Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

Not a surprise that real estate stats coming in out from Saskatchewan look like a disaster. I'd argue it looks much worse than Alberta

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/585436894873255937

# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:41

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# ? May 26, 2024 14:57

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Jumpingmanjim posted:

We've been trying to figure that out for the last 360 pages or so.

If you include the time I spent arguing in a long-gone CanPol thread to convince people the bubble was even real, it's been, what, four years?

# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:44

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Franks Happy Place posted:

If you include the time I spent arguing in a long-gone CanPol thread to convince people the bubble was even real, it's been, what, four years?

On that point, my brother, who usually trusts me on financial matters remarked this weekend "you know, you've been saying real estate is overvalued for years, and yet it keeps getting more expensive..."

What a run this asset class has had. I sure as gently caress wouldn't buy, but I'm increasingly in doubt that anything will change.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:49

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Lexicon posted:

On that point, my brother, who usually trusts me on financial matters remarked this weekend "you know, you've been saying real estate is overvalued for years, and yet it keeps getting more expensive..."

What a run this asset class has had. I sure as gently caress wouldn't buy, but I'm increasingly in doubt that anything will change.

That's pretty much the exact reason I came up with the Fat Guy Coronary allegory ages ago: I got tired of trying to time the bubble for idiots.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:30

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:44

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

following the timeline for other bubbles bursting that CI posted a few pages ago it looks like we've just started to enter the cycle, but who knows, every bubble can burst differently

unfortunately if you follow that timeline it's going to pop in the next year or two, not in the next 8 months which means whatever federal government gets elected by October is going to be hosed

Rime posted:

Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today.

well that's the beauty, he doesn't always post wrong stuff, or even weird stuff, it's just really hard to decipher

# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:45

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

What I got out of that hal-post was that Murray pezim is a captain of industry to be respected.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:56

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

less than three posted:

He's how we got the tag added.

Hal_2005 is basically a kyoon/zero hedge look at the Canadian economy.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 16:30

Seat Safety Switch: May 27, 2008; MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.; Pillbug

Cultural Imperial posted:

blah_blah, you might be pleased to know that hootsuite now has a 'data science' wet works type group.

At least that will give some of the Stats Can layoffs something to do.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 17:45

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Franks Happy Place posted:

That's pretty much the exact reason I came up with the Fat Guy Coronary allegory ages ago: I got tired of trying to time the bubble for idiots.

I forgot about this, but now I recall it from way back. Thanks; I'm going to use it in future - it's instructive.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:12

triplexpac: Mar 24, 2007; Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

up up UP!

quote:

Average Toronto home prices jumped 10 per cent in March, driven by a sharp rise in the price of detached homes to well over $1-million in the city.

Sales jumped 11 per cent in March compared to last year, the Toronto Real Estate Board said. New listings also rose 5.5 per cent, although it wasn�t enough to slow the double-digit price growth. Across the region the average home price rose to $613,933.

The price of a detached home in the city jumped nearly 16 per cent to $1,042,405 as the market shifted toward sales of higher-end homes, Jason Mercer, the board�s director of market analysis, said in a statement. In the suburbs, the average price of detached home rose 10 per cent to $709,116.

The gap between prices of condos and houses continued to grow in March. Across the region, condo prices rose 4.3 per cent to $372,827, with prices rising twice as fast in the suburbs as they did in the city.

With the region experiencing lacklustre economic growth so far this year (the real estate board cites figures showing employment in the GTA dropped 1 per cent in February) board president Paul Etherington pointed to low interest rates, which have softened the blow of rising house prices and helped fuel �a substantial amount of pent-up demand� in the market for low-rise homes, he said in a statement.

The Greater Toronto Area remains one of Canada�s few red-hot housing markets, behind only Vancouver, where sales jumped 53 per cent in March and the average detached home price topped $1.4-million. Meanwhile sales have dropped in oil-fuelled cities such as Calgary, Edmonton and Regina, while the housing market has also been weak in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Sales of luxury homes jumped 45 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 compared with a year earlier, said Toronto real estate broker Barry Cohen. There have been 279 homes sold above $2-million so far this year, compared with 193 last year. That included nine sales above $5-million, with the most expensive home, located in Mississauga, selling for more than $7-million.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:34

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Imagine how crazy the bubble will get when Canada cuts the main rate to 0%.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:55

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

I can't wait until I can actually be paid to borrow money.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:56

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

PT6A posted:

I can't wait to have to pay to have money in my bank account.

Adjusted for what will actually happen.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:00

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

In all fairness they should be paying people to live in provinces like Alberta.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:23

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

Xoidanor posted:

Adjusted for what will actually happen.

Two sides of the same coin. Lower interest rates are supposed to spur economic growth by making the decision to spend look better than the decision to save. In reality, it seems like the small fraction of the population with money to invest (mostly the rich and corporations) just chase returns by blowing asset bubbles instead of spending it. I'm not saying that lower interest rates do nothing (or conversely that higher interest rates would be sanguine) but it does seem that once interest rates get below a certain point, lowering them further doesn't do much because everyone with real money to invest has already gone elsewhere to investments that aren't strongly coupled to the interest rates that central banks can control in search of returns. Maybe this is stupid or crazy, I dunno.

VVV Fical policy I guess? VVV

MickeyFinn fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Apr 7, 2015

# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:25

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

How do you convince the people with money to spend it expanding their business in an environment with shrinking demand? The only time big players seem to touch their bank accounts is when they kick off another round of economic highlander that ends with a company being bought out and a pile of new people being kicked to the curb.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:39

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

It's pretty much why Japan is still in a stagnating economy. Despite all the QE and other central bank "cures", the economy didn't get better due to things such as japanese businesses not seeing a reason to do capex spending.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-japan-economy-tankan-idUSKBN0MS2X020150401

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:01

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

And unlike Canada, Japan has an actual diversified economy with export goods that aren't rocks and sticks.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:03

Monaghan: Dec 29, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

Sask housing prices.

I'm looking to buy a condo or something in the next year or two, so this is great news for me.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:05

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

QE and other tricks don't work effectively in running scared economies since it's the classic case of the cart before the horse.

Government assumes through things like low interest rates businesses will start doing more capex and other purchases. In reality in places like in japan/Europe the whole weak domestic and international demand instead means the businesses don't start buying big ticket items.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:08

Seat Safety Switch: May 27, 2008; MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.; Pillbug

etalian posted:

It's pretty much why Japan is still in a stagnating economy. Despite all the QE and other central bank "cures", the economy didn't get better due to things such as japanese businesses not seeing a reason to do capex spending.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-japan-economy-tankan-idUSKBN0MS2X020150401

quote:

Adding to the murky outlook, a separate private survey showed that expansion in Japanese manufacturing activity slowed in March as domestic orders shrank for the first time in about a year.

Isn't this exact article what the Japan thread predicted a few months ago, that this form of Abenomics "QE-lite" would be mostly useless in Japan because people will just take the money and sit on it waiting for the inevitable tax rise that takes it back out of circulation?

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:19

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

QE is seductive since it provides a "free" way for the government to fix the economy.

Much easier than trying to address structural problems in the economy or doing a Keynesian response to change the atmosphere of fear/uncertainty in the economy.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:25

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/

quote:

Banking city land in the mother of all housing booms

by Frank O'Brien, biv.com
April 7

Two of Vancouver realtor Michelle Yu’s clients flew all the way from Taiwan to give her a hug when she sold their Cambie Street residential lot for $4.3 million after other realtors had estimated its value at $1.8 million.

Yu, born in Hong Kong and educated in Toronto, is a Re/Max specialist in selling multiple adjacent residential lots – referred to as assemblies – in Canada’s mother of all housing booms.

By keeping acutely aware of Vancouver’s official community plans, forging close ties with developers and working exclusively for vendors, she is known for doubling the values of houses along the hot real estate corridors of Vancouver’s west side.

An example is nine contiguous lots she assembled recently along the south end of Granville Street, the airport-to-downtown artery. In July 2014, the BC Assessment Authority said the single-family lots were worth about $1.7 million each. Yu banked them into a single development parcel that sold this year for $33.4 million, or an average of $3.7 million per lot.

Doubling of values is common if a land assembly is successful, Yu said. Often, a block of Vancouver house owners will get together and agree to sell their properties as a single land play, she said. “Then they call me.”

Yu meets with her architect and city planners to ascertain the land’s development potential. She notes that the city’s official community plan is posted online so it is easy to determine if higher-density zoning is possible.

The official community plan, for example, may suggest the land could be developed to a 2.5 floor space ratio, meaning that a 10,000-square-foot single-family lot is suddenly 25,000 square feet of potential townhomes that can sell for $900 per square foot.

While the profits can be startling, land banking does present challenges, said Yu and other agents familiar with Vancouver lot assemblies.

Yu said the house owners have to wait at least a year as rezoning applications inch through the jam-packed Vancouver planning office.

While the homeowners can’t sell the properties in the meantime, they can reap even more money if the rezoning results in a higher density than was expected, Yu said.

Yu, who often deals with investors from China, said the majority of such buyers finance their Vancouver real estate through Canadian banks, even if they have enough cash for the purchase.

Mark Goodman, a principal at HQ Commercial, who sold a five-building city block in Vancouver’s affluent Kerrisdale community to a developer in mid-March for $26.3 million, said individual owners are not always on board with development plans.

Goodman is working with a developer on a controversial 11-lot land assembly in East Vancouver that shows how land banking is being done when there is “resistance.”

When some of the single-family house owners balked at selling into the land assembly, the developer swooped in to buy the two key corner lots, “which locked down the site,” Goodman said. The developer paid $1.6 million per lot, or about $600,000 above neighbourhood values. All the other owners then agreed to join in.

“It’s a gamble for the developer,” Goodman said, since city rezoning has not been finalized. Meanwhile, the two house owners that sold first continue to live rent-free in their homes while the rezoning process drags on. In other cases, Goodman said, homeowners who agree to sell as part of an assembly within a year can be paid up to $100,000 to remain in the queue if the rezoning is delayed. “And that is non-refundable,” Goodman said. Homeowners have also negotiated bonus payments of $75 to $150 for each square foot of density achieved through rezoning. “All that flows right back to the house owner.”

Yu, who has handled about 20 Metro Vancouver land assemblies over the past two decades, expects the exuberant pace of land banking – and price acceleration – to continue. “It is up and up,” Yu said, “for 10 more years or even more.” •

I'm actually very happy for the people that make out like bandits selling to these developers.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:43

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

etalian posted:

QE is seductive since it provides a "free" way for the government to fix the economy.

Likewise, jerking off is a "free" way to get laid. Then one day ypu wake and realize you've just been loving yourself.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:47

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

Likewise, jerking off is a "free" way to get laid. Then one day ypu wake and realize you've just been loving yourself.

That might just be the worst non-car related metaphor I've ever seen on this forum.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:50

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Xoidanor posted:

That might just be the worst non-car related metaphor I've ever seen on this forum.

Thank you.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:58

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/

I'm actually very happy for the people that make out like bandits selling to these developers.

Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them?

quote:

Yu, who often deals with investors from China, said the majority of such buyers finance their Vancouver real estate through Canadian banks, even if they have enough cash for the purchase.

This strikes me as really horrifying for some reason I can't put my finger on. :magical:

# ? Apr 7, 2015 21:15

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Whatever. That's 4 million dollars for sitting on your fat loving rentier rear end son.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 21:25

Coylter: Aug 3, 2009

Rime posted:

Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them?

This strikes me as really horrifying for some reason I can't put my finger on.

Wait does that mean we're giving mortgages to 3rd world countries citizens on the promise that they have money?

# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:51

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Coylter posted:

Wait does that mean we're giving mortgages to 3rd world countries citizens on the promise that they have money?

I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does.

How is a foreign national even taking out mortgages in Canada I don't even. This is loving stupid.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:56

Saltin: Aug 20, 2003; Don't touch

Rime posted:

This strikes me as really horrifying for some reason I can't put my finger on.

It's pretty simple. Why pay cash upfront when the loan is basically free. Zuckerburg took out a mortgage on his new place, for example. People who are smart with money know it's better to have it working in places that aren't your house.Only dummies tie up loads of cash in houses. That is what the entire thread is about right?

Saltin fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Apr 7, 2015

# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:57

Coylter: Aug 3, 2009

Rime posted:

I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does.

How is a foreign national even taking out mortgages in Canada I don't even. This is loving stupid.

But these are not insured by the CHMC i assume?

# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:58

Furcifer: Apr 20, 2007; It's Furcifer, not Lucifer

quote:

Yu, who often deals with investors from China, said the majority of such buyers finance their Vancouver real estate through Canadian banks, even if they have enough cash for the purchase.

Serious question - what happens to the loan held by the banks if lets say the Chinese investors bail? Can the banks go after their assets to repay the loan? Will the bank be on the hook? Or will the taxpayer through bailouts?

# ? Apr 7, 2015 23:01

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Rime posted:

Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them?

Yeah, she is the realtor selling 11 some properties along Oak Street. I guess it was option B, everyone wanting to sell in a block.

Real estate, the one thing where volume costs a premium.

# ? Apr 7, 2015 23:02

TerminalSaint: Apr 21, 2007; Where must we go...

we who wander this Wasteland in search of our better selves?

Today a coworker effectively told me that I'd be a fool not to buy a house now(here in Alberta), because interest rates are so low, and it's such an important investment. I smiled and nodded.

# ? Apr 8, 2015 01:07

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Rime posted:

Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today.

Not sure about the rest of his massive post, but his rundown of Vancouver development and urban design has no real basis in reality. The City of Vancouver is well aware of how important industrial land is and has done a pretty good job of maintaining industrial land. Yes industrial lands in Yaletown were turned over to residential development in the 90s, but they were literally in the centre of the expanding downtown core and there's obviously no real business case for keeping log booms in the middle of False Creek. The next nearest light industrial areas have all been maintained and they're doing really well.

I don't know maybe he's referencing some scaleback of industry in further out areas of Metro Van?

I don't get what point he's trying to make disparaging Vancouver's road network. Vancouver transportation planning is highly regarded and it's a model for NA. The City proper has no freeway, and has the highest level of public transportation commuters in the west by a wide margin 20% vs 16% Calgary and 15% SF.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Apr 8, 2015

# ? Apr 8, 2015 01:56

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

You can't even park on the street anymore because of all the goddamn bike lanes! War on motorists! :bahgawd:

# ? Apr 8, 2015 02:05

Throatwarbler: Nov 17, 2008; by vyelkin

Rime posted:

I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does.

This is an impressive level of ignorance. The sole raison d'etre of the Chinese army for the last 40 years has been to fight a probably nuclear war with the USSR, not to mention actually fighting the USSR in proxy wars all over the world.

Anyone can get a mortgage with 30% down (the norm in most of the world outside the Anglosphere).

# ? Apr 8, 2015 03:39

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# ? May 26, 2024 14:57

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Throatwarbler posted:

This is an impressive level of ignorance. The sole raison d'etre of the Chinese army for the last 40 years has been to fight a probably nuclear war with the USSR, not to mention actually fighting the USSR in proxy wars all over the world.

Anyone can get a mortgage with 30% down (the norm in most of the world outside the Anglosphere).

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but if not you should probably do a cursory fact check before tossing out stupidity like that. China was aligned with the Soviet Union, it is considered Second World in the context of those terms.

The USSR not having existed for twenty-five years is the only reason I'm assuming you made a bad joke.

# ? Apr 8, 2015 04:02

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