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vuk83 posted:Intel suggests that the Russians have compiled "kill lists" yes, i agree that the best thing to happen would be that the russians left. i believe that the government has strongly encouraged them to do so. this doesn't seem relevat to the point at hand, however
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Feb 28, 2022 22:10
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Feliday Melody posted:I've never seen Nooshi be so...... unspecific before. She's usually pretty straight forward. V. Illych L. posted:yes, i agree that the best thing to happen would be that the russians left. i believe that the government has strongly encouraged them to do so. this doesn't seem relevat to the point at hand, however
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Feb 28, 2022 22:19
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again, do you think that a ukraine armed by the west has a real chance of defeating the russians? this seems like an important question!
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Feb 28, 2022 22:20
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V. Illych L. posted:again, do you think that a ukraine armed by the west has a real chance of defeating the russians? this seems like an important question!
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Feb 28, 2022 22:24
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V. Illych L. posted:again, do you think that a ukraine armed by the west has a real chance of defeating the russians? this seems like an important question! I believe that a Ukraine with modern weapons can make themselves ungovernable by a Russian puppet regime. Until Russia has to give up on violently trying to maintain control of 40 million people.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:24
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evil_bunnY posted:They have a real chance to survive an existential crisis. Do you think putin would have OK'ed peace talks on neutral ground without ukraine getting assistance? yes, i think the russians expected ukraine to give up and that they had been putting a relatively soft touch (rockets instead of heavy artillery, etc) up until today. the russians have nothing to lose from keeping peace talks going. if you think that an armed ukraine can win the conventional war, then i can sort of see the rationale for arming, but i disagree with the factual assessment. Feliday Melody posted:I believe that a Ukraine with modern weapons can make themselves ungovernable by a Russian puppet regime. Until Russia has to give up on violently trying to maintain control of 40 million people. if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2022 22:31
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V. Illych L. posted:if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it. This is a bad faith response to a pretty extreme degree.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:35
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V. Illych L. posted:again, do you think that a ukraine armed by the west has a real chance of defeating the russians? this seems like an important question! Not sure why you actually need to ask though, given that it is a clear assumption in the pro-"arm Ukraine" position. Also, what is the definition of defeat? If Ukraine managed to only lose in the sense that it was forced to recognize Russia's 2014 conquests, that'd be a huge win, even if technically they lost the war. V. Illych L. posted:if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:37
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V. Illych L. posted:if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it. what
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Feb 28, 2022 22:40
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i have yet to hear of well-organised communist or other radical left groups in ukraine, nor of religious gatherings with the kind of doctrine and organisation that could make them effective insurgents. i have heard of well-organised nazi and assorted ultranationalist groups. these groups do not run the government by any means but i see no other reasonable core of a ukrainian national insurgency. they would not be the whole thing, of course, but weapons sent to supply ukrainian insurgents will find their way into nazi hands, there's no scenario that i can see where that doesn't happenA Buttery Pastry posted:I am pretty sure you haven't actually directly asked this question before. if i haven't literally formulated it as a question in those words i've tried to make it clear that it's a necessary precondition for wanting to arm the ukrainians and one which i have found alarmingly absent in most calls to arm them.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:45
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ted hitler hunter posted:The statement by the Communist Party and Revolutionary Communist Youth from a couple of days ago: Good lord, is that real? Because that's some choice fascist apologia for a nominally communist group. "poor russia learned violence from the US and was forced by nato to invade and warcrime all over ukraine.". They even parrot putins popaganda about the grave danger of the ukraine right-wing extremists. I do agree that that the western powers hypocracy is indisputable though, in a lot of ways. I don't feel it's super relevant when we're considering arming a people desperately fighting for their right to self-determination against invasion force from violently repressive fascist empire though. V. Illych L. posted:
wtf?
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Feb 28, 2022 22:46
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much like weapons sent to supply syrian rebels would consistently end up in the hands of serious, violent groups. in syria, the YPG/J are a fairly benign group, but attempts to arm other more democratically inclined rebels famously tended to fail, the weapons ending up in the hands of various jihadi groups.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:47
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V. Illych L. posted:if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it. Revelation 2-13 posted:Good lord, is that real? Because that's some choice fascist apologia for a nominally communist group.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:52
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i agree that ukraine is a more democratic state than russia and that the invasion is not anywhere near justified. that is not in the question. it is also a country with a pretty large and well-organised neo-nazi movement, and no other obvious political nuclei for a national insurgency. there's the military, but that's not really an ideology - the iraqi baath officer corps used militant sunni islam as the ideological core for their insurgency, for instance.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:57
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V. Illych L. posted:i have yet to hear of well-organised communist or other radical left groups in ukraine, nor of religious gatherings with the kind of doctrine and organisation that could make them effective insurgents. i have heard of well-organised nazi and assorted ultranationalist groups. these groups do not run the government by any means but i see no other reasonable core of a ukrainian national insurgency. they would not be the whole thing, of course, but weapons sent to supply ukrainian insurgents will find their way into nazi hands, there's no scenario that i can see where that doesn't happen V. Illych L. posted:if i haven't literally formulated it as a question in those words i've tried to make it clear that it's a necessary precondition for wanting to arm the ukrainians and one which i have found alarmingly absent in most calls to arm them. A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 22:57
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I mean, the Ukrainian state itself seem pretty well-organized. Occupying the country doesn't mean that just immediately dissolves, and NATO appears to basically already be well-integrated into the war itself in terms of providing arms and intelligence. That probably makes it a lot easier to shift into resistance mode down the line, and we've already seen in Iraq that a defeated army can turn into insurgents rather quickly. 1: since when has NATO been averse to working with fascists 2: yes, and the iraqi officer corps ended up turning into the core of IS. i can absolutely believe that there's going to be a serious ukrainian insurgency, i'm just noting that this insurgency is almost certainly going to have a serious nazi component which we will be arming if we're arming the insurgency. quote:Because no one thinks it needs to be said, precisely because it's a necessary precondition. then you'd think people would engage with this repeatedly stated precondition instead of going on about the moral obligation of aiding resistance movements or centering the ukrainian perspective
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Feb 28, 2022 23:02
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I politely asked you shitgibbons to can the talk about Ukraine and NATO, now I'm done asking. Take it to DMS or to the Ukraine thread, next person to bring that poo poo up gets reported
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Feb 28, 2022 23:05
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our countries are currently providing the ukrainians with lethal arms. it is very difficult to see how this is not a scandinavian political matter e. also a potential NATO application is a very pertinent question for our swedish posters, and one which will almost certainly become more pertinent as time passes
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Feb 28, 2022 23:06
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V. Illych L. posted:then you'd think people would engage with this repeatedly stated precondition instead of going on about the moral obligation of aiding resistance movements or centering the ukrainian perspective
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Feb 28, 2022 23:15
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You're not talking about scandinavian political matters, you're talking about internal ukranian politics, this whole thread has become a proxy Ukraine pol thread, and that's not what it's for.V. Illych L. posted:again, do you think that a ukraine armed by the west has a real chance of defeating the russians? this seems like an important question! This type of question for instance is very much NOT about swedish politics. You want to talk about Swedens choice to export weapons to the ukrainians, do so. V's waffling about their stance? Go ahead. The above question? Not so much. Relate it to Scandipol or don't bring it up, because this derail is getting nowhere.
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Feb 28, 2022 23:19
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McCloud posted:I politely asked you shitgibbons to can the talk about Ukraine and NATO, now I'm done asking. Take it to DMS or to the Ukraine thread, next person to bring that poo poo up gets reported V. Illych L. posted:our countries are currently providing the ukrainians with lethal arms. it is very difficult to see how this is not a scandinavian political matter This. It's imminently relevant IMO, but feel free to try and convince a mod otherwise I guess? McCloud posted:You're not talking about scandinavian political matters, you're talking about internal ukranian politics, this whole thread has become a proxy Ukraine pol thread, and that's not what it's for.
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Feb 28, 2022 23:24
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it's a necessary part of discussing whether the policy being led by every scandinavian government is the correct one. arming countries at war is a very big deal, norway's had an actual law against it for decades which is now getting worked around. this is a significant political development, and one which needs to be justified.
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Feb 28, 2022 23:28
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imo seems fine to discuss Scandinavian gov'ts response itt. It would get lost in the flood of posts in the larger Ukraine/Russia thread and might be more relevant to those nations' domestic politics. edit: looking upthread more, please take discussion of the actual conflict to the U/R thread. Discussion of Scandinavian response can stay here. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 23:44
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evil_bunnY posted:They have a real chance to survive an existential crisis. Do you think putin would have OK'ed peace talks on neutral ground without ukraine getting assistance? Are you honestly convinced that Putin intends to exterminate the population or something? Belarus isn't neutral, they allowed Putin to stage his invasion there and have also rescinded their nuclear-free status in response to NATO. V. Illych L. posted:if it comes to an insurgency you're basically saying "give nazis guns". there are no moderate insurgents. this is not an incoherent point of view but it's going to be extremely dirty and i am not at all convinced that it's worth it. Nonsense, it was a great success in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, the list just goes on. All of them respect the peace and security granted by NATO's principal powers. A Buttery Pastry posted:Not sure why you actually need to ask though, given that it is a clear assumption in the pro-"arm Ukraine" position. Also, what is the definition of defeat? If Ukraine managed to only lose in the sense that it was forced to recognize Russia's 2014 conquests, that'd be a huge win, even if technically they lost the war. One of the flashpoints for this conflict was Ukraine announcing its intention to reconquer Crimea, but sure, if you redefine a loss as actually winning, you'd be right. A Buttery Pastry posted:Maybe I missed something, but were the various resistance movements during WW2 Nazis? You'd think an alleged communist would understand that not being a moderate doesn't mean you're a Nazi. Depends. Which resistance are you talking about? Bandera's OUN? They didn't technically subscribe to National Socialism, but they did exterminate a whole lot of Jews when it was convenient to their goals. He was incidentally posthomously awarded the title Hero of Ukraine by western-backed Yushchenko and Lviv dedicated the year 2019 to his memory. And we're principally talking about a specific battalion whose first commander announced that Ukraine's national mission was to lead the white races on a final crusade against Jew-controlled subhumans. Edit: Oh goodie, mods have stepped in. SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 23:51
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ted hitler hunter posted:The statement by the Communist Party and Revolutionary Communist Youth from a couple of days ago: I saw a pamphlet with very similar wording being handed out during the protest in Malmö. To be honest, the correct answer from someone who considers themselves to be anti-imperialist is indeed to say "actually NATO and Russia are both hosed up". But then I don't understand why there is this specific exclusion of Russia as being both a capitalist and imperialist nation, which it most definitely is, it involves the exclusion of well understood facts about the Russian government as a totalitarian kleptocracy. In any case, the argument that Scandinavia is somehow furthering the violence by arming the Ukrainian army just doesn't follow. We're not giving civilians "Kalashnikovs and Molotovs" and to characterize the Ukrainian army as an insurgency is disingenuous. We're not somehow furthering the violence (as if occupied people don't suffer violence, jfc), it's this combined with sanctions that will eventually make Russian imperialist aggression buckle and retreat in shame. If we want to stay out of NATO then we need to make it clear to Russia that it does not have the freedom to annex any country that isn't a member.
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Feb 28, 2022 23:53
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SplitSoul posted:Are you honestly convinced that Putin intends to exterminate the population or something? SplitSoul posted:Belarus isn't neutral, they allowed Putin to stage his invasion there and have also rescinded their nuclear-free status in response to NATO. To go back to pure scandipol, I think the swedish reaction to the whole thing, much like the reaction the pandemic before that, has been incompetent when not straight negligent/reproachable. fnox posted:I saw a pamphlet with very similar wording being handed out during the protest in Malmö. To be honest, the correct answer from someone who considers themselves to be anti-imperialist is indeed to say "actually NATO and Russia are both hosed up". But then I don't understand why there is this specific exclusion of Russia as being both a capitalist and imperialist nation, which it most definitely is, it involves the exclusion of well understood facts about the Russian government as a totalitarian kleptocracy.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:02
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evil_bunnY posted:They literally had kill lists. I wouldn't have expected a full on Katin repeat, but lots of people fall out of windows in similar circumstances. Do you think they'll use an Iraq style deck of cards? fnox posted:In any case, the argument that Scandinavia is somehow furthering the violence by arming the Ukrainian army just doesn't follow. We're not giving civilians "Kalashnikovs and Molotovs" and to characterize the Ukrainian army as an insurgency is disingenuous. We're not somehow furthering the violence (as if occupied people don't suffer violence, jfc), it's this combined with sanctions that will eventually make Russian imperialist aggression buckle and retreat in shame. If we want to stay out of NATO then we need to make it clear to Russia that it does not have the freedom to annex any country that isn't a member. The Ukranian government is, however. They're handing out guns to anybody who wants them. Do you think there might be an overlap here? Like, just yesterday there was an article in Danish media about how easy it is to learn how to use an M72 LAW. Anyway, what does everybody think about the Danish government saying its citizens are free to join international brigades despite throwing the book at YPG volunteers just three years ago? SplitSoul fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 00:06
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SplitSoul posted:Anyway, what does everybody think about the Danish government saying its citizens are free to join international brigades despite throwing the book at YPG volunteers just three years ago?
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Mar 1, 2022 00:16
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SplitSoul posted:The Ukranian government is, however. They're handing out guns to anybody who wants them. Do you think there might be an overlap here? Like, just yesterday there was an article in Danish media about how easy it is to learn how to use an M72 LAW. They're outnumbered 4 to 1 and dealing with an existential threat. This doesn't mean there isn't a professional Ukrainian army or that they don't have at the very least a trained militia. Russia's already invaded them once, remember? Where do you think the line in the sand is gonna be drawn if we were to leave Ukraine unaided? Again, crucially, parts of Scandinavia aren't NATO.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:19
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fnox posted:They're outnumbered 4 to 1 and dealing with an existential threat. This doesn't mean there isn't a professional Ukrainian army or that they don't have at the very least a trained militia. Russia's already invaded them once, remember? I don't think anybody has suggested leaving Ukraine unaided. Nobody ITT is in favour of Putin or the invasion or contesting Ukranians' right to defend themselves against aggression, we're positing that these shipments—aside from being a further escalation on behalf of many NATO members—effectively won't change the end result except in numbers of dead (highscores don't win wars), and that it's irresponsible to arm untrained civilians so they can martyr themselves. There's no indication that Putin intends to invade Sweden or Finland. It's nonsense. He has no use for them, unlike Ukraine and previously Crimea. Watch the video His Divine Shadow linked earlier if you need a primer on the situation.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:39
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SplitSoul posted:I don't think anybody has suggested leaving Ukraine unaided. Nobody ITT is in favour of Putin or the invasion or contesting Ukranians' right to defend themselves against aggression, we're positing that these shipments—aside from being a further escalation on behalf of many NATO members—effectively won't change the end result except in numbers of dead (highscores don't win wars), and that it's irresponsible to arm untrained civilians so they can martyr themselves. You know what does win wars? Money. And if this becomes too expensive for Russia, they will have to back down. This can happen a lot sooner than the alternative which I guess is wait until a conquered Ukraine is allowed to be independent again? Up until the day of the invasion there were plenty of leftist sources that said that the invasion was never gonna happen. That it was clancychat, that it’s nonsense spread by US imperialists. Do you really want to wager that an emboldened Russia, had it been successful at just rolling over Ukraine, would stop at Ukraine? That it wouldn’t bring up any other number of historical grievances as horseshit excuses to just keep on encroaching closer into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe?
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Mar 1, 2022 00:52
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McCloud posted:I politely asked you shitgibbons to can the talk about Ukraine and NATO, now I'm done asking. Take it to DMS or to the Ukraine thread, next person to bring that poo poo up gets reported lmao
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Mar 1, 2022 06:07
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SplitSoul posted:and that it's irresponsible to arm untrained civilians so they can martyr themselves. Bringing this back to Sweden, what is the Swedish approach to the military? How much of the population has actually gone through military training? Not being in NATO, is your military less "professional?" That is, more home defense than directed at military adventurism.
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Mar 1, 2022 06:30
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fnox posted:You know what does win wars? Money. And if this becomes too expensive for Russia, they will have to back down. This can happen a lot sooner than the alternative which I guess is wait until a conquered Ukraine is allowed to be independent again? Yes and I'm not opposed to sanctions. I am, however, opposed to arming untrained civilians and using their bodies to underpin up those sanctions until they hurt sufficiently, and further, opposed to escalation from NATO members against their nuclear-armed opponent. I am utterly baffled a NATO-opposed, historically anti-war socialist party that even voted against intervening in Kosova would vote in favour of it. At least with Libya they had the excuse that they were lied to and walked it back a week later. And it seems it isn't exclusively popular among the rank and file, either, many people have threatened to turn in their memberships. A Buttery Pastry posted:My understanding is that Ukraine has (had) wide-ranging conscription, so a lot of the civilians might have better training than decent chunks of the invading Russian forces, some of whom only joined their military in December. And yet it isn't a requirement.
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Mar 1, 2022 06:34
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McCloud posted:I politely asked you shitgibbons to can the talk about Ukraine and NATO, now I'm done asking. Take it to DMS or to the Ukraine thread, next person to bring that poo poo up gets reported Get that cop out of your head before it becomes chronic. Potrzebie fucked around with this message at 12:10 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 07:11
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There was a Norwegian researcher/expert on international law on state tv this morning saying that by shipping weapons to an active warzone, Norway is considered an aggressor in international law and Russia would be within legal rights to attack limited targets (weapons factories etc) in Norway without Norway being able to trigger article 5. That's not a very nice thought.
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Mar 1, 2022 09:54
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TheRat posted:There was a Norwegian researcher/expert on international law on state tv this morning saying that by shipping weapons to an active warzone, Norway is considered an aggressor in international law and Russia would be within legal rights to attack limited targets (weapons factories etc) in Norway without Norway being able to trigger article 5. That's not a very nice thought. Well international politics is very different from international law and major players like NATO and Russia do not play by international law unless they want to or find it convenient. Russia is not going to bomb weapon factories in Norway for sending some LAWs to Ukraine because "wELl ACKSHUALLY". The invasion of Ukraine is a breach of international law, and that didn't stop Putin, and meanwhile the entire EU and NATO are chucking AT weapons at Ukraine's border as fast as they can without Russia doing squat. That expert is being either very dumb and/or a bad faith actor by saying that to a public that doesn't know better. Jesus christ what a moron. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:32 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 10:29
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i agree that international law is only as real as it can be enforced, but sending weapons into a war zone is a move which the russians are not likely to forget. this isn't necessarily saying that we shouldn't do it for that reason; i think that other reasons weigh much more heavily my impression was that it was mostly a warning saying "hey you realise that actively arming one of the sides in a conflict *is taking part in that conflict* right"
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Mar 1, 2022 10:57
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TheRat posted:There was a Norwegian researcher/expert on international law on state tv this morning saying that by shipping weapons to an active warzone, Norway is considered an aggressor in international law and Russia would be within legal rights to attack limited targets (weapons factories etc) in Norway without Norway being able to trigger article 5. That's not a very nice thought. There isn't any war. It is a special operation.
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Mar 1, 2022 11:25
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V. Illych L. posted:i agree that international law is only as real as it can be enforced, but sending weapons into a war zone is a move which the russians are not likely to forget. this isn't necessarily saying that we shouldn't do it for that reason; i think that other reasons weigh much more heavily Yeah Russia is butthurt about all European countries that are sending weapons to Ukraine, but to go on public TV and even insinuate that "oh well, now Russia is free to bomb our soil" is downright irresponsible. Russia is whining a lot but they know very well that they can not act upon this. The general public are not equipped for keeping track of a situation like this. Hell, I have colleagues who are going preppers because they think that Russia might invade any minute. Riling them up with dumb clancy chat doesn't help anyone. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 12:50
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