[Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

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Ardent Communist: Oct 17, 2010; ALLAH! MU'AMMAR! LIBYA WA BAS!

CN CREW-VESSEL posted:

This was true in the world wars as well, it has to do with exposure to shellfire.

yeah, big part of the disagreement between rommel and the rest about the defence of the channel was rommel wanted tanks close to the beaches so they could push them off in a landing, and the other old school generals wanted a larger reserve that could go to any beach and kick them off, and rommel thought with air observation, ship guns as artillery and (probably remembering going up against Monty in africa) knew that if they had to go a long distance they'd be under observation and at tremendous risk.

# ? May 13, 2024 01:21

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# ? May 27, 2024 10:12

VoicesCanBe: Jul 1, 2023; "Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

The two things I remember off the top of my head is when sanctions were coming in he was very confident Russia was finished because the price Russian crude had now fallen to a level higher than it was a few years before then, and about $5 less than US prices

And a different video from the time of the counter-offensive, when his reaction to videos of Russian helicopters blowing up Bradleys was, and I poo poo you not, "why do we believe Russia even has helicopters?"

Lmao

But he makes long PowerPoints so people equate that with genuine insight

# ? May 13, 2024 01:29

VoicesCanBe: Jul 1, 2023; "Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Regarde Aduck posted:

i've stopped trying to find their angle, i think they're just very stupid people providing a service for other even more stupid viewers

Perun, Michael Koffman, Rob Lee, and the rest of the big NAFO accounts, as well as all their viewers and followers, believe this stuff because they want to believe it. They're choosing to create an alternate reality.

# ? May 13, 2024 01:30

supersnowman: Oct 3, 2012

Starsfan posted:

I am reminded of an article I read last summer that talked about how the most dangerous time for Ukrainian casualties is when the soldiers are traveling to and from the front line.. once they are at the front they are actually pretty safe comparatively as long as they don't go wandering around the place above ground during the daytime (although apparently the night is no longer as safe as it used to be with the proliferation of Russian drones equipped with night vision cameras). So yeah even back then the military observers were talking about how the Russian goal was to get Ukraine having to shift their forces around from one place to another because of all the opportunities that created for the Russians to inflict disproportionate casualties on the Ukrainian army.

It probably also create chaos in the already stretched logistic lines.

"What do you mean the brigade firing 122mm shells is 200km north of here?"

# ? May 13, 2024 01:48

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

VoicesCanBe posted:

Perun, Michael Koffman, Rob Lee, and the rest of the big NAFO accounts, as well as all their viewers and followers, believe this stuff because they want to believe it. They're choosing to create an alternate reality.

Its gonna rule when these are primary sources for future western history books about Ukraine's reintegration into Russia

# ? May 13, 2024 01:52

supersnowman: Oct 3, 2012

tazjin posted:

Confirmed: https://tass.ru/politika/20775703

Reddit really seem to like the idea that this is to setup a fall guy to take the blame for failure.

# ? May 13, 2024 01:53

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

VoicesCanBe posted:

Perun, Michael Koffman, Rob Lee, and the rest of the big NAFO accounts, as well as all their viewers and followers, believe this stuff because they want to believe it. They're choosing to create an alternate reality.

Rob Lee is a guy who has routinely been accused of being pro-Russian or something stupid, because his estimation has been much more reserved and gloomy than many others. In part because he starts by assuming that Russians aren't a bunch of morons and recognizes that there is a lot of latent manpower, industry, and weaponry left over from the Soviet Union in Russia.

# ? May 13, 2024 01:55

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

Ardent Communist posted:

yeah, big part of the disagreement between rommel and the rest about the defence of the channel was rommel wanted tanks close to the beaches so they could push them off in a landing, and the other old school generals wanted a larger reserve that could go to any beach and kick them off, and rommel thought with air observation, ship guns as artillery and (probably remembering going up against Monty in africa) knew that if they had to go a long distance they'd be under observation and at tremendous risk.

That was definitely a dilemma that didn't really have a solution, either the tanks are close to the beaches but spread out and defeated piecemeal or they are held in a powerful reserve but are unable to counter the invasion force because they are unable to move when push came to shove .

# ? May 13, 2024 02:01

Cheatum the Evil Midget: Sep 11, 2000; I COULDN'T BACK UP ANY OF MY ARGUEMENTS, IGNORE ME PLEASE.

The Much-Battered Enemy Continues His Cowardly Advance

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? May 13, 2024 04:08

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

80,000 soldiers and 800 tanks? Russia is done for!

# ? May 13, 2024 04:26

bedpan: Apr 23, 2008

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

The Much-Battered Enemy Continues His Cowardly Advance

tankie lies. the russians have long since run out of tanks

# ? May 13, 2024 04:27

fizziester: Dec 21, 2023

Source: Ukrainska Pravda

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/12/7455413/

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief calls situation in Kharkiv Oblast "significantly aggravated"
ROMAN PETRENKO � SUNDAY, 12 MAY 2024, 13:18

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi asserted that the Ukrainian army is aware of the Russians� plans and responds flexibly to all their operations, but described the situation in the Kharkiv Oblast as "significantly aggravated".

Source: Syrskyi on Telegram

Quote: "We are aware of the enemy's plans and can respond flexibly to all of his actions. To reinforce the defence, all required measures are implemented, and decisions, including personnel ones, are made quickly.

This week, the situation in Kharkiv Oblast deteriorated substantially. Currently, there are continuing battles along the state's border with Russia.

The situation is challenging, but the Defence Forces are doing everything possible to maintain defensive lines and positions, resulting in defeat for the adversary."

Details: According to Syrskyi, fierce clashes continue on the Kupiansk, Siversk, Lyman, and Pokrovsk fronts, and the situation is changing extremely quickly.

On the Kramatorsk front, the Russians do not cease their attempts to conquer Chasiv Yar and instead continue offensive operations east of there. They are attempting to regain lost ground near Klishchiivka, but failing.

In addition, the Commander-in-Chief stated that the rotation of units for the remainder of the personnel, as well as the restoration of brigade combat capacity, are still underway.

Background:

On 10 May, it was reported that Russian forces had intensified their activities in Kharkiv Oblast, with fighting taking place there.

Ukraine's Defence Ministry reported that reserve units had been sent to the north of Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces resumed assault operations near the village of Hlyboke in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 11 May, and Ukraine�s Defence Forces are expecting the Russians to ramp up shelling in the area.

The Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group has said that the grey zone in Kharkiv Oblast was not expanding and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were not letting Russian forces advance further into Kharkiv Oblast.

DeepState analysts have noted that Russian troops seized six more settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.

# ? May 13, 2024 04:28

supersnowman: Oct 3, 2012

fizziester posted:

Source: Ukrainska Pravda
The Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group has said that the grey zone in Kharkiv Oblast was not expanding and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were not letting Russian forces advance further into Kharkiv Oblast.

DeepState analysts have noted that Russian troops seized six more settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.

I need someone with better understanding of military affairs to explain this one to me.

# ? May 13, 2024 04:39

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

800,000 soldiers and 8,000 tanks!? Russia is done for!

# ? May 13, 2024 04:45

Officer Sandvich: Feb 14, 2010

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/11/victoria-nuland-state-department-diplomat-interview-00157408

She Was at the Top of the State Department. Now She�s Ready to Talk.

As Victoria Nuland steps down, she gets real about a world on fire.

quote:

How�s life on the outside?

Life is wonderful. I am doing a lot of projects that I had put off, seeing a lot of people that I love, and I�m staying involved in ways that are meaningful. I�m speaking on foreign policy issues I care about � whether it is Ukraine or ensuring that the United States leads strongly in the world. I�m getting a chance to prepare for my classes in the fall and work with the next generation of foreign policy leaders. I�ll be at Columbia�s School of International and Public Affairs.

[....]

Do you have any regrets from your time in the role?

I think whenever you finish a job like this, you wish you�d been able to do more on more issues. Travel more, touch more people, get more done faster, ensure the U.S. was leading strongly on as many continents as possible, mentor more of the next generation. And you�re always constrained by time, by resources, by the crises that overwhelm the inbox. So you always want to have done more.

Can Ukraine win this war against Russia? And how do you define winning?

Let�s start with the fact that Putin has already failed in his objective. He wanted to flatten Ukraine. He wanted to ensure that they had no sovereignty, independence, agency, no democratic future � because a democratic Ukraine, a European Ukraine, is a threat to his model for Russia, among other things, and because it�s the first building block for his larger territorial ambitions.

Can Ukraine succeed? Absolutely. Can Ukraine come out of this more sovereign, more economically independent, stronger, more European than it is now? Absolutely. And I think it will. But we�ve got to stay with it. We�ve got to make sure our allies stay with it.

And we have to accelerate a lot of the initiatives that were in the supplemental, like helping Ukraine build that highly deterrent military force of the future, like deploying these longer-range weapons to strategic effect, like ensuring that the critical infrastructure and the energy sector are protected, like building up our own defense industrial base and that of our allies and Ukraine�s again, so that we and Ukraine are building faster than Russia and China.

But can it get all its territory back, including Crimea?

It can definitely get to a place where it�s strong enough, I believe, and where Putin is stymied enough to go to the negotiating table from a position of strength. It�ll be up to the Ukrainian people what their territorial ambitions should be. But there are certain things that are existential.

Any deal that they cut in their interest and in the larger global interest has to be a deal that Putin is compelled to stick to. We can�t be doing this every six months, every three years. It has to actually lead to a deal that includes Russian withdrawal.

Putin is a master at what we call rope-a-dope negotiating, where he never actually cuts the deal. It has to be a deal that ensures that whatever is decided on Crimea, it can�t be remilitarized such that it�s a dagger at the heart of the center of Ukraine.

Was it a mistake not to push the Ukrainians harder to go for some sort of negotiated end to the war in 2022, especially the fall of 2022?

They were not in a strong enough position then. They�re not in a strong enough position now. The only deal Putin would have cut then, the only deal that he would cut today, at least before he sees what happens in our election, is a deal in which he says, �What�s mine is mine and what�s yours is negotiable.� And that�s not sustainable.

You�ve had a long career, especially when it comes to Europe. Where did the U.S. go wrong in its understanding of Russia?

With regard to both Russia and China, after the end of the Cold War, the prevailing wisdom among all of us � right, left and center � was that if you could knit Moscow and Beijing into the open and free global order that we had benefited from for so many years, that they would become prosperous, and they would become strong contributing members of that order. And that�s what we tried for a very long time.

That works if you have a leadership that is fundamentally accepting the current system. But once you have leaders who are telling their populations that this system keeps their country down, doesn�t allow it to have its rightful place, that has a territorial definition of greatness, that is bent on economic, political and or military coercion � that�s antithetical to this order, and then our policy has to change.

Did we realize fast enough Putin�s ambitions and Xi Jinping�s ambitions, and did we do enough to ensure that those ambitions stayed inside their own nations and didn�t spill out and coerce others? 20/20 hindsight? Probably not.

How much of it comes down to what particular guy is running the show? I sometimes wonder, could things be different if it wasn�t Putin in charge? If it wasn�t Xi? How much of it comes down to the dude at the top?

In highly centralized societies, which both China and Russia have historically been, without an electoral refresh of the kind that we all go through in the democratic world, it matters hugely, because it�s that human who�s defining what greatness means. It�s that human who�s deciding how to maintain order in that society. It�s that human � allowing them to speak, allowing a free press, allowing protests, allowing alternative political parties � who�s going to shape the options. And that constrains obviously the kind of relationship we can have.

What is the lesson we should learn about foreign policy in general when it comes to the experiences we�ve had in Russia and China?

We should always try to talk both to leaders and to people, to the extent that we�re allowed. We should always offer an opportunity to work together in common interest.

But if the ideology is inherently expansionist, is inherently illiberal, is inherently trying to change the system that benefits us, we�ve got to build protections and resilience for ourselves, for our friends and allies, and particularly for those neighbors of those countries who are likely to be on the front line of that first push.

Where do you see the Israel-Hamas war heading?

Essentially, there are two paths on the table. There is continuing this war with all of the destruction and horror and lack of clarity about how you end Hamas� reign of terror.

The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.

[....]

If you could go back in time on that one, what, if anything, should the U.S. have done differently?

Beginning with the Trump administration, everybody fell in love with regional normalization as the cure-all for the instability and grievances and insecurity in the Middle East. And that�s a part of it.

But if you leave out the Palestinian issue, then somebody�s going to seize it and run with it, and that�s what Hamas did. I also think that both we and the Israelis knew too little about the terror state that had been established in Gaza.

You�re going to be teaching at Columbia, the epicenter of campus protests over this situation. If you could offer these protesters some advice as someone with significant policymaking experience, what would it be?

Peaceful protest is part of the fabric of who we are and the fact that we allow it, and the Chinese don�t and the Russians don�t, makes us Americans. But when that protest becomes violent, when it impinges on other people�s human rights or denigrates others, then you veer toward coercion.

So, express your views, ask for concrete paths forward. But stay away from violence, make sure that it�s actually indigenous to the campus, that you�re not becoming the tool of outside agitators. And be respectful of alternative views as you expect people to respect your views.

[....]

If Trump wins, and leaves NATO or limits America�s role in NATO, does the alliance fall apart? What happens?

First and foremost, America suffers. Because if you look at every single one of the challenges we have globally, even as we make the security commitment to Europe, it is the European countries who have contributed more to Ukraine � on the security side, on the economic side, etc. It is the European countries who have to adapt their policies toward China if you want to have an impact on China�s eagerness to coerce others. It�s the European countries who we need to help fund the Haiti mission, to help defeat terrorism in Africa, and provide prosperity.

If we are not part of that family, on a daily basis, we are standing alone, our own influence in the world is greatly reduced, and we have no influence over how they choose to spend their energy and resources. And they�re less powerful in doing it without us.

[....]

Does the rest of the world fear the United States?

Is fear what we want from the rest of the world?

Sometimes.

I think what we want from the rest of the world is they see us leading in a manner that advances their own security, advances their own prosperity, creates this community of nations that can handle global problems � whether they are terrorist problems, whether they are health problems, whether they�re environmental problems � and we do it in a primarily self-interested but unselfish way, and we�re creating that community.

They should only fear us if they�re opponents of a largely liberal democratic way of advancing human prosperity. And in that context, if they are viciously invading a neighbor, if they are coercing a little state because they can, then I hope they would fear our reaction and the reaction that we will build with other democracies who want to protect the system that favors freedom.

# ? May 13, 2024 04:51

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

Karach posted:

I legitimately can't find anybody who reads anything other than YA novels and gee-whiz pop sci in my area

"I have this really good book you should read. have you heard of Steven pinker?"

/eyes roll back in head

UGHHHHHHHH

# ? May 13, 2024 04:54

sleep with the vicious: Apr 2, 2010

A dangerously stupid person, and a lifetime bitch

# ? May 13, 2024 04:54

GoLambo: Apr 11, 2006

sleep with the vicious posted:

A dangerously stupid person, and a lifetime bitch

# ? May 13, 2024 05:15

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

I don't think the fate of specific villages is all that relevant for assessing the strategic or operational situation, it's like measuring progress in Stalingrad or Verdun by individual foxholes taken; a good flexible defencive line isn't going to contest every inch of ground, but will try to blunt an offencive while pulling back in order to consolidate and launch a counter offencive at the now overstretched and exhausted advancing forces.

Geography allows Ukrainian troops to rotate more quickly from one front to another than Russian troops can, so reserves can be placed between the two fronts and intercept where needed. So far, Russia opening multiple fronts hasn't given them any advantage compared to massing troops at one front and grinding away. The Russians are in this whole mess of their own making precisely because they stretched their forces too thinly at the start of the war and couldn't manage 3 fronts at once with the men and materiel they had.

It remains to be seen if Russia has the reserves to keep this offencive and axis of advance going if the oppurtunity presents itself and also still of course open if Ukraine has the mobile reserves to counter attack; we don't know and probably won't know for a long while. It has been reported that Russia has been recruiting between 20-30 thousand men per month in 2023 and continuing into 2024. So enough to cover their losses. The question/problem is Russia actually stretching their forces for this offensive (weakening other parts of the front), or have they actually built up that additional reserve corps they have been talking about for so long?

# ? May 13, 2024 05:15

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Nix Panicus posted:

I don't think the fate of specific villages is all that relevant for assessing the strategic or operational situation,

the fate of specific villages is in fact a relevant metric in any operational history worth its salt.

# ? May 13, 2024 05:30

Sanlav: Feb 10, 2020; We'll Meet Again

sleep with the vicious posted:

A dangerously stupid person, and a lifetime bitch

She'd rather have a nuclear exchange than revaluate things.

# ? May 13, 2024 05:54

ModernMajorGeneral: Jun 25, 2010

Officer Sandvich posted:

we do it in a primarily self-interested but unselfish way

??????

# ? May 13, 2024 05:58

Cool Bear: Sep 2, 2012

mawarannahr posted:

"yar" means is a root that is relating to cleaving in Turkish, with variations like "yarmak," (to cleave), "yarım" (half), "yarık" (crevasse/gap/slit), "yarak" (that which cleaves; vulgar: penis). is this from the Turkic yoke?

Behold, The Canyon Maker

# ? May 13, 2024 05:59

HerraS: Apr 15, 2012; Looking professional when committing genocide is essential. This is mostly achieved by using a beret.

Olive drab colour ensures the genocider will remain hidden from his prey until it's too late for them to do anything.

Some Guy TT posted:

theres just one thing i dont understand why do people from central asia want to back up putins war machine surely they must understand that once putin has conquered ukraine of course hes going to want to conquer their countries next

None of those countries are run by neo-nazis who would rather burn their country to the ground than get rich buddying up with Putin, dumbo.

# ? May 13, 2024 06:18

CongoJack: Nov 5, 2009; Ask Why, Asshole

fizziester posted:

Source: Ukrainska Pravda

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/12/7455413/

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief calls situation in Kharkiv Oblast "significantly aggravated"

If your oblasts are suffering from moderate to aggravated offensives ask your doctor about surrender.

# ? May 13, 2024 07:32

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

https://www.csis.org/analysis/back-stock-state-russias-defense-industry-after-two-years-war

Anyway, CSIS came out with a report last month that mostly more or less confirms what everyone knows. At a certain point, it is a bit weird that a think tank in DC is more or less is laying confirming what people in this thread are saying and you got the rest of the site sort of going off the rails.

Anyway, some sort of semi-interesting things in it: new T-80s/T-72s are confirmed are being built (new T-80 hulls also seem will be used as the basis for MRLS/TOS systems and SPG systems like the Koalitsiya) and Turkey has been playing both sides more than most think, a fair amount of military/"dual purpose" goods seem to be flowing either from them directly or through them from China. If anything you could make the argument that Turkey probably has done more to help the Russians than the Ukrainians at this point despite some weapon sales to them just by sheer volume.

Some controversial things: claims of inflation expectations of 12.7% by Russian business which is neither here nor there because it is is coming from a survey of expected price movements, while inflation itself seems to be coming around 7-8%. Otherwise, CISIS claims that the Russian are taking pieces out of storage for their barrels, which may be possible, but it very well may be also just they are refurbishing them and putting them out in the field as well. The report claims the Russians have 4,700 artillery pieces in the field which seems to be roughly wikipedia numbers if you include mortars. It is unclear how many D-20s specifically have been taken out of storage, which may be what is causing the gap seems the wikipedia doesn't have info on active D-20s.

They are also claiming about 2.2 million of specifically 152/122mm ammo being produced a year domestically. They make a big deal this isn't enough to satisfy their fire rate but they also have a entire section about importation from North Korea...which would fulfill that demand. Also, there may be some bottlenecks in CNC machines that is affecting civilian airliner production, it may be that they are being prioritized for military production at this point.

So in retrospect:

1. You have general consensus in the Western press and with most analysts that the Russian economy is generally doing well, with relatively high growth and record low unemployment along with middling historic inflation for Russia. There are supply shortages here and there not not seriously enough to affect the MIC or the broader economy.

2. You have major think tanks with CSIS among other outlets, confirming that the Russian MIC is in gear and putting out a ton of material.

3. You have the Ukrainians themselves fretting about the numbers of Russian troops in the field, fears at least partially confirmed by the Russians returning to Kharkov.

4. You have Western-aligned outlets like Mediazona saying while Russian casualties aren't insignificant, they are not nearly high enough to restrain the Russian military, especially considering points 2 and 3.

It still isn't enough to have a honest conversation about what is going on.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 08:13 on May 13, 2024

# ? May 13, 2024 07:48

Cheatum the Evil Midget: Sep 11, 2000; I COULDN'T BACK UP ANY OF MY ARGUEMENTS, IGNORE ME PLEASE.

Stop all the downloadin'

https://twitter.com/PeteLiquid/status/1789726972290949319#m

# ? May 13, 2024 08:18

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011