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Hambilderberglar posted:Without wanting to get all They haven't shifted to more economic liberalism though, but to insane far-right talking points about xenophobia/muslim immigrants. PiS is not a traditional conservative party, they are crazy people á la Trump. How does this have anything to do with economic freedom? quote:Additionally, if what you say is correct, and the right shift of the Social Democratic parties of Europe was driven by the electorate. How would that then translate to *lower* electoral gains for them? If the base sees them shift rightward and that's something that they want, why punish the party? I don't see that as making much sense. Was there some terminal decline in people who hold social democrat convictions that (attempting to) represent these voters is no longer politically feasible? The social democratic parties are not necessarily the ones with that name. I don't know enough about the rest of Europe, but in Germany the Social Democratic Party split over a decade ago into the now centrist "SPD" and the actually social democratic "Left Party". The Left Party still supports legitimately SD policies, but has had pretty abysmal election results. People really like to proclaim that they are for more equality, peace on earth and all that good stuff. But when push comes to shove, they also REALLY, REALLY don't like higher taxes, less economic freedom and productivity.
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Mar 3, 2017 11:24
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I'm not sure if it's productive to compare the relative electoral success, or lack thereof, of SocDem parties in Poland to those in western Europe. To my admittedly western European sensibilities their relationship with "left of center" is very coloured by their experiences under the yoke of Moscow for a bigly chunk of the 20th century, and the relative decline of the left of center will always be more exaggerated if you're coming out of a half century of communism and suddenly you get to experiment with things like capitalism and income inequality.
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This just in https://twitter.com/solere92/status/837606927915954176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Mar 3, 2017 11:31
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Google Translate tells me he's saying he's stepping down as spokesman for Fillon.
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Mar 3, 2017 11:37
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Collateral Damage posted:Google Translate tells me he's saying he's stepping down as spokesman for Fillon. Correct. We're now up to 67 people withdrawing their support from him: http://www.liberation.fr/apps/2017/03/compteur-lacheurs-fillon/ Most of them are flocking to Juppé who is reportedly getting ready to take over. Meanwhile Fillon's entourage has called for a protest "against the judiciary" on Sunday which Macron labelled as "Shocking". Good stuff.
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Mar 3, 2017 11:50
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Is Juppé going to take the lead now ?Collateral Damage posted:Google Translate tells me he's saying he's stepping down as spokesman for Fillon. Yeah correct. I'll provide an attempt at a translation next time.
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Mar 3, 2017 11:59
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I love that the French for "spokesperson" literally translates as "word bearer" - sounds so gloriously WH40k. "I am the Word Bearer of Macron! Gaze upon the legions of corporate centrism and know despair, mortals!"
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Mar 3, 2017 12:11
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Sassy Sasquatch posted:Correct. We're now up to 67 people withdrawing their support from him:
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Mar 3, 2017 12:13
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LemonDrizzle posted:I love that the French for "spokesperson" literally translates as "word bearer" - sounds so gloriously WH40k. "In the grim drabness of the present there is only corporate centrism"?
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Mar 3, 2017 12:17
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Hambilderberglar posted:Additionally, if what you say is correct, and the right shift of the Social Democratic parties of Europe was driven by the electorate. How would that then translate to *lower* electoral gains for them? If the base sees them shift rightward and that's something that they want, why punish the party? I don't see that as making much sense. Was there some terminal decline in people who hold social democrat convictions that (attempting to) represent these voters is no longer politically feasible? I think you can make the argument that ~the left~ has a structural problem as their base has basically split. In the past their base was workers and low level employees, who wanted a certain degree of protection and the opportunity for themselves, and more importantly their children, to advance economically - the best example of this is "Arbeiterkinder" (worker's children) going to universities, one of the big success stories of the whole movement. Today this group has split. On the one hand you have to successful and well payed industrial worker, who was able to adapt to Industrie 4.0 and in some cases is in the top income tax bracket in Germany and on the other side you have a group of people who will probably have to rely on state assistance for their whole life, because they are not qualified enough to be successful in today's labor market. Now you have a situation where the goals of both groups are hardly compatible, and therefore the Left has splintered into ~third way~ and ~hardcore~ leftists, with charismatic figures being able to unite the camps from time to time, especially if they have a rather unpopular opponent, but once they come into power the lose to uniting figure they hated and splinter again. The phenomenon of mass-immigration has now introduced another element into this dilemma. Given their roots a lot of wealthier left-voters still want to support as many oppressed groups as possible (this also explains their support of other tiny minorities like the alphabet-soup groups) but this naturally conflicts with the interests of the group of people who are already reliant on state assistant, as the state has only limited resources and can only spend each Euro once, which means new immigrants are competitors for these scarce resources.
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Mar 3, 2017 12:22
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unpacked robinhood posted:This just in lol
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Mar 3, 2017 12:24
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:They haven't shifted to more economic liberalism though, but to insane far-right talking points about xenophobia/muslim immigrants. PiS is not a traditional conservative party, they are crazy people á la Trump. How does this have anything to do with economic freedom? The whole thing falls on its face once they take a breath and then immediately scream about immigrants being the cause of all of these things happening, but divorcing it from the nativism makes it seem like an eminently working-class platform. Taking the statements in a vacuum you can probably get people across the political spectrum, both voters and those they vote for, to agree that stagnating wages are problematic and need to be fixed. The difference is that Geert channels these frustrations onto people that look different but are just as poor, where "the left" (should) want to channel these frustrations into a class warfare that ends up with everyone getting fat as we eat the rich. There is a certain consistency in their platforms, and I think the reason that people like Geert are making electoral hay is because of who they choose to blame for their problems, not necessarily because of what they think of as the problem. Social democracy never went out of style, racism and nativism are just really, really hot right now, and people like to think that they belong to a certain political "tribe" no matter what their actual convictions are.
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Mar 3, 2017 12:24
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The traditional left in a lot of Europe, after the fall of communism, felt there was no more electoral pressure from the 'hard left' in the 1990s. So it moved towards the economic centre to gain more middle class votes. After 20 years of being centrist parties economically most traditional left parties have become far more focused on this middle-class vote than their original working class roots. So the working class across Europe are now abandoning them, and moving to populist hard right alternatives who are actually focusing on their desires. The FN, AfD etc are objectively awful, but I can completely see how an (un)employed working class family in Saxony or Auvergne would think they better represent their interests than the now very much Champagne Socialist traditional left parties. The traditional left parties need to re-focus towards economic issues to win this working class support back. Part of that is the migrant issue, actually beginning to ask "what will be the impact on the lowest 20% of our society if we let in 1million migrants to compete with them for jobs/housing/schools/welfare"? But other economic issues also remain. Its a double whammy for the traditional left, because at the same time a lot of their "new" centrist support is also evaporating and moving back towards centre-right Christian Democrat parties. Leaving the traditional left with social issues as their only defining raison d'être, and college educated intellectual social liberals as their only reliable core support. I would gladly support harder left alternatives like Melanchon, but I just don't think they're ever going to be electorally viable unfortunately. The best route for electoral salvation for the left is to move back to its centre-left roots, and rebuild the working class and liberal coalition that usually garners enough support to be electorally successful.
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Mar 3, 2017 12:57
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Blut posted:The traditional left parties need to re-focus towards economic issues to win this working class support back. Part of that is the migrant issue, actually beginning to ask "what will be the impact on the lowest 20% of our society if we let in 1million migrants to compete with them for jobs/housing/schools/welfare"? But other economic issues also remain. Partial answer (a UK study) page 25 posted:Once the occupational unpacked robinhood fucked around with this message at 13:20 on Mar 3, 2017 |
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Mar 3, 2017 13:16
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Hambilderberglar posted:That seems more like a branding/framing issue though. You have people like Frauke Petry and Geert Wilders who pluck at the heart strings of the disgruntled working class by mentioning things like wages, jobs, and declining care for the elderly as things that are both Unacceptable and must be remedied Immediately. That's a convenient narrative that I also believed for quite some time, but it simply has not been supported by facts. - the AfD is not a party of the working class: a recent Forsa study shows that only 27% of their voters have a household income below 2k EUR per month, compared to SPD(32%) and Left party (37%); the overwhelmingly majority of their voters have moved in from the center-right party, not from the left http://blog.tagesschau.de/2016/09/04/struktur-der-afd-waehlerschaft/ - the AfD was started as a FYGM anti-poor party and their modern program reflects that; they do not have any social democratic policies in their program that go beyond what the current government supports, instead they advocate for corporate tax decreases and lower taxes on high earners - the absolutely overwhelming majority of the AfD voters name immigration/xenophobia as their main concern; to some degree, it's even fair to call the AfD a single issue party since the rest of their program is either just vague/incoherent/insane nonsense or almost non-existent. the AfD lives and breathes xenophobia and not much else quote:There is a certain consistency in their platforms, and I think the reason that people like Geert are making electoral hay is because of who they choose to blame for their problems, not necessarily because of what they think of as the problem. Social democracy never went out of style, racism and nativism are just really, really hot right now, and people like to think that they belong to a certain political "tribe" no matter what their actual convictions are. So, if social democracy never went out of style, why are all the truly social democratic parties faring so poorly all over Europe? And do you think that the former social democrats are just too stupid to read a poll, see that there is so much support for change, and shift their rhetoric to the left?
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Mar 3, 2017 13:42
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https://twitter.com/OdoxaSondages/status/837608270118465537 Well.
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Mar 3, 2017 13:56
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Hambilderberglar posted:That seems more like a branding/framing issue though. You have people like Frauke Petry and Geert Wilders who pluck at the heart strings of the disgruntled working class by mentioning things like wages, jobs, and declining care for the elderly as things that are both Unacceptable and must be remedied Immediately. Social democrats haven't cared about class warfare since the 90s dude. They embraced neoliberalism, thinking that as long as they provided universal and cheap education and took some excess economic profits from this new direction to fund the poor who really couldn't cope they could stay true to the ideal of a just and equal society. The center left became center right economically, but with a veneer of feminism, environmentalism and multiculturalism and set about deconstructing the strong central state. They appealed to the 30-40 year olds with 1,5 kids who liked sipping rosé at dinner parties with each other. It brought them massive wins in the 90s. For added irony they embraced the muslim immigrants right wing liberals brought in in the 50s-70s to keep our dying industries afloat. Oh, and free college turned out to be regressive after a few generations as well. The middle classes didn't have to deal with failed immigration, they moved out of brown neighborhoods and take their kids off schools with too many brown ones. The rosé sipping crowd now got hooked by the actual center right who focus almost exclusively on them at the expense of the poor. The lower classes faced economic hardship and compete for housing and jobs with the immigrants. The white poor noticed labor doesn't give a poo poo about their economic plight, yet still considers middle class women, muslims and windmills less privileged than them so they stopped voting center left. Those people ran towards either extreme left or right wing parties depending on how much they loved the welfare state vs hated browns. Then the nu-right came along, promised both more welfare and less browns and so became social democrat kryptonite. The problem is a bit bigger than just framing.
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Mar 3, 2017 13:58
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Now the decision to stop this show is on Sarkozy's side. Can you imagine the general De Gaule violently murdering a member of his party's campaign for badmouthing him? I am still convinced this poo poo is his work. Can't wait either to see the anti-justice/pro-fillon manifestation this afternoon, it's mostly anti gay-marriage fuckers from la manif pour toute.It's going to be counter-manifestation central. The sweet sound of the cookware.
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Mar 3, 2017 14:04
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LemonDrizzle posted:I love that the French for "spokesperson" literally translates as "word bearer" - sounds so gloriously WH40k. If you want a literal translation, you'd get "speech bearer". Or "speech carrier". Verb-thing words are quite common, just with "porte" you can get porte-manteau (coatrack), porte-outil (chuck), porte-gobelet (cupholder), porte-avion (aircraft carrier)... It's a naturally gender-neutral word, too, instead of the English having to come up with "spokesperson" to replace "spokesman" and "spokeswoman". On the other hand it makes it impossible to get words like "spokesbird".
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Mar 3, 2017 15:33
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Toplowtech posted:Now the decision to stop this show is on Sarkozy's side. Can you imagine the general De Gaule violently murdering a member of his party's campaign for badmouthing him?
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Mar 3, 2017 15:33
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:That's a convenient narrative that I also believed for quite some time, but it simply has not been supported by facts. And does this data exist for party membership figures as well as party voters? I am curious to see if they track. Interesting regardless, thanks for your clarification. I may be projecting a little bit too much of Geert onto Germany, as he has a habit of polling really well some of the most reliably red areas in the country by tapping into a sense of resentment over "foreign" poor being prioritized over our "own" needy. The AfD then does not have the theme that Germany's (white) needy poor are being neglected to fund immigrants? What's their nominal "justification" here for hating immigrants then? A purely cultural thing where they think the rich currywurst tradition is under threat? As for your last question, I'm not sure what would be a "truly" social democratic party in TYOOL 2017, but what I would call the once-traditional social-democratic parties (The various national labour parties pre 1995 or so) are faring poorly because of a top-down capitulation to neoliberalism leading to their voter base abandoning them. I think the voter base has very little to do with this and the party mandarins have just evolved into self interested little shills as they've spent so long living inside of the bubble of power that they've forgotten what life is like for their constituents. Instead of advancing social democracy it turned into a peace dividend fire sale of everything the state had built, followed by cushy gigs on various boards for making this possible. Who gives a hoot what the polls say if you're going to be rewarded with a cushy private sector job and the full consequences of what you were responsible for won't manifest themselves for another 5 years. I think if the people who should represent you sell you out like that, you'll flee to anyone or anything that promises to turbofuck them in retaliation.
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Mar 3, 2017 15:42
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I wonder why the study picked exactly 2000€ as the magic barrier and whether that number was controlled for factors like age and geography. But yes, the right-wing populists are not only appealing to low income voters, they also get votes from the nationalist reservoir most countries have, but that group has a much lower ceiling.
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Mar 3, 2017 15:57
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:It's a very simplistic explanation for what's going on and there are a lot of examples that contradict it. For example, countries like Poland that don't have any significant immigration or existing immigration population, have had some of the hardest authoritarian-xenophobic reactions on the continent. Germany, on the other hand, a country that has been below replacement rate since the 60s and has been taking in multiple multi-million people immigration waves over the decades, has had one of the weakest right-wing shifts. Regarding the counter-example of Germany and Poland, perhaps their respective history explain the various intensity of their right-wing shifts. It is possible that a country like Germany, simply due to its history, offers a less hospitable environment for nativist ideas and discourse, which inhibited the growth of right-wing parties, while in Poland no such obstacles exists. The far-right is much more predominant in Poland, and the traction gained by their silly idea of a country-wide fence illustrate that. But in the end, we can see that the same phenomenon is still at plays in Germany as elsewhere: the AfD is riding the wave of anxieties generated by the perception that globalization and multiculturalism are inflicted. You're right about echochambers and the role they play. But look at the news item that fuels it the most; it's always either a) insecurity at the bottom caused by someone with the wrong skin color/foreign-sounding name or b) insecurity from the top caused by oppressive/ineffectual EU regulations/US influence/competitive Chinese trade practices.
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Mar 3, 2017 16:53
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Migrants from non-OECD countries aren't really taking jobs from anyone in west/north Yurop.
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Mar 3, 2017 18:30
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The economic historian Claudia Goldin who studied anti-immigrant movements in the United States found that they tended to swell in legislative and cultural prominence after economic downturns. I think their current rise in Europe is just as closely tied to the great recession as it is to long-term changes in the policy of Social Democratic parties. There is also some sociological research that people who feel less secure themselves begin to become more competitive in a way, with the success of others looking more threatening or seen as at their expense, even if there not necessarily evidence that it is. I think this also plays a role in the Euro's current problems. A Buttery Pastry mentioned a few pages back that the many national identities within the Eurozone are standing in the way of fiscal federalism. There are obviously ways Greece's problems could be solved in a rational system, but other counties are happy to watch them burn. Like GC's posts about Greece a little back were great examples of some of these attitudes: Greece signed the treaties, so it's their fault they're screwed. Why should Germany lift a finger to help? Not my problem. Germany has to look out for its own interests. A rational system would be able to see that even if the Greeks did screw themselves, at some point you have to give and reform the system so it can work. European politics don't seem capable of that right now. When our own position feels insecure, we instinctively start to judge our position relative to others, even if the effect is to make everybody worse off.
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Mar 3, 2017 18:49
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hey are you ready for more fun times, well guess what, Marine Le Pen is also gonna face the judges https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedFRpol/status/837725758017646592
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Mar 3, 2017 19:09
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Hambilderberglar posted:Do the income numbers control for geography? I'm given to understand that Die Linke's electoral base is primarily in the former DDR. Lower average incomes throughout the region would lift those percentages for parties whose base is there, but I don't know if that is something that actually needs to be controlled for when determining who is or is not "working class". The AfD has their power base in the East too, just like the Linke. About party membership: IRC there is an older study showing that they have an overrepresentation of civil servants and other upper middle class people in their party. But the study is a couple years old and from the time when they were still the FYGM anti-bailout party only, so it probably changed somewhat since then. quote:Interesting regardless, thanks for your clarification. I may be projecting a little bit too much of Geert onto Germany, as he has a habit of polling really well some of the most reliably red areas in the country by tapping into a sense of resentment over "foreign" poor being prioritized over our "own" needy. It's a thing, definitely, especially in the East and especially with the nationalistic Pegida movement. But their main focus is on crime(specifically rape, they love bringing up rape), clash of civilizations and welfare queen rhetoric. You gotta consider that the German state is absolutely flush with money right now and doesn't even know what to do with all the cash. It's very hard to pretend that cuts to social benefits have anything to do with immigrants, instead of ideology. quote:As for your last question, I'm not sure what would be a "truly" social democratic party in TYOOL 2017, but what I would call the once-traditional social-democratic parties (The various national labour parties pre 1995 or so) are faring poorly because of a top-down capitulation to neoliberalism leading to their voter base abandoning them. When I talk about social democrats I'm talking about parties like the Linke, not the SPD. Sorry about the confusion.
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Mar 3, 2017 19:12
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https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/837721103174889475 I guess this still goes in this thread for now 
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Mar 3, 2017 20:14
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Truga posted:https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/837721103174889475 He's an MEP so everything he does or has done is officially Europe's Fault.
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Mar 3, 2017 20:18
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That counts as lèse-majesté right?
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Mar 3, 2017 20:41
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:The AfD has their power base in the East too, just like the Linke.  quote:It's a thing, definitely, especially in the East and especially with the nationalistic Pegida movement. But their main focus is on crime(specifically rape, they love bringing up rape), clash of civilizations and welfare queen rhetoric. quote:When I talk about social democrats I'm talking about parties like the Linke, not the SPD. Sorry about the confusion. quote:So, if social democracy never went out of style, why are all the truly social democratic parties faring so poorly all over Europe? And do you think that the former social democrats are just too stupid to read a poll, see that there is so much support for change, and shift their rhetoric to the left?" I can only really expound for the Netherlands because I can't say if the exact same circumstances are true without qualifications everywhere else, but the political order of the 1960s and later was strongly defined by christian democrat-liberal coalition governments with Labour rarely making it into government. The start of their sustained presence in government wasn't really marked by a major shift in policy. Ruud Lubbers (CDA) privatized a whole raft of poo poo in the 1980s to get out of the stagflation quagmire of the 70s and a host of other crap. When the liberals crater in the late 80s and Labour finally gets its shot at governing, it proceeds to do absolutely nothing besides continue with business as usual until the late 90s. Where the Communist Party of the Netherlands (when it existed) and the Socialist Party never polled above five seats until the 1990s, a sustained decade of being hosed by Labour sees the SP shoot up from 2-5 to a peak of 25 seats in the 2006 elections. I see that as evidence that there's a healthy demand for social democratic policies. Of course, some will stick by labour, some will turn right, but 25/150 is a very decent showing in this system. The fact that the (Dutch) Labour party still continues to cling to the "Liberals with feminism and windmills" model in spite of their continued slide into irrelevance makes me think they're either infiltrated by weird ideologues, or too stupid to read a poll.
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Mar 3, 2017 20:45
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François Fillon's campaign director resigned at lunchtime and then changed his mind this evening. e: and now he is resigned again http://mobile.lemonde.fr/election-p...t.co/GsPiZA6ciT Sneaks McDevious fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Mar 3, 2017 |
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Mar 3, 2017 21:00
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https://twitter.com/leJDD/status/837740127527010304 Fillon's campaign manager has handed in his resignation, effective this Sunday. Edit: julian assflange posted:François Fillon's campaign director resigned at lunchtime and then changed his mind this evening. It sounds like he actually didn't change his mind, despite what Fillon claimed.
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Mar 3, 2017 21:03
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Kassad posted:It sounds like he actually didn't change his mind, despite what Fillon claimed. That's less fun
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Mar 3, 2017 21:12
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julian assflange posted:François Fillon's campaign director resigned at lunchtime and then changed his mind this evening. lol
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Mar 3, 2017 21:14
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julian assflange posted:François Fillon's campaign director resigned at lunchtime and then changed his mind this evening.
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Mar 3, 2017 21:15
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julian assflange posted:That's less fun
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Mar 3, 2017 21:30
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He is actually delusional. This rally for his....freedom? on Sunday is just bizarre.
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Mar 3, 2017 21:38
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"I'm not owned! I'm not owned!" Fillon insists as he slowly shrinks into an onion.
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Mar 3, 2017 22:00
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Hambilderberglar posted:Wasn't the NSDAP also buoyed by petit bourgeois who were wiped out by the depression? How apropos that this is true for the AfD. Fascism is the capitalist class's final resort when liberalism fails and is threatened by anti-capitalist social and political forces.
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Mar 3, 2017 22:01
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julian assflange posted:He is actually delusional. This rally for his....freedom? on Sunday is just bizarre. *decision may change if she want those assholes' votes. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Mar 3, 2017 |
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Mar 3, 2017 22:11
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