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Johnny Keats posted:We should collectively decide on a player to all shoot on N1, making universes where that player is alive highly likely for them to be scum. Then we execute that player on the following day, almost certain to flip scum, and all the universes where we shot him dead collapse and everybody remaining is more likely to be town. Rinse and repeat. It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum%
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:26 |
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# ? Jun 9, 2024 23:52 |
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Also, flipping players with a higher dead % is guaranteed to collapse more universes where those who targeted that player are scum. So if you want to be town (which you probably do), it is in your interest to execute people more of us have killed.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:28 |
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In conclusion, the rule where executing a player who has been previously nightkilled collapses every universe where they were previously nightkilled, is our best way of forcing universes to collapse in our favor.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:30 |
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Johnny Keats posted:It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum% This is because prior to the flip calculation, universes will collapse where that player was nightkilled. This guarantees that the scum% will rise more during this calculation when the dead% is more. So we can calculate the true chance of flipping scum by adding the dead% to the scum%
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:32 |
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For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:35 |
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Johnny Keats posted:For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them. Could the mod confirm this? I believe it is correct.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:36 |
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Or for purposes of something that could be possible during the game, I guess more like 49% scum 1% ent 50% dead. Where the 1% ent is immortal
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:39 |
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Johnny Keats posted:It should be noted that players with a higher dead % are almost certainly more likely to flip scum. This is ostensibly more reliable than the scum% Look at it like this: When someone flips as a result of the vote, the result will be divided between their Town% and their Scum%. Their Dead% and their Ent% will be omitted, generally (exception: Ent% will be included if Town% + Scum% = 0). Johnny Keats posted:For example if a person appears as 50% scum and 50% dead, they will be guaranteed to flip scum after we execute them. So this is correct.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:46 |
Not gonna read anything keats posted
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:46 |
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JosefStalinator posted:Not gonna read anything keats posted You're a bastard and a son of a birth
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:47 |
Johnny Keats posted:You're a bastard and a son of a birth Keats confirmed foam
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:49 |
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everyone knows what their percentage of being scum is, so genuine scumhunting can be had especially as the game goes on
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 04:53 |
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but my general plan is to have fun instead of doing the mathematically optimal thing
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:08 |
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I'm going to roleplay as all of the pink/yellow/black/red power rangers and whenever someone says something mathy and blue power rangery I'm going to say "Now say it in English!" and then the studio audience will laugh at the nerd
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:30 |
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PhantomMuzzles posted:I'm going to roleplay as all of the pink/yellow/black/red power rangers and whenever someone says something mathy and blue power rangery I'm going to say "Now say it in English!" and then the studio audience will laugh at the nerd Wait, Power Rangers had a studio audience?
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:34 |
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Quackles posted:Wait, Power Rangers had a studio audience? Yes, me and my big brother Tim
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:38 |
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So yes I will be the pink, yellow, black, and red power rangers and also myself and my big brother. That's my role in this game.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:39 |
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shwinnebego: Please join my Discord server as soon as you can.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 05:50 |
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Johnny Keats posted:We should collectively decide on a player to all shoot on N1, making universes where that player is alive highly likely for them to be scum. Then we execute that player on the following day, almost certain to flip scum, and all the universes where we shot him dead collapse and everybody remaining is more likely to be town. Rinse and repeat. You're right. I'll volunteer to be shot N2 (flip D3), if you volunteer to be shot N1 (flip D2 and, by that theory, flip scum)
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 07:22 |
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Shellception posted:You're right. I'll volunteer to be shot N2 (flip D3), if you volunteer to be shot N1 (flip D2 and, by that theory, flip scum) No because I want to win with town.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 07:57 |
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Night 0 Public Probability Table code:
Tonight, only Entanglers act. The night will last for 48 hours or until everybody submits an action. Note: The most recent public probability table, as well as the Votefinder tally, will always be posted near the top of the OP. quote:"A poet once said, 'The whole universe is in a glass of wine.' We will probably never know in what sense he meant it, for poets do not write to be understood. But it is true that if we look at a glass of wine closely enough we see the entire universe."
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 08:02 |
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quote:"Do I contradict myself? Day 1 Public Probability Table code:
Voting is open. It will remain open for 48 hours, or until a supermajority of 14 players is reached.
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:00 |
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Good morning.Johnny Keats posted:No because I want to win with town. So do I. But I don't wanna play "let's all pile up and bully a rando to make them literally lose the game, it'll be fun". If you want that strategy, you go first, and as I said, I go second. Offer valid for anyone else who wants to take it.
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:11 |
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hi im town probably
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:23 |
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Tired Moritz posted:hi im town probably Scum post ##vote tmor
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:41 |
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78.9% of the time, I'm town all the time
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:42 |
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SCREEEEEEEEEAWWWWWWW
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:50 |
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I'm in 0 masonries, that feels wrong
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:50 |
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i misread and i should have forced bif into 500 masonries again
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:53 |
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##vote keats
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:54 |
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Zoya posted:##vote keats So you've chosen death
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 08:58 |
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Johnny Keats posted:So you've chosen death obs chat is similar to a masonry! SCREEEEEEEEEEAAAAAA
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 09:09 |
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40 million scumchats is a lot to keep track of
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 09:11 |
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Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true. That's also why you get a "people who can create your masonry" message, that's all people who labelled you. Also, if we flip the entangler somehow, all masonries disappear, because the entangler has a single target, so all masonries are the collective work of *two* entanglers that cannot exist at the same time. Quantums
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 10:11 |
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Shellception posted:Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true. Pretty much. Check the post immediately after the OP for detailed info on how people are paired.
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 10:19 |
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Shellception posted:Oh also, because in our masonry there was the question of "how". If I am right, the way masonries work, you input just one target and mostly stick a big PERSON HAS MASONRY label on their forehead. Then that person gets paired with someone else who also has label, not necessarily with you (I didn't choose my bud), so the label HAS MASONRY becomes true. I did not get a "people who can create your masonry" message so I guess that means exactly one person submitted my name. Thanks pal!
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 11:56 |
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Maugrim posted:I did not get a "people who can create your masonry" message so I guess that means exactly one person submitted my name. Thanks pal! Ok yeah that was a quite liberal paraphrasing - near the message where you get told you're the lucky owner of a new masonry there should be a list of names. Those people entangled you, I'm rather sure this should also be so with a single person?
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 12:22 |
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Also the Entangler apparently cannot die unless their death is the only valid result:Quackles posted:E: Entangler So the Entangler almost has to be the last surviving town player anyway. Anyone we vote out isn't gonna flip entangler, it goes the other way - anyone killed is NOT entangler. I'm not sure how many people would need to die for a given masonry to close; I assume if you only get entangled by one person, and that person dies, then masonry is no longer valid, but if you have been entangled by two people, then both would need to die for it to disappear due to you not being a valid target any more. Same applies to your partner. I do know we're told why a masonry disappeared, tho, 'cause I asked and was told so. But also am not terribly sure and this is also probably not too important, tbh, I'm just kinda bored.
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 12:38 |
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Anyway, today's vote literally doesn't matter, everyone has the same chances of being whatever. If you want asymmetry, I guess that if you have a masonry where one of the two people was chosen by a single person, then don't vote out that person, or your masonbud, if you still want to have a masonry after D1, 'cause those are the two things that will cause it to pop into nothing before N2 (N2 being the earliest where you can get three masonries). I'm not voting out my buddy, and we're not in the single case neither of us, so everyone else is fair game for me, including myself. I'm happy leaving it to chance, but since game doesn't look like it's going to be noisy (I hope I am wrong) I am also perfectly fine parking my vote on the lowest postcount, unless the person really has a reason to be lurking, that is.
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 12:58 |
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# ? Jun 9, 2024 23:52 |
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We should just vote the person that annoys us the most
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# ? Nov 17, 2023 13:34 |