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JosefStalinator posted:
See, this is why I lean hum. Obviously there could be MORE dagger mechanics we don't know, but it would have to be a totally hidden mechanic because it isn't in Sandwolf's flip and YPM didn't seem to know about it either. Hum admitting to having the dagger is weird, but maybe that is just to throw us off. We would know SOMEONE had to have the dagger after the flips. Also hum's role seems MUCH more helpful for scum than for town. What could even have been stolen from scum that would be useful in helping us as opposed to a guy who could strip the multiple BPs away to open up more kills for the scum and whomever had the knife. Post-wise I have only looked back over Josef so far, and I am not getting very scummy vibes from their posts. Off to look back at hum now though.
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Oct 7, 2023 23:45
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Well hum, actually doesn't seem scummy at all in posting and was at least on the Zoya vote (I think) Also, Josef, did you ever claim your role?
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Oct 7, 2023 23:52
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Hal Insandenza posted:Well hum, actually doesn't seem scummy at all in posting and was at least on the Zoya vote (I think) I did, our claims are: JS - VTBP Egalz - VTBP Hal - VTBP Hum - Item borrower Cube - Messenger We know Cube can message, though that by no means clears them as town, and YPM confirmed that Hum is at least partially telling the truth re: being able to steal and return items. I don't see how Hum has the dagger without being the scum NK or covering for a scumrade who has it, based on the last few pages
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Oct 8, 2023 03:21
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Anyone have another explanation for HCT dying? I'm expecting to vote Hum. Best way to play around "scum might have a no-elim" is to get the dagger, if it's in Hum's hands right now, and try to knife (I still think it's EGalz) tonight. Ideally we could coordinate votes. About to head to sleep, but open to figuring things out tomorrow on timing, unless someone has a late epiphany.
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Oct 8, 2023 04:55
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I'm not voting myself. I'm firmly convinced Josef is scum and once I flip I hope you're intelligent enough to reassess your reads. I have done nothing this game but be open about my actions, vote scum, and share my reads about other players. Josef has constantly shifted who he finds scummy hour-by-hour while doing his best to only contribute to mechanics chat. He's consistently avoided voting for either of the two scum flips while voting out town all game. Also I stole a dagger from him somehow.CubicalSucrose posted:Pretty sure scum threw last night but it's unclear how much leverage Sand had over you. This is going to be extremely funny if there are still two scum and you end up throwing the game for us by stubbornly refusing to even entertain the idea that EGalz and I have not been conspiring the entire game (I don't even know how you cooked up this theory but holy poo poo have you dug your heels in about it). Unless you're scum with Josef. I guess that could be possible. It would explain why you can masonize.
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Oct 8, 2023 05:29
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Okay: Hum + EGalz: It's this, I think. Hum + Hal: How'd HCT die? Also, scumHal really had a BP? Hum + JS: How'd HCT die? EGalz + Hal: How'd HCT die? Also, how does Hum have the dagger? Also, scumHal really had a BP? EGalz + JS: How'd HCT die? Also, how does Hum have the dagger? Hal + JS: How'd HCT die? Also, how does Hum have the dagger? Also, scumHal really had a BP? --- I've validated that I can message everyone. If I'm scum, then you have to believe that scumZoya could only message and masonize Sand, PLUS scum also got a separate messenger role that could message anyone (and ALSO that Zoya's ability passed to scum team members?).
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Oct 8, 2023 05:37
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Why are you just completely ruling out that there could only be one scum left? This game functionally had 2 night kills every night and most people had 1-shot BP. It's not inconceivable that there would only be 2 scum and 2 3P (casting aside them being scum and town aligned for a moment). Like, if you're wrong about me but right about there being two scum we lose straight up. As long as you're ok with that, gently caress it go ahead and vote me. CubicalSucrose posted:
Scum have a juggernaut and the BP vests exist only to balance out the knife Sandwolf gave out. Ergo why the scum kill flavor has been destroying entire loving houses while the dagger is just a stabbing.
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Oct 8, 2023 05:47
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Mr. Humalong posted:Why are you just completely ruling out that there could only be one scum left? This game functionally had 2 night kills every night and most people had 1-shot BP. It's not inconceivable that there would only be 2 scum and 2 3P (casting aside them being scum and town aligned for a moment). I've been considering this. Zoya + JS, both jugg-lites. JS juggkills HCT N2. Last night: - Hum steals dagger from YPM - JS juggs YPM - Dagger kills Sand. - Since YPM is dead, Hum still has the dagger.
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Oct 8, 2023 05:56
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CubicalSucrose posted:I've been considering this. Let's assume this is true for a minute, and assume that JS has a 1-shot elim-proof absorbed from Sandwolf. If we try and vote out JS today, fail. Hum daggers them tonight, we probably win. If we try and vote out EGalz today, succeed, they flip town. Hum still daggers JS tonight. Can't kill us all, we win tomorrow. If we try and vote out EGalz today, succeed, they flip scum but game isn't over. It's almost certainly Hum left. If they can kill two of us they win, if not town wins. If we try and vote out EGalz today, they turn out to have a no-elim, we know they're scum. It might be EGalz + Humalong but we might not be able to win no matter what we do.
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Oct 8, 2023 06:01
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Been wondering why scumEGalz would sell out Sandwolf as the scum-leaning 3P. That had felt weird unless it was some very well-coordinated nonsense, or just general paranoia, or attempting towncred.
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Oct 8, 2023 06:03
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Mr. Humalong posted:I tried to steal from Josef last night and was told I am now holding a dagger. So my guess is Josef killed YPM. Er, order of operations.
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Oct 8, 2023 06:06
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CubicalSucrose posted:Er, order of operations. Mmm...Hum how does your ability work in terms of returning items? Because if you stole from JS, that doesn't seem to make sense. Like I'm following along here conceptually, but you having the dagger is really weird if you picked JS instead of YPM. Separately, in a world with 2 scum and they're both juggs, and the dagger just kills whomever anyway, then...your role existing at all is just really strange to me. It's like much, much worse than Shell's?
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Oct 8, 2023 06:14
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CubicalSucrose posted:Mmm...Hum how does your ability work in terms of returning items? Because if you stole from JS, that doesn't seem to make sense. Same with Shell's role, actually. Like...how does that benefit town at all, if scum can jugg through? Aside from trying to foil a mysterious knife that we know nothing about? Maybe the setup intention was "knifer public claims their target during the day, Shell shifts a BP onto that target?" That's awkward. And also counter to scum coordinating with Sand.
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Oct 8, 2023 06:18
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So I think it's probably still (Hum + EGalz) but I'm willing to entertain the possibility that it's (just JS). With either of these possibilities, the broad plan of voting EGalz today and having Hum knife JS tonight seems like it wins. Unless there's some as-yet-unrevealed wild-rear end role(s) that people have been hiding, which is always a possibility. It seems extremely unlikely to be (just Hal) or (just EGalz), though we're also covered in the latter case. I can't see a world where it's (just Hum). ##vote EGalz
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Oct 8, 2023 06:24
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CubicalSucrose posted:I've been considering this. This isn't possible - Hum claims to have stolen from me, not YPM. The steal explicitly goes before any killing action - if I was scum, how could I have the dagger before YPM died? CubicalSucrose posted:So I think it's probably still (Hum + EGalz) but I'm willing to entertain the possibility that it's (just JS). Not sure I agree - Trying to map out the setup, the non exe kinda fucks us if we mislunch today There's 5 alive, and either 1 or 2 scum left. If two, I assume only one of them would have the no exe, though that's not entirely clear in the flip. I'm also assuming scum has the dagger because how else can they get it, and no one is counter-claiming Hum. Unless there's an alternate explanation, this makes Hum scum. My assumptions: Scum Hum has the dagger One but not both scum has a no exe 5 alive, 3 town, 2 scum (1 of them has a no exe) We lunch the no exe scum, it's 3-2 town. Scum kill 1-2 (NK+dagger, though maybe BP's intervene?), it's 2-2 or 2-1 town, we lose. We lunch the executable scum, it's 3-1 town. If the executable one (egalz?) has the dagger, and we get it with hammer, we can win by stabbing Hum. If Hum has the dagger, we lose tomorrow or the next day. We lunch town, we lose. 5 alive, 4 town, 1 scum (has no exe) We lunch town - it's 3-1, we lose either tomorrow or the next day. We lunch scum (no exe) - it's 4-1, scum kills at most 2, we win 2-1 the next day. So if I'm mapping this out right, we have two winning strategies based on what you think of the setup: If it's two scum, we need to lunch the executable scum, and hope to get the knife. If it's one scum, we need to lunch the executable scum, and we win the next day. So if you think there's one scum left - we need to lunch Hum today, or we lose. If there's two scum left, its winnable if the one with the dagger has the no exe - and we correctly pick them. Bit of a WIFOM moment - did Hum claim dagger to get us off Egalz, or did they claim figuring we'd ASSUME that, and go Egalz instead of Hum? I say vote the scum hum, and hope they're either a solo scum with NK AND steal powers, or that the dagger gambit was a WIFOM misdirection attempt. 2/3 possible winning scenarios covered
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Oct 8, 2023 07:20
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I still need to read the last handful of posts, but I had a thought... IF Hum has the dagger... Does that now negate his item stealing abilities? It seems like he's only been able to snag/hold one item from a person per night Hum, could you clarify? Or see if TMor would be kind enough to if you don't have that information?
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Oct 8, 2023 12:14
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CubicalSucrose posted:So I think it's probably still (Hum + EGalz) but I'm willing to entertain the possibility that it's (just JS). Unless there is some sort of weird redirection role we haven’t seen any sign of it seems silly to vote outside of hum/Josef since they are in direct contradiction of each other. Or am I missing something? Maybe I need to double check sands flip to see if there was a way to misinterpret where the knife goes
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Oct 8, 2023 13:42
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Cube can you explain your exact role? I am reading back over your actions and it's a bit confusing to me - You can message up to two people a day, but you don't have to message both? - At night you can either message 2 people (or one) OR masonize one person? Is that right? Why did you not just mason people every night instead of sending a message some nights?
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Oct 8, 2023 14:13
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Hal Insandenza posted:Cube can you explain your exact role? I am reading back over your actions and it's a bit confusing to me 1) Correct. 1b) Replies I get are lagged a phase. If I message you D1 and you respond D1, I don't get the reply until N1. 2) I can only masonize someone who has responded to me 3 times. 2b) I can only have one active masonry at a time. See Zoya's flip, very similar. D1 HCT and Zoya. N1 just HCT (afraid of PGO because I misread Zoya's flip) D2 HCT and Shwinn. N2 Masonized HCT D3 Sand and Hum (I tried to send two to Sand to cut down the number of phases until I could masonize, but they have to be different people apparently) N3 Sand and YPM D4 Sand and EGalz N4 Masonize Sand D5 Hal and JS
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Oct 8, 2023 14:31
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##unvote for a second here
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Oct 8, 2023 14:43
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So here's where I'm at: First, I think I've gotten myself to a point where I think it's either (Hum + EGalz) or (only JS). There might exist cohesive arguments for some other scenario, but I don't really see them. Hal Insandenza posted:Unless there is some sort of weird redirection role we haven’t seen any sign of it seems silly to vote outside of hum/Josef since they are in direct contradiction of each other. Or am I missing something? Here's the reason why even if it's Hum vs. JS telling the truth, voting EGalz still seems better (because if it's Hum telling the truth and JS lying, Hum is able to dagger at night and win the game).  I think I would prefer me or Hal to hammer EGalz, which is going to be awkward from a coordination perspective, but gives us the best chances to win, I think. I also slightly suspect that if there was a choice, Hum would have taken the no-ex over EGalz given the almost-exclusive town-reading of EGalz until recently.
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Oct 8, 2023 14:57
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(I know the table has a whole lot more LOSE scenarios by voting JS, that's hard to "unweight" properly but there are just more possibilities to account for in that instance. I actually DO think it's more likely that it's [Hum + EGalz] vs. being JS, but maybe not 3:1)
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Oct 8, 2023 14:59
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What's your flavor and beauty level, Cube? Just for funsies
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Oct 8, 2023 15:14
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CubicalSucrose posted:So here's where I'm at: The problem with this is the scum kill comes before the dagger according to Sandwolf’s flip. So if we flip EGalz and JS is still scum, they probably just kill me tonight and the dagger does nothing. FWIW I asked TM a question about the dagger early on in this day and got no response, so I don’t think asking any further questions will get us anything. I’m at the hospital, have to go now. IRL poo poo don’t worry about it
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Oct 8, 2023 15:24
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Mr. Humalong posted:The problem with this is the scum kill comes before the dagger according to Sandwolf’s flip. So if we flip EGalz and JS is still scum, they probably just kill me tonight and the dagger does nothing. What we've seen (I think...) is that the dagger still kills the intended target even through being stolen (at least). This is what happened when you originally stole the dagger N3, no? Where YPM ordered the dagger to kill AFQM, and then even though you stole it, it still killed AFQM. So if you order the dagger to kill JS. JS scumkills you and steals the dagger. The dagger still is ordered to kill JS. It'd be an awkward suicide, but should still work unless I'm misinterpreting how this has worked in the past.
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Oct 8, 2023 15:37
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CubicalSucrose posted:Okay, good to know at least one of Sand and AFQM are lying. EGalz18 posted:What's your flavor and beauty level, Cube? If this is how I throw, so be it I guess. Paris 8. For a while I thought "Ah yes, the city of lights. Very beautiful." Then I confused Paris and Helen of Troy and was like "Wait if I'm just an 8, then..." Other historical things I (re?)learned this game. Heracles and Hercules, same thing (I thought this might have been Sand for a while).
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Oct 8, 2023 15:40
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CubicalSucrose posted:What we've seen (I think...) is that the dagger still kills the intended target even through being stolen (at least). This is what happened when you originally stole the dagger N3, no? Where YPM ordered the dagger to kill AFQM, and then even though you stole it, it still killed AFQM. It didn't though!!! AFQM could redirect. Wasn't BP. YPM tried to dagger them. AFQM redirected to Schwinn. We voted AFQM out. There wasn't ever a good explanation for why YPM was told their action was successful, unless it was considered successful because the dagger killed someone.
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Oct 8, 2023 15:48
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EGalz18 posted:It didn't though!!! AFQM could redirect. Wasn't BP. YPM tried to dagger them. AFQM redirected to Schwinn. We voted AFQM out. Yeah but that last bit is irrelevant So what happened N3, I think, was: - YPM orders dagger to kill AFQM - Hum stole dagger - Dagger (in Hum's hands, STILL ATTACKS AFQM AS ORDERED) - this is the important part - (Then, irrelevantly, AFQM redirects the dagger to kill Shwinn) The key bit is that the dagger still ATTACKED (not killed I guess, sorry for fast and loose language) its originally-intended target. So if Hum tells the dagger to "Attack JS" tonight, then even if JS kills Hum first, the dagger should still attack JS (and likely kill them).
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Oct 8, 2023 15:54
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Note the part in Sand's flip where the dagger-action is shifted in order to kinda mess with HCT's track.
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Oct 8, 2023 15:55
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Cube, if the concern is that it's either Hum/Egalz or me, here's an idea. To build trust I'll vote Hum now. I'd rather Cube be the hammer because he's my strongest town read - maybe Egalz votes Hum next, and one of the likely town (Cube/Hal) hammer? If I'm lying and Hum flips town, then you can stab scum me tonight and it ends in a town win. ##vote humalong
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Oct 8, 2023 17:17
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JosefStalinator posted:Cube, if the concern is that it's either Hum/Egalz or me, here's an idea. If you think it's Hum, then it's (Hum + Who else?). Not you, not me. So either Hum+EGalz or Hum+Hal. If you think it's Hum+EGalz then we should be voting out EGalz, per above. If you think it's Hum+Hal, then why? Hal had their BP taken away.
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Oct 8, 2023 17:55
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CubicalSucrose posted:If you think it's Hum, then it's (Hum + Who else?). In the scenario where I am scum, making sure Cube gets the hammer ensures that we win no matter if we vote Egalz/Hum, so I think it comes down to who you think between the two of Egalz/Hum has the dagger and no exe. If we lunch Hum a. Hum has dagger and no exe - 3-2 scum, scum kills 1-2, we lose b. Hum has dagger, Egalz has no exe - We get dagger, Cube stabs egalz, we win c. Hum has no exe, Egalz has dagger - 3-2 scum, they kill 1-2, we lose d. Hum has neither dagger nor no exe - 3-1 town, Egalz kills 1-2, we lose eventually If we lunch Egalz a. Hum has dagger and no exe - 3-1 town, Hum kills 1-2, we lose eventually b. Hum has dagger, Egalz has no exe - 3-2 scum, scum kills 1-2, we lose c. Hum has no exe, Egalz has dagger - we win (cube stabs Hum) d. Hum has neither dagger nor no exe - 3-2 scum, they kill 1-2, we lose So really, if Hum has the dagger and the no exe, it's effectively over. If Egalz has the dagger and the no exe, it's also effectively over. If the no exe and dagger are split, then it's winnable, but only if we make the right choice. If you think Hum has the no exe, but Egalz the dagger, then Egalz is the play. If you think Egalz has the no exe, and Hum the dagger, Hum is the play. There's also the possibility that Hum is solo scum somehow - maybe they can steal and NK? Maybe they powered up with Sandwolf/Zoya died? No idea, but lunching them covers that scenario too - they'd no exe today, kill 1-2, and we'd win tomorrow. So if we lunch Hum we win if: I'm scum Hum is solo Hum has dagger but not the no exe If we lunch Egalz we win if: I'm scum Egalz has dagger but not the no exe I know Hum is scum, because I am not, so I know that 2/3 of the winning scenarios (Hum has dagger but not no exe or is solo scum) involve voting hum. The only scenario where we win by voting Egalz but NOT hum, is where Egalz has the dagger but not the no exe. Every other scenario, we win by lunching hum. There is of course the possibility Hum's scumrade is Cube or Hal - I can't discount that, but in that scenario, lunching Egalz is equally a mislunch and we lose. CubicalSucrose posted:What we've seen (I think...) is that the dagger still kills the intended target even through being stolen (at least). This is what happened when you originally stole the dagger N3, no? Where YPM ordered the dagger to kill AFQM, and then even though you stole it, it still killed AFQM. This is a bit of a gamble - I agree with this interpretation but if you believe Hum is town, and they somehow got the knife, the knife has already defied our understanding of its functioning. It's possible Scum can still grab it without being stabbed, since we don't even know still how town Hum could have gotten it. I'd rather ensure it be unambiguously in town hands (Cube) via hammer, as per Sand's flip.
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Oct 8, 2023 18:47
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Hal, do you have anything you want to add? If not, I'm happy to go with Josef's suggestion.
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Oct 8, 2023 20:02
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Sorry was just rereading everyone, give me a minute here
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Oct 8, 2023 20:12
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No rush. There's a lot
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Oct 8, 2023 20:16
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Reading Josef’s post where he talk about scenarios where he’s scum and then also says “we win” (meaning town) in his examples is making my eyes water lol
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Oct 8, 2023 20:22
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Hal Insandenza posted:Reading Josef’s post where he talk about scenarios where he’s scum and then also says “we win” (meaning town) in his examples is making my eyes water lol Yeah, I had to give that a couple of "Wait, what?" rereads too
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Oct 8, 2023 20:27
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Hal Insandenza posted:Reading Josef’s post where he talk about scenarios where he’s scum and then also says “we win” (meaning town) in his examples is making my eyes water lol Yeah that was difficult when typing it too - if it helps, if I am scum it doesn't really matter who you vote as long as I don't get the hammer and dagger (as town Cube/hal will just stab me tonight if him flips town). I've parked my vote on Hum to make sure that doesn't happen
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Oct 8, 2023 20:37
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Is there a world where it is Hum and Josef, Josef has the dagger and the no-exe, and this was a gambit because we either kill hum and Josef wins by being able to both dagger and NK in the same night (I guess that bit seems somewhat unlikely but not out of the question if the dagger HAS to kill) or we try to kill Josef and it fails and they double kill tonight? I suppose if that is the case then we already lost so probably not.
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Oct 8, 2023 20:40
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| # ? Jun 10, 2024 00:38 |
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Hal Insandenza posted:Is there a world where it is Hum and Josef, Josef has the dagger and the no-exe, and this was a gambit because we either kill hum and Josef wins by being able to both dagger and NK in the same night (I guess that bit seems somewhat unlikely but not out of the question if the dagger HAS to kill) or we try to kill Josef and it fails and they double kill tonight? If it's Hum and JS, then I don't understand how HCT died N2. Hum stole (presumed town in this instance) Egalz's BP and that was confirmed by EGalz.
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Oct 8, 2023 20:54
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