|
I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before. To clarify, I get why Hamas does this politically and I also can understand why at a certain point violence like this seems like the only way of expressing any type of political will or desire to exist, but all I can think about is how empowered the worst loving people are now to go even further in their bloodlust. Again, I accept that on some level they were always empowered to do this and the feeling that the situation couldn't get worse, but my sense from Israeli media and from talking to friends who live there is that the reprisals will be significantly heavier than before and that the overarching lesson is not going to be "we need to change the situation in Gaza" but "we need to raze Gaza."
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 15:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 11:27 |
|
|
BWV posted:I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before. This is a great post and perfectly captures how I've been feeling. Side stepping the entire question of causation and right/wrong, the long term outcome is going to be a free hand to Israeli right wing parties and worse treatment going forward. Hamas seems so incredibly dumb in this whole thing. They fundamentally cannot win and apart from "losing" this is going to lead to even worse conditions and there will be no consequences for Israel, who are now the "sympathetic" party to the members of the international community in a position to do anything about it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:02
|
|
|
mannerup posted:Stating that it was an ‘inevitable consequence of material reality’ implies that the behavior of those perpetrating the murder and kidnapping of ravers is fait accompli. I think broadly painting a group of people as predestined murders and kidnappers of civilians ignores their individual agency in undertaking what is clearly abhorrent. Not just abhorrent, ignores Israel's role in promoting right-wing psychos like Hamas over secular/socialist parties with much fewer civilian casualties in their militant resistance. This isn't just what happens when prisoners break free, it's what happens when prisoners break free after the guards encourage the authority of "no-such-thing-as-a-civilian" religious extremists within the prison.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:05
|
|
|
I could see a rally around the flag effect for Hamas too, not just bebe.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:05
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:Hamas seems so incredibly dumb in this whole thing. They fundamentally cannot win and apart from "losing" this is going to lead to even worse conditions and there will be no consequences for Israel, who are now the "sympathetic" party to the members of the international community in a position to do anything about it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:08
|
|
|
smoobles posted:Largely the same things in my post, except rooted in misinformation and xenophobia. Right wing terrorists actually believe they're being subjugated and have no legal way to get their country back or make the 2020 election un-stolen. But this seems like a derail from the point I made. Your point was a collection of platitudes that avoids most of the difficult question.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:08
|
|
|
Palestinian armed resistance has always been centred on the theory that they are fighting a traditional colonial war of liberation against Europeans and that if they continue a long attritional struggle then it will go the same way as other colonial conflicts and the settlers will eventually decide the cost of occupation is too great and go home. But that fundamentally isn't the conflict that they are in. Worse, every round of violence only entrenches Israeli opinion that the only safe place for Jews in the world is in an ethnostate that represents them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:08
|
|
|
Sri.Theo posted:Your point was a collection of platitudes that avoids most of the difficult question. I will solve the Israel Palestine conflict later I got a lot of chores to get thru today.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:09
|
|
|
This is such an astounding victory for hamas that saying 'they can't win' is very out of touch, Israel was content 'mowing the lawn', now the lawn has teeth, Israel has been maintaining the border settlements with Gaza since 1951 pretty much, no longer will people be willing to live there, Israel has been selling to its people an illusion of 'hi tech security' and the ability to bring down Hamas with conventional warfare on a whim, that's all down the drain, pretty little lies. I'm really not a huge fan of the "it's more complicated than you think" talking point cause meh, it isn't really, people are people, but there is a dynamic going here that has been brewing since the first intifada and the oslo accords, a tit for tat where Israel has fooled itself to think it can determine the rate of escalation and whenever needed kill several thousand palestinians in gaza to keep things quiet, the game is different now. E; the joke among leftists now is that while people still talk about the IDF needing to re-capturing Gaza it took it more than 24 hours to re-capture Kfar Aza (Aza = Gaza, in hebrew). emanresu tnuocca fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Oct 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:11
|
|
|
Is it possible that Hamas did not expect such a big failure by Israel, and such a huge 'success' and deathtoll ? The only thing that makes sense to me that they were going to show how serious they can be, to get some concessions, just like in past attacks. But after what they 'achieved' now, I don't think Israel will go back to things as they were. I don't think there will be any cease fires this time - I expect war until there is no more Hamas, total blockade of Gaza. I expect cruise missiles through hotel windows in Katar or Teheran.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:11
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:This is a great post and perfectly captures how I've been feeling. Side stepping the entire question of causation and right/wrong, the long term outcome is going to be a free hand to Israeli right wing parties and worse treatment going forward. So nothing changed. There is a cruel irony talking about dead Israeli children when Gaza is basically an open air juvenile detention. Violence is necessary for the decolonization of Palestine. It is the only language the Israeli occupation understands. No one in this thread honestly believes Israel would give an inch of territory peacefully. Crocodile tears about Hamas, settler-ravers, children, etc. don’t change the fundamental situation that Palestinians day-to-day existence is one of violence and decolonization can only be achieved through violence.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:12
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:12
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:Hamas is likely betting that Israel's over-zealous response will eclipse the initial Hamas attack and further poison Israel's support among international publics. And they're probably right in the long run. But, then what? America is going to give a freer hand to Israel. Jordan, Syria, and Egypt aren't going to loving invade. Israelis don't loving care what other countries say, at least not the ones who are going to vote for Netanyahu. In the short run you know what people are seeing? The German tourist getting murdered, stripped, tied to a truck, and mutilated. This is going to harden support for Israel and by the time Israeli overreaction is documented most people will have moved on.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:13
|
|
|
Angry Salami posted:But it satisfies the bloodlust of a few people thousands of miles away on a dying webforum, so it's impossible to really pass judgement on whether the attacks are good or not. If it helps, not one person here is going to actually go do anything about this, so it's easier to cheer on a terrorist org from a cheeto-stained keyboard across an ocean than it is to actually go fight oppression in any sort of meaningful way. Armchair Che is adorable, but toothless, obviously it's easier to cheer violence without any consequence; the coward path.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
BWV posted:I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before. There will be no return to the status quo here. Status quo being Gaza as technically not occupied by Israel but still controlled by it. The blockade's goal was to keep Hamas from arming up and that has clearly failed. I think Israel re-occupying Gaza is possible. I think a mass expulsion of Palestinians is possible. Some sort of "temporary" martial law that ends up lasting a long while is possible. Pook Good Mook posted:This is a great post and perfectly captures how I've been feeling. Side stepping the entire question of causation and right/wrong, the long term outcome is going to be a free hand to Israeli right wing parties and worse treatment going forward. I don't think it is dumb by Hamas. Their power has been diminishing for years. In Gaza they are largely seen as brutal and ineffective rulers. Internationally they're a non-entity, with Arab nations making peace deals with Israel, effectively ignoring the whole Palestinian issue. With this attack they rally the population of Gaza around them-- whatever Israel does in response it will be on Israel's hands. Hamas at least tried fighting back, giving them credibility at home. Internationally I think this will at least slow down Arab-Israeli rapprochement. And it brings the plight of Palestinians back to centre stage in the eyes of the world. The hostages especially means that however this conflict goes, some sort of negotiation with Hamas will need to happen to secure their release, thereby maintaining some political power.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
BWV posted:I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before. If you put enough people in a situation where they'd rather kill than live, what happens?
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:16
|
|
|
mannerup posted:Stating that it was an ‘inevitable consequence of material reality’ implies that the behavior of those perpetrating the murder and kidnapping of ravers is fait accompli. I think broadly painting a group of people as predestined murders and kidnappers of civilians ignores their individual agency in undertaking what is clearly abhorrent. Is the group of people here Hamas, or Palestinians? Hamas has been pretty clear on their perspective regarding settlers (viewing them as legitimate targets), or is it the indignity of the particular video with the truck? I think duckman point was basically centered on that truck video in particular, that ultimately with an organization such a Hamas your going to get people who are there to express personal grievances. It’s hardly a condition unique to Gazans. Even the most professional armies murder and even kidnap civilians, let alone an organization recruiting in the dire condition Hamas does. As far as kidnapping, i think its pretty clear Hamas is doing it as a deliberate strategy. I don’t think they want them dead, at least as of now, as they had the full ability to kill them then and there. It’s seems they have a strategy in mind, I assume they are trying to be so provocative as to force israeli troops into Gaza. As well as use in prisoner swaps. Homeless Friend fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Oct 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:17
|
|
|
BWV posted:Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , Hezbollah and Hamas are not unified in any way, except that Iran supports both and they both hate Israel. They're not even the same branch of Islam. Hezbollah has not had any significant interaction with Israel since 2006, and they a major party to the maritime border demarcation last year (and they supported the agreement), which is particularly relevant since they control that part of Lebanon. Lebanese are broadly anti-Israel, but that doesn't mean they are particularly pro-Palestinian. Lebanon also has enough of a mess to deal with, and the current crisis is completely unconnected to Israel.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:21
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:22
|
|
|
Mean Baby posted:So nothing changed. And if Hamas mostly targeted military installations and kidnapped soldiers, they'd be in a better position morally than whatever this rampage was. Even if they herded civilians around but kept them mostly uninjured and leveraged them for negotiation purposes, it wouldn't be as morally reprehensible as this blatant violent action against any civilian they crossed paths with. This wasn't thought out with longevity in mind, it was a pressure release valve blowing and Israeli defense massively dropping the ball.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:26
|
|
|
ummel posted:And if Hamas mostly targeted military installations and kidnapped soldiers, they'd be in a better position morally than whatever this rampage was. Even if they herded civilians around but kept them mostly uninjured and leveraged them for negotiation purposes, it wouldn't be as morally reprehensible as this blatant violent action against any civilian they crossed paths with. This wasn't thought out with longevity in mind, it was a pressure release valve blowing and Israeli defense massively dropping the ball. If they would have only taken military targets they would have been exposed to artillery shelling and their entire offesnive would have crumbled. Hamas only have infantry, they are urban guerrillas.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:28
|
|
|
BWV posted:I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before. A theory: https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/1710583193466790254 Governments from Riyadh to Islamabad will all be watching to see how their people react if they issue a tepid diplomatic-note response to events, or refuse to walk back Israel relations normalization decisions that have been bubbling up in the post-Arab-Spring period (There's some amount of flagrant and yet relevant hypocrisy here of course: Pakistan just announced it will unilaterally expel 1.7m undocumented Afghans back to Afghanistan due to rising Islamic terrorism, for instance, channelling domestic resentment of the post-Taliban wave. It is hard to take righteous anger over a third as many people seriously in this context. This has real consequences - Pakistan domestically analogizes Afghans to Kashmiris, and the Kashmiri cause to the Palestinian cause; it matters to these countries whether surprise raids by small numbers of militants are a model to celebrate when the prospect is actually real.) My guess is that Hamas won't be able to slow the tidal shift in Islamic-world thinking that solidarity with Palestine (or indeed similarly-sized pockets of Muslim populations around the world) should no longer be their main rallying cause
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:28
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Hezbollah and Hamas are not unified in any way, except that Iran supports both and they both hate Israel. They're not even the same branch of Islam. Hezbollah has not had any significant interaction with Israel since 2006, and they a major party to the maritime border demarcation last year (and they supported the agreement), which is particularly relevant since they control that part of Lebanon. I was more thinking that this would be a longer term success for Hamas if it somehow got other groups involved to further make the situation in Israel for your average person more unstable, not that they were going to coordinate or were the same thing but I appreciate this distinction and should have been more clear. Stringent posted:If you put enough people in a situation where they'd rather kill than live, what happens? Count Roland posted:
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:29
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:
The sadder part is all the people in this thread defending this poo poo, like this is some sort of sports game to them. The right reaction to civilian murder, from both sides is horror, not "serves them right"...some of you are def on watchlists for a good reason
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:31
|
|
|
ronya posted:The world's largest internment camps for Muslims in a non-rhetorical way actually exist What? Even the highest estimates of Uighurs in Chinese camps don't come close, Amnesty says 1.3 million. Not that it's a competition or makes the Chinese camps any better, but the population of the West Bank + Gaza is above 5 million and Gaza alone is over 2 million.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:39
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:This is a great post and perfectly captures how I've been feeling. Side stepping the entire question of causation and right/wrong, the long term outcome is going to be a free hand to Israeli right wing parties and worse treatment going forward. They probably know there is no win condition here. Probably reasoned its better to fight back and die quickly than die slowly get pushed into smaller and smaller increasingly worser conditions. And the international community did gently caress all upto now are doing gently caress all now, apart from tut-tuting how terrible it is there, and will do gently caress all after.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:49
|
|
|
If your "right to exist" depends on the subjugation and oppression of another peoples, then...dunno, maybe your ugly apartheid state just shouldn't exist, at least in its current form? I support Palestine. F_Shit_Fitzgerald fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Oct 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:49
|
|
|
mannerup posted:Stating that it was an ‘inevitable consequence of material reality’ implies that the behavior of those perpetrating the murder and kidnapping of ravers is fait accompli. I think broadly painting a group of people as predestined murders and kidnappers of civilians ignores their individual agency in undertaking what is clearly abhorrent. It's not ignoring individual agency, it's just how humans work. In any population there's a subset who are more likely to engage in horrific poo poo if pressed. The harder you press the more likely that subset will react. A probably bad example might be US right-wing extremists responding to even the most feather light, not even 'oppression' with hate crimes. Predicting how they will act doesn't mean everyone in the christian American group are terrorists or remove their agency.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:56
|
|
|
AreWeDrunkYet posted:What? Even the highest estimates of Uighurs in Chinese camps don't come close, Amnesty says 1.3 million. Not that it's a competition or makes the Chinese camps any better, but the population of the West Bank + Gaza is above 5 million and Gaza alone is over 2 million. drifting off topic, but the Chinese camps are really camps, with rigid control over the timing and occurrence of events in each individual's day and individual communication with outsiders. 1.3 million is "enough"; randomly disappearing family members suffices to hold the other 40 million in sufficient obedience. and certainly not give the latitude to form governments which can organize militias and supply weapons, or raise schools with their own choice in imams and ideology the shift in thinking in Xinjiang amongst Chinese policymakers over whether compromise and easing of antireligious restrictions is "necessary" for peace is underrated, I think. China has proven that one can viably detain truly staggering numbers of people that they may recite Correct Thought every day, and that this is effective at maintaining the morale and confidence of settler populations at scale. It's successfully reversed Han emigration from Xinjiang. And other Muslim countries do not object; none bear 1990s-vintage post-Soviet thinking that China will find the nascent secessionism impossible to manage. this is really what the world safe for authoritarianism looks like, being that the competing ideology for many authoritarian states is not a Westernized liberalism but some domestic radicalism
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 16:59
|
|
|
social media is brutal right now, i keep seeing missing person posts and memorial stuff..the one doing the rounds of the girl who found out her grandmother was killed cuz the murderer that did it took her phone and then posted a video of her body on her facebook wall is roughhhhhh i'm hoping flights get less complicated so i can get my family member out, it seems like they are back to the 200 or so rocket volleys they always do instead of thousands like saturday so hopefully the airspace restrictions lift sooner than later if i'm lucky
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:11
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:16
|
|
|
mannerup posted:Israel's Defense Minister just made a statement, wonder what he sai... Are we absolutely certain that Israel won't use nukes? I'm loving terrified that they will considering these statements Willo567 fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Oct 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:19
|
|
|
So glad leftists went out to the streets to protest when Netanyahu fired that guy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:21
|
|
|
mannerup posted:Israel's Defense Minister just made a statement, wonder what he sai... The messaging over there is "buckle in for a long war"..we already know they are going to go into gaza, which they didn't do in the 2021 conflict. We know they are going to increase the blockade to cover just about anything, we know they supply 2/3rd of electricity to the region, and they have said they will shut that off as well. The questions remaining..will they reject ceasefire offers over and over and occupy again and drag this out as a show of nationalism (probably)..will Lebanon or more accurately hezobollah jump in (small possibility), same question for the west bank/fatah (less likely) Will a terrorist attack allow a right-wing government already attempting to tap dance into authoritarian territory the carte blanche to be even shittier under the guise of "safety"...that one seems like a safe bet
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:25
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Are we absolutely certain that Israel won't use nukes? I'm loving terrified that they will considering these statements I don’t think Israel wants to nuke itself.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:26
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Are we absolutely certain that Israel won't use nukes? I'm loving terrified that they will considering these statements Your balls are safe, nobody would be stupid enough to nuke something directly adjacent and downwind of them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:26
|
|
|
zer0spunk posted:. We know they are going to increase the blockade to cover just about anything, we know they supply 2/3rd of electricity to the region, It's already been cut as of yesterday. This will be hell for medical services, assuming any hospital is left standing after a few days. https://twitter.com/Israel_katz/status/1710695021769265450
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:29
|
|
|
zer0spunk posted:Will a terrorist attack allow a right-wing government already attempting to tap dance into authoritarian territory the carte blanche to be even shittier under the guise of "safety"...that one seems like a safe bet One man's "terrorist" is another man's freedom fighter.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:30
|
|
|
mannerup posted:yeah The U.S. would likely tell Israel not to use tactical nukes if they were stupid enough to consider it, correct? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 11:27 |
|
|
Willo567 posted:The U.S. would likely tell Israel not to use tactical nukes if they were stupid enough to consider it, correct? Yes, these are dumb questions
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2023 17:34
|
|