Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Orthanc6 posted:

There is a plausible future for Germany being vulnerable to Russia, but the only way I can see is that the US has splintered or in some other way collapsed and that's how NATO would fail. But how, when, and the odds of that happening no one has a clue about, so for the time being it'd be meaningless to worry about.

NATO is weaker than before, but as long as the US sees it as key to its strategic goals it isn't going anywhere. And I seriously doubt Russia intends to personally test Article 5, ever, it will never be worth the risk.

I disagree. It is plausible that trumpian idea for USA to withdraw from european defense might happen.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:19

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# ? May 24, 2024 00:18

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Sekenr posted:

I disagree. It is plausible that trumpian idea for USA to withdraw from european defense might happen.

Yeah if there was catastrophic state collapse in the US or something Russia could probably establish its old sphere in about a year. There are only like 4000 operational tanks in the EU and most of the countries besides Germany are getting weaker by the year.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:26

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

Sekenr posted:

Well, thank god at least Germany is safe for now

Yes. Everything is always in a state of "for now". That's how the world works. There are no guarantees in perpetuity and the calculus changes decade by decade, year by year, day by day. Powers rise and fall and those who either cannot or choose not to have great power aspirations must bend with the wind as it comes. If the US breaks down under the weight of the culture wars and once again turns its sights inwards and abandons its status as a great power, everyone in Europe and around the world will have to revaluate where it stands. If Putin was to keel over dead tomorrow and the Russians enter another bout of infighting and self-introspection, you can be sure the Ukrainians would be welcomed into EU and NATO with open arms.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:28

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Getting rid of Nuclear and replacing the majority of that with Natural Gas was a terrible idea.

The data posted ITT is misleading because it lumps gas and all oil together. In reality gas accounts only for 5% of Finland's energy use. And the gas network only stretches across main cities in the south, which don't have that extreme winters.

And who said that Finland has given up on nuclear? The fifth plant is about to enter use this summer.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:33

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

FishBulbia posted:

Yeah if there was catastrophic state collapse in the US or something Russia could probably establish its old sphere in about a year. There are only like 4000 operational tanks in the EU and most of the countries besides Germany are getting weaker by the year.

Why does the USA need to collapse to withdraw from europe?

MikeC posted:

Yes. Everything is always in a state of "for now". That's how the world works. There are no guarantees in perpetuity and the calculus changes decade by decade, year by year, day by day. Powers rise and fall and those who either cannot or choose not to have great power aspirations must bend with the wind as it comes. If the US breaks down under the weight of the culture wars and once again turns its sights inwards and abandons its status as a great power, everyone in Europe and around the world will have to revaluate where it stands. If Putin was to keel over dead tomorrow and the Russians enter another bout of infighting and self-introspection, you can be sure the Ukrainians would be welcomed into EU and NATO with open arms.

Is there a point here other than futility of everything? This post is just a bunch of white noise

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:36

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Sekenr posted:

Is there a point here other than futility of everything? This post is just a bunch of white noise

I think the point is that in these far fetched scenarios where the security of current NATO members would be called into question Ukraine would be hosed anyway, so what's the point of drawing in these hypotheticals for a discussion about whether or not NATO should back Ukraine to the hilt now.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:49

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

Sekenr posted:

Why does the USA need to collapse to withdraw from europe?

Is there a point here other than futility of everything? This post is just a bunch of white noise

The point is to refute your "for now" post as equally just a bunch of white noise. Any treaty, any agreement, any arrangement is always "for now". So just because Germany can buy entente with Russia "for now" by sacrificing Ukrainian sovereignty and aspirations, doesn't mean that it isn't in their best long-term interests to do so.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 06:12

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Kinda digging the coalition of the willing this time. We have German helmet french laundry and UK advisors wearing trainers against the largest force maneuver in the last 80 years of European history

# ? Jan 27, 2022 07:18

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Kinda digging the coalition of the willing this time. We have German helmet french laundry and UK advisors wearing trainers against the largest force maneuver in the last 80 years of European history

Don't forget a few dozen American and Canadian special forces to GTFO embassy staff if this goes down, and doing their best not to become collateral damage that leads to WW3.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:12

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

The level of military response really shows how much of a threat the evil perfidious NATO really is to poow wittwe Russia

# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:22

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

I�d like to chime in about NATO expanding into former Warsaw Pact and Baltics. I don�t know the WP details, but Baltics basically bankrolled their own armies from 0 in early 90s, paid for Danish advisors, and then sent them dressed in Adidas and hand-me-down equipment to die Balkans to buy ourselves a shot at joining NATO, which was a day 1 priority when the Soviet Union fell. I find it rather disingenuous to bring us up as an example of NATO actively encroaching upon implied passive Russian hinterlands.

Here�s an informative thread on this:

https://twitter.com/profpaulpoast/status/1484883749527506946

In other news:

https://twitter.com/annmarie/status/1486137108964200451

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:57 on Jan 27, 2022

# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:55

bad_fmr: Nov 28, 2007

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Getting rid of Nuclear and replacing the majority of that with Natural Gas was a terrible idea.

This is just wrong. Finland produces 30% of its electricity with nuclear power and just completed building a new reactor. After it is ramped up to full production it should provide 14% more.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 10:45

barbecue at the folks: Jul 20, 2007

bad_fmr posted:

This is just wrong. Finland produces 30% of its electricity with nuclear power and just completed building a new reactor. After it is ramped up to full production it should provide 14% more.

I was just coming to post this. I know this thread is big on speculating about the future at the moment but it would be great if basic facts were correct when doing so.

Finland is actually kinda on the warpath inside the EU at the moment to get nuclear rated as green energy, against (mostly) Germany's insistence that it's anything but. We're partly in this entire mess because Germany's entrenched anti-nuclear stance and certain countries are getting fed up. Interesting times!

# ? Jan 27, 2022 11:25

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

The strong coal lobby in Germany and also Poland etc. are also to blame. Why risk it with unpredictable Atomkraft when we already organic coal dug from clean nature?

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:33

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

https://www.axios.com/nord-stream-2-pipeline-russia-ukraine-invasion-us-fff2a39c-7090-4539-8fbe-84a8c07c641b.html

quote:

The U.S. will make sure the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany won't go ahead if Russian troops invade Ukraine, State Department spokesperson Ned Price told NPR on Wednesday.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:34

Truga: May 4, 2014; Lipstick Apathy

lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:36

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Truga posted:

lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?

By disconnecting Germany from SWIFT. :v:

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:39

nurmie: Dec 8, 2019

US warships in the baltics cutting up underwater ~~cables~~ pipelines as we speak

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:53

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

https://mobile.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1486637503713001477

So the stage of "эй лох, гарантии безопасности есть? А если найду??" is over

Now rebuked in a polite way the gopnik is going to evaluate if it's worth to escalate further and threaten violence, attack the smaller kid he was picking on before or retreat pretending he was joking

# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:56

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016

Truga posted:

lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?

it sounds like it would be joint US-German action :shrug:

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:09

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

I'm not sure the official NATO response was mentioned here :https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191254.htm

quote:

So today, NATO has conveyed our written proposals to Russia.
We have done so in parallel with the United States.
Let me outline the three main areas where we see room for progress.
First, NATO-Russia relations.
Russia has cut diplomatic ties with NATO, which makes our dialogue more difficult.
So we should re-establish our respective offices in Moscow and in Brussels.
We should also make full use of our existing military-to-military channels of communications, to promote transparency and reduce risks, and look also into setting up a civilian hotline for emergency use.
Second, European security, including the situation in and around Ukraine.
We are prepared to listen to Russia�s concerns, and engage in a real conversation on how to uphold and strengthen the fundamental principles of European security that we have all signed up to, starting with the Helsinki Final Act.
This includes the right of each nation to choose its own security arrangements.
Russia should refrain from coercive force posturing, aggressive rhetoric, and malign activities directed against Allies and other nations.
Russia should also withdraw its forces from Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, where they are deployed without these countries� consent, and all parties should engage constructively in efforts to settle conflicts, including in the Normandy format.
Third, risk reduction, transparency, and arms control.
History has shown that engagement on these issues can provide real security for everyone.
So we need practical measures that will make a real difference.
As a first step, we are proposing mutual briefings on exercises and nuclear policies in the NATO-Russia Council.
We should also modernise the Vienna Document on military transparency, and work to reduce space and cyber threats.
We should consult on ways to prevent incidents in the air and at sea, and recommit to full compliance with international commitments on chemical and biological weapons.
Finally, we need to have a serious conversation on arms control.
Including nuclear weapons and ground-based intermediate and shorter range missiles.

A pretty firm 'okay if you want to talk about forces deployed in Eastern Europe, here's our starting point'.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:10

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

steinrokkan posted:

The level of military response really shows how much of a threat the evil perfidious NATO really is to poow wittwe Russia

Yeah it�s Russia�s fault the west is a bunch of degenerate failing nations

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:13

nurmie: Dec 8, 2019

meanwhile, putin is pivoting towards crypto mining:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/putin-russia-has-advantages-in-bitcoin-mining

(it's also on bloomberg but paywalled there)

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:17

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

Regarde Aduck posted:

Yeah it’s Russia’s fault the west is a bunch of degenerate failing nations

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:18

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Nenonen posted:

The strong coal lobby in Germany and also Poland etc. are also to blame. Why risk it with unpredictable Atomkraft when we already organic coal dug from clean nature?

Green coal :hmmyes:

Truga posted:

lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?

Sanctions. Gazprom requires a subsidiary company in the EU to run the little bit of pipeline that is inside the EU and the US just threatens any company that deals with it with sanctions. No company with global holdings would want to touch that poo poo with a ten foot pole

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:20

BoldFace: Feb 28, 2011

Now we're talking. Assuming that Putin hasn't gone completely senile, he still has to pay some attention to Russia's oligarchs and their interests.

https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1486664795180961795

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:23

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Well that's not great

quote:

A Ukrainian National Guard soldier opened fire on security guards at a military factory in central Ukraine for reasons unknown, killing five people and wounding five others before fleeing.

The incident took place in the early hours of Thursday in Dnipro at the Pivdenmash missile factory (Yuzhny Machine-Building Plant Yuzhmash) as weapons were being issued to the guards at the start of a shift, a police statement said.

The attacker opened fire with a Kalashnikov assault rifle and afterwards fled the scene, the interior ministry said, adding: �As a result, five people died and another five were injured.�

Police later captured the suspect in the town of Pidgorodne outside of Dnipro.

Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskiy named the soldier as Artem Ryabchuk and said he would �bear the strictest responsibility provided by law�.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/soldier-opens-fire-kills-five-troops-at-ukraine-military

I wonder if that's just a nut job, a sympathizer, or one of those saboteurs that are supposedly on the ground.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:23

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016

nurmie posted:

meanwhile, putin is pivoting towards crypto mining:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/putin-russia-has-advantages-in-bitcoin-mining

(it's also on bloomberg but paywalled there)

I am sure they are well aware of its advantages when it comes to money laundering

Anyway, I am looking forward to NFTs of Putin kissing boy's belly issued by Russian Federation

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:24

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Alchenar posted:

I'm not sure the official NATO response was mentioned here :https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191254.htm

A pretty firm 'okay if you want to talk about forces deployed in Eastern Europe, here's our starting point'.

It wasn't, thank you for bringing it up. Looks solid to me as well.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:27

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; "..The high ground"

Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:29

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Panzeh posted:

Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.

Maybe we should get and sit down the security council of Russia for a little chat and give them the bad news that Russia isn't that important or a reliable security partner in the 21st century?

# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:45

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

Really good interview with a Russian energy expert

https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/208000
https://newtimes-ru.translate.goog/articles/detail/208000?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

quote:

Evgenia Albats : Mikhail Ivanovich, why did such a massacre unfold around Nord Stream 2? Why did Merkel, before leaving the post of German chancellor, insist that the Americans not impose sanctions against Nord Stream 2? And now, in the German government, which included the Greens as part of the coalition, calls are again being made to impose sanctions against Nord Stream 2. What's happening?

Mikhail Krutikhin: The story is long. From the very beginning, the Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, and plus South Stream, which planned to send Russian gas to Europe through the Black Sea and Turkey, were conceived with the sole purpose of punishing Ukraine. Deprive it of the transit of Russian gas, bypass it from both sides and close the ring in Austria, at the distribution point, at the so-called hub in Baumgarten. After that, no Russian gas would go through Ukraine, it would not receive two or three billion a year of profit from transit, and plus, it would have left a gigantic gas transportation system inoperative, on the existence and operation of which more than one hundred thousand are counting Human. That is, it should have been a serious punishment.

BUDGETS ARE EVERYTHING
Evgenia Albats: When was the old gas pipeline built?

Mikhail Krutikhin: It all started back in the late fifties. By the seventies, several powerful gas transmission systems were built from the north of Western Siberia, where unique gas fields are located: Urengoy, Yubileinoye, Medvezhye. One direction is through Belarus and Poland to Germany. The second direction is through Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary. They move further into eastern and central Europe. The southern branch goes all the way to Bulgaria, partly the Balkan countries were fed there. These pipes exist, they can work for more than a dozen years, and they have one and a half times more capacity than Europe needs gas from Russia. The construction of the new pipe cost $92 billion just to Torzhok. Gazprom has become just a mechanism for transferring state, people's money - after all, it is a 50 percent state-owned company - into the pockets of private contractors.

FIRST WE LAY THE WASTE PIPES AND THEN WE DIG THEM FROM THE GROUND. THIS IS HOW GAZPROM WORKS

Two lines - Nord Stream-1 and two more lines - Nord Stream-2. Nord Stream 1 - 55 billion cubic meters per year, Nord Stream 2 - another 55 billion cubic meters, that is, a total of 110 billion cubic meters per year. If we remember that Germany takes 52 billion a year from us to the maximum, then 110 billion is not only Germany

This means that Germany was promised to be made a distribution center for Russian gas for a large part of Europe. Of course, the German campaigns are very interested in this. In addition, gas from Torzhok goes south to the Black Sea, from where it was decided to deliver it to Europe through Turkey. But there is a paradox here. A good example is the latest contract with Hungary. How was it before? Through Ukraine to Hungary - all the way. Now it is necessary to pump gas from the Yamal Peninsula to the south of Russia, to the Black Sea. Then pump through the Black Sea to Turkey. And Turkey is a capricious partner, it has repeatedly forced Gazprom to accept its terms. Then Bulgaria, then Serbia, which is not a member of the European Union at all, and only then Hungary. Let's say that Hungary doesn't care, it has concluded a price formula similar to that for all Gazprom contracts.

Yevgenia Albats: Now we come to the issue of gas wars. I was taught: there is a supply, but there is a demand, and it forms the price. You explained that the gas offer coming from the Russian Federation is huge, even more than what Europe needs. Then why did gas prices rise so much there?

Mikhail Krutikhin: There are several reasons. It began with the fact that the market experienced an outflow of gas towards Asia. Liquefied natural gas from various countries, from Nigeria and Algeria to Qatar and the United States, went to Asia, where prices rose due to supply problems from Australia, climatic, weather conditions and many others. Merchants who buy and receive liquefied natural gas from factories in different countries have pulled all their LNG carriers to Asia. In Europe, they realized it and said: oh, we need to raise prices in order to pull at least part of this gas here. Prices climbed up. And then Gazprom stepped in. What is Gazprom doing? First, he announces that he is not going to pump gas into underground storage facilities. If earlier he regularly replenished them every year when there was a lot of gas, and sold this gas to consumers in winter, now he decided to keep it there at zero. Secondly, he announces: sorry, I will no longer sell gas on my electronic platforms for the entire fourth quarter, the entire winter, and the entire next year 2022. That is, we will not give you additional volumes of gas in addition to the existing contracts that were concluded earlier, although they were given every year. Before that, Gazprom had a very good profit. He refuses to profit, refuses to sell additional volumes and sharply reduces the pumping through Ukraine towards Europe. That is, if at the beginning of last year 186 million cubic meters per day went through Ukraine, then when the conflict arose - 70 million. And now even less, about 37 million per day. Poland. And in Europe they realized: there might not be enough gas! But in fact, I'm getting ahead of myself, it will be enough, they will survive the winter season.

are the measures? The first is supplier diversification. Not routes - instead of Ukraine, there are other routes, as Gazprom says, - namely, suppliers. Since Gazprom is an unreliable supplier, it has shut off valves on gas pipelines many times for political reasons. The resolution specifically says that it is necessary to deliver from the Caspian region, from the eastern Mediterranean. Next is the development of a network of terminals for the reception of liquefied natural gas since in some parts of Europe there are not enough of them. We need new ones

Evgenia Albats. When there was a crisis on the border of Belarus and Poland in connection with refugees, Lukashenka threatened that he would cut off gas to Europe. Can he do it?

Mikhail Krutikhin : Technically it can, of course. Send some armed comrades to the compressor stations and close the valves. But what is the problem? The first problem is legal. The gas pipelines that run through the territory of Belarus do not belong to it, they are Gazprom's property. How can he do this without the consent of Moscow? He is so dependent that he is not capable of such tricks.
...

He also points out how exports to Europe are over a 150 bcm while to China it's a measly 37

Somaen fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jan 27, 2022

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:08

Truga: May 4, 2014; Lipstick Apathy

Dwesa posted:

it sounds like it would be joint US-German action

yeah i'm sure germany is just gonna let their citizens freeze to death for US to teach russia a lesson lmao

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:12

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Truga posted:

yeah i'm sure germany is just gonna let their citizens freeze to death for US to teach russia a lesson lmao

You should actually read articles before posting about them. Germany also seems to support this threat:

quote:

Emily Haber, Germany�s ambassador to Washington, appeared to endorse a hardening of the position in comments on Thursday. She noted on Twitter that �the US and Germany jointly declared last summer: if Russia uses energy as a weapon or if there is another violation of Ukraine�s sovereignty, Russia will have to pay a high price.�

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, also made this clear. �Nothing will be off the table, including Nord Stream 2,� Haber said.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:19

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

I think many people in this thread kind of ignore that though Russia's demands are treated as a precondition for not invading Ukraine, Russia doesn't actually even hint to that. Because even without hinting to it, Russian rouble is in free fall despite growing oil prices.

Today, after getting a written response from US, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry again highlighted that Russia 'sees the very thought of a war with Ukraine as unconscionable'.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:32

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Paladinus posted:

I think many people in this thread kind of ignore that though Russia's demands are treated as a precondition for not invading Ukraine, Russia doesn't actually even hint to that. Because even without hinting to it, Russian rouble is in free fall despite growing oil prices.

Today, after getting a written response from US, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry again highlighted that Russia 'sees the very thought of a war with Ukraine as unconscionable'.

Country that has, without any doubt, actually engaged in a limited war with Ukraine in the past 6 years: "the very thought of a war with Ukraine is unconscionable"

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:37

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

GABA ghoul posted:

Country that has, without any doubt, actually engaged in a limited war with Ukraine in the past 6 years: "the very thought of a war with Ukraine is unconscionable"

It's clear that everyone is talking about an open large scale invasion.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:40

SilvergunSuperman: Aug 7, 2010

Paladinus posted:

It's clear that everyone is talking about an open large scale invasion.

Just a small war, as a treat

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:45

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

SilvergunSuperman posted:

Just a small war, as a treat

Well, that's basically what they got in 2014, and it was basically responsibility free till they murdered a bunch of Dutch kids.

# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:48

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# ? May 24, 2024 00:18

nurmie: Dec 8, 2019

my certainty that there isn't going to be a war has just risen from 99% to 99.99%

i'm even fairly sure there won't even be any D/LNR shenanigans (barring the usual artillery duels and maaaaaybe a skirmish or two on a sub-battalion level at worst)

as i have said time and time again, literally no one in the region wants, needs, or can afford an actual war breaking out right now

# ? Jan 27, 2022 15:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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