War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Jasper Tin Neck: Nov 14, 2008; "Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Nothingtoseehere posted:

An interesting thing would be a demographics breakdown on who supports the war. Russias demographics are old and lopsided - it's alot easier for old men and women to support the war when they have no personal fear of being sent into it, but consume the propaganda of how important it is for the Russian state. In terms of political power it doesn't matter if pensioners in Ryazan support the war, but the productive labour in Moscow and St Petersburg. Doesn't mean they don't aswell (domestic propoganda is hell of a thing) but its something to consider.

According to polls, a majority of responders (64%) in the age group most likely to be levied to fight, 18�35, personally support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. It's lower than the corresponding number in older populations (a whopping 87% among 65+ population) and younger respondents are much less sure of their stance (definitely/most likely yes 29%/42% in 18�35 vs. 64%/22% in 65+), but it's still a positive stance.

Obviously getting an accurate read of sentiments in Russia is difficult because people who oppose the war are wary of expressing their opinions. Still, it took three years in a free media environment for a majority of American opinion to turn against the invasion of Iraq. Given how firmly the Kremlin controls the media in Russia, Russians will probably keep rallying around the flag for significantly longer.

For what it's worth, Vladimir Milov of the Free Russia Foundation thinks the numbers reflect apathy rather than enthusiasm towards the war. His main point is that a third of the respondents aren't definitely sure about their stance and the less closely they follow media coverage of the war, the less likely they are to support it.

Vladimir Milov posted:

Our data shows that the interest in points of view alternative to what the Russian propaganda is saying on the war has grown significantly in the recent weeks. The monthly audience of the Navalny Live YouTube channel in March exceeded 20 million people, the great majority of them from inside Russia. That�s comparable with the audiences of state television channels. The number of subscribers of the MilovLive YouTube channel has jumped by about a quarter since the start of the war and is nearing 400,000� and this is just one of the many channels providing the point of view on the war diametrically opposed to Putin�s propaganda.

# ? May 19, 2024 10:21

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# ? Jun 12, 2024 01:23

Dirt5o8: Nov 6, 2008; EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Crosspost from GBS, since I meant to post here initially:

Dirt5o8 posted:

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/471630/us-army-awards-expedited-production-contract-himars-launchers

U.S. dropping a poo poo load (400-800 mil) on an indefinite contract for HIMARs production. Looks like this is to expedite the actual construction of the systems to ensure supply for Ukraine, domestic, and global sales - not for purchasing HIMARs systems directly.

My personal opinion is that this will take 1-2 years from contract finalization to see results. It may encourage the u.s. and allies to release more of their on-hand stocks if they know that more production is spooling up though.

# ? May 19, 2024 12:50

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Ukrainians are claiming destruction of another Russian navy vessel, this time a minesweeper (Kovrovets).

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-navy-says-it-destroyed-russian-sea-minesweeper-kovrovets-overnight/

# ? May 19, 2024 12:57

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

Dirt5o8 posted:

Crosspost from GBS, since I meant to post here initially:

Know what this tells me? It tells me Russian counter battery has destroyed enough launchers that they need replacement, and that the US anticipates needing replacements on hand if it gets in a shooting war in either Europe or the Pacific.

Thanks for sharing the article.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:13

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Ynglaur posted:

Know what this tells me?

Mm, yes, it couldn't possibly instead mean that the meager handful of HIMARS provided to Ukraine have been found to be indispensable for the defense of Ukrainian territory, such that making available additional systems is a priority over more blingy options like F16s.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:23

Vesi: Jan 12, 2005; pikachu looking at?

Ynglaur posted:

Know what this tells me? It tells me Russian counter battery has destroyed enough launchers that they need replacement, and that the US anticipates needing replacements on hand if it gets in a shooting war in either Europe or the Pacific.

Thanks for sharing the article.

maybe I'm missing a joke but HIMARS is a rocket fired from way outside artillery range and there hasn't been any reliable confirmation of a single launcher being destroyed yet

# ? May 19, 2024 17:23

notwithoutmyanus: Mar 17, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

Know what this tells me? It tells me Russian counter battery has destroyed enough launchers that they need replacement, and that the US anticipates needing replacements on hand if it gets in a shooting war in either Europe or the Pacific.

Thanks for sharing the article.

Or, you know, you could just be reading an article about ramping up production on something previously stated to be in short supply?

Not everything is Clancy.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:26

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Vesi posted:

maybe I'm missing a joke but HIMARS is a rocket fired from way outside artillery range

*can be fired from way outside counterbattery range. But the closer it is to the front, the longer its effective range is and the further in the back the enemy needs to stage all vulnerable functions to keep them safe.

No idea about the losses but it sounds very loose speculation.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:27

Mr Luxury Yacht: Apr 16, 2012

IIRC there was at least one confirmed damaged, but by FPV drone not artillery. It was seen back in the US for repairs.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:30

Dirt5o8: Nov 6, 2008; EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

I don't have enough info to draw a conclusion on HIMARs attrition or what else the article implied. I just posted it to show a potentially positive development. More HIMARs = more gooder. Also, it shows the continued outbreak of sanity at the DoD with forethought and multi-year supply contracts for critical munitions and systems.

# ? May 19, 2024 17:44

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

IIRC there was at least one confirmed damaged, but by FPV drone not artillery. It was seen back in the US for repairs.

You'd think MFC would have a forward depot in Poland by now.

# ? May 19, 2024 18:26

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

GD_American posted:

You'd think MFC would have a forward depot in Poland by now.

Poland was a bit weird about having Leopard service depots, they wanted technology transfer. That was under the previous, proto-fascist government though.

# ? May 19, 2024 18:29

Nuclear Tourist: Apr 7, 2005

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

IIRC there was at least one confirmed damaged, but by FPV drone not artillery. It was seen back in the US for repairs.

The one visually confirmed non-decoy Himars truck that was blown up was hit with an Iskander ballistic missile IIRC unless there's been others that I've missed.

# ? May 19, 2024 19:08

I dont know: Aug 9, 2003; That Guy here...

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Or, you know, you could just be reading an article about ramping up production on something previously stated to be in short supply?

Not everything is Clancy.

Good performance also creates demand. MIC likes selling poo poo to allies, and allies like buying poo poo that has been shown effective.

# ? May 19, 2024 19:17

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

I dont know posted:

Good performance also creates demand. MIC likes selling poo poo to allies, and allies like buying poo poo that has been shown effective.

I mean, Poland alone ordered an additional 486 of them last year. Lockheed Martin has so far doubled production from 48 a year to 96 a year. So filling the Polish order alone would take 5 years of the current full production capacity.

Lockheed Martin has already lost orders because production of HIMARS is booked out for a good number of years.

As for Ukraine: So far two HIMARS have been confirmed damaged and delivered to the US for repairs and one has been confirmed destroyed.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 19:26 on May 19, 2024

# ? May 19, 2024 19:24

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

To be clear:I'm certainly speculating.

# ? May 19, 2024 21:06

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

notwithoutmyanus posted:

it's somewhere between 80/20 and 90/10 that Hillary will win the election. Absent some magic sea of change against foreign policy it's reasonably likely we see even more US support of Afghanistan before the election. Most talk about some kind of Trump risk is doomerism until October because Obama is still the current president.

# ? May 20, 2024 00:43

Koos Group: Mar 6, 2013

Please keep in-depth discussion of the effect that the Russo-Ukrainian war might have on American politics in the USCE thread. Or the 2024 election thread I intend to make in the near future.

# ? May 20, 2024 19:57

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

An interesting article from the German news magazine ZEIT about German companies building drones for the Ukrainian military.

-One of the companies is still in the start-up phase, but recently got a visit by Habeck, the German Vice-Chancellor. They're currently building prototypes. (Tytan Technologies) They're concentrating on defense drones.

-Another company was founded a couple years ago to build drones for the Bundeswehr, but back before the war, everyone was still in sleep-mode, so they started selling cheap drones to the Ukrainians instead. They're building recon drones for the Ukrainians now.

-A third company, ARX, concentrates on transport drones to help secure logistics in an environment of constant drone attacks.But their Gereon-drone is a modular system, and can do, well, whatever the customer wants, really. It also, like many of the new German drones, involves heavy use of on-board AI, so the drones are capable of operating even when jammed.

Kind of neat!

The article also points out that this new crop of companies operates widely differently from their bigger counter-parts: Not only because they're still fairly small compared with giants like Rheinmetall, but also because they concentrate on churning out cheap, reliable drones at dizzying speeds, while the bigger European corps often work like they're operating in an alien universe where time runs slower, and everything has to be made from gold.

# ? May 20, 2024 21:02

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

Drones are ammunition. Companies and militaries that realize this will use them more efficiently.

# ? May 20, 2024 21:51

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

And the article gets into that. The drones will get scratched up and a bit muddy at the front, but they are only expected to last for six flights. Anything beyond that is either an unusually lucky drone or an unusually skilled drone operator.

# ? May 20, 2024 22:07

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Over 3 thousand convicts are to join the AFU.

https://kyivindependent.com/justice-ministry-over-3-000-ukrainian-convicts-want-to-join-army/

The law that promises early release for those signing contracts with the army is obviously reminiscent of the one Russia now has (until recently they recruited convicts illegally, basically), but it's much more restrictive in terms of what crimes disqualify you. Only 20k qualified for the new scheme in Ukraine and out of those only 3k actually decided to sign up, and then some will also be filtered out based on health requirements. What remains to be seen is where and how these new recruits will be used. Russia tends to use convicts in the most dangerous offensive operations, and convicts make up for ~20% of known Russian KIA losses. The relatively low number of recruited convicts in Ukraine hopefully means that they don't intend to treat them as disposable to the extent Russia does.

# ? May 21, 2024 14:41

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

Looks like Poland broke up a Russian backed sabotage ring.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/20/poland-arrests-nine-suspects-over-alleged-russian-sabotage-plot

quote:

Poland arrests nine suspects over alleged Russian sabotage plot

Prime minister Donald Tusk says detained are accused of �beatings, arson and attempted arson�

Poland has arrested nine members of an alleged Russian spy ring in connection with alleged sabotage plots, prime minister Donald Tusk said on Monday.

�We currently have nine suspects detained and indicted, who have been directly implicated in the name of Russian (intelligence) services in acts of sabotage in Poland,� Tusk told private broadcaster TVN24.

�These are Ukrainian, Belarusian and Polish citizens,� Tusk said, suggesting some may have been recruited from criminal circles.

Those detained are accused of �beatings, arson and attempted arson,� according to Tusk, who said the Russian plots concern not just Poland, but also Lithuania, Latvia and possibly Sweden.

An international investigation is under way, he said.

Among the examples Tusk cited was an attempt to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, as well as to an Ikea centre in Lithuania.

He said a public information campaign on the issue would follow in the days ahead.

Earlier this month, Tusk announced the strengthening of the Polish intelligence services in the wake of Moscow�s destabilising activities, announcing that Poland would assign a further 100m złotys (�20m) to civil and military counter-espionage services.

He also indicated that Warsaw had foiled several acts of sabotage, �thanks to the vigilance of our services and our allies�.

In recent weeks, Warsaw has announced the arrest of a man suspected of helping Russian intelligence prepare a possible attack on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as well as a Belarusian suspected of sponsoring a March attack on Leonid Volkov, a close friend and ally of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, in Vilnius.

Warsaw also arrested two Poles who were responsible for that attack.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Warsaw has been an unconditional supporter of its Ukrainian neighbour and the main transit country for western weapon deliveries.

# ? May 21, 2024 17:50

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

A brief overview of recent arrests in Russian military leadership:

Timur Ivanov - Deputy of the Minister of Defense - Arrested April 23

Insanely corrupt and rich guy who was in charge of basically every construction project of MoD (Hospitals, housing for military personnel)
Few of his affiliates got caught into the net too:

quote:

Second person arrested in the bribery case was Sergei Borodin, head of Volzhsky Bereg company who was �on friendly terms with the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation� and �supervised the construction and overhaul of facilities of the Ministry of Defense. The court ruling on the arrest of Ivanov and Borodin stated that they �entered into a criminal conspiracy with third parties and joined with them in advance to commit a crime by an organized group - receiving a bribe on a particularly large scale in the form of property services in the course of contracting and subcontracting work for the needs of the Ministry of Defense.� According to a journalistic investigation in 2023, the company headed by Borodin was building Ivanov an estate in the Tver region. On April 25, Alexander Fomin, a co-founder of Olimpsitistroy, a contractor for the Defense Ministry, was arrested for being �in a trusting relationship with Ivanov and allowing him not to pay for goods and services related to the repair and reconstruction of buildings.� Before his arrest, Fomin refused to make a deal with the investigation.

Insider (investigative outlet in-exile) got some fun details today https://theins.ru/news/271715 (Rus). We got robbed of a SOF vs FSB shootout

quote:

Former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov knew in advance about the impending arrest and was preparing to resist, a source in the FSB familiar with the situation told The Insider. According to the source, Shoigu had his deputy guarded by armed members of the Special Operations Forces to prevent the FSB from conducting a surprise arrest. For several months, the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department had been unable to get close to Ivanov, and the special service had to go tricky. On April 23, Ivanov came for a routine checkup at the 3rd Vishnevsky Central Clinical Hospital, and his guards, as usual, stayed waiting for the deputy minister on the first floor. When Ivanov went up to the doctor's office alone, FSB officers were already waiting for him there. After arresting the deputy minister, they took him out through the back door so that his guards would not know about it.

Yury Kuznetsov - Head of the Main Personnel Department of MoD - Arrested May 14

quote:

The investigation suggests that in 2021-2023, Kuznetsov received a bribe from representatives of commercial structures for certain actions in their favor. The IC does not specify what exactly they consisted of.
Kuznetsov's workplace and home were searched. More than 100 million rubles, including in foreign currency, gold coins, collector watches and luxury items were seized from the general. Searches also took place at several addresses in Moscow and Krasnodar Region.

General Ivan Popov, ex-commander of 58th Army - Arrested May 21
Got his 5 minutes of fame by doing a Prigozhin-lite sending a very angry voice message to his friends after he got sacked by Gerasimov in July 2023 (reportedly, for asking to rotate his troops, tough luck!). Got sent to Syria far away from the current war, but apparently that was not enough:

quote:

The general was accused of illegally selling two thousand tons of metal structures worth about 100 million rubles, which were intended for the construction of a defense line in the zone of the SMO, Mash wrote. According to the channel, Popov, together with a businessman from the Krasnodar region and an officer of the Southern Military District, sold several thousand tons of metal that they had purchased as part of aid from the occupation authorities of the Zaporizhzhya region.

Very much not a Shoigu guy, non-MoD affiliated military channels liked him. Guess new leadership cleans house out of every possible rabble-rouser regardless of clique loyalty.

----

Also, today, Dossier (another independent Russian investigative media) released a lot of leaked info about new Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov, including even very personal emails (insanely Christian - not good, starts the day by playing with his cat - uhm, okay?). My unsourced guess is that Shoigu people helped with this as a brief PR retaliation.
https://dossier.center/belousov/ (Rus)

quote:

According to the source of �Dosier�, Belousov also supervised the activities of the founder of PMC �Wagner� Yevgeny Prigozhin.

�He and Prigozhin sometimes sat right in each other's arms - naturally, to each other on �you�, �Zhen� and all that. Their working meetings were like family gatherings with tea - they would informally talk through all the issues, then nod to the junior staff, and they would formalize everything into a real report. The system works in such a way that the First never makes a decision: a proposal comes in, Belousov works it out and prepares a report (usually signed by Belousov and Shoigu), and then the report goes to the president. Vladimir Vladimirovich only puts the note �agreed� on it. - and that's all.

Meetings with Belousov and his subordinates can also be found in the personal calendar of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which is at the disposal of the Center �Dossier�.

Belousov's interest in the topic of PMCs is also confirmed by his personal documents. In 2018, he had an analysis of the prospects for the development of private military companies in Russia on his desk. It argued that PMCs against the background of a new round of confrontation between Russia and America and England and the expansion of �gray zones� of international conflicts are particularly important. They should be formed �under the full control of the state and in accordance with the primary tasks of ensuring security,� the document said. PMC �Wagner� was noted there as a company supervised by the Ministry of Defense.

quote:

Apparently, Andrei Belousov spent almost the entire summer of 2018 repeating these prayers and vows - during this time, he sent himself the document at least eight times. This is not surprising: temptations surrounded the President's economic aide just then. So, it follows from the documents that during that period he had to urgently sell a villa in the Italian town of Forte dei Marmi on the Mediterranean coast. In the preliminary contract, which was drawn up for Belousov by an agent, the data of the potential buyer - a British citizen named Arthur Levin. By a strange coincidence, his British passport number is exactly the same as the stolen document used in 2013 by Israeli Mossad officers in the assassination of a Hamas leader in Dubai.

quote:

Belousov and Nikishina's correspondence suggests that they were concerned about communication in marriage. His wife regularly sends him articles on social behavior with titles like �How to Listen to Another Person� or �10 Rules of Etiquette�, as well as - with the note �very important� - advice like �Why you need to chase negativity out of your head and how to learn how to do it�. In Belousov's documents we also found a prescription for a tranquilizer prescribed for neurosis and increased anxiety. Belousov, in turn, sends his wife advice on how to recognize female abusive behavior, research on the tendency of cat lovers to schizophrenia, and photos of damage caused by a cat. Sometimes, however, they are replaced by sad love songs.

quote:

Among other principles of Andrei Belousov are fear of God, purity in actions and thoughts, honesty, moderation and non-harming (ahimsa). Ahimsa is a key virtue of Hinduism and Buddhism, its main meaning is the refusal to do harm to living beings. It is difficult to say how this principle fits with the position of defense minister in a warring country. However, Belousov still puts service - to God and the state - in the first place.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 21:12 on May 21, 2024

# ? May 21, 2024 21:10

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

quote:

starts the day by playing with his cat - uhm, okay?

Not seeing the problem. This is actually normal, grounded in reality person behavior.

# ? May 21, 2024 21:53

SpeedFreek: Jan 10, 2008; And Im Lobster Jesus!

I think it's noted because someone thought it was important to add in a way to make him seem relatable or to distract the reader from other things. For example when I'm home I wake up and play with the dog and cats for a little bit but I have no involvement in a war of aggression, as far as I'm aware.

# ? May 22, 2024 00:26

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

SpeedFreek posted:

I have no involvement in a war of aggression, as far as I'm aware.

This is also good!! Please continue not attempting to annex your neighbors!!

# ? May 22, 2024 01:16

Nitrox: Jul 5, 2002

You sick filth

# ? May 22, 2024 04:32

RBA-Wintrow: Nov 4, 2009; Clapping Larry

Volmarias posted:

This is also good!! Please continue not attempting to annex your neighbors!!

But consider your legacy! NovoVolmarias must expand to meet the needs of the expanding NovoVolmarias!

# ? May 22, 2024 07:01

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1793181161851650446?t=tfG3Dd7qZVBb6GuCivCT_g&s=19

# ? May 22, 2024 10:26

SpeedFreek: Jan 10, 2008; And Im Lobster Jesus!

I'm planning a three day weekend operation to annex the neighbors pole barn using cold war era farm equipment.

Those boats seem to have been very successful so far without missile launchers, I'll be waiting to see what kind of smoking accidents happen now.

# ? May 22, 2024 11:39

Nitrox: Jul 5, 2002

SpeedFreek posted:

I'm planning a three day weekend operation to annex the neighbors pole barn using cold war era farm equipment.

Those boats seem to have been very successful so far without missile launchers, I'll be waiting to see what kind of smoking accidents happen now.

I'm pretty sure those rockets are designed for taking down defending helicopters

# ? May 22, 2024 12:09

AtomikKrab: Jul 17, 2010; Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Nitrox posted:

I'm pretty sure those rockets are designed for taking down defending helicopters

Defending helicopters yes, but they will probably soften up the side of a ship as well for extra damage.

# ? May 22, 2024 12:32

ought ten: Feb 6, 2004

Nitrox posted:

I'm pretty sure those rockets are designed for taking down defending helicopters

Those are unguided rockets. Hard to imagine hitting a helicopter with an unguided rocket, especially from a rocking boat. They might serve to keep the helicopters back a bit, but I'm guessing they'll be used against area targets or at short range vs ships to keep defenders heads down or to damage superstructure.

E: There were pictures a week or two ago of a Ukrainian naval drone that maybe had anti-air missiles, maybe that's what you're thinking of.

ought ten fucked around with this message at 14:09 on May 22, 2024

# ? May 22, 2024 14:07

alex314: Nov 22, 2007

I imagine at worst those unguided missiles will screw up close range ship defense systems tracking.

# ? May 22, 2024 14:56

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

Also,warheads used to target aircraft are usually different than this designed to penetrate steel or aluminum armored hulls. The former generally try to create a dispersion of shrapnel (though impact warheads do exist); the latter are generally unitary warheads.

# ? May 22, 2024 15:03

Warbadger: Jun 17, 2006

Nitrox posted:

I'm pretty sure those rockets are designed for taking down defending helicopters

These are unguided rockets with impact fuses on a fixed mount from the look of it. They're not shooting down helicopters with that.

I'd guess it's either:
A) Meant to support a drone attack by giving some drones in the pack a bit of standoff distance, allowing them to soften up a ship from outside small arms/effective point defense range. Lots of the unsuccessful drone attacks are showing the drones getting shot up during the final couple hundred meters of the approach. Hitting the ship with a few 122mm artillery rockets before making that approach probably wouldn't sink the ship outright, but would probably make it a lot harder to stop any drones driving in to ram the ship afterwards.
B) Meant to target port facilities and shoreline defenses in harassment attacks. This opens up the potential to hit things like warehouses, ammunition storage, fuel storage, or docked ships inside a port's defenses that were previously unreachable behind barriers.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 15:50 on May 22, 2024

# ? May 22, 2024 15:40