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Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Johnny Keats posted:

We should collectively decide on a player to all shoot on N1, making universes where that player is alive highly likely for them to be scum. Then we execute that player on the following day, almost certain to flip scum, and all the universes where we shot him dead collapse and everybody remaining is more likely to be town. Rinse and repeat.

It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum%

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Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Also, flipping players with a higher dead % is guaranteed to collapse more universes where those who targeted that player are scum. So if you want to be town (which you probably do), it is in your interest to execute people more of us have killed.

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

In conclusion, the rule where executing a player who has been previously nightkilled collapses every universe where they were previously nightkilled, is our best way of forcing universes to collapse in our favor.

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Johnny Keats posted:

It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum%

This is because prior to the flip calculation, universes will collapse where that player was nightkilled. This guarantees that the scum% will rise more during this calculation when the dead% is more. So we can calculate the true chance of flipping scum by adding the dead% to the scum%

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them.

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Johnny Keats posted:

For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them.

Could the mod confirm this? I believe it is correct.

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Or for purposes of something that could be possible during the game, I guess more like 49% scum 1% ent 50% dead. Where the 1% ent is immortal

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


Johnny Keats posted:

It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum%

Look at it like this:

When someone flips as a result of the vote, the result will be divided between their Town% and their Scum%. Their Dead% and their Ent% will be omitted, generally (exception: Ent% will be included if Town% + Scum% = 0).


Johnny Keats posted:

For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them.

So this is correct.

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
Not gonna read anything keats posted

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

JosefStalinator posted:

Not gonna read anything keats posted

You're a bastard and a son of a birth

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Johnny Keats posted:

You're a bastard and a son of a birth

Keats confirmed foam

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude
everyone knows what their percentage of being scum is, so genuine scumhunting can be had especially as the game goes on

Your Personal Muse
Oct 5, 2010

what a cool dude
but my general plan is to have fun instead of doing the mathematically optimal thing

PhantomMuzzles
Jun 23, 2022

It's a puzzle.
I'm going to roleplay as all of the pink/yellow/black/red power rangers and whenever someone says something mathy and blue power rangery I'm going to say "Now say it in English!" and then the studio audience will laugh at the nerd

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


PhantomMuzzles posted:

I'm going to roleplay as all of the pink/yellow/black/red power rangers and whenever someone says something mathy and blue power rangery I'm going to say "Now say it in English!" and then the studio audience will laugh at the nerd

Wait, Power Rangers had a studio audience?

PhantomMuzzles
Jun 23, 2022

It's a puzzle.

Quackles posted:

Wait, Power Rangers had a studio audience?

Yes, me and my big brother Tim

PhantomMuzzles
Jun 23, 2022

It's a puzzle.
So yes I will be the pink, yellow, black, and red power rangers and also myself and my big brother. That's my role in this game.

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


shwinnebego: Please join my Discord server as soon as you can.

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"

Johnny Keats posted:

We should collectively decide on a player to all shoot on N1, making universes where that player is alive highly likely for them to be scum. Then we execute that player on the following day, almost certain to flip scum, and all the universes where we shot him dead collapse and everybody remaining is more likely to be town. Rinse and repeat.

You're right. I'll volunteer to be shot N2 (flip D3), if you volunteer to be shot N1 (flip D2 and, by that theory, flip scum)

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Shellception posted:

You're right. I'll volunteer to be shot N2 (flip D3), if you volunteer to be shot N1 (flip D2 and, by that theory, flip scum)

No because I want to win with town.

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


Night 0

Public Probability Table
code:
Who      Town%    Power%   Ent%     Scum%    Dead%   
IDEAL    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NACRE    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
TAROT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
EBONY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
REMIT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
DAUNT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IMAGO    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
MONAD    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
ETHOS    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NINJA    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
SHOAL    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IONIC    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
OMEGA    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NUMEN    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
AMUCK    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
LEAFY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IVORY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
TOKAY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
YEARS    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       

253,955,520 universes remain.
 
Tonight, only Entanglers act. The night will last for 48 hours or until everybody submits an action.

Note: The most recent public probability table, as well as the Votefinder tally, will always be posted near the top of the OP.


quote:

"A poet once said, 'The whole universe is in a glass of wine.' We will probably never know in what sense he meant it, for poets do not write to be understood. But it is true that if we look at a glass of wine closely enough we see the entire universe."
—Richard Feynman

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


quote:

"Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)"
—Walt Whitman

Day 1

Public Probability Table
code:
Who      Town%    Power%   Ent%     Scum%    Dead%   
IDEAL    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NACRE    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
TAROT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
EBONY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
REMIT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
DAUNT    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IMAGO    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
MONAD    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
ETHOS    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NINJA    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
SHOAL    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IONIC    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
OMEGA    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
NUMEN    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
AMUCK    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
LEAFY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
IVORY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
TOKAY    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       
YEARS    78.9%    15.8%    5.3%     15.8%    0%       

253,955,520 universes remain.

Last night, 5 masonries were created, and no masonries closed.
 
Voting is open. It will remain open for 48 hours, or until a supermajority of 14 players is reached.

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"
Good morning.

Johnny Keats posted:

No because I want to win with town.

So do I. But I don't wanna play "let's all pile up and bully a rando to make them literally lose the game, it'll be fun". If you want that strategy, you go first, and as I said, I go second. Offer valid for anyone else who wants to take it.

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
hi im town probably

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face

Tired Moritz posted:

hi im town probably

Scum post ##vote tmor

Bifauxnen
Aug 12, 2010

Curses! Foiled again!


78.9% of the time, I'm town all the time

Zoya
Jun 12, 2023

echoes of a distant past,
bodies die but voices last.
once were held within a cell,
your mind is where these voices dwell.




SCREEEEEEEEEAWWWWWWW

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

I'm in 0 masonries, that feels wrong

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
i misread and i should have forced bif into 500 masonries again

Zoya
Jun 12, 2023

echoes of a distant past,
bodies die but voices last.
once were held within a cell,
your mind is where these voices dwell.




##vote keats

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

Zoya posted:

##vote keats

So you've chosen death

Zoya
Jun 12, 2023

echoes of a distant past,
bodies die but voices last.
once were held within a cell,
your mind is where these voices dwell.




Johnny Keats posted:

So you've chosen death

obs chat is similar to a masonry! SCREEEEEEEEEEAAAAAA

Johnny Keats
Jan 24, 2023

40 million scumchats is a lot to keep track of

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"
Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true.

That's also why you get a "people who can create your masonry" message, that's all people who labelled you.

Also, if we flip the entangler somehow, all masonries disappear, because the entangler has a single target, so all masonries are the collective work of *two* entanglers that cannot exist at the same time. Quantums :v:

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


Shellception posted:

Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true.

That's also why you get a "people who can create your masonry" message, that's all people who labelled you.

Also, if we flip the entangler somehow, all masonries disappear, because the entangler has a single target, so all masonries are the collective work of *two* entanglers that cannot exist at the same time. Quantums :v:

Pretty much. Check the post immediately after the OP for detailed info on how people are paired.

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face

Shellception posted:

Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true.

That's also why you get a "people who can create your masonry" message, that's all people who labelled you.

Also, if we flip the entangler somehow, all masonries disappear, because the entangler has a single target, so all masonries are the collective work of *two* entanglers that cannot exist at the same time. Quantums :v:

I did not get a "people who can create your masonry" message so I guess that means exactly one person submitted my name. Thanks pal!

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"

Maugrim posted:

I did not get a "people who can create your masonry" message so I guess that means exactly one person submitted my name. Thanks pal!

Ok yeah that was a quite liberal paraphrasing - near the message where you get told you're the lucky owner of a new masonry there should be a list of names. Those people entangled you, I'm rather sure this should also be so with a single person?

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"
Also the Entangler apparently cannot die unless their death is the only valid result:

Quackles posted:

E: Entangler
1 player is the entangler. They win when all mafia players are confirmed dead.

If a universe exists where you are the entangler, you submit a join request each night, where you name a single player you want to pull into a two-person masonry. (This can be yourself.)

Up to two masonries will be created from the nightly pool of join requests, by pairing up the four players that seem to 'need' a masonry most (favoring people with the fewest current masonries, and then after that the people with the most requests. Full details on the masonry-making algorithm is in 'How Masonries Are Created', in the Supplementary Rules post).
Note: During Night 0, as many masonries as possible will be made instead.

When a player joins a masonry, they are notified of the names of possible entanglers that pulled them into it. Masonries continue until one member dies, or something else happens to disturb it:
  • A player can be in up to two masonries at a time, with two different people. If they would gain a third masonry, their oldest current masonry will close.
  • If it is impossible for a player to be the entangler, any masonries they created will close immediately unless another pair of entanglers could have created it.

The entangler has quantum immortality; they cannot die unless their death would end the game, or if no other possibility exists. Therefore, if a player dies, they cannot have been the entangler, and all universes where they would have died as the entangler will collapse instead. This can cause masonries to close, as described above.

So the Entangler almost has to be the last surviving town player anyway. Anyone we vote out isn't gonna flip entangler, it goes the other way - anyone killed is NOT entangler. I'm not sure how many people would need to die for a given masonry to close; I assume if you only get entangled by one person, and that person dies, then masonry is no longer valid, but if you have been entangled by two people, then both would need to die for it to disappear due to you not being a valid target any more. Same applies to your partner. I do know we're told why a masonry disappeared, tho, 'cause I asked and was told so.

But also am not terribly sure and this is also probably not too important, tbh, I'm just kinda bored.

Shellception
Oct 12, 2016

"I'm made up of the memories of my parents and my grandparents, all my ancestors. They're in the way I look, in the colour of my hair. And I'm made up of everyone I've ever met who's changed the way I think"
Anyway, today's vote literally doesn't matter, everyone has the same chances of being whatever.

If you want asymmetry, I guess that if you have a masonry where one of the two people was chosen by a single person, then don't vote out that person, or your masonbud, if you still want to have a masonry after D1, 'cause those are the two things that will cause it to pop into nothing before N2 (N2 being the earliest where you can get three masonries).

I'm not voting out my buddy, and we're not in the single case neither of us, so everyone else is fair game for me, including myself.

I'm happy leaving it to chance, but since game doesn't look like it's going to be noisy (I hope I am wrong) I am also perfectly fine parking my vote on the lowest postcount, unless the person really has a reason to be lurking, that is.

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Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
We should just vote the person that annoys us the most

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