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Acquilae posted:Ughh, Apple is dragging down the S&P and Nasdaq with them too. It will be lovely for my $SPY shorts.
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Jan 27, 2014 22:41
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Idk Icahn seems very into apple still. Dude is all over share buy backs eg.
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Jan 27, 2014 22:42
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semicolonsrock posted:Idk Icahn seems very into apple still. Dude is all over share buy backs eg. If I am not mistaken he is underwater in his trade.
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Jan 27, 2014 23:22
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At the MFA and Context hedge fund conferences in South Beach this week. Met with a European hedge fund that's trading VIX spreads over 3-5 days, pretty interesting strategy. The problem is volatility in volatility, they got creamed in October. Listened to Leon Cooperman for an hour. Met with a guy who manages ~2bn who I was in awe of. His main thesis was the collapse of China, he said it came up from high not to let the trust default today, and outlined how the banker acceptance notes fueling China are a Ponzi scheme. His other thesis was oil prices going down. He cited US production, the deal with Iran and the information the Saudi's aren't going to cut production to punish Iran and the US, who need oil prices at 95 and 85 respectively. He was also short EM through FX, primarily Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
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Jan 27, 2014 23:56
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Its Miller Time posted:At the MFA and Context hedge fund conferences in South Beach this week. From talking to friends involved in the chinese business world + a friend at KPMG who audits chinese businesses, it really does seem like their earnings are just vastly overstated almost all the time.
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Jan 28, 2014 02:29
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The SEC also recently banned basically all Chinese audit firms from working on any company that's on the US stock exchanges or something like that.
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Jan 28, 2014 03:07
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I'm surprised the Big 4 being banned from auditing them for 6 months didn't make bigger news. I think it was because of a narrow ruling regarding turning over work documents. We saw Kerrisdale today, who publishes all their investment theses, including a short of a Chinese company with an open letter to Deloitte China. Worth reading.
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Jan 28, 2014 03:07
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This is going to get interesting with the FOMC on Wednesday and the GDP numbers on Thursday. Is bad news still good news? Are retail investors who just dumped their equity holdings going to get screwed? Will investors finally realize that high duration bonds are probably not the best idea right now? The VIX dropped significantly midday today which was tied along with treasury yields rising. Either investors don't want to get caught between the FOMC and the bond market and are sitting in cash, or they are getting ready to pick up some relatively cheap(er) stocks. I feel a lot of people were looking for a reason to sell after that sustained rally all last year. How long they want to keep their money out though is a different story. We shall see I suppose.
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Jan 28, 2014 04:31
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Finally got through the AAPL results/earnings call. Not a great quarter but not a down 8% afterhours quarter either...going to wait a few days to hopefully find a bottom and add to my position if I can pick up shares around the $475 range. Also, holy poo poo Tim Cook, you are the ultimate in  on these calls.
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Jan 28, 2014 04:34
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Its Miller Time posted:I'm surprised the Big 4 being banned from auditing them for 6 months didn't make bigger news. I think it was because of a narrow ruling regarding turning over work documents. We saw Kerrisdale today, who publishes all their investment theses, including a short of a Chinese company with an open letter to Deloitte China. Worth reading. No one should be surprised at the quality, or lack thereof, of big four audit opinions. It's the same business model as pre-crisis rating agencies and a marginally better product.
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Jan 28, 2014 04:40
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R.A. Dickey posted:Also, holy poo poo Tim Cook, you are the ultimate in
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Jan 28, 2014 04:46
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Its Miller Time posted:I'm surprised the Big 4 being banned from auditing them for 6 months didn't make bigger news. I think it was because of a narrow ruling regarding turning over work documents. We saw Kerrisdale today, who publishes all their investment theses, including a short of a Chinese company with an open letter to Deloitte China. Worth reading. Seriously? I'd love to see the theses. I'll look through their site I guess.
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Jan 28, 2014 06:59
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semicolonsrock posted:Seriously? I'd love to see the theses. I'll look through their site I guess. Ya nothing secret. http://kerrisdalecap.com/blog.php edit: Anyone considering going short VIX Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jan 28, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 14:33
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So S&P futures just skyrocketed 10 points over the last 5 minutes and I can't seem to find a reason behind it. None of the finance news sites nor Thinkorswim is showing any news.JibbaJabbaJimmy posted:The Turkish central central bank raised its interest rates: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101359309. Acquilae fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Jan 29, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 23:06
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The Turkish central central bank raised its interest rates: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101359309.
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Jan 28, 2014 23:36
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Its Miller Time posted:edit: Anyone considering going short VIX VIX dropped 10% today.
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Jan 29, 2014 02:34
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R.A. Dickey posted:Finally got through the AAPL results/earnings call. Not a great quarter but not a down 8% afterhours quarter either...going to wait a few days to hopefully find a bottom and add to my position if I can pick up shares around the $475 range. Also, holy poo poo Tim Cook, you are the ultimate in Apple's valuation at $500+ assumes a rate of growth that the company increasingly has a hard time justifying. I feel like this is a broken record with their earnings calls.
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Jan 29, 2014 03:15
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I bought VXX 1/31 43.50 puts this morning when VXX was at ~44.70, and sold when it was at ~43.65. I considered rebuying them when it hit 44.50 again, but got lazy. After market it hit ~43.00. drat.
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Jan 29, 2014 03:50
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Carl Icahn comes off as super disingenuous.
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Jan 29, 2014 05:54
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ohgodwhat posted:I bought VXX 1/31 43.50 puts this morning when VXX was at ~44.70, and sold when it was at ~43.65. I considered rebuying them when it hit 44.50 again, but got lazy. After market it hit ~43.00. drat. Edit: premarkets looking very ugly so far; might have to get out if there's another VIX spike today/support break on S&P. Acquilae fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Jan 29, 2014 |
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Jan 29, 2014 09:11
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Yeah, things look messy. Did some emerging market blow up?
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Jan 29, 2014 15:04
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ohgodwhat posted:Yeah, things look messy. Did some emerging market blow up? The giant rate hike (7.75 to 12%) in Turkey didn't help, they're probably screwed. (If 12% doesn't stop your currency from sliding there isn't that much to do.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Jan 29, 2014 |
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Jan 29, 2014 17:42
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Fed tapers another $10 billion.
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Jan 29, 2014 20:05
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Sanky Panky posted:Fed tapers another $10 billion. Ardennes posted:The giant rate hike (7.75 to 12%) in Turkey didn't help, they're probably screwed. Nobody should be surprised by this.
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Jan 29, 2014 20:15
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I got the hell out of UVXY and breaking Monday's low could be a correction instead of the minor pullbacks like we had all last year. edit: Guess not; the markets are bouncing back sharply (for now). Acquilae fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Jan 29, 2014 |
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Jan 29, 2014 20:22
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Dead-cat bounce in the US or is it just being weighed down by stupid loving apple poo poo? Seriously Tim Cook, own up to the fact that your company is like 50% hype and confidence and 50% Actually Being A Good Company To Invest In. during earnings reports does not help, dude.
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Jan 29, 2014 23:52
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WHAT A GOOD DOG posted:own up to the fact that your company is like 50% hype and confidence and 50% Actually Being A Good Company To Invest In. Are you kidding, this is Apple. In computing Apple has always been a decent solution floated by it's nose-in-the-air userbase, telling everyone how great they are and different and generating elitism. Then they got into consumer electronics and yeah, we had smartphones before the iPhone but it really did change things. Of course, consumer electronics are where Samsung and LG and Sony and shittons of serious players are, unlike computing where you have a few dominant platforms. Apple has always been this, yeah they do good stuff but so does a ton of other companies and it's just that Apple is different because it's marketing has worked that well. Having a few percent of the market share of their main game for decades has now worked in their favour because, whoa.. it's not what you're used to right? Something different. The joke is in computing if they actually were successful some of their big draw cards (we don't get viruses) would evaporate (you don't get viruses because people that write viruses don't bother targeting a few percent of computers). Without the consumer electronics business Apple computing was dead, it wouldn't exist now. So yeah, can they keep their nose out in front in the gadgets game? So far, still today the iPhone is a unique offering over the Droid phones. Perhaps due to the Apple magic tl:dr being that loving arrogant might actually be a winning business model
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Jan 30, 2014 00:05
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Looks like might be time for me to rotate back into AAPL soon. I rotated out when the thing shot up to $560 since there was no real catalyst in the form of new products. Cmon baby, lets see low $400's again before the show starts. Apple's probably going to announce something big this quarter. They're *definitely* going to do something big this year, it's time. It's never been a matter of if, but when, and I think they've had a few good years of R&D now for it to make sense that in 2014 we see at least one new major product from them. Of course the buzz is about a "watch" or TV but with Apple who the hell knows, all I know is that this year feels like the year Apple releases something new. The market has continually priced in no new product concepts from Apple and the iPhone fading away into obscurity. I think 2014 is going to be a major turnaround year for their stock since I expect we're going to see at least one new product line and a pretty radically different iPhone introduced before the middle of the year. edit: For posterity, here's a prediction I made elsewhere and I'll just paste here so I can be smug if I turned out right: Apple introduces iBand, thin glass wristband that serves as a paired device to your iPhone or iPad. It's a beautiful curved display that wraps around your wrist, and calling it a "watch" seems pretty ridiculous since it is essentially a display surface for apps around your wrist, not some boxed-off tiny square screen encased by a frame and held on by a "dumb" leather or plastic band like the pebble or gear. (The analogy here is blackberry is to iphone as pebble/gear is to iband.) No on-board processors, RAM, or storage, iPhone/iPad does the heavy lifting. Use cases include obvious things like mapping, reading messages, fitness, and maybe payments with integrated touchID. Tim Cook demos FaceTime on the wrist on stage and points how just how insane it is that we have a Dick Tracy watch. Nerds write it off because it lacks features the Pebble has, is too expensive, looks stupid, has poor specs, or can't imagine why they would use it when you can't type on it. Will have a novel charging mechanism, design, or technology that makes it natural and easy to charge when not in use. The motivation for iOS7's focus on depth, layering, and typography and classic print design comes into clearer focus on a small screen which the user views at many different angles in quick glances. Might use gyros to enable fine scrolling control or flick gestures with tilt of the wrist. It's a major blowout hit with huge margins for Apple at a relatively low price point (prob $400 max.) Becomes a major cultural status symbol due to customization options (color, finish, maybe even different options catered to men and women) and is immediately the most visible Apple product a person owns. As such is the most fashion-conscious product Apple has ever created. For people who own the iBand, looking back on a time where they had to dig into their pockets to read a text message seems backwards and ridiculous. Samsung apes it, poorly, in Q1 2015 for Galaxy Gear line. AAPL closes 2014 in mid $800's, low $900's, maybe a 10-15% haircut from there if wider market takes a beating. nebby fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 01:34
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Haha, I'm like ok then what nebby, what will the new product be when we had ideas about the iPhone before it came. You go on to give a detailed and very plausible description complete with finishing Apple stock quotes. Never change, dude  Glass on your wrist, though? Naw, it needs durability and flexibility. Edit: the more I think about it, really? You can read texts but you can't respond? You're reading a map in low res? Fitness needs the durability, wrapping up your shiny iPhone in something and hiding it in a pocket is how I can work out with it. Apple TV is already a thing, I think MS have the offering there because their TV box also just happens to be one of the two games consoles worth having. Tony Montana fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 02:09
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I think the hit Apple took when Jobs got cancer and died was real. Right now in Cupertino, there is a real gap of leadership and the reality distortion field is failing. I don't think a iwatch or a iband is it, their success has been on devices that still have dependable functions. Ipods, Iphones and Ipads were generally improved versions of devices that were already but did their jobs very well. The Ipod not only looked better than the comparable products of the period but just worked better. I can remember that monstrous Archos device that was its closest competition. They need to find next gap in consumer technology, and that is a very heavy lift because looking at the market place I am not seeing many gaps. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 02:30
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Apple's valuation at $500+ assumes a rate of growth that the company increasingly has a hard time justifying. I feel like this is a broken record with their earnings calls. What valuation methodology are you using? AAPL at $500 assumes essential no growth at all. This is a company with $50+ billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months and cash on the ledger of $150+ billion. Using a valuation of anything resembling GOOG, MSFT, and HP you would think AAPL is a utility company, not one with incredible design and engineering talent and one which has a track record of releasing market changing products.
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Jan 30, 2014 02:35
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Ardennes posted:I think the hit Apple took when Jobs got cancer and died was real. Right now in Cupertino, there is a real gap of leadership and the reality distortion field is failing. Expectations have literally been impossible to meet for some time now. Whatever comes out, however revolutionary, will be poo poo upon by bloggers trying to drive page views, which will then be picked up by traditional news outlets trying to drive page views, which will result in downward pressure on the stock. It's literally a no-win scenario for Apple. And yet, as I write this, I still own their stock. 
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Jan 30, 2014 02:56
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Tony Montana posted:Edit: the more I think about it, really? You can read texts but you can't respond? You're reading a map in low res? Fitness needs the durability, wrapping up your shiny iPhone in something and hiding it in a pocket is how I can work out with it. Apple TV is already a thing, I think MS have the offering there because their TV box also just happens to be one of the two games consoles worth having. And yeah re:fitness, good point, this would have to be pretty durable. for it to work theres going to almost certainly going to need to be some previously un-used materials involved, like slightly bendable highly durable displays or something.
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Jan 30, 2014 03:01
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Josh Lyman posted:Expectations have literally been impossible to meet for some time now. Whatever comes out, however revolutionary, will be poo poo upon by bloggers trying to drive page views, which will then be picked up by traditional news outlets trying to drive page views, which will result in downward pressure on the stock. It's literally a no-win scenario for Apple.
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Jan 30, 2014 03:03
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I don't know if the wearable whatever it'll be is necessarily the answer but I do just want to point out that most of the criticisms of the potential product are very much in line with what they were pre-iPad release. I'm not suggesting the watch will be the next iPad in terms of sales or growth but I'm completely willing to bet that Apple will come out with something that is or gets close within the next few years. Edit: Oddly enough the more and more the bandwagon dissipates the more confident I feel about this. The price is insane right now; as a multi year investment theres nothing I feel better about in my portfolio. R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 03:07
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Wearable tech seems really likely to me as apples next thing. It seems to be the trend in tech right now, and with google glass pebble etc the beginnings have kind of been laid out already.
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Jan 30, 2014 04:06
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R.A. Dickey posted:What valuation methodology are you using? AAPL at $500 assumes essential no growth at all. This is a company with $50+ billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months and cash on the ledger of $150+ billion. Using a valuation of anything resembling GOOG, MSFT, and HP you would think AAPL is a utility company, not one with incredible design and engineering talent and one which has a track record of releasing market changing products. The one the rest of the market is using. It isn't the cash flow that I have issues with, it is the growth. I don't doubt Apple is a great company, I just don't think they have the future prospects to value them at $450 billion. I think that is the key point that a lot of investors are missing. Apple's valuation is massive. When you get that high, the cash flow and growth requirements become increasingly hard to sustain. Apple continues to pop out rehashed versions of the iPhone and has consistently lacked innovation over the last couple of years. As smart phone margins continue to decline, cash flow growth will continue to be pressured downward regardless of what they make up for in volume. quote:Expectations have literally been impossible to meet for some time now. Whatever comes out, however revolutionary, will be poo poo upon by bloggers trying to drive page views, which will then be picked up by traditional news outlets trying to drive page views, which will result in downward pressure on the stock. It's literally a no-win scenario for Apple. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 04:29
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At least for me the core valuation thesis is that Apple has undoubtedly been working on major new product lines for several years now and their track record indicates they understand what makes for a mass-market, highly desirable, highly disruptive product. They've gotten better at this, not worse, over the years. More than ever it's all but certain that when they release something, it won't be a rushed product. Wall Street analysts have a hard time swallowing something so speculative, so they look to margins and growth and value the business that way, full stop. It's missing the bigger picture however at the things Apple has done in the last decade and how they have done it. There is nothing that has happened with regards to Apple's rate of "innovation" that would have been unexpected if you were forward looking 5 years ago. Apple releases a major new product once every 5-7 years or so. It seems much easier to say "Steve Jobs is gone so Apple is dead and can't innovate" then to just look up on wikipedia how and when Apple released new products. If they release a new product line and its a complete miss, and makes no sense, then yes, they deserve to get creamed in the market and are in big trouble. But right now they're a sleeping giant and people clamoring about their "lack of innovation" strikes me as weird because to me, the longer Apple goes without releasing something huge, the more likely they are in fact working on something huge. nebby fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 04:44
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Apple continues to pop out rehashed versions of the iPhone and has consistently lacked innovation over the last couple of years. As smart phone margins continue to decline, cash flow growth will continue to be pressured downward regardless of what they make up for in volume.
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Jan 30, 2014 04:52
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Cheesemaster200 posted:The one the rest of the market is using. It isn't the cash flow that I have issues with, it is the growth. I don't doubt Apple is a great company, I just don't think they have the future prospects to value them at $450 billion. So no valuation method at all, got it. Unless by "the one the rest of the market is using " you mean the one driven by traffic bait articles on businessinsider titled something like "7 ways apple lost their touch." This whole thing about Apple lacking innovation is such an incredibly dumb meme at this point. For one, its just not true. Innovation is more that just coming up with the iPhone every quarter. Looking at it more realistically you could make a very compelling case that the improvement in supply chain, manufacturing, and operations they've achieved in the Tim Cook era is as important to the long term prospects of the company as anything else they've done in the last few years. They just shipped 50 something million devices! In a quarter! Thats ridiculous. They aggressively cut manufacturing, sourcing, and distribution deals. They aggressively spend on R&D. They iterate like crazy on existing devices and every few years expand into new product categories. By the narrow definition of innovation most people use as Apple's standard now the original iPhone is probably the only thing that counts. Or not, since it didn't even have 3g. They are very deliberate in what they do, they are often not first to the market, and they iterate. That has always been the model, it is what they are, and they're very good at it. I'm always willing to allow for other viewpoints, but so far all I see around Apple is lazy analysis and these same talking points over and over again (not singling out you). Unless you really do believe that Steve Jobs was responsible for every good thing they ever made. Then I probably can't convince you. R.A. Dickey fucked around with this message at 05:28 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 05:23
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