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indigi posted:for some reason I hate betting the under. win or lose, "no please stop scoring" feels worse to me than "yes please keep scoring" idk why I bet every Thursday Night under. I do a sidecast the entire game, so if it is going to be a poo poo game, I'd rather get paid. They hit on TNF more often than they miss, so season long I will be ahead. Season long bets unders have the most value, but I think overs are better for individual games because all it takes is one big play for it to hit. And if I'm going to bet on a random outcome, I'd rather find ones that won't have me stressing the entire game unless they miss
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Oct 26, 2023 20:14
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don't unders historically outperform overs by some small amount, like 53/47? I wonder what happens if you bet every under all season e: it's even smaller than that, slimmer than 51/49 indigi fucked around with this message at 23:24 on Oct 26, 2023 |
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Oct 26, 2023 23:21
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indigi posted:don't unders historically outperform overs by some small amount, like 53/47? I wonder what happens if you bet every under all season Yeah because human nature you don't want to look forward to "bad things" happening. The big place to find value in this is superbowl props
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Oct 26, 2023 23:30
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LionYeti posted:Yeah because human nature you don't want to look forward to "bad things" happening. The big place to find value in this is superbowl props correct--most people bet either heads or tails but it takes some real stones to bet on the edge
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Oct 27, 2023 03:46
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Spokes posted:correct--most people bet either heads or tails but it takes some real stones to bet on the edge Yeah but I haven't found a book that'll let me
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Oct 27, 2023 03:56
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LionYeti posted:Yeah because human nature you don't want to look forward to "bad things" happening. The big place to find value in this is superbowl props Please explain
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Oct 27, 2023 19:47
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indigi posted:Please explain Generally speaking for Superbowl player props, which are some of the few props that the general public really looks into and bets heavily, theres more value in the unders by and large.
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Oct 27, 2023 20:39
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indigi posted:don't unders historically outperform overs by some small amount, like 53/47? I wonder what happens if you bet every under all season Yeah, it is a coin flip. But with season long unders, injuries and outside factors make those smarter bets. All things being equal in a single game, I'm not worried about an injury. I just know that all it takes is one play for an over to hit, so I'd rather focus on that.
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Oct 27, 2023 21:38
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Bet on Chicago. Lol. Lmao.
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Oct 30, 2023 03:48
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Uggghh motherfuckin Chapman. Had a freebie $25 bet so I threw it on the rangers to win by 3 at +1000. It looked good for a long time at 3-0, but as soon as Chapman came out for the bottom of the 8th I knew it was doomed lol. 3-1 final.
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Oct 31, 2023 04:40
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SilvergunSuperman posted:Bet on Chicago. I bet against the Chargers. Same difference. I'm just annoyed my DJ Moore parlays against the worst secondary in football didn't hit because they just decided to keep throwing to Tyler Scott.
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Nov 1, 2023 02:27
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lol odds boosts
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Nov 1, 2023 05:37
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So wait was that -8000 boosted to +100? Sure proves the point to never ever touch those super heavy faves bets, imo, goddamn.
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Nov 1, 2023 08:59
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He had a few games last year where he didn’t make a 3 Pointer. I don’t think it should have been -8000 to begin with, almost has a “increase the price to mark it down on Black Friday” feel to it
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Nov 1, 2023 11:50
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Nybble posted:He had a few games last year where he didn’t make a 3 Pointer. I don’t think it should have been -8000 to begin with, almost has a “increase the price to mark it down on Black Friday” feel to it yeah last season he hit a trey in 65 out of 68 games, a fair line based on only that would be like, -2200ish obviously an odds boost will almost always be very +EV but it's always incredible when one of these massive favorites misses -signed, guy who bet the prizepicks zion o0.5 points promo in the game where his shoe blew out and he sprained his knee 36 seconds in
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Nov 1, 2023 17:14
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Spokes posted:obviously an odds boost will almost always be very +EV Please don't go forward with that assumption, I've priced thousands of boosts over the years and a significant number (>50% I'd say) of them are -EV. That boost looks like one of those new customer signup boosts with such an extreme boost, but definitely check that against a few other sources, preferably sharp, to see how it rates.
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Nov 1, 2023 17:17
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TraderStav posted:Please don't go forward with that assumption, I've priced thousands of boosts over the years and a significant number (>50% I'd say) of them are -EV. That boost looks like one of those new customer signup boosts with such an extreme boost, but definitely check that against a few other sources, preferably sharp, to see how it rates. that is wild--i had no idea, appreciate the notice. i guess it makes sense. anyhow to show that i've definitely learned my lesson here's my boosted sgp for tonight 
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Nov 1, 2023 17:37
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TraderStav posted:Please don't go forward with that assumption, I've priced thousands of boosts over the years and a significant number (>50% I'd say) of them are -EV. That boost looks like one of those new customer signup boosts with such an extreme boost, but definitely check that against a few other sources, preferably sharp, to see how it rates. Yeah, the 3 leg parlay boosts on FanDuel are absolutely designed for suckers. I've gotten better at setting up parlays that can give me a good enough hit rate to do well. I really do try to avoid parlays, but I am 4-12 on the season and turning a slight profit. One thing I always preach with parlays is to try to limit outcomes. If I'm doing a receiving yards bet on a player in a parlay, I want his receptions tied in to that bet because one outcome helps the other. But really, I'd rather just bet more money on the yardage prop.
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Nov 1, 2023 19:48
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Sataere posted:Yeah, the 3 leg parlay boosts on FanDuel are absolutely designed for suckers. 
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Nov 1, 2023 20:25
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Spokes posted:draftkings, too I still do every one lol. But I invest a very small portion of my bankroll to parlays because parlays are fun
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Nov 1, 2023 20:49
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Speaking of parlays, anyone use Underdog here? My state doesn't have legalized sports betting yet (NC - will be coming next year) and I messed around with the over/under pick ems there for a bit. Really didn't like being forced to choose players on opposing teams just to place a bet but maybe that's what keeps it in a legal grey area. I stopped deposting and decided to just wait until I can bet at an actual book next year anyway lol
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Nov 1, 2023 21:05
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it's upsetting but not surprising to learn that the parlay boosts are for suckers because 3-leg NBA parlays are how I tripled my bankroll (and have brought it back from the dead after an abysmal start at NFL betting). sad to know I'm not good at making them, most likely just getting lucky. I thought I had skill 
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Nov 1, 2023 22:39
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indigi posted:it's upsetting but not surprising to learn that the parlay boosts are for suckers because 3-leg NBA parlays are how I tripled my bankroll (and have brought it back from the dead after an abysmal start at NFL betting). sad to know I'm not good at making them, most likely just getting lucky. I thought I had skill Parlays are where I've made most of my money this season on football. But betting on 3 outcomes to happen is almost always a long term losing proposition.
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Nov 1, 2023 22:57
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Sataere posted:Parlays are where I've made most of my money this season on football. But betting on 3 outcomes to happen is almost always a long term losing proposition. There's a LOT of vig to overcome in parlays and especially SGPs to make them profitable. Usually the boosts don't cover it. That being said, I always do a 3 team spread/point parlay for my risk free bets. Over the long run I believe the math has the freebet conversions to come out to something like 72% of face. Y'all were asking me to do a write up of what I do, well, Captain Jack at Unabated made a really good video that hits the high notes so I didn't have to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQt2sq0_s64
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Nov 1, 2023 23:39
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Spokes posted:that is wild--i had no idea, appreciate the notice. i guess it makes sense. They’re all +EV when you hit 
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Nov 2, 2023 02:50
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 This is how you boost. It cashed.
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Nov 2, 2023 04:00
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Grats, first basket props are super interesting
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Nov 2, 2023 04:27
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I don't bet them usually, but have a half healthy DK that offered me a boost so found a first basket line that was better than everywhere else and hit that with some good short lines that met the requirements. With the boost, should be good enough to toss $50 at.
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Nov 2, 2023 04:55
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This means nearly nothing (except AI KNOWS ALL!!!) but on September 1st I gave GPT4 Data Analysis the MLB stats so far that year and did some crunching, and ended up putting $20 on the Rangers at +1400 because of what I saw in some of the charts. Pretty cool! https://chat.openai.com/share/4cc5f7f1-10ff-46fe-85e6-5ecf827870c4   
pzy fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Nov 2, 2023 |
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Nov 2, 2023 18:02
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taking Levis u201.5 passing yards tonight for the boosted DK bet--i think the line is higher than it should be after he threw for four TDs last week, this strikes me as a game where he hands it to Henry 30 times and throws it to the Steelers twice
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Nov 2, 2023 22:36
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probably a good bet, I don't trust a QB in their second start, vs Tomlin, on Thursday, in Pittsburgh, to fill out the score sheet
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Nov 3, 2023 00:13
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Takin loads of unders tonight
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Nov 3, 2023 00:25
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no unders refused
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Nov 3, 2023 00:31
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I don't even have money on it but I’m on the edge of my seat fingers crossed that they just pound the air out of the ball with Henry and the Steelers go on an 8 minute drive. no more Levis passes he's at 193 yards!!!
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Nov 3, 2023 03:47
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Fun sweat! I don’t think Levis has “it” but he outperformed my expectations and I’m excited to keep watching him
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Nov 3, 2023 04:32
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indigi posted:I don't even have money on it but I’m on the edge of my seat fingers crossed that they just pound the air out of the ball with Henry and the Steelers go on an 8 minute drive. no more Levis passes he's at 193 yards!!! I was a Levi’s under from hitting a $25->$400 play. I knew when the Steelers got the ball with two minutes left it was dead.
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Nov 3, 2023 05:33
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Imagine tailing goon bets! (ok I did it with a bonus bet, bye bye money)
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Nov 3, 2023 16:53
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Can’t-miss-double-super-magic parlay of the day Rams +3.5 Ravens -6.5 Vikings team total under 16.5 TB/HOU o39.5 Not a lot of particularly brave stances but I’ll take +1192 on it sure
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Nov 5, 2023 16:20
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Spokes posted:Can’t-miss-double-super-magic parlay of the day I've followed you on this for giggles
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Nov 5, 2023 19:18
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My apologies.
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Nov 6, 2023 01:26
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