle that can order the truck to pull over (and has a somewhat more dangerous emergency stop command iirc), and the company I'm familiar with hasn't had to order a stop for A While. It's getting there. Currently restricted to a particular lengthy stretch of highway(s) and the facilities at either end, but frankly their operation at the last mile and in the facilities might be more impressive than the highway drive. Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 19, 2024 |
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May 19, 2024 20:35
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Goatse James Bond posted:I can't tell if you're doing a bit but this is completely absurd on every possible level. it’s not a bit, i am posting from eight months in your future
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May 19, 2024 21:01
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LonsomeSon posted:Laws will be passed making pedestrians and piloted
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May 19, 2024 21:53
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DTurtle posted:Well but now the goalposts have been moved several times (admittedly by different people): This isn't moving the goalposts, I simply assumed that you would understand I'm referring to "self driving robot car" in the classical popular imagination way. I also don't believe there's ever going to be flying cars ever ever ever ever. And when I'm saying "flying car" I'm referring to the popular idea of the flying car, such as in the Star Wars prequels. Not some extremely technical and specific machine that someone calls a flying car.
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May 19, 2024 22:00
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:This just sounds like an automatic tram, but with cars. Those exist. I said never ever ever is there going to be a self driving robot car, and I meant that generalized term in the ways it's usually assumed to mean: a car that drives you anywhere you tell it to, at any time, in any conditions, in the same way you can drive a car anywhere. Level 5 autonomy. quote:You will never get into a car and have it take you to the airport with no other human being involved. It's not gonna happen. If anyone says it's gonna happen, they're lying. That is NOT an automatic tram riding on rails. Here, you can even have a video of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbL0gcsEbAs DTurtle fucked around with this message at 22:12 on May 19, 2024 |
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May 19, 2024 22:10
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everyone but turtle will get self driving cars just to spite them. jokes on us though when it gets the rest of us all killed because a squirrel ran across the freeway
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May 19, 2024 22:12
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DTurtle posted:Right. Which is why you said:  The future is here!!! (in this specific area)
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May 19, 2024 22:18
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Scholtz posted:The future is here!!! (in this specific area) Heck, I don't expect it to become some general, easy, cheap, every day solution for everyone any time soon. And the massive overhyping and overpromising by the industry a few years ago didn't help. And Elon Musk continuing to do that REALLY doesn't help. However, that doesn't mean that there was no progress at all.
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May 19, 2024 22:22
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Okay, I'm sorry for my imprecision. Level five autonomy, which people keep claiming is right around the corner, will never ever ever ever ever happen. Level five is also known as "full autonomy". Anything below level five always comes with caveats and qualifications and is not what people are referring to when they say "robot car".
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May 19, 2024 22:33
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DTurtle posted:Right. Which is why you said: Note he said "with no other human being involved." I'd say that there has been a massive amount of human involvement in the actual driving. Waymo cars can only operate in specific areas that have been mapped out to the nth degree. They will fail pretty quickly outside those areas. Any changes to those areas (new layouts, road repairs, road closures and so on) need to be added to the mapping or again they will likely fail. I don't think this is moving the goal posts at all.
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May 19, 2024 22:36
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Okay, I'm sorry for my imprecision. Level five autonomy, which people keep claiming is right around the corner, will never ever ever ever ever happen. Level five is also known as "full autonomy". Anything below level five always comes with caveats and qualifications and is not what people are referring to when they say "robot car". E: I'm just a little suspicious of absolute statements involving Never and Always, even if the current conditions absolutely do not allow for the existence of level 5 autonomy, the world is currently full of things that were, at some point, considered 100% impossible due to the conditions of the era. Conditions change though. That is the one thing you can absolutely count on always happening. E2: this is all besides the point because individual self driving cars are a stupid idea to begin with for environmental reasons alone. Just build more trains, Idiots! Svaha fucked around with this message at 22:57 on May 19, 2024 |
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May 19, 2024 22:44
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Okay, I'm sorry for my imprecision. Level five autonomy, which people keep claiming is right around the corner, will never ever ever ever ever happen. Level five is also known as "full autonomy". Anything below level five always comes with caveats and qualifications and is not what people are referring to when they say "robot car". quote:You will never get into a car and have it take you to the airport with no other human being involved. It's not gonna happen. If anyone says it's gonna happen, they're lying. ledge posted:Note he said "with no other human being involved." I'd say that there has been a massive amount of human involvement in the actual driving. Waymo cars can only operate in specific areas that have been mapped out to the nth degree. They will fail pretty quickly outside those areas. Any changes to those areas (new layouts, road repairs, road closures and so on) need to be added to the mapping or again they will likely fail.
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May 19, 2024 22:47
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ledge posted:Note he said "with no other human being involved." I'd say that there has been a massive amount of human involvement in the actual driving. Waymo cars can only operate in specific areas that have been mapped out to the nth degree. They will fail pretty quickly outside those areas. Any changes to those areas (new layouts, road repairs, road closures and so on) need to be added to the mapping or again they will likely fail. This is also 100% true of my own driving. At this point, my personal navigation skills have atrophied so much that if you asked me to drive to a location in a place that has not been already mapped and loaded onto my phone, or if GPS doesn't work, or if there are significant detours or road closures, then I'm just going to get lost and/or panic and potentially injure an innocent construction worker. And that's not even considering the other "human involvement" here like, say, the construction of the roads themselves, the painting of lanes, design and placement of road signs, etc. If you're gonna set your goalposts at the extreme where you aren't even allowing human involvement that concluded fully prior to the trip in question, then you're gonna be disqualifying a whole bunch of lovely human drivers like me. And regardless of if you feel like this is "moving the goalposts" or not, it's just not an interesting constraint. If I'm in an area which is fully mapped and enabled for robot vehicles, then I don't care about the fact that a human was involved in preparing the area in that way. My lived experience in that area would be that robots would drive me around without a supervising human being involved in the individual trips that they are making. Every automated system in the world is human driven if you zoom far enough out in your field of view, and that's just simply not a remarkable observation. If the future of robot vehicles was that locales got rebuilt around a network of tracks that automatous vehicles drive around on with positive safety interlocks to prevent humans or whatever from being able to access dangerous spaces, then I would still consider the end result to be "fully automatous". It doesn't matter if the individual vehicle is fully independent, what matters is the transportation system as a whole - inclusive of transportation spaces, infrastructure, mapping, signage, etc.
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May 19, 2024 23:03
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I guess the point is that this intensive mapping just isn't going to happen for most cities, it's only happened in two so far over 15 years. The economics of Waymo cars, both in the cost of the vehicle and the cost of mapping everything out and keeping it up to date just doesn't work. And I think it is an important/interesting constraint, because it means that unless you happen to be in a certain part of Phoenix, you are not going to get into a car and have it take you to the airport with no other human being involved. Oh and anyway, Waymo cars can and do ask for remote assistance from a human. For example, https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/03/26/waymo-runs-a-red-light-and-the-difference-between-humans-and-robots/?sh=1309db993f34 and from https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/waymo-chief-product-officer-on-progress-competition-vs-cruise.html quote:Most autonomous vehicles have remote operations teams. How does Waymo’s work? How often this happens isn't something that Waymo divulge.
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May 20, 2024 00:00
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Lots of people want robot cars to happen. I want robot cars to happen. But they aren't going to happen. Autonomous breakthroughs are always going on. I think we just recently had a BMW that was available to consumers that can get up to stage three, which is an incredible advance. I'm only saying that people need to understand that stage five is not going to happen in our lifetimes. No matter what the hype is, or dumbass moguls say, it's not around the corner.
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May 20, 2024 01:37
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e: not gonna get into that
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May 20, 2024 01:40
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ledge posted:Note he said "with no other human being involved." I'd say that there has been a massive amount of human involvement in the actual driving. Waymo cars can only operate in specific areas that have been mapped out to the nth degree. They will fail pretty quickly outside those areas. Any changes to those areas (new layouts, road repairs, road closures and so on) need to be added to the mapping or again they will likely fail. I've seen a Waymo react well to an unexpected obstacle. I was looking out my 9th floor window and had noticed a junk truck backed up on to the sidewalk, a couple of guys were throwing furniture in the back. The truck jutted out into the road, across the lane divide. Luckily there was a parking outlet on the other side of the street that drivers could use to get around it. Up comes a Waymo. We're a funky neighborhood with roundels to slow traffic down, so they like testing around here. It pulls up, stops for a moment, and then pulls around the junk truck. I am certain the AI was in control; its movement was much more precise than I'd expect from a human. I'd just seen a dozen humans navigate this challenge as a control group. It may have phoned home and been told to just go around the truck, but it executed the unexpected maneuver very well.
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May 20, 2024 01:51
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:This just sounds like an automatic tram, but with cars. Those exist. I said never ever ever is there going to be a self driving robot car, and I meant that generalized term in the ways it's usually assumed to mean: a car that drives you anywhere you tell it to, at any time, in any conditions, in the same way you can drive a car anywhere. Level 5 autonomy. The way technology is going, we'll probably be able to pop a human brain out of the skull and wire it in to drive a car. Hell, half the internet would probably praise me as a job creator for doing it.
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May 20, 2024 02:05
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Random Axis posted:The way technology is going, we'll probably be able to pop a human brain out of the skull and wire it in to drive a car. Hell, half the internet would probably praise me as a job creator for doing it. So are you on the Neuralink wait-list or..?
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May 20, 2024 02:22
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Idk I'm pretty skeptical of companies claiming they have full self-driving cars when just last year it came out Cruise was having remote operators log in to make a decision every time the "autonomous" car didn't know what to do.
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May 20, 2024 06:15
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if they have low enough ping its fine right?
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May 20, 2024 06:34
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PhazonLink posted:if they have low enough ping its fine right? Self driving cars are just people on sim rigs getting paid to drive people around I mean I'd sign up for it
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May 20, 2024 06:46
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VitalSigns posted:Idk I'm pretty skeptical of companies claiming they have full self-driving cars when just last year it came out Cruise was having remote operators log in to make a decision every time the "autonomous" car didn't know what to do. self driving cars turn out to be like amazon auto checkout stores, its actually multiple overseas workers remoting in to try to keep your car from crashing
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May 20, 2024 06:49
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:This just sounds like an automatic tram, but with cars. quote:I also don't believe there's ever going to be flying cars ever ever ever ever. And when I'm saying "flying car" I'm referring to the popular idea of the flying car, such as in the Star Wars prequels. Not some extremely technical and specific machine that someone calls a flying car. The Artificial Kid fucked around with this message at 15:25 on May 20, 2024 |
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May 20, 2024 15:15
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Staluigi posted:self driving cars turn out to be like amazon auto checkout stores, its actually multiple overseas workers remoting in to try to keep your car from crashing Yeah exactly, there's so much hype and bullshitting by these companies that I just can't not laugh at one saying "oh yeah there's an 'automation specialist' in the car but take our word for it they never have to do anything and will soon be removed". Come on, tell me something I haven't heard before. All these companies conveniently leave out of their marketing material how much human intervention their product requires and it comes out later that it's another mechanical Turk that really runs on sub-minimum wage workers in India not gee-whiz Jetsons AI. I'd have to search the archives for it but I remember one of the bigger threads in here around 2013 or so was goons debating what the mass unemployment of truck drivers that was coming in the next 5 years thanks to self-driving AI would mean for the economy and society, and how we ought to address it so all these suddenly unemployed men and impoverished families don't destabilize the country, and here we are a decade later and autonomous vehicles are... still 5 years away. But for real this time. Sure. Uh-huh.
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May 20, 2024 15:42
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don't understand what you mean by "an automatic tram, but with cars". That sounds a lot like a self driving car to me, unless you're suggesting that the cars are on rails? A lot of science fiction depicts Flying Cars as regular cars but with science fiction-grade super rotors in place of tires. By that standard we mastered basic antigrav with the helicopter! Anyway flying cars are window-dressing for fiction, even americans would hesitate at the grinding brutality of the casualty counts.
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May 20, 2024 15:54
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VitalSigns posted:Yeah exactly, there's so much hype and bullshitting by these companies that I just can't not laugh at one saying "oh yeah there's an 'automation specialist' in the car but take our word for it they never have to do anything and will soon be removed". Come on, tell me something I haven't heard before. All these companies conveniently leave out of their marketing material how much human intervention their product requires and it comes out later that it's another mechanical Turk that really runs on sub-minimum wage workers in India not gee-whiz Jetsons AI.
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May 20, 2024 16:23
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The crazy political emails are coming from inside the thread now, time to pull up
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May 20, 2024 16:44
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Staluigi posted:self driving cars turn out to be like amazon auto checkout stores, its actually multiple overseas workers remoting in to try to keep your car from crashing Good news, they're training on the GTA6 beta!
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May 20, 2024 16:46
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LonsomeSon posted:A lot of science fiction depicts Flying Cars as regular cars but with science fiction-grade super rotors in place of tires. By that standard we mastered basic antigrav with the helicopter! Multicopter drones are already pretty far along the flying car route, the biggest issue (as it's been for ages) is battery energy and power density And the fact that adding several new axes of control to the average consumer is a massive death toll waiting to happen
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May 20, 2024 16:46
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