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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

It doesn't matter how much in total you pay, all the matters are the monthly payments. If you can afford all your life's monthly payments (this month at least) then you are set. Also it's safe to assume you'll be making more money in future, so feel free to plan around that. And if poo poo hits the fan you can always sell your house and you'll come out ahead because it's going up every year.

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Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/seniors-going-bankrupt-in-soaring-numbers-1.3129176?cmp=rss

Some snippets:

quote:

According to the federal Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy, 10 per cent of those who declared bankruptcy in 2014 were aged 65 and older. That's a whopping 20.5 per cent increase from 2010.

...

Another driving force is that more seniors are retiring in the red. According to Statistics Canada's most recent numbers, in 2012, 42.5 per cent of people aged 65 and over still had debt. That's a stunning increase of 55 per cent since 1999.

...

Southon's setback began when her husband's communications business failed in 2002. To keep paying the bills, they had to sell their condo. Then, the unthinkable: Vic was diagnosed with dementia and could no longer work.

"I became very frightened, quite frankly, because I realized he wasn't going to be generating any more income and everything was up to me," says Southon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/seniors-in-ontario-make-up-30-of-bankruptcies-report-1.3060463

Snippets:

quote:

According to a review of 6,000 insolvency filings handled by the firm in 2013 and 2014, the share of debtors aged 50 and over increased to 30 per cent compared with 27 per cent in the previous two-year period.

...

The percentage of debtors with at least one payday loan increased to 18 per cent compared with 12 per cent two years ago, while the average total payday loan debt for those with them rose 12 per cent to $2,749.

Seniors were less likely to use payday loans at just nine per cent of those over 60 filing for insolvency with one, but those that did owed $3,693 on average.

...

The report found seniors and pre-retirement debtors have accumulated the highest unsecured debt load among all age groups. On average, debtors 50 and older filing for insolvency had $68,677 in unsecured debt, while those over 60 had total unsecured debt of $69,031.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

It doesn't matter how much in total you pay, all the matters are the monthly payments. If you can afford all your life's monthly payments (this month at least) then you are set. Also it's safe to assume you'll be making more money in future, so feel free to plan around that. And if poo poo hits the fan you can always sell your house and you'll come out ahead because it's going up every year.

I see no flaws with that logic :v:


The problem is that "people" are generally short-sighted*, and when a bubble's been going on for 15-20 years it's easy to either start believing it's no bubble (because it's convenient) or even if you *know* it's a bubble, well what's to say it won't last another 5-10 years? Afterall, you do need somewhere to live right now and don't have much choices (because there's jack to rent at reasonable/any prices).

Not that I would know anything about this dilemma :smithicide:


*At least for anything that's "years" away.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Baronjutter posted:

It doesn't matter how much in total you pay, all the matters are the monthly payments. If you can afford all your life's monthly payments (this month at least) then you are set. Also it's safe to assume you'll be making more money in future, so feel free to plan around that. And if poo poo hits the fan you can always sell your house and you'll come out ahead because it's going up every year.

Except the monthly payments would also be lower if you had a larger downpayment, so that doesn't make sense either...

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

But you need a 4br house NOW not by the time you have a down payment saved.. Also who saves? Saving is throwing away money that could be going towards monthly debt payments which enrich your life and build equity.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
Yeah, right, the guy with the $4,000 suit is going to rent a reasonably priced apartment. COME ON!

Postess with the Mostest
Apr 4, 2007

Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

PT6A posted:

Except the monthly payments would also be lower if you had a larger downpayment, so that doesn't make sense either...

The people who that makes sense to are not the same people who would consider the pros and cons of 100% financing and who are unable to save up a downpayment.

Ceciltron
Jan 11, 2007

Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!
Pillbug

triplexpac posted:

Yeah, right, the guy with the $4,000 suit is going to rent a reasonably priced apartment. COME ON!

Gonna mortgage/finance my next suit to be able to fart in clothes above my station in life.

Tochiazuma
Feb 16, 2007

Ceciltron posted:

Gonna mortgage/finance my next suit to be able to fart in clothes above my station in life.

Listen if you don't get in right now buddy you're going to miss out on all the future profits

Clothing prices can only go up



GODDAMMIT

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

But you need a 4br house NOW not by the time you have a down payment saved.. Also who saves? Saving is throwing away money that could be going towards monthly debt payments which enrich your life and build equity.

lmao I like the concept of building equity, yup "home investment" means reducing your debt dollar for dollar.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
All this talk of financial disaster got me walking around with a loving boner all day.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/052817e0-1e49-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html

quote:


Record valuations drive 2015 M&A boom

Buyers paid record valuations for US takeover targets, as merger and acquisition activity soared to unprecedented levels in the first half of the year, surpassing the debt-fuelled run before the 2008 crisis.

A heady cocktail of ultra-low financing costs and a search for growth across sectors propelled US M&A activity up 60 per cent to $987.7bn, the strongest first half since records began in 1980.
Global M&A in turn rose 38 per cent compared with one year ago to $2.18tn in the first half, the highest since 2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The US deals are also marked by valuations that are testing new grounds. The average deal valuation — a key measure of how much buyers are willing to pay — rose to 16 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, beating the previous high of 14.3 times in 2007.

This year “feels like the last days of Pompeii: everyone is wondering when will the volcano erupt”, said one senior banker referring to the ancient Roman city buried by ash in the 79AD eruption of Mount Vesuvius. “Nobody knows. It feels like we still have some leeway but it won’t last for ever.”

Valuations have been highest in the tech sector, led by Avago’s $36.4bn acquisition of rival Broadcom, which was the largest tech deal since the dotcom bubble and valued the target at 20 times ebitda.
Bankers, lawyers and academics interviewed by the Financial Times said that the data indicated that prices on deals were becoming “a little frothy”, raising questions about the sustainability of the current boom.

Most bankers are convinced that the deal bonanza will go on for at least another year, as economic conditions remain favourable and investors are rewarding companies for purchases.
This year, shares of acquiring companies have gone up 66 per cent of the time after a deal has been announced, compared with less than half of the time in 2008.

Rising valuations, however, are likely to make it harder for companies to strike new deals, said Wilhelm Schulz, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa M&A at Citigroup. “The concerns of boardrooms have generally shifted away from macro issues to valuation when it comes to a deal,” he said.

Scott Moeller, head of the M&A research centre at London’s Cass Business School, said that it was too early to determine whether the markets were in a new asset bubble. But he added that the high valuations mixed with a growing number of hostile deals indicated that “we are moving into the direction of the 1998 and 2007 bubble”.

Fitch, the rating agency, recently said that the breakneck pace of M&A activity has increased the risk that US companies will borrow too much money or overstate the savings they can achieve from their deals.

Still, some analysts said that the current cycle was very different from the one that preceded the financial crisis. “The higher [valuation] multiple, by itself, is not an indicator of a bubble since Treasury bond rates have dropped since 2007,” said Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at NYU Stern.

Basically we're all loving dead.

blatman
May 10, 2009

14 inc dont mez


I almost feel like I should be jumping into the insanity-pile and buying a house on borrowed money, just because with so many people lined up for catastrophe, what if the government bails them all out when it goes tits up?

But then I realize that's stupid, governments only bail out businesses.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I was at a toddler birthday party last weekend talking to the grandad. He used to be a hotshot pharma exec and now he's retired and volunteering his time as a therapy dog handler. I told him that I work for in an industry that's in distress. He asked me what I thought about Vancouver's economy and I told him my real concern was this upcoming week, regarding the greek default and chinese stock market annihilation. He told me that he was really hoping oil prices would come back up real soon or else he's in trouble.

WHAT THE gently caress ARE YOU DOING loving WITH OIL STOCKS IN RETIREMENT rear end in a top hat

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

blatman posted:

I almost feel like I should be jumping into the insanity-pile and buying a house on borrowed money, just because with so many people lined up for catastrophe, what if the government bails them all out when it goes tits up?

But then I realize that's stupid, governments only bail out businesses.

Canada is worse since unlike US it has no recourse loans, aka you can't walk away from the debt and the government will most likely give priority to precious banks.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

etalian posted:

Canada is worse since unlike US it has no recourse loans, aka you can't walk away from the debt and the government will most likely give priority to precious banks.

This is what makes it all the more delicious. When they go belly up, they will take whatever I offer them for their mcmansions to escape that crushing debt.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/29/canada-cenbank-idUSL2N0ZE04J20150629

quote:

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz defended on Sunday the central bank's surprise interest rate cut early this year, saying last year's big drop in oil prices made the cut necessary to keep policy in a "neutral zone" where risks are balanced.

Speaking on a panel at the Bank for International Settlements' annual general meeting in Basel, Switzerland, Poloz acknowledged that the quarter-point rate cut in January was "very controversial", with some saying the bank was making financial vulnerabilities worse by encouraging more borrowing.

But the shock of cheaper oil, which is a major Canadian export, threatened to reduce national income and increase leverage ratios whether Canadians were borrowing more or not, Poloz said.

"Accordingly, acting to cushion the blow to the economy by cutting rates actually mitigates the rise in those leverage measures," Poloz said in a video of his remarks that was posted on Monday. "In other words, there are risks associated with doing nothing, too."

Canada's robust housing market has helped support the country's economy in the years since the global financial crisis and the consumer debt-to-income ratio sits near a record high, prompting concerns that Canadians have become over-stretched.

"When we cut rates to stabilize the economy, we don't picture some heavily indebted household going out and adding to their debt pile," Poloz said. "Rather, we picture a household with no debt at all deciding finally to buy a house and taking out a mortgage.

"It's true that aggregate leverage goes up in the process but it's not obvious that it's less sustainable."


The Bank of Canada cut its main policy rate to 0.75 percent in January, catching markets off guard and leading some to criticize the bank's communication strategy. Its next rate decision is in mid-July, when the bank will also update its economic forecasts.


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle25170613/

quote:

Most economists estimate that the Canadian economy grew by about 0.1 to 0.2 per cent in April. While that would be the first monthly growth since December, it would, at best, merely make back what the economy lost in March. This anticipated tepid start to the second quarter has many forecasters now predicting GDP growth of less than 1 per cent annualized for the quarter as a whole (which ends June 30) – a far-from-convincing turnaround from the economy’s bleak 0.6-per-cent annualized contraction in the first quarter. There’s little margin for disappointment in the numbers before we could be facing a second consecutive quarterly GDP decline – the traditional technical definition of a recession.

“GDP numbers are usually market movers, but this one is special,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, in a research note last week. “A negative number, and people will start whispering the R-word while aggressively pricing in another rate cut by the Bank of Canada. And while the market expects a better number, there is little conviction behind that consensus.”

Hopes for a more substantial rebound have been chilled by disappointments in three key April economic indicators: Retail sales, manufacturing and trade.

Retail sales fell 0.1 per cent in April from March, a slowdown that caught the markets by surprise after the retail sector had been building momentum as the winter progressed. In volume terms, once price changes were removed, retail sales looked even worse in the month, off 0.2 per cent.

Manufacturing, a sector that had been expected to be a leader in Canada’s economic recovery this year, instead extended its early-year stumbles in April, with sales slumping 2.1 per cent from March. And the country posted a $3-billion trade deficit in the month, its second-biggest in history (exceeded only by March’s $3.9-billion shortfall), amid the fourth straight monthly decline for exports – another economic segment expected to do the heavy lifting this year. April’s export declines had nothing to do with the beleaguered oil and gas sector: Non-energy exports slipped 0.9 per cent in the month, even as energy exports recovered modestly.


welp

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

jm20 posted:

This is what makes it all the more delicious. When they go belly up, they will take whatever I offer them for their mcmansions to escape that crushing debt.

Also Canada is different in that home loans run from 5-10 years, you must then convince the bank that you are good bet for the loan.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/seniors-going-bankrupt-in-soaring-numbers-1.3129176

quote:

Seniors going bankrupt in soaring numbers

Judy Southon never imagined it would come to this. She and her husband Vic had good jobs, raised a son and were homeowners. But after a run of bad luck, the 67-year-old wound up deep in debt and had to declare bankruptcy.

"I was scared and shocked," says Southon, who lives in Toronto.

The golden years have become a tarnished chapter for some. Seniors are carrying more debt into retirement and, as a result, a growing number are going bankrupt.

According to the federal Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy, 10 per cent of those who declared bankruptcy in 2014 were aged 65 and older. That's a whopping 20.5 per cent increase from 2010.

Spend savings, pile on debt

One of the reasons is actually a plus — we're living longer. "For many of us, we're outliving our savings," explains Nora Spinks with the Vanier Institute of the Family, a non-profit research organization.

Another driving force is that more seniors are retiring in the red. According to Statistics Canada's most recent numbers, in 2012, 42.5 per cent of people aged 65 and over still had debt. That's a stunning increase of 55 per cent since 1999.

Bankruptcy trustee Doug Hoyes blames the lingering debt largely on our addiction to low interest loans.

"If you've got decent credit, you can go out and get a mortgage for 2.5 per cent. So why not be buying the bigger house?" he says. "Today we don't need to save because we all have a line of credit."

But paying down debt in your senior years can be challenging on a fixed income. Throw in an unplanned setback like a financially needy adult child or a family illness and the bills can become crushing.

Southon's setback began when her husband's communications business failed in 2002. To keep paying the bills, they had to sell their condo. Then, the unthinkable: Vic was diagnosed with dementia and could no longer work.

"I became very frightened, quite frankly, because I realized he wasn't going to be generating any more income and everything was up to me," says Southon.

She had given up her teaching career to go into business with Vic. While caring for her ill husband, she still managed to hold down a job at a bank until she was laid off in 2008.

"The stress of the financial burden plus the stress of caregiving was huge," she says.

Vic's dementia worsened to the point where she had to move him into a nursing home. That meant paying his housing costs plus her rent. "We had two homes to pay for plus at this point I wasn't making enough to make ends meet," says Southon, She was landing only short-term, low-paying jobs.

Vic died in 2011 but the bills kept mounting to the point where Southon couldn't keep up. "The 'b' word was floating around in my mind for about a year," she says before she bit the bullet and, at age 66, filed for personal bankruptcy.

The financial burden of ill health

A new research study examining older Canadians and finances found that unexpected major events such as big health expenses challenged many seniors' financial plans.

The Ontario Securities Commission report surveyed more than 1,500 Canadians over 50.

For those under 75, the most common event derailing financial plans was an unplanned early retirement, often due to ill health.

Wayne Kilgallen worked most of his life as a farmer in Saskatchewan. But he had to quit five years ago after suffering a severe heart attack. Now, at age 64, he lives on disability in Toronto, where he has family.

To cover costs for simple things like clothing and food for himself and his dog, he says he's had to resort to credit cards, racking up $15,000 in debt.

"Usually I run out of dog food and I worry more about my dog than I do myself," says Kilgallen, adding that he can't give up his pet because she's "family."

Kilgallen's debt payments now cost him about half his $872 monthly living allowance.

"I try to make it but it's hard," he says. "I got this debt, I got that debt, I can't really do anything."

A better plan

Spinks, with the Vanier Institute, says the best way to guard against falling into financial traps in later years is to develop a long-term plan.

"When it comes to senior debt, the more we understand about our own expenses and our own financial situation in adulthood, the better equipped we will be to be able to handle the future and less likely to fall into financial difficulty," she says.

Although she fell into difficulty, Southon says she now has her finances in order and has mapped out a promising path for the future.

She's working two part-time jobs and has just become a licensed spiritual practitioner. She hopes to set up a practice and use her life experiences to help others.

"I look back on it as a learning experience," says Southon. "It is a way of starting over again. Never will this happen again."



enjoying eating cat food until you die assholes

EvilJoven
Mar 18, 2005

NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?
Fun Shoe
Haha no this is going to spawn a new era of socialism because the rich know that in the next decade they're going to have to choose between going from astonishingly rich to just ridiculously rich or face a greatly increased chance of them being dragged from their houses and torn apart.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

I posted this already!!! You're slipping CI

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Brannock posted:

I posted this already!!! You're slipping CI

He was busy cleaning himself up.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Brannock posted:

I posted this already!!! You're slipping CI

Woops sorry!

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

From this tweet:
BC is a strong draw for international immigration*
*lowest international immigration since the '80s pic.twitter.com/ZWF8SvIP5J

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
What about all those mainlanders that paid huge amounts for visas in Quebec then moved to Vancouver?

Hal_2005
Feb 23, 2007

Cultural Imperial posted:

I was at a toddler birthday party last weekend talking to the grandad. He used to be a hotshot pharma exec and now he's retired and volunteering his time as a therapy dog handler. I told him that I work for in an industry that's in distress. He asked me what I thought about Vancouver's economy and I told him my real concern was this upcoming week, regarding the greek default and chinese stock market annihilation. He told me that he was really hoping oil prices would come back up real soon or else he's in trouble.

WHAT THE gently caress ARE YOU DOING loving WITH OIL STOCKS IN RETIREMENT rear end in a top hat

Nailed it.

Remember when I said low interest rates make people do stupid things? He probably saw the 10%+ yields and thought they were excellent steals. If you look up economic history 'yield pigging' is a thing. Many got their rear end handed to them on REITS in the 690>73 bust, and more got smoked in the income trust boondoggle. This ties into why so many pensioners are gong bankrupt. If inflation (noncore) went up about 16% since 2003, and yields have fallen from 6% to 2%, the ability to afford a lifestyle if you have had zero capital growth to reinvest since 1998, is pretty loving marginal at this point. The same thing happened in Japan. Whole books and artsie photography journals are written about the 'silent poverty'.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
And 0% interest rates will gently caress over retirees too.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Chasing high yield investments usually ends in tears

It's why I always lol at stock picker articles on secret high yield dividend stocks.

There is no great return without a corresponding great risk.

etalian fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Jun 30, 2015

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Cultural Imperial posted:

From this tweet:
BC is a strong draw for international immigration*
*lowest international immigration since the '80s pic.twitter.com/ZWF8SvIP5J

How does that compare to other international immigration though? It might still be a comparatively strong draw if other nations are experiencing lower immigration rates

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Brannock posted:

How does that compare to other international immigration though? It might still be a comparatively strong draw if other nations are experiencing lower immigration rates

I see this as information that bc is not increasing in attractiveness to foreigners.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Cultural Imperial posted:

I see this as information that bc is not increasing in attractiveness to foreigners.

I will make the assumption that a large majority of BC immigrants are Chinese and also the assumption that China has become a more attractive place to live in since the 1980s. The drop in immigration to BC, then, may possibly still be outweighed by the decrease in Chinese emigration. Is this implausible?

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

I see this as information that bc is not increasing in attractiveness to foreigners.

Aren't we into year two of no investor class immigration? That probably accounts for a large chunk of that dip.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I thought the iip was eliminated last year?

This graph is hot off twitter so I wouldn't be making all kinds of assumptions.

E: iip killed last February
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/rich-chinese-angry-over-cancellation-of-canadian-immigrant-program/article17269390/?service=mobile

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Jun 30, 2015

Fuzzy Mammal
Aug 15, 2001

Lipstick Apathy

etalian posted:

Chasing high yield investments usually ends in tears

It's why I always lol at stock picker articles on secret high yield dividend stocks.

There is no great return without a corresponding great risk.

Of course there is :smug: There's getting in on some sweet vancouver real estate for 0% down.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Fuzzy Mammal posted:

Of course there is :smug: There's getting in on some sweet vancouver real estate for 0% down.

a amazing investment

the talent deficit
Dec 20, 2003

self-deprecation is a very british trait, and problems can arise when the british attempt to do so with a foreign culture





the house next door to my parents in ladner just sold for $200k more than it was purchased for about 15 months ago. about a 40% increase with no real renovations

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

the talent deficit posted:

the house next door to my parents in ladner just sold for $200k more than it was purchased for about 15 months ago. about a 40% increase with no real renovations

The secret renovation is time.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

It's also a amazing investment since it's so illiquid.

Brag to your neighbor about house going up 14% in one year but don't think about how it doesn't put a single cent in your bank unlike a stock dividend.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

the talent deficit posted:

the house next door to my parents in ladner just sold for $200k more than it was purchased for about 15 months ago. about a 40% increase with no real renovations

Holy poo poo.

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JBark
Jun 27, 2000
Good passwords are a good idea.

the talent deficit posted:

the house next door to my parents in ladner just sold for $200k more than it was purchased for about 15 months ago. about a 40% increase with no real renovations

A house in Melbourne just sold last month for 930K profit, 8 months after the previous sale. 2.23M to 3.16M, no renos done or anything like that.

That's what, a ~60% yearly return?

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