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MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Lord_Adonis posted:

That is certainly part of it, but Labour seem to be as evasive about these Brexit issues as the Tories (Without the antagonistic rhetoric of course).

Brexit is a huge point of division within Labour - 40 of the to 50 Leave and Remain constituencies have Labour MPs while the memberships skews heavily Remain. Talking about Brexit in anything other than vague terms is basically a losing proposition for Labour either way, hence the focus on good socialist policies to win people over, especially since the Tories are so abysmal in that regard right now.

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Kokoro Wish
Jul 23, 2007

Post? What post? Oh wow.
I had nothing to do with THAT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll4-Ihafp3w

HJB
Feb 16, 2011

:swoon: I can't get enough of are Dan :swoon:

sebzilla posted:

Also, apparently J-Corb just suffered a case of the forgotten figures on Women's Hour. Started to look them up on his iPad. How hard is it to have key information about the policy you're on to promote written on a bit of paper as an aide memoire?

If anyone wants to listen to this, they'll be playing it on the BBC News channel every 15 minutes.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

disappointed thats not the actual sky news youtube channel

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry
What are the news gonna be about this whole week? Pick carefully!

- About how Theresa May was absolutely terrible and hosed up every question even though they softballed her, like seriously that was a mess
- About how Corbyn did pretty good, nothing crazy but compared to May it was a world of difference
- About how Theresa May didn't know any of the five or six figures they asked her about, because they don't exist
- About how Corbyn didn't know a figure but was going to look for it

The answer is they're going to pile on Corbyn for the last one while ignoring everything else, because the media all loving sucks. Hope is a lie

Looke
Aug 2, 2013

Captain No-mates posted:

I suppose a performance like that is what happens when you have a coronation instead of a leadership election.

my man

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009
I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Oberleutnant posted:

I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

All I want for Christmas is a second general election of Corbyn vs. whichever loving mug tries to take over from weak'n'wobbly.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Oberleutnant posted:

I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

I'm starting to think she wants to lose. She knows she can't deliver on her brexit promises and want to leave labour holding the ball.

The Libearian
Nov 24, 2007
Return your books or face mauling

thorsilver posted:

No problem, I'm sorry I went off a bit there -- I'm very touchy about this stuff because I get a lot of poo poo due to my background, even though I've worked my arse off for the trade-union movement (as in: 4 years as branch president, presiding over the biggest strike turnouts we'd had in ten years, and two years of contract negotiations so stressful I now have permanent health problems). It's close to my heart and it's been quite painful so I tend to react aggressively.

To be honest I suspect my experiences and yours taken individually probably aren't representative -- in my case, most Jewish people I've met have been via the trade union work, both some reps and people I was hoping to recruit as members, and there I've heard things like people being afraid to talk about their heritage because of the anger about Palestine, and recently the Livingstone stuff didn't go over well. Most of these people are academics like me, so while a few were profs and thus well off, there probably is a general leftward shift there.

Got some more to say on this but being kicked out of my hotel now -- keen to pick this up later after my meetings.

Just wanted to thank the two of you for this. My experiences coming from an upper middle class background is there is a lot of tory support simply due wealth, with a definite influence as ronya pointed out from families who fled eastern Europe/soviet bloc countries keeping a strong hate for leftist thoughts.
Something I also saw a lot was friends who took an interest in leftist views like i did from my teens onwards ending up burning out due to a lot of anti semitism they encountered in leftist circles that tended to be dismissed as Jewish people equivelating criticism of Israel with criticism of Jewish people. Which I know drat well my dad's side of the family DOES do, but tarring any attempts to talk about anti-Semitism from leftists with that brush can be fsirly draining, particularly when hand in hand with the idea that we as a society have universally condemned antisemitism so it's "dealt with"
I mean I could go into details about the way anti miliband dog whistles vs the criticism under Corbyn were handled from both sides but I worry it might be getting a bit too niche and deraily.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames
This is so The Thick of It

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/869502097951248384

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Lord of the Llamas posted:

I never said a sample size of 500 was "bad", I just said it meant that there isn't a statistically significant shift in the Labour support according to the 2015 and 2017 results.

And that's assuming:


Which I think is a dubious assumption. Pollsters find it incredibly hard to correctly weight their polls for the UK national population despite having reams of demographic data and past polls and elections to base it on.

The main takeaway people should have here is that the binomial confidence intervals are the perfect case scenario in terms of accuracy and in practice underestimate the real margin of error.

It was you that brought up statistical significance (and I misread the tweet which did in fact say 13%). I haven't seen anyone suggest that individual polls are seriously meaningful.

Strom Cuzewon
Jul 1, 2010

I think there's a difference between "we don't know the figure" and "i don't remember the figure, it's here in my notes" but jesus loving christ he just crumbled there.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

C'mon Jezza get ya head in the game son.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Oberleutnant posted:

I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

I agree, but I think she'll 'survive' in the short to medium term, so as to let her be the one that takes the bulk of the flak for the inevitable clusterfuck that Brexit will be.

With a lower than expected majority, she will look rather weak and foolish, with her 'brand' ruined. So why not have her name be the main one associated with whatever unequal treaty-like agreement we are forced to eventually sign? That way someone can stab her in the back afterward, coming out clean by blaming her for it and pretending they would have been strong enough to get that mystical BEST DEAL FOR BRITAIN, while accepting it as a fait accompli.

This isn't to say that backbenchers won't be constantly sniping, raging and publically posturing over the next 2 years, massively undermining her: they will certainly want to establish their public Brexit credentials so that they look good for whatever post-Brexit leadership challenge takes place.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Oberleutnant posted:

I'm starting to get really interested in Theresa May's future as PM. Assuming she squeaks through the GE with a lower-than-hoped-for majority the entire gambit is going to look like a gigantic fuckup on her part. Her credibility on a personal level has already been shot to poo poo in the last couple of weeks, and in the futue we've got the Brexit negotiations, which aren't going to go well at all.

Will her backbenchers be prepared to leave her in place until 2021 or 2022?
Will May be prepared to resign if the knives come out, or will she force her backbenchers to torpedo the entire government and possibly force another GE in a year or two?

I just can't see her surviving as PM unless she somehow pulls a gigantic majority out of this GE.

A friend who works at the Home Office was saying yesterday that the general feeling there is she weathered the poison chalice of that job pretty well. I personally disagree with pretty much everything she did there but I suspect there is better support behind the scenes than you would expect given her awful ability to interact with the public.

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


May just made a joke along the lines of how Jeremy's aides put him in a smart blue suit for an interview with Paxman, but he would be left "naked and alone" when discussing with Europe.
She then said something like it's not an "image anyone wants to imagine" and got a chukle, then held and nodded at the audience, clearly hoping for a bigger laugh.


Also, I'm entirely certain that the majority of the discussions will be taking place with various different aides and consultants, not exclusively by the PM.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

https://twitter.com/jmsclee/status/869501791494447104

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

His Divine Shadow posted:

I'm starting to think she wants to lose. She knows she can't deliver on her brexit promises and want to leave labour holding the ball.

Joke's on her, the media won't allow her to lose.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops
God, I accept that that's a fumble, but christ, "Teresa May openly laughed at by the audience" didn't even ding in last night's news.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

knox_harrington posted:

A friend who works at the Home Office was saying yesterday that the general feeling there is she weathered the poison chalice of that job pretty well. I personally disagree with pretty much everything she did there but I suspect there is better support behind the scenes than you would expect given her awful ability to interact with the public.

A large part of this is that she was opposed by Yvette Cooper through most of her tenure, who let May get away with literal rape because Cooper wanted to be seen as tougher on crime than the Tories.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

spectralent posted:

God, I accept that that's a fumble, but christ, "Teresa May openly laughed at by the audience" didn't even ding in last night's news.

I think perhaps you've made too much of the laughing incidents. She wasn't laughed at by a crowd of undecided voters - a third of the people in that small audience had identified themselves as labour voters and presumably the heckling/laughing came from them, and only a handful of people actually did it.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Pissflaps posted:

I think perhaps you've made too much of the laughing incidents. She wasn't laughed at by a crowd of undecided voters - a third of the people in that small audience had identified themselves as labour voters and presumably the heckling/laughing came from them, and only a handful of people actually did it.

You have all the time in the world for everyone but Corbyn.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Regarde Aduck posted:

You have all the time in the world for everyone but Corbyn.

I don't have 'time' for Theresa May but pretending that a few hecklers in an audience is big news is just silly.


Edit:

Oh dear

https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/869511359058325504

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

ronya posted:

in terms of raw numbers irish migrants to england easily roll all over the others, even the great big muslim south asian demograpic clump

they don't organise politically as such

Well not any more anyway

Twas not long ago "the Irish vote" was still a relatively organised block that could swing results in select constituencies (Islington for example). There is a reason the Irish society is a distinct recognised affiliated society of the Labour party after all

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


Regarde Aduck posted:

You have all the time in the world for everyone but Corbyn.

It represents who he feels should be leading the Labour Party.

@pissflaps: wouldnt you expect that the third of the audience that was Tory would have laughed and heckled Corbyn, if the only cause of it was partisanship?

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
BBC news website leading with two links to the same story about Corbyn not knowing the figures. No mention of the Paxman interviews. Corbyn hosed up but this is a transparent hit job.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

mehall posted:

@pissflaps: wouldnt you expect that the third of the audience that was Tory would have laughed and heckled Corbyn, if the only cause of it was partisanship?

No I wouldn't expect it, but I wouldn't have been surprised if it had happened.

Don't Lol me
Sep 6, 2004


Regarde Aduck posted:

BBC news website leading with two links to the same story about Corbyn not knowing the figures. No mention of the Paxman interviews. Corbyn hosed up but this is a transparent hit job.

No, you see MSM bias doesn't exist, and the reason that people still think May is any good is because she is good.
*Checks newspapers and BBC*
Yep, definitely no bias there.

Funny, even farage can muster a compliment on how well it went last night, yet most papers and sites don't cover it at all, or say that May "won" somehow.

Looking forward to the handwaving from the usual suspects on how this isn't bias and is somehow CORBYN BAD.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Pissflaps posted:

I don't have 'time' for Theresa May but pretending that a few hecklers in an audience is big news is just silly.


Edit:

Oh dear

https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/869511359058325504

this is some tintower level posting

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Don't Lol me posted:

No, you see MSM bias doesn't exist, and the reason that people still think May is any good is because she is good.
*Checks newspapers and BBC*
Yep, definitely no bias there.

This doesn't chime with the glee at the bad press the Tory's election campaign has received over the last few weeks.

Is bias only a problem when we don't like the coverage?



Jose posted:

this is some tintower level posting

Emma Barnett is the person who interviewed Corbyn earlier.

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Don't Lol me posted:

No, you see MSM bias doesn't exist, and the reason that people still think May is any good is because she is good.
*Checks newspapers and BBC*
Yep, definitely no bias there.

Funny, even farage can muster a compliment on how well it went last night, yet most papers and sites don't cover it at all, or say that May "won" somehow.

Looking forward to the handwaving from the usual suspects on how this isn't bias and is somehow CORBYN BAD.

Um actually it was a draw and Corbyn did better than expected lol

*Theresa May doesn't answer a single question coherently, is laughed out of the studio*

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Pissflaps posted:



Emma Barnett is the person who interviewed Corbyn earlier.

its the posting tweets from randoms nobody cares or knows of

Kokoro Wish
Jul 23, 2007

Post? What post? Oh wow.
I had nothing to do with THAT.

Don't Lol me posted:

Looking forward to the handwaving from the usual suspects on how this isn't bias and is somehow CORBYN BAD.

No you see, he just needs a better media strategy

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


Pissflaps posted:

This doesn't chime with the glee at the bad press the Tory's election campaign has received over the last few weeks.

Is bias only a problem when we don't like the coverage?

The papers will criticise the tories when they cant praise them.
They'll near to never praise labour.

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

mehall posted:

The only cheers the Prime Minister managed on last nights debate was by repeating "No deal is better than a bad deal" over and over.
I don't share your confidence that a party leader discussing how Brexit could, in theory, be bad, would ever be taken well by hat portion of the populace.

What's great about this is how no deal is basically the worst possible outcome and nobody is calling her out on it.

"Give me what I want or I'll shoot myself in the face."
I suppose negotiating like a suicide threatening incel is a form of negotiation...

Don't Lol me
Sep 6, 2004


Pissflaps posted:

This doesn't chime with the glee at the bad press the Tory's election campaign has received over the last few weeks.

Is bias only a problem when we don't like the coverage?

Bias is a problem full stop.

Kind of like when you allude that Labour has had even handed coverage the last month, when really its been the Independent and Mirror being neutral (and occasionally BBC), and everything else is pro tory.

Just because May is so poo poo that even the tory papers occasionally criticize her, that doesn't mean that there is no bias for her.

You yourself admitted May was appalling last night, so where are all the articles about that? Why does the BBC have 2 pieces on Corbyn fluffing a figure?

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

His Divine Shadow posted:

I'm starting to think she wants to lose. She knows she can't deliver on her brexit promises and want to leave labour holding the ball.

The deadline for brexit as set by the tories is 2019, which would have been right before a 2020 general election, this snap election is just because by all evidence the talks will not have gone anywhere/outright failed by then and the tories would be dead in the water.

Having the next election in 2022 or since they're getting rid of term lengths, any time May feels like it gives the tories some extra time to get it done or at least 2 years to blame labour and immigrants for sabotaging the talks.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Don't Lol me posted:

You yourself admitted May was appalling last night, so where are all the articles about that? Why does the BBC have 2 pieces on Corbyn fluffing a figure?

What do you mean by 'admitted'? That implies I've described her in positive terms in the past, which is something that hasn't happened.

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Party Boat
Nov 1, 2007

where did that other dog come from

who is he


His Divine Shadow posted:

I'm starting to think she wants to lose. She knows she can't deliver on her brexit promises and want to leave labour holding the ball.

I think she knows Brexit is going to be an almighty shitstorm but believed her own hype and grabbed the opportunity to lock in a huge majority until 2022. The only problem with the plan is she's poo poo. Its saving grace is that Labour are pretty poo poo too, despite the Corbster improving a bit recently.

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