Grapplejack posted:Germany/France certainly knew as well, they let them in and repeatedly let them pass the ECB's tests while they were a member of the EU. The SPD government that allowed the Greeks into the Euro, against the explicit warnings of the Bundesbank, certainly is to blame as well and was subsequently voted out power. rgocs posted:
In the German part Rogoff explicitly says that he it was not the Excel error but the personal conviction of the student that got them the changed outcome, which was than marketed by Keynsian economists as "lolz those people can't even use Excel of course you can go balls deep in debt" instead of the more accurate "if you change your assumptions regarding the data selection you get a different result that still shows a significant but decisively smaller negative influence of excessive debt on growth".
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May 8, 2017 10:02
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Grouchio posted:Austerity was seen as good just because of a godamn excel error!? I wouldn't say 'based on it', because after all there always going to be rightwingers trying to cut government spending when they get a chance. But the apparent justification for austerity policies provided to them by such eminent academic economists as Reinhart and Rogoff, as well as the 'Bocconi boys' was enormously rhetorically and politically useful. However, the role of the Greek crisis was at least as important as an argument in other countries that you couldn't mess up your government finances and get away with it. The real problem with the Reinhart/Rogoff paper on debt levels (as it also was with the Alesina/Ardagna paper on 'expansionary austerity') was not that they were based on cherrypicked data, or even subject to coding errors, although they were . It was rather that they got the causality reversed. The conclusion to be drawn is not that you should start cutting spending in a period of high debt; instead, you should be trying to stimulate economic growth. Any country that's ever had a government debt of 90+ % of GDP (i.e. most participants in WWII for example) got rid of it by growing its GDP faster than its debt, not other way around. Anyway, congrats and good job to the French in this thread who voted for a candidate they hate to keep the fascist out. Thanks!
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May 8, 2017 10:01
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https://twitter.com/bayrou/status/861471410878918656 "The labour code has to be rewritten. It weighs over two kilos and has over 2000 pages in it." I knew it was coming but still: I'm already regretting not having abstained.
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May 8, 2017 10:07
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Kassad posted:https://twitter.com/bayrou/status/861471410878918656 That's... not a lot considering it's one of the books that has the most direct effect on the daily lives of literally every non-rich citizen for most of their adult lives.
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May 8, 2017 10:09
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Jerry Cotton posted:That's... not a lot considering it's one of the books that has the most direct effect on the daily lives of literally every non-rich citizen for most of their adult lives. It's also only true if you include legal commentaries and jurisprudence, I hear. But: facts don't matter here, only the narrative they want to push. And the narrative is that the 66% who voted Macron want this.
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May 8, 2017 10:15
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It's the SPD-controlled Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank that are to blame for this!
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May 8, 2017 10:15
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the only large-ish cities Le Pen outright won are Calais (not really surprising, considering she won the department) and...Nouméa the capital of New Caledonia? Weird tho she did good scores in some southern cities (Nice, Cannes, Antibes, Perpignan) and northern ones (Calais, Dunkerque, Tourcoing) Macron got 90% of the votes in Paris, wow
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May 8, 2017 10:29
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Kurtofan posted:Macron got 90% of the votes in Paris, wow all thanks to me
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May 8, 2017 10:34
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Collateral Damage posted:Well they do have first hand experience of what hyperinflation looks like. i read an article a while ago that said this narrative was invented in the 1970s when the german central bank (under an SPD government, by the way, in many ways the SPD was the original Third Way traitor party, long before it was cool) was one of the first and staunchest pushers of hard money policy to justify it. nobody ever mentioned it before then Grapplejack posted:They've got good reason not to, as an export heavy, industrial nation. Any inflation within the Euro would impact the German economy more severely than the rest of the Eurozone. The German economy could probably stand some inflation actually, it's similar demographically and economically to Japan and domestic demand can't be particularly healthy. Oh well, I guess they have semi-colonial European periphery states to substitute
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May 8, 2017 10:40
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Collateral Damage posted:Well they do have first hand experience of what hyperinflation looks like. Yep, it results in a Heinrich Brüning who pushes austerity to the point of deflation, and that deflation then results in a Hitler.
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May 8, 2017 10:42
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Kurtofan posted:the only large-ish cities Le Pen outright won are Calais (not really surprising, considering she won the department) and...Nouméa the capital of New Caledonia? Weird Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 10:59 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 10:53
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GaussianCopula posted:Greece literally had to fake data and pay Goldman-Sachs to help them with that to even get into the Euro. You can't tell me that the Greeks did not know that what they were doing was against the rules at the time. It takes two to tango, why don't you hold Goldman Sachs responsible? They should be made to pay half of the bill. Kassad posted:https://twitter.com/bayrou/status/861471410878918656 gently caress you Bayrou, you idiotic bastard with these dishonest statistics. Most of the book isn't actual law, but jurisprudence examples showing how it has been interpreted in the past. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 11:32 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 11:26
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YF-23 posted:Other countries aren't real places with real problems, they are only fantasy dreamlands for American liberals and conservatives to project their reveries of making things great again and Russian conspiracies trying to subvert Americans 
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May 8, 2017 11:34
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Phlegmish posted:Americans This but unironically.
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May 8, 2017 11:40
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Has GaussianCopula come up with a "good" rebuttal for the labor theory of value yet?
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May 8, 2017 14:10
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GaussianCopula posted:Inflation above the ECB target of close to but under 2% is very bad and has to be fought with fire. Counterpoint: No it isn't, stop lighting us on fire. icantfindaname posted:i read an article a while ago that said this narrative was invented in the 1970s when the german central bank (under an SPD government, by the way, in many ways the SPD was the original Third Way traitor party, long before it was cool) was one of the first and staunchest pushers of hard money policy to justify it. nobody ever mentioned it before then The SPD killed Liebknecht and Luxemburg. They were the traitor party long, long before it was cool. Orange Devil fucked around with this message at 14:42 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 14:32
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Fiction posted:Has GaussianCopula come up with a "good" rebuttal for the labor theory of value yet? Something something labour-intensive industries are not the most profitable, at a guess.
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May 8, 2017 14:46
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Cross posting https://twitter.com/insoniascarvao/status/861555172199235585
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May 8, 2017 16:03
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I wouldn't say 'based on it', because after all there always going to be rightwingers trying to cut government spending when they get a chance. But the apparent justification for austerity policies provided to them by such eminent academic economists as Reinhart and Rogoff, as well as the 'Bocconi boys' was enormously rhetorically and politically useful. However, the role of the Greek crisis was at least as important as an argument in other countries that you couldn't mess up your government finances and get away with it. That's not "the conclusion" to draw from anything. All of these studies are flawed in some way because they don't account for the endogeneity of government spending and economic growth w.r.t the debt level. And while there are some papers that try (i.e. some extension to the Alesina paper which looked at "unexpected revenue shocks"), there is hardly ever going to be a clean consensus based on empirical work, meaning that we should rely on theory or at least structural work. Empirical correlations are quite useless. I'm struggling to think of why the thing you linked would be any better for causality than what R-R showed. For instance if we accept that high debt levels are negatively correlated with prior GDP changes, then wouldn't a simple business cycle (or stimulus) explanation suggest that future GDP growth will be positively correlated with the debt that has been accumulated? I mean that's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are many things you can come up with. And WWII? Come on. Fiction posted:Has GaussianCopula come up with a "good" rebuttal for the labor theory of value yet?
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May 8, 2017 17:12
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Geriatric Pirate posted:There are people who still talk about the labor theory of value (outside of "interesting idea Marx came up with, since then obsolete")? lol What's obsolete about it? It can easily be applied to global capitalism by using it to explain why so much work is being outsourced.
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May 8, 2017 17:34
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Geriatric Pirate posted:That's not "the conclusion" to draw from anything. All of these studies are flawed in some way because they don't account for the endogeneity of government spending and economic growth w.r.t the debt level. And while there are some papers that try (i.e. some extension to the Alesina paper which looked at "unexpected revenue shocks"), there is hardly ever going to be a clean consensus based on empirical work, meaning that we should rely on theory or at least structural work. Empirical correlations are quite useless. I'm struggling to think of why the thing you linked would be any better for causality than what R-R showed. For instance if we accept that high debt levels are negatively correlated with prior GDP changes, then wouldn't a simple business cycle (or stimulus) explanation suggest that future GDP growth will be positively correlated with the deb that has been accumulated? I mean that's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are many things you can come up with. I will cop to being a bit lazy about selecting the link to support my argument here; it's just that most people I used to follow in the economics debate would link to Felix Salmon all the time so he has credibility to me and I should have linked to something like this instead (or maybe this on R&R); probably could have put a bit more care into formulating the argument too, but it's not as if putting a lot of effort into your posts in this thread by making sure they have the appropriate citations to the literature is usually a rewarding experience. I will also accept your argument that there are so many contingencies in economics that formulating general rules require stronger foundations. However, we're talking about Europe here so that's where the argument applies, we've had a few years to essentially test out Alesina/Ardagna's and Reinhart/ Rogoff's ideas here , and all I can say to them by now is Mene mene tekel ufarsin. Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 18:15 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 17:45
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I think anyone understands that keeping your debt relatively low is a good idea, it's just that austerity plans are usually thinly veiled excuses to destroy welfare and public services. Rather than build a buffer when the economy is growing and using it in downturns to absorb it, politicians tend to use it immediately to score for their electorate. In a political system where no politician is certain of ruling for more than 4-5 years at a time, and thus are under a lot of pressure to 'score' for their electorate, how do you expect them to have long term vision? Isn't it convenient that whenever governments slash spending in bad times, they never bring those services back when the economy is strong again? No wonder policy is reactionary and myopic. Lobbying from multinationals doesn't help matters either, to put it mildly. Policy based on short term gains and greed will always shaft the weakest members of society.
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May 8, 2017 18:07
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Geriatric Pirate posted:That's not "the conclusion" to draw from anything. All of these studies are flawed in some way because they don't account for the endogeneity of government spending and economic growth w.r.t the debt level. And while there are some papers that try (i.e. some extension to the Alesina paper which looked at "unexpected revenue shocks"), there is hardly ever going to be a clean consensus based on empirical work, meaning that we should rely on theory or at least structural work. Empirical correlations are quite useless. I'm struggling to think of why the thing you linked would be any better for causality than what R-R showed. For instance if we accept that high debt levels are negatively correlated with prior GDP changes, then wouldn't a simple business cycle (or stimulus) explanation suggest that future GDP growth will be positively correlated with the debt that has been accumulated? I mean that's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are many things you can come up with. Well,since labour theory was not,in fact, invented by Marx there are people that still talk about it . And if your counterfactual is subjectivist theory then,as you so clearly put it,"lol". I Love that leftist economists are stupidly Blind to the reality of human nature,and rightist economist are stupidly oblivious to the reality of math,facts and well ...reality. it really puts my shortcomings in so much better light.
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May 8, 2017 18:09
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Fiction posted:What's obsolete about it? It can easily be applied to global capitalism by using it to explain why so much work is being outsourced. The current model adopted by society is that value is produced by ownership, which is why being a rentier brings you more income and less taxes than being a producer. It's also why the reach of intellectual property is constantly increased (copyright terms are extended, genome can now be patented, and so on). There is absolutely no value for society in rewarding those who do productive work; on the other hand there is a lot of value for society in being rich and buying stuff that is already profitable.
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May 8, 2017 18:16
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Germanys taking in refugees because it knows that its a 10 year return on investment. These people will be a consumer market in 10 years.
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May 8, 2017 18:57
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LeoMarr posted:Germanys taking in refugees because it knows that its a 10 year return on investment. These people will be a consumer market in 10 years. also, there are smart people in germany who immediately recognized the opportunity for refugees to revitalize dead towns in germany:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7a1O3yRDdE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QILiBp19Yps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9Fwjv292qI https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-01-10/worried-about-its-future-former-east-german-city-recruited-syrian-refugees http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/9/8/against-anti-immigrant-sentiment-small-town-mayor-welcomes-in-refugees.html Really Germany is building a strong future for itself economically and transforming into a european America, good on them.
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May 8, 2017 19:09
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Al-Saqr posted:transforming into a european America Oh come the gently caress on. That's just mean.
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May 8, 2017 19:20
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Al-Saqr posted:Transforming into a european America Those lucky germans
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May 8, 2017 19:53
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I mean I guess you can look at Dearborn Michigan as a example that can be emulated maybe so not all examples from America are bad.I was gonna say flint too but that's more a example of how you kill your minorities.
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May 8, 2017 19:55
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https://twitter.com/cestrosi/status/861639137027399680 Christian Estrosi is resigning as president of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region, effective next week. People are speculating he was offered a cabinet position. If you're unfamiliar with the man: he's a Sarkozy-level right-wing rear end in a top hat.
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May 8, 2017 19:57
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Seems like I missed Macron's victory show at the Louvre
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May 8, 2017 19:59
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LeoMarr posted:Germanys taking in refugees because it knows that its a 10 year return on investment. These people will be a consumer market in 10 years. Hmmm, how does this happen? I'm not saying it doesn't, but this argument has been used by the Nordic left since forever but this scenario never materializes so I tend not to believe it. "Migrants are not an economic burden! Don't worry!" Unfortunately, I wish it did work like that, but the following scenario is what is going on in here: Most of the people who come from the countries the refugees come from will live supported by benefits for most of their lives. They will never find work. Those who find a job take that yep 10 years or so to find work, I can understand why someone says this. (Which is not many, the employment rates for Somalis/Iraqis here in Finland is 15% +/- altough they have been here for quite a while , in most North/West European countries the employment rate for the natives hovers at 60-70% for work age populations.) Their kids do awfully in school and tend to succeed as well as their parents all in all, which is quite typical for most populations in the West. If your parents live on welfare checks, it is hihgly likely you will too. So how does it work in Germany? Why is Germany different? I think a lot of countries would be interested in adopting their policies if they are übersuccesfull unlike everyone else.
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May 8, 2017 20:05
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Kassad posted:https://twitter.com/cestrosi/status/861639137027399680 i can see interior ministry
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May 8, 2017 20:11
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Ligur posted:Hmmm, how does this happen? I'm not saying it doesn't, but this argument has been used by the Nordic left since forever but this scenario never materializes so I tend not to believe it. "Migrants are not an economic burden! Don't worry!" Unfortunately, I wish it did work like that, but the following scenario is what is going on in here: How about you gently caress off, you nazi oval office?
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May 8, 2017 20:15
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TheRat posted:How about you gently caress off, you nazi oval office? Sadly Europol seems to tolerate these sorts much more than UKMT.
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May 8, 2017 20:20
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Kassad posted:https://twitter.com/cestrosi/status/861639137027399680 let the reaping of the welfare state begin 
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May 8, 2017 20:22
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TheRat posted:How about you gently caress off, you nazi oval office? Did this guy just post ~numbers~ 
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May 8, 2017 20:31
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TheRat posted:How about you gently caress off, you nazi oval office? What was nazi oval office about my question? Yelling "gently caress off oval office" doesn't convince as a retort in a debate forum. Again, what causes you to make the claim you did? I would prefer it to be true, too.
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May 8, 2017 20:32
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forkboy84 posted:Sadly Europol seems to tolerate these sorts much more than UKMT. OTOH, pissflaps.
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May 8, 2017 20:41
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Ligur posted:Hmmm, how does this happen? I'm not saying it doesn't, but this argument has been used by the Nordic left since forever but this scenario never materializes so I tend not to believe it. "Migrants are not an economic burden! Don't worry!" Unfortunately, I wish it did work like that, but the following scenario is what is going on in here: You have trouble getting a job that'll cover your unavoidable expenses if you're an extremely normal Finnish dude with a respected education right now, and the economy has been kinda lovely like that since the 90's. The refugees don't ever get work because prejudice and the lovely job situation combine toward any possible position having lighter-skinned applicants in the line before them. Keskusta and Kokoomus both like the trampling of workers' rights so they don't dare demand adequate pay, so that adds to the problem. Meanwhile their kids get pushed around in school to chants of "friend of the family" while, if they by some miracle can emotionally handle that enough to graduate, they face the same goddamn job situation. Their failure to integrate isn't difficult to explain, yours is. Get the gently caress out of my country you loving nazi. Move to Siberia, it has plenty of space for you to be horrible without anyone hearing you.
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May 8, 2017 20:45
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