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Leperflesh posted:This post made me kind of curious. Do treasury auctions ever fail to sell out? If that has happened, has it happened recently? It happened for commercial auction-rates, a few TARP auctions, and to a couple of European sovereigns in the last few years (at least Greece) . Don't think it's happened to US treasuries, and don't think it will until foreign governments find another source of treasuries they'd like to consider their failsafe.
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Aug 20, 2013 22:04
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Leperflesh posted:This post made me kind of curious. Do treasury auctions ever fail to sell out? If that has happened, has it happened recently? The Fed has had the largest appetite in the Treasury market for some time now. It is no secret that the bond buying program equates the deficit. The smart money has been out of the market for a few months now. If you look at monthly volumes over the past few few years they have been declining for a long time now. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Aug 20, 2013 |
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Aug 20, 2013 22:07
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abagofcheetos posted:The Fed just passed $2 trillion worth of treasuries. What world do you live in where: There doesn't need to be demand for the treasuries on the Fed balance sheet. The Fed can stop QE and sit on their collection of debt for the next 30 years if they wanted to. The issue at hand is the supply of new debt versus the demand for new debt. As I have been saying for a while now, a much smaller Federal deficit alleviates a lot of that upward pressure on rates by reducing the supply of new debt which the Fed tapers its elevated demand.
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Aug 20, 2013 22:10
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Cheesemaster200 posted:There doesn't need to be demand for the treasuries on the Fed balance sheet. The Fed can stop QE and sit on their collection of debt for the next 30 years if they wanted to. Well yeah, if the US needs less treasuries to be sold in the future, it makes it easier for the Fed to taper, while still being the main buyer. But I don't really think relying on lower deficits is a great bet. My point to the $2 trillion was in reference to the Fed's buying not affecting interest rates (which I'm not even certain was an argument being put forth, after clarification). If they didn't buy those two trillion, who the hell would have? And at what interest rate? (also, it is interesting to note that the federal debt has been sitting at around $25 million below the legal limit since May)
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Aug 20, 2013 22:37
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color posted:How does that affect the interest Goldman is paying on the money it borrows from the discount window Goldman isn't utilizing the discount window, the amounts they did the handful of times they have are insignificant. The discount window has virtually no effect whatsoever on GS operations. The discount window isn't a free source of long term funding, it's a last resort measure for extremely short term funding to meet regulations.
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Aug 20, 2013 23:04
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mike- posted:Goldman isn't utilizing the discount window, the amounts they did the handful of times they have are insignificant. The discount window has virtually no effect whatsoever on GS operations. The discount window isn't a free source of long term funding, it's a last resort measure for extremely short term funding to meet regulations. How does that speak to the quality of Goldman's credit as an investment that they simply have the ability to do that it's not a growth play or a value play it's "holy poo poo Goldman's never going under, it's trading at a discount to its call value, pays dividends in arrears, good place to get some yield" look at my original post on the investment.
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Aug 20, 2013 23:16
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color posted:How does that speak to the quality of Goldman's credit as an investment that they simply have the ability to do that it's not a growth play or a value play it's "holy poo poo Goldman's never going under, it's trading at a discount to its call value, pays dividends in arrears, good place to get some yield" look at my original post on the investment. I don't really care about your investment in preferred shares, I'm just saying most of the other stuff you are posting is nonsensical. Things like: asking how rising long term rates will effect goldman when they can just borrow at discount window? Not understanding the recent rise in market rates because the fed hasn't stated the end of ZIRP. (While neglecting to mention that all of the FOMC members forecast that the fed funds target will raise in the long run, with the majority forecasting a rise by the end of 2015) From your posting it seems like you believe there is only one interest rate that effects the bond market, when in fact the entire treasury yield curve effects the bond market.
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Aug 20, 2013 23:24
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NFLX up 5.2%, opened BAC Oct 19 2013 15 Put last month at .70 and sold today at 1.20. Pretty good day.
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Aug 20, 2013 23:27
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It'll be interesting to see which side of this story gains traction: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/apple-ipad-s-china-market-share-slumps-as-samsung-tablets-gain.html On the one hand, iPad market share in China fell from 49% year ago to 28%. On the other hand, units sold increased 28% to 1.48 million, 2.6 times the closest competitor, Samsung.
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Aug 21, 2013 14:38
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After months of trying to discourage my dad from listening to newsletters about penny stock poo poo I gave in to let him lose money so hopefully he'll loving stop and listen to me. He's already down 30% after one day. Is there a better way to learn or do I just have to watch him throw away money once or twice? I was very tempted to tell him I did it but not actually do it - but on the off chance he would get lucky, I didn't want to have to give him my money and watch him throw all that away next time. e: His lofty goal was a 100% return because the guy said he's expecting a 700% return.
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Aug 21, 2013 15:01
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Shmoogy posted:After months of trying to discourage my dad from listening to newsletters about penny stock poo poo I gave in to let him lose money so hopefully he'll loving stop and listen to me.
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Aug 21, 2013 15:47
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TOO SCSI FOR MY CAT posted:Set him up with a virtual trading account. https://www.marketwatch.com/game is where I play around.
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Aug 21, 2013 15:53
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Shmoogy posted:After months of trying to discourage my dad from listening to newsletters about penny stock poo poo I gave in to let him lose money so hopefully he'll loving stop and listen to me. If he's trading PK or OTCBB, you can always throw out the 1 in 3,000 stat. On average, only 1 out of every 3,000 unlisted stocks will ever get uplisted to a major exchange. The rest go under. Tell him to read Tim Sykes if he HAS to trade penny stocks. Sykes runs a service dedicated to exposing pump and dumps while trading them on the way up and the way down. It's still a newsletter, but he seems to be on the up and up. But honestly, if you're dad is that clueless, the only way he's going to learn is to waste his money. And even then...
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Aug 21, 2013 16:34
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I had a friend who liked to mess penny stocks...you need to let them get burned so they learn the lesson. There is no better way to learn the ways of the market than loosing money. Stay away from penny stocks and you will make money! Trade high price, high liquid stocks or commodities! 
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Aug 21, 2013 16:46
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Shmoogy posted:After months of trying to discourage my dad from listening to newsletters about penny stock poo poo I gave in to let him lose money so hopefully he'll loving stop and listen to me. The post office is nothing but a middleman between scammers and my elderly parents.
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Aug 21, 2013 16:57
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Warm und Fuzzy posted:The post office is nothing but a middleman between scammers and my elderly parents. Yeah I feel like any penny stock talk should be relegated to the "people bad with money" thread. It's sad that people's hope that they'll get rich is more powerful than their fear that they'll go broke. When those scales tip, there's no convincing them. Look at lottery tickets. Despite well-known facts about the odds of winning, millions of people play the lotto every year. But it's not just in penny stocks either. Most investors convince themselves of all kinds of fictions in order to support the unwise decisions they make. Human beings as a species seem almost laughably incapable of being effective investors. The question is, what's the major fiction that most investors are operating under right now? I'd argue that it's the Treasury situation. Most investors are content to ignore it when they're not actively convincing themselves that ZIRP will last forever.
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Aug 21, 2013 17:33
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Don't fight the Fed.
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Aug 21, 2013 17:38
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Saw this headline on google finance and had to laugh. I also hear the sky is blue. "Fed Minutes Often Causes Stock Market Volatility." 
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Aug 21, 2013 18:44
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 I love this poo poo.
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Aug 21, 2013 19:09
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gently caress this, it's like sleeping next to a dyspeptic elephant.
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Aug 21, 2013 19:50
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I am cracking up at today's graph of the S&P 500.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:16
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YeahDavidLeeRoth posted:I am cracking up at today's graph of the S&P 500.  Gotta love the markets.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:20
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What's a good place to find charts? Right now my parents use www.freestockcharts.com, but I'd rather have something a little more sophisticated than that. What do you guys use? edit: Also, what's the deal with mutual funds? How do they compare to index funds? Are they recommended? Pollyanna fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Aug 21, 2013 |
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Aug 21, 2013 21:32
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I like just straight up stockcharts.com.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:48
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Coo. I'll use that from now on. Also, I looked into that guy's technical analysis methodology a little more... He's basically saying "look out for these patterns, and buy/sell when they tell you to". Like, he says there's this pattern called a hockey stick that's apparently part of Eliot waves. It kinda looks like a check mark. What you should do is buy right when the check mark starts to turn up and sell right before the check mark ends or plateaus. He also says to use stuff like the RSI and MACD to determine when the right time is (when the price is above the moving average, when the RSI goes below 30, etc). That's basically the entirety of what he teaches, buy low sell high but in very minute, regular market fluctuations. Does this make any sense? Is there something to this strategy, or is it part of something bigger that I should look at instead? Cause, I get the idea of buy low sell high, but I'm not convinced of how effective it is or if the effort to put in is worth the amount of money you get out. I don't loving know it's just confusing to me  Also, apparently it's significantly better than long-term investing because it "lets you catch the ups of the market without getting on the downs". I'm still not sure if it's worth it, considering that you only get relatively minor profits and you need a shitload of money to begin with in order to make any decent gains off of it.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:56
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Pollyanna posted:Coo. I'll use that from now on. Also, I looked into that guy's technical analysis methodology a little more... I really don't like that your parents are putting you under a lot of pressure to make FREE MONEY being a technical trader. Practically speaking, it's a very unrealistic expectation. No matter how much you learn from books, it takes some experience to do well at it. Emotionally speaking, that's some high-pressure parenting and neither you nor them are going to be a happy person  But basically, technical indicators are pretty helpful (though far from foolproof) in timing buys and sells, but you need to be able to find/pick a stock that is any good to begin with. Some stocks just don't have a big value story in front of them, maybe they're in decline or trading very sideways for a long time. The technicals might still give you a buy signal at the low point of a decline,, and a sell signal at the end of a flat period, and whoopdedoo, the stock is up 0.5% from when you bought it. If you don't combine technicals with some kind of idea of the overall direction of a stock (intuition-based, research/FA-based, whatever), they're not going to get you much. Trust me, I've made plenty of trades because "omg bullish crossover in the SSTO and breakout from VWAP average" only to see nothing exciting happen. Or maybe the signal was a bad one and the decline continued. Things can decline despite an oversold reading for a long time. It takes some experience, and eventually you might accumulate a list of "favourites" that have done well for you technically, but this will be a short list of consistent winners you've had among your many more losers, and then, IF the fundamental picture holds up in those stocks, you can continue to trade those tickers technically for a while and have a good time. Maybe. Basically, everyone here is telling you that you/your parents are expecting a lot from this, and we don't want to see you go down this road expecting awesome results and getting poo poo. But unfortunately, "some nice people on an internet comedy forum told me you two have overly high expectations of this" isn't going to work on your parents. So I don't know what to tell you. Just be careful I guess. edit: Serious suggestion, if you really want to make a living in stocks, get a job with an investment bank? Making your living purely from trading stocks is really really unlikely/hard. I don't think anyone in this thread doesn't have a regular paid job. alnilam fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Aug 21, 2013 |
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Aug 21, 2013 22:21
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If you want to start trading like that here is some information. A friend of mine runs a trading desk at a well known firm. His HFT programs refresh bids 40 times a second and they trade off of that information. That is what you are up against.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:30
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The only way I can get anything through to them is by understanding their intentions and expectations, trying to figure out what they've already been taught, doing my own research on technical analysis and daytrading, and explaining to them whether or not this method is appropriate for what they are looking for and why, as well as whether their expectations are too high. I'm not doing this just to be a dick to them - I have nothing against trying to make some money on the side messing with stocks. What I do have a problem with is running headlong into something before I understand it and taking people's word as gospel. I need to know if this is a good idea or not, and then I can explain their misconceptions to them. I just need to convince them that they honestly don't get it. They seem to think that daytrading and relying solely on technical analysis ("riding waves") is going to result in mad profitz, and from what I've seen of it the math just doesn't work out. Right now, I'm just trying to work out the technical, scientific side of why they're wrong. The emotional side I can handle later (not that I'm looking forward to it). evilwaldo posted:If you want to start trading like that here is some information. Well poo poo, I knew people used programs to do this. Now I know what they're called. And I had just finished up a proposal for making something like that in Python  Even more evidence for how unlikely it is to pan out the way they're doing it.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:38
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quote:Making your living purely from trading stocks is really really unlikely/hard. I don't think anyone in this thread doesn't have a regular paid job. Trading stocks is my regular paid job and I do quite well at it thankyouverymuch! Pollyanna, there's a whole host of reasons why trading on simple technicals doesn't work, often the margins on those types of trades, if the opportunities exist are pretty small which get eaten easily eaten up by slippage and fees. And if this is your current state of mind: quote:I don't loving know it's just confusing to me Best to keep it to simulations and spreadsheets until you have a full grasp on what you're doing with any real cash.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:39
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mik posted:Trading stocks is my regular paid job and I do quite well at it thankyouverymuch! This is exactly what I said to my dad and he said "it doesn't matter". I tested out their methodology on a sample stock, and at the end I had made something like 70 dollars off of $35k invested. Supposedly, it's 70 dollars within 5 minutes, but I'm not convinced that that translates to $840/hr. Plus, you aren't likely to have $35k lying around to invest in gold or whatever.quote:And if this is your current state of mind: Yep, that's what I'm doing. Thank you very much, VSE~ Although I did once consider asking for seed money just to see how I'd do on the actual market...good thing I didn't.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:45
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For all of you with dumb parents, just take their money and put it in an index fund and tell them you're the next Paul Tudor Jones.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:45
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mik posted:Trading stocks is my regular paid job and I do quite well at it thankyouverymuch! What I meant was, nobody here is a lone wolf trading their own capital, daily, in their pajamas (a necessary part of the career lone daytrader image!) and making a full living off of that. I know some of the people here work for firms and trade professionally, which is cool, but trading on the behalf of a big firm with lots of capital and support (and mentorship!!) is different from trying to make a living trading your own bank account, especially when it's based on a book you read. I could, however, see a career trader like mik quitting and making a living trading in his/her own home, if he/she had enough starting cash. Unless, mik, you really are a lone wolf, in which case, congrats and polyanna should know that that is very rare. edit: In place of pajamas, this is also acceptable attire for the lone-wolf trader 
alnilam fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Aug 21, 2013 |
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Aug 21, 2013 22:46
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^ Not enough wolves and cheeto dust  I'm tempted to shanghai their money and put it all into Vanguard.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:47
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alnilam posted:
There was a guy here who day-traded traded his own accounts, something to the tune of $100K + Margin. He had a huge write up I recall reading before the recession. One thing I distinctly remember he said is that he traded one of three different accounts with various sizes, 20K, 50K and 100K depending on the volatility of the day. Does anyone remember this guy? It must have been when this sub-forum first opened, or when the precursor to this thread was started.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:53
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Yeah.. my relationship with my dad is going to poo poo (not like it was all the great before, but there were a few good years) because he's so desperate to make money and now has started doing a lot of things without consulting me directly.. so my choices are, be forced to read 100 lovely hot tips from shysters and seeking alpha, or do nothing and watch him start trading earnings with weekly options . gently caress you! </e/n>. I guess I could always just change the passwords.
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Aug 21, 2013 23:06
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abagofcheetos posted:
this is what happens when not a lot of volume. could break youe neck in the whiplash
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Aug 22, 2013 00:48
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Pollyanna posted:Well poo poo, I knew people used programs to do this. Now I know what they're called. And I had just finished up a proposal for making something like that in Python
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Aug 22, 2013 01:32
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I was originally wanting to sell off my bond funds sometime next year and I made the mistake of not selling them in June. This exodus in the market seems to have driven prices down unreasonably low but it also feels like prices could be significantly lower by may/june next year when I wanted to use these funds for a down payment. It's not going to kill me with another few percent drop but ideally I'd like to preserve the capital (reinvesting the dividends) I'm not sure what the best option here is.
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Aug 22, 2013 01:38
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:this is what happens when not a lot of volume. could break youe neck in the whiplash Reminder: The smart money is on vacation this month
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Aug 22, 2013 02:35
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SplitDestiny posted:I was originally wanting to sell off my bond funds sometime next year and I made the mistake of not selling them in June. This exodus in the market seems to have driven prices down unreasonably low but it also feels like prices could be significantly lower by may/june next year when I wanted to use these funds for a down payment. It's not going to kill me with another few percent drop but ideally I'd like to preserve the capital (reinvesting the dividends) I'm not sure what the best option here is.
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Aug 22, 2013 02:52
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