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Arkane posted:Tesla at 89 in the after hours Anyone know why this happened? I invested quite a bit in TSLA at 35 and just now noticed it's gone up so much. I get the feeling that I should sell it since there's not really a good reason for it to have gone up this much. Looking at the short data it looks like this might be a squeeze? Mitt Romney fucked around with this message at 02:57 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 02:48
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Arkane posted:Tesla at 89 in the after hours I feel like the valuation has gone past overpriced to totally fantastical. If I were more of a gambling man and had the cash to spare I would want some of the action but anyone buying in now would just be betting on momentum (doesn't mean it isn't going to go up by 15% tomorrow and I'll want to do it even more). Have we found the AAPL of 2013? Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:12 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 03:04
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Set a trailing stop if you are concerned.
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May 14, 2013 03:17
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Mitt Romney posted:Anyone know why this happened? I invested quite a bit in TSLA at 35 and just now noticed it's gone up so much. I get the feeling that I should sell it since there's not really a good reason for it to have gone up this much. Looking at the short data it looks like this might be a squeeze? Um, if you didn't know why it went up at least a little bit, how do you know if there is a good reason to sell or not?
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May 14, 2013 03:27
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The volume is declining though, so it's going to have to at least slow down soon -- such growth is not maintainable. But daamn I even got out of calls and just bought some stock because I wanted some exposure still, but less. I didn't realize that my loving stock would go up $8 in a day... don't even ask me what the Jan 2014 75s are going for now. 
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May 14, 2013 03:30
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Thoughts on Cisco going into earnings? The market has known about weak enterprise and carrier spending for some time now, but I don't think it has priced in Cisco's potential growth in the space. I think the company is making good on its promise to be more software-oriented; except for Intucell, they made some great acquisitions to position themselves accordingly. Customers will have to address the exponential increase in data traffic at some point, and whether its through bigger ports or better programmability, that spend is going to Cisco. At 11-12x PE and at over 3% dividend, it looks cheap. Maybe it takes a hit after earnings this Wednesday, but in a year and a half, I think you will have a solid profit.
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May 14, 2013 04:25
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Mitt Romney posted:Anyone know why this happened? I invested quite a bit in TSLA at 35 and just now noticed it's gone up so much. I get the feeling that I should sell it since there's not really a good reason for it to have gone up this much. Looking at the short data it looks like this might be a squeeze? I'd recoup cost basis and just hang onto the rest for the long term. The future is very bright indeed. I'm mostly just talking about short-term moves. I am super bullish and I even think this recent run-up is insane. Turkeybone posted:The volume is declining though, so it's going to have to at least slow down soon -- such growth is not maintainable. But daamn I even got out of calls and just bought some stock because I wanted some exposure still, but less. I didn't realize that my loving stock would go up $8 in a day... don't even ask me what the Jan 2014 75s are going for now. My first trade on Tesla was in late March when I bought June 42 calls for ~$1 each. That'd be a 47 bagger. I trimmed along the way, but 1500% return is what I ended up with before giving back some today.
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May 14, 2013 04:25
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fougera posted:Thoughts on Cisco going into earnings? I've been long on cisco for a long time, a substantial portion of my portfolio is made up of that stock. I'm in at 16.5 from mid 2012, happy with how things are progressing. I still think they're cheap - but not as much as a value as when I picked them up originally. My 'sell' target is around 28, depending on how earnings continue to shape up.
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May 14, 2013 04:55
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tsla up another 8% in pre-market trading.
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May 14, 2013 13:08
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So when you short a stock, who's taking the loss if you make a profit? The broker who lent you the stock? Why would a broker engage in that? Is it really a 50/50 split of winners and losers long term and they make just commission?
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May 14, 2013 13:24
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Well if you're an institution that tends to hold on to a stock for years, then you might as well lend it out since shorter term gains/losses don't really concern you that much.
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May 14, 2013 13:43
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Mitt Romney posted:Anyone know why this happened? I invested quite a bit in TSLA at 35 and just now noticed it's gone up so much. I get the feeling that I should sell it since there's not really a good reason for it to have gone up this much. Looking at the short data it looks like this might be a squeeze? From a technical standpoint, parabolics are a decent way to trail your stop. That'd put it currently at (gulp) 66.5 on a daily chart. Here's an explanation of how they work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabolic_SAR
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May 14, 2013 13:51
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FlashBangBob posted:So when you short a stock, who's taking the loss if you make a profit? The broker who lent you the stock? Why would a broker engage in that? Is it really a 50/50 split of winners and losers long term and they make just commission? Nobody- you borrow X shares, and return X shares. If the person who is holding the shares you borrowed wants to let go of their holdings because the stock is going down, the broker (probably?) silently swaps everything on the back end. e: Stocks are not a 0-sum game, there isn't necessarily anybody losing money when you make money. They no longer have the opportunity to make money, but it's not like options.
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May 14, 2013 14:38
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TUBALLINATOR posted:Well if you're an institution that tends to hold on to a stock for years, then you might as well lend it out since shorter term gains/losses don't really concern you that much.
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May 14, 2013 14:44
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e: Also TSLA is in USA Today, so now it's time to sell. Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 18:40 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 14:49
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Shmoogy posted:Nobody This doesn't make any sense. Think about it -- somebody has to own (is long) the shares for you to borrow them. If you borrow those shares and sell them to someone else (which is how you get short), that person is now long the shares. If the price goes down, that person loses money because the shares he bought from you have decreased in value.
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May 14, 2013 14:52
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The person who lent the stock is always getting back the same amount of money (in theory). I lend someone $500 (or the equivalent of $500 in stock), I'm getting back $500 plus interest. What happens with that stock, good or bad, is not my concern.
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May 14, 2013 15:15
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Amun posted:This doesn't make any sense. Think about it -- somebody has to own (is long) the shares for you to borrow them. If you borrow those shares and sell them to someone else (which is how you get short), that person is now long the shares. If the price goes down, that person loses money because the shares he bought from you have decreased in value. I don't think that was what the question was getting at. Yes of course, when stock prices change, everybody gains and loses- but he was wondering who is losing money when you short a stock, and why would they borrow you their shares to sell, when obviously their stock becomes worth less as you're holding onto them- if your short is profitable The answer to that is that they're generally institutionally held shares which the broker can borrow out- and the institutions care about the longer term, so short fluctuations in which you (potentially) make money shorting them don't concern them very much. If the stock drops so substantially that they wish to unload their poorly performing shares- the broker will allow them to sell, and your borrowed shares will be borrowed from somebody else- which is done behind the scenes. e: ^ Yes pretty much that. They don't care about small price fluctuations because they are getting money, or free trades or some sort of kickback from brokers for allowing them to borrow stock. In their accounts, they still have X shares of stock + $$$, and likely sell calls or have other methods of making money off of stocks which they are holding onto.
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May 14, 2013 15:19
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I saw Tesla open to 95, and I took what technical traders refer to as the YOLO approach. It involves just staring at it and hoping it falls.
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May 14, 2013 15:29
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Shmoogy posted:I don't think that was what the question was getting at. Yes of course, when stock prices change, everybody gains and loses- but he was wondering who is losing money when you short a stock, and why would they borrow you their shares to sell, when obviously their stock becomes worth less as you're holding onto them- if your short is profitable Also it's not like you can short infinite shares.. there are plenty instances where something that everyone wants to short, well, the shares aren't just there to do it. I need to dig out that old post I had where I said DDD would not got below 50.. and that was before the stock split. SSYS DDD and XONE are all up bunches today. There's like ridiculous amounts of bullishness in general out there, moreso than in 1995 which was a similarly obscene year. I mean, there are various reasons I'm sure, and I'm not educated enough to talk about them fully, but between all the dollar printing (and yet for all we are printing the dollar is gaining against other currencies, so I guess there's the "we beat out this recession and you didn't" trade) and economic recovery, there's a lot of bearishness being shed. Again I'm not going to try and explain it but I'll just roll with it. 
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May 14, 2013 16:22
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I was thinking about buying into TSLA after their earnings but just never got around to it. I certainly wouldn't have expected the ridiculous rally we've seen since then, but still... TSLA is my new NFLX 
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May 14, 2013 16:26
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Josh Lyman posted:I was thinking about buying into TSLA after their earnings but just never got around to it. I certainly wouldn't have expected the ridiculous rally we've seen since then, but still...  quote:TSLA is my new NFLX ... at least I've got TTWO's love to keep me warm at night.
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May 14, 2013 16:39
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Eh, I mean TSLA right now is in this perfect storm so don't let it bother you too much.. anyone who didn't sell like 2 hours ago is simiarly . I mean gently caress, I was happy selling my $75 Jan 2014s for 16.80. That is until I saw them go up to 23.80.  Granted, I bought some shares after I sold my calls because I was like "well, I still want to be involved, but I HAVE TO BANK THIS." It sucks but it was still a prudent thing overall. Also these were for JANUARY 2014s! Anyone who bought options within a month or three are orders of magnitude more than I am right now.But yeah TSLA, well, it's turning profit (so I'm sure there's x investment firms that say "we only invest in profitable companies") right at this moment of ludicrous bullishness, and especially AMERICAN  bullishness (suck it EU and Japan), and hey here's a new momentum stock the whole AAPL crew can get behind. And the massive short squeeze on top of that, too. Like really, don't feel too bad about not being able to predict this. And this totally supersedes any conversations about whether it makes sense for TSLA to be worth this, because bulls are especially frothy for a place to put cash right now. Haha, this morning I was frisky so I put on some naked puts for V $180 expiring at the end of this week. Then V went from 177 to 181 -- literally instant money. Right now I am liking month-out naked puts on momentum-ish stocks (PCLN, AAPL, CMG, GS, MA, etc); obviously this poo poo is going to have to at least slow down soon, but I'm totally comfortable with that "we will go up or sideways but not down" trade. On select stocks I'll do some calls, nothing too nosebleedy though. And I'm definitely trimming my larger REIT positions to do this. Because yes, in some cases, 10+% annual yield isn't as much as what I could get. Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 16:59 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 16:56
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Arkane posted:I'd recoup cost basis and just hang onto the rest for the long term. The future is very bright indeed. I'm mostly just talking about short-term moves. I am super bullish and I even think this recent run-up is insane. I ended up selling it all at 96.2 plus some. Was going to right at open but it kept going up when I was trying to set a reasonable sell limit. I decided that I wouldn't buy this stock right now given that I think its rise is unwarranted, so that's why I sold it all. I'll feel bad if it keeps going up but at least I got something out of it, ~250% in just a few months. Anyone have a better recommendation than JNK for a high yield ETF? I'm open to non-ETF if it's not risky.
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May 14, 2013 17:14
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poopfart posted:I bought 1100 shares @ 18.23 this morning. ChubbyEmoBabe posted:Congrats to all of the TSLA bandwagoners! Have a feeling the next 30 minutes won't be so kind. Yeah but the last three years were. Nice call nub.
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May 14, 2013 17:28
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I bought some stocks in National Bank Greece (NBG). How crazy is that? Complete gamble but I don't think the Euro will let Greece collapse. I was thinking of buying NBG when it was 0.70 and now its 1.58. Someone tell me how crazy I am.
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May 14, 2013 18:00
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My trailing stop on TSLA just kicked at $85.47. Bought at $60.40. For a weeks worth of doing not a drat thing other than punching a few numbers and pressing submit a time or 2, not bad!
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May 14, 2013 18:02
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Mitt Romney posted:I ended up selling it all at 96.2 plus some. Was going to right at open but it kept going up when I was trying to set a reasonable sell limit. Wow, nice job! Amazing timing on that. I just managed to cover half my short at 86 for a meager profit. Going to try to squeeze out an 84 or 83 for the rest of it.
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May 14, 2013 18:11
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MrBigglesworth posted:My trailing stop on TSLA just kicked at $85.47. Bought at $60.40. For a weeks worth of doing not a drat thing other than punching a few numbers and pressing submit a time or 2, not bad! 
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May 14, 2013 18:32
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poopfart posted:Yeah but the last three years were. Nice call nub. That's about 7800 avatars you can buy for that guy now.
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May 14, 2013 18:40
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Turkeybone posted:e: Also TSLA is in USA Today, so now it's time to sell.
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May 14, 2013 18:41
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Josh Lyman posted:This price action on TSLA is crazy. I'm too drat scared to go long or short. You Only Live Once, Josh Lyman. On that topic, Tesla now has 26.5 million shares traded (larger than the day after earnings!), and has swung 20% today on 0 news other than an upgrade from Merrill. Pretty hilarious. Have a buy order in at 81.5.
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May 14, 2013 18:41
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I'm moving and I have a ton of trading books to give away if anyone is interested. I'm in the Montreal area.
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May 14, 2013 18:43
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Mitt Romney posted:I ended up selling it all at 96.2 plus some. Was going to right at open but it kept going up when I was trying to set a reasonable sell limit. Risk literally equals yield, so I'm not sure what your expectations are.
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May 14, 2013 18:43
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Turkeybone posted:Risk literally equals yield, so I'm not sure what your expectations are. For certain definitions if "literally" and "risk."
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May 14, 2013 18:56
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Feel free to keep long all summer. I started hedging last week which means the bull market will run through christmas.
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May 14, 2013 20:48
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Turkeybone posted:Risk literally equals yield, so I'm not sure what your expectations are. As in, nothing too risky. My statement was not meant to be taken literally and with strict interpretation. JNK's yield is 6% and I want a higher yield but I don't want anything insanely risky, maybe there's an 8% out there that's roughly around the same risk as JNK.
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May 14, 2013 21:24
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EVN @ 6.8% TAX FREE! Oh and it pays monthly, not quarterly.
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May 14, 2013 21:45
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Turkeybone posted:Right now I am liking month-out naked puts on momentum-ish stocks (PCLN, AAPL, CMG, GS, MA, etc); The old Victor Niederhoffer strategy. Not that I like REITs but holding them is far less reckless gambling than naked puts on momentum names. Mitt Romney posted:JNK's yield is 6% and I want a higher yield but I don't want anything insanely risky, maybe there's an 8% out there that's roughly around the same risk as JNK. What is riskier than junk bonds? Although there are plenty of MLP/Trust/Reit type stocks that payout 7% that would collapse just the same as high yield in a downturn while still going up from POMO flooding. I still say the best trading strategy is to buy SPY 7:30 (PST) and sell at close. POMO skimming has turned me into Pavlov's dog. My finger gets itchy on weekends at 7:30 now.
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May 14, 2013 21:45
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rouliroul posted:I'm moving and I have a ton of trading books to give away if anyone is interested. I'm in the Montreal area. I don't have PMs, can you shoot me an email at embrauer@gmail.com I'm curious what you've got.
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May 14, 2013 22:14
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