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Falstaff
Apr 27, 2008

I have a kind of alacrity in sinking.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Did he take a pay cut? Do you think he's breaking 200k?

No idea what he's making, but I do know he was offered more to take a job in Australia. He wanted to move back to Canada instead, which I understand. Vancouver is a beautiful city if you can manage the living costs.

I just don't get why he'd buy a house there, and why now of all times.

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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Well, my friend just bought a $350k 3br house in St. Albert, Edmonton. The guy bought it 5 years ago at $380 along with 5 other houses and is selling them all and jumping ship. How hosed is my friend?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

Well, my friend just bought a $350k 3br house in St. Albert, Edmonton. The guy bought it 5 years ago at $380 along with 5 other houses and is selling them all and jumping ship. How hosed is my friend?

JBark
Jun 27, 2000
Good passwords are a good idea.

eXXon posted:

In related Oz bubble news, after a few weeks in Perth I've seen dozens of signs advertising huge office spaces for lease - anywhere from 3,000 to over 10,000 sqft, 5-50 parking spots, etc. Is this the future of Calgary/Edmonton or did Perth just go nuts building way too much office capacity during the mining boom?

The vacancy rate in the Perth CBD is officially 15%, though I've heard from realtors it's closer to 20%. And to really rub it in, there's more office space coming online this year than there has been during any of the past 20+ years. All the new construction was started a few years ago during peak of the iron ore mining boom, around 2012. However, it took so long for things to get finished that mining crashed before they were done. Commercial rents are down 20% from the peak, and they're expected to continue falling for at least the next couple years. The vacancy rate is expected to peak in a year or two. To contrast, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate in the CBD was 3% in 2012.

We just moved into an office in West Perth, and we're paying less per sqm than we did for out old office way over in the Bentley Tech Park. The new office included a complete remodel, moving walls, carpeting, painting, the works. I'd say the office building we're in is half empty.

The same is happening with the home market as well, just delayed. It's amazing how much rents have fallen over the past year or so, though you still find holdouts who think they can get the same rent they did a couple years ago. I was reading an article the other day, and an REA was saying if you're paying the same rent now as you were last year, you're an idiot. The places we tend to look at, like Leeming, are down a couple hundred/week in rentals, and for sale listings are 100k+ less than they were a year ago. Could barely find a place back then for under 700k, now there are all sorts of homes popping up in the 500k range and lower. YoY, listings are up something like 40%. Anecdotally, I've talked to people who are a bit more serious when it comes to housing than I am, and they've been offering 50k under list price just to gauge the market, and in every case the realtor has called them back to arrange a private showing. 2 years ago, they would have laughed and hung up the phone.

It's too bad I'll likely be buying a home in the next couple months, as I feel like the market has a bit more to come down. But it's hard to tell, as the government loves to prop up house prices, especially since most states here don't have property tax, they have stamp duty, which is basically sales tax on a home sale. If home sales drop and prices go down, the government loses a massive chunk of revenue. Boggles the mind how stupid that sort of setup is, since it means a resource focused state like WA gets double whammied by mining and house revenue drops when there's a mining slowdown.

JBark fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Feb 24, 2015

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

triplexpac posted:

Sounds like he knows what he is talking about, he is a home owner after all

Ever-increasing housing prices can never fail; they can only be failed.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

tagesschau posted:

Ever-increasing housing prices can never fail; they can only be failed.

lol
http://business.financialpost.com/2...umbs-to-chills/

I like how they use a dumbass real estate lady as the article expert.

It's like asking a quack doctor if the snake oil cure they are selling really works all the time.

quote:

Hagerty said Calgary is a young city and many people are not used to the volatility of the oilpatch and its relation to the real estate market.

“So those of us who have been around for a couple of decades aren’t concerned,” said Hagerty. “We aren’t day-trading real estate. We get to live in this tangible asset as it grows in value. Savvy investors are sitting back hopeful the next seller will think the sky is falling so they can seize the opportunity. They know that Calgary’s a sure thing with strong fundamentals that make it a great investment.”

Campbell said real estate continues to be a strong long-term investment and income replacement.

“We have always believed that real estate is a safe long-term play. The numbers don’t lie – since prices have begun to be tracked, they have increased,” he said. “Of course we have seen short-term fluctuation with dips and corrections, but in the long term the arrow has always pointed up.

“Calgarians have hosted many an oil boom party in the past and have learned of these inevitable dips. However, because the province’s population, and the city itself, has grown at record numbers over the last two years, we have a large cohort of the population who have never experienced a Calgary ebb and flow. That has led to an increase in knee-jerk response in the market as shown by the dramatic increase in listings.”

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




etalian posted:

lol
http://business.financialpost.com/2...umbs-to-chills/

I like how they use a dumbass real estate lady as the article expert.

It's like asking a quack doctor if the snake oil cure they are selling really works all the time.

I said it before and Ill say it again, realtors have been pushing and preaching this garbage for so long that they themselves actually believe it to be true. To them they arent even lying or bullshitting anymore, its what they honestly believe.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Furnaceface posted:

I said it before and Ill say it again, realtors have been pushing and preaching this garbage for so long that they themselves actually believe it to be true. To them they arent even lying or bullshitting anymore, its what they honestly believe.

“We have always believed that real estate is a safe long-term play. The numbers don’t lie – since prices have begun to be tracked, they have increased,” he said. “Of course we have seen short-term fluctuation with dips and corrections, but in the long term the arrow has always pointed up.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

etalian posted:

“We have always believed that real estate is a safe long-term play. The numbers don’t lie – since prices have begun to be tracked, they have increased,” he said. “Of course we have seen short-term fluctuation with dips and corrections, but in the long term the arrow has always pointed up.

People often gloss over the fact that short-term in the real estate market can easily mean 5-10 years.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Someone needs to repost that list of situations when it's a good idea to buy real estate.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
GBS isn't entirely poo poo these days, found this gem in Toronto:





quote:

Towards the top you've got about a 30 degree slope. Besides the obvious danger of imminent death to passersby, there's the fact that the wealthiest condo buyers in the building, on the highest floors, get windowless apartments for half of the year. This was actually built in tyool 2014.

:allears:

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Rime posted:

GBS isn't entirely poo poo these days, found this gem in Toronto:






:allears:

That is incredible

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Jumpingmanjim posted:

That is incredible

condo includes a built in ski slope as a amenity.

Decoy Badger
May 16, 2009

Rime posted:

GBS isn't entirely poo poo these days, found this gem in Toronto:
:allears:

I work near that thing and about 3% of the windows have already been replaced with plywood. Plywood skyscrapers for the future ghettos!

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Decoy Badger posted:

I work near that thing and about 3% of the windows have already been replaced with plywood. Plywood skyscrapers for the future ghettos!

What's the plywood for?

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Rime posted:

GBS isn't entirely poo poo these days, found this gem in Toronto:






:allears:

How does that not violate some sort of building code?

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

Reverse Centaur posted:

My dad worked for EA Burnaby on FIFA and still didn't break 200k despite working 11 hour days.

EA is a notoriously bad employer and actually ranks as the most detested brand in America many years. That is really saying something in a country that is home to Comcast and Ticketmaster.

Decoy Badger
May 16, 2009

Jumpingmanjim posted:

What's the plywood for?

Filling a window-shaped hole for much less cost than actual glass. It's mostly on glass balconies since either they break more often, are made of shittier glass or people don't care as much.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin

Decoy Badger posted:

Filling a window-shaped hole for much less cost than actual glass. It's mostly on glass balconies since either they break more often, are made of shittier glass or people don't care as much.

:eng99: Windows keep the wind out, your living area warm, and also allows sunlight in. Glass is better at all of these than plywood. Balconies who gives a poo poo.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Like any of those people have the spare cash hanging around to properly maintain their apartment.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Decoy Badger posted:

I work near that thing and about 3% of the windows have already been replaced with plywood. Plywood skyscrapers for the future ghettos!

Doesn't really solve the problem of tons of ice and snow cascading onto innocent passerby, tho.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Rime posted:

Doesn't really solve the problem of tons of ice and snow cascading onto innocent passerby, tho.

It looks like it falls onto the roof of an adjacent building, however I doubt that was part of the safety plan when that building was designed. How does something like that make it from concept, to approval to construction without someone thinking about the fact it snows in Toronto.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Look you guys just aren't sophisticated enough to understand the intricacy, heritage and historical context of architecture.

Jan
Feb 27, 2008

The disruptive powers of excessive national fecundity may have played a greater part in bursting the bonds of convention than either the power of ideas or the errors of autocracy.

Saltin posted:

EA is a notoriously bad employer and actually ranks as the most detested brand in America many years. That is really saying something in a country that is home to Comcast and Ticketmaster.

This is very old news, EA has been demoted from "universally reviled" to "mostly okay, could push a bit less sports shovelware" after Riccitiello took over. Employment-wise, it's also considerably improved since the days of EA_spouse. There's still crunch but nowhere near as bad as it used to be.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report...?service=mobile

quote:


In many Canadian cities, unsold condos are stacking up

When the federal government tightened mortgage rules in 2012, overheated condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver were widely seen as the main target. But little more than two years later, it’s many smaller cities that are bearing the brunt of stricter regulations.

Winnipeg, Montreal and Moncton are grappling with a surplus of unsold condo units driven by a surge in new construction and a dwindling supply of first-time buyers in the wake of Ottawa’s decision in June, 2012, to limit mortgage insurance to amortization periods of 25 years or less from 30 years.

While deep-pocketed investors in Toronto and Vancouver stepped in to fill the void, the picture has been different in smaller markets where condo sales are driven largely by first-time buyers.

“It definitely had an effect on first-time buyers,” said Paul Cardinal, manager of market analysis for the Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

“What’s not really intuitive is that you would have thought the most expensive markets would have been impacted more than the less expensive market, but that’s not necessarily the case.”

The downturn has been most painful in Quebec, where the boom in condo construction started in 2011 and 2012 as young buyers, armed with cheap mortgages, flocked to the housing market.

Roughly a third of Quebec buyers had taken out mortgages with 30-year amortizations – and that number rose to 40 per cent in Montreal, Mr. Cardinal said. He calculated that the change was the equivalent of raising interest rates by one percentage point.

Similar problems have plagued markets such as Moncton and Halifax, according to a recent housing market forecast from Re/Max. In Regina and Saskatoon, the number of unsold housing units hit a 30-year high, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation said, the majority of them condos.

Winnipeg has also seen a surge of new condo construction since 2012 as builders rushed to cater to new immigrants under Manitoba’s provincial nominee program and retirees looking to downsize and spend their winters down south.

Last year was the first time in 30 years that the city saw more multifamily units under construction than single-family homes. The level of unsold inventory has been rising, as have rental vacancy rates, sparking concerns about overbuilding. “That’s something we’re keeping an eye on,” said Dianne Himbeault, CMHC senior market analyst. “At this point levels are above the five-year average in terms of completed an unoccupied units.”

Montreal in particular has been grappling with a glut of unsold condos for the past two years as builders haven’t scaled back their plans in the wake of softening demand. The city had a backlog of nearly 3,000 unsold condos last year, yet condo starts in Montreal rose 19 per cent, defying analyst expectations for a slowdown in new construction.

There are now nearly 20 condo sellers for every one buyer in Quebec City and downtown Montreal, well above the long-term average, said Hélène Bégin, chief economist at Desjardins Group.

In Gatineau, near Ottawa, condo prices have fallen 14 per cent, as stricter rules and federal government job cuts have sapped the confidence of new buyers.

Yet despite a rising stockpile of unsold units, prices in Montreal’s condo market haven’t fallen, rising 1 per cent last year, in large part because developers are choosing instead of offer generous incentives instead of price breaks. “Instead of taking $10,000 or $20,000 off the price, they’re offering to furnish it with the whole washer, dryer, dishwasher, stove and fridge,” said real estate agent Mike Abatzidis of Re/Max Du Cartier.

Desjardins’ Ms. Bégin expects to see a slowdown in new construction this year if the city is to avoid a serious downturn in its condo market. “If we don’t, the adjustment will be just more painful,” she said.

Not everyone agrees. In downtown Montreal, a joint venture backed by Chinese investors recently broke ground on one of the city’s most ambitious condo projects, a two-phase, 800-unit project known as YUL Condominiums.

“This is a world-class city which is still not seen as a condo market,” said Steve Di Fruscia, CEO of Tianco Group, the Vancouver-based company developing the project with Montreal’s Brivia Group. “It’s just a question of time to get the local community out of the rental market and into [condos].”

So far the project is 50-per-cent sold, but Mr. Di Fruscia says he confident the city’s glut of unsold condo inventory is merely the short-term growing pains of a city whose condo market is still developing.

“We are very bullish on Montreal,” he said. “We think it’s a great time to plant seeds. We are very hungry for some more real estate in the city.”




tldr low interest rates, longer amortizations (which saved the housing market in 2009) but ended in 2012 has crushed demand for condos.

Credit and ease of financing has been the main driving force for this bubble, not beautiful scenery, nor economic growth, nor foreign investment. Some have contributed to the boom but contrary to realtor marketing systems, this bubble is being sustained by the greed and innumeracy of canadians.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

quote:

“It’s just a question of time to get the local community out of the rental market and into [condos].”

I don't really get this thought process. Who thinks "hmmm my current apartment is alright, but what if I could pay more and make it more difficult to move out? That sounds much better!"

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Why am I not surprised that a development company that is bullish on condos, in arguably the most overbuilt market in the country, is Chinese backed?

I wonder how long until BC gets an empty city built here.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Someone I know recently moved into that tower as a renter. Heat is busted.

It's disappointing we get dumpster tier build quality at luxury prices. I happen to love the St. Lawrence area quite a bit so it's very disappointing they're loving it up this way.

I really wouldn't despise this housing bubble if they only built these things properly instead of screwing them up the way they are. I don't trust any condos built after 2006.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I've got another friend who is renting a whole house for about $850 but she found a barely 1br condo that she says will cost her $800 a month, that's including "everything" except this time she gets to keep all that money rather than throw it out the window for someone else. I asked about transaction costs and future "special assessments" but those aren't to be worried about because they are "one time things".

It's amazing how people really only care about what their monthly cost is, anything else is irrelevant. They also really really really care about owning. There's still this idea that every penny you pay into your condo you will get back at the end, with interest. While renting is throwing your money away. Or they'll say "Well I might lose money on a condo, but I'll 100% lose it all on an apartment so why not take the chance for the same price?"

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Feb 24, 2015

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report...?service=mobile


tldr low interest rates, longer amortizations (which saved the housing market in 2009) but ended in 2012 has crushed demand for condos.

Credit and ease of financing has been the main driving force for this bubble, not beautiful scenery, nor economic growth, nor foreign investment. Some have contributed to the boom but contrary to realtor marketing systems, this bubble is being sustained by the greed and innumeracy of canadians.

Oh interesting G&M. Less than 10 months to change your tune

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Baronjutter posted:

I've got another friend who is renting a whole house for about $850 but she found a barely 1br condo that she says will cost her $800 a month, that's including "everything" except this time she gets to keep all that money rather than throw it out the window for someone else. I asked about transaction costs and future "special assessments" but those aren't to be worried about because they are "one time things".

It's amazing how people really only care about what their monthly cost is, anything else is irrelevant.

Or perhaps they just don't care. I've had one special assessment (which has improved the building immeasurably, so I consider it money well-spent) and I recently had to replace a toilet. These sorts of expenses are why I "have savings" and "earn money," they're hardly the end of the world.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

ocrumsprug posted:

How does something like that make it from concept, to approval to construction without someone thinking about the fact it snows in Toronto.

It's what happens when you buy an off-the-shelf design that was probably intended for Beijing. :smuggo:

Count Canuckula
Oct 22, 2014

ocrumsprug posted:

It looks like it falls onto the roof of an adjacent building, however I doubt that was part of the safety plan when that building was designed. How does something like that make it from concept, to approval to construction without someone thinking about the fact it snows in Toronto.

It's hardly the only building too. Toronto architects probably have an underground gambling ring to see how many Torontonian lives they can end.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/columnists/2008/03/11/nature_makes_fools_of_architects.html

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Rime posted:

It's what happens when you buy an off-the-shelf design that was probably intended for Beijing. :smuggo:

If Toronto is anything like what I've heard about Vancouver, city hall and building inspectors are too scared to ever say no to anything. Developers will sic a lawyer on the city if anything doesn't pass inspection and if there's any letter-of-the-code reason why that thing should have passed they threaten to sue for the lost construction time and damage to the building's reputation. So unless something is absolutely iron-clad not to code, they don't bother. With the actual design of the buildings though, architects and engineers carry huge insurance (one of the reasons architects are mostly all poor) and by signing off on their plans they are taking responsibility for the consequences. The city gives plans a look over, but rarely with their own engineers re-checking everything. They mostly just want to see everything is signed-off by the designers. In a case like this Toronto condo the city most likely has nothing to do with it, it will all fall on what ever engineer signed off on the math showing that those slopes and windows would be fine for the snow load.

Now if it was a Vancouver project and it turned out the building was designed correctly but an inspector noticed the windows were being installed sort of wrong but didn't report it due to legal fears, I'd believe that.

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




Baronjutter posted:

If Toronto is anything like what I've heard about Vancouver, city hall and building inspectors are too scared to ever say no to anything. Developers will sic a lawyer on the city if anything doesn't pass inspection and if there's any letter-of-the-code reason why that thing should have passed they threaten to sue for the lost construction time and damage to the building's reputation. So unless something is absolutely iron-clad not to code, they don't bother. With the actual design of the buildings though, architects and engineers carry huge insurance (one of the reasons architects are mostly all poor) and by signing off on their plans they are taking responsibility for the consequences. The city gives plans a look over, but rarely with their own engineers re-checking everything. They mostly just want to see everything is signed-off by the designers. In a case like this Toronto condo the city most likely has nothing to do with it, it will all fall on what ever engineer signed off on the math showing that those slopes and windows would be fine for the snow load.

Now if it was a Vancouver project and it turned out the building was designed correctly but an inspector noticed the windows were being installed sort of wrong but didn't report it due to legal fears, I'd believe that.

This is how construction works across the country, and has worked this way since the 80s. :(

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Developer rear end in a top hat posted:

“It’s just a question of time to get the local community out of the rental market and into [condos].”

Yes, let's ruin one of the better parts about life in Montreal!

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
No poo poo. I once paid 550 for a studio.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

No poo poo. I once paid 550 for a studio.

There's no way a Vancouverite property developer is going to be able to comprehend that it's actually quite nice to be a renter in a market like Montreal.

Capri Sunrise
May 16, 2008

Elephants are mammals of the family Elephantidae and the largest existing land animals. Three species are currently recognised: the African bush elephant, the African forest elephant, and the Asian elephant.

Furnaceface posted:

This is how construction works across the country, and has worked this way since the 80s. :(

It isn't possible to have an external party validate every single stamped drawing without enormous cost (essentially redesign) for larger buildings. Those windows look lovely for aesthetic purposes in the winter but that slope is fine since it doesn't allow snow to accumulate to an excessive degree. It's more sound than a flat roof design.

The engineer incurs liability for structural issues, but if something looks like rear end? Not our profession's concern or scope.

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Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.


No comment necessary.

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