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Nifty posted:Judging by this statement on the earnings call, it looks like FR is having some trouble meeting their debt obligations. If they don't sell all their assets that they want to, and at good prices, they could be looking at some problems. I would guess this is common among their peers as well? Right now with REITs everyone is having the problems you'd expect in this type of economy: low absorption/stagnant occupancy, and decreasing lease terms (basically like not being able to charge as much for rent to anyone wanting something more specific). FR has some debt problems and some unique demons they're up against, but overall seems to be handling them well. There is some good news with REITs in general that there isn't much in the pipe for new buildings or developments which I suppose helps FR slightly, but really helps the industrial market as a whole itself, except of course for the general contractors and tradesman who live by construction projects, tenant fitouts notwithstanding. There's no way to accurately know how its debt problems will play out and that is red flag number one that should make people consider how many shares they would like to buy, then buy half of that. If they solve their problems or bring them in line to a reasonable point, FR brings back its dividend for common shares and brings the value up, institutions take notice and can then purchase shares, and it's back to business as usual and big profit for shareholders. They don't solve their problems, they're a take over candidate. Either way, looking at all of the conditions it's a good idea to trade them and take advantage of the technicals until it seems like things would be stable enough to hold them and wait for a dividend return which would almost certainly lock the price into a higher average than where it is now. Makes no sense to hold from 4 up to 10, then back down to 4 again and if you make your money at 10 and it never goes back to 4 again, oh well. Edit: I should also add, that there are other REITs paying dividends consistently, not much fluctuation, but ultimately probably poised to increase in share value as well when the market recovers a bit. Historically commercial and industrial real estate lags the general market by 9 months to a year. I hate to emphasize one company among its peers when putting money in a REIT, isn't like putting money in Coca Cola or Johnson and Johnson. Industry consensus seems to think that by fourth quarter things should be improving noticeably so until then, it's the wild west. Jabbu fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Aug 5, 2010 |
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Aug 5, 2010 19:07
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For those of you who care about small-cap biotechs, I bought into ALXA today. Dilution hit but they've got a fair bit of time to run up to the PUFDA date in October. In at 2.49!
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Aug 5, 2010 21:04
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After looking at FR more, I did get in at 5.12. Up 2.3% from there right now. Heres hoping for the best for a couple weeks! Also, I bought RIG on Jun 10 for 51. I regretted it for a while but still held on to it for the fun and I feel that it has more upside potential so keeping it for a while still. Up 8.2% on that so far.
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Aug 6, 2010 02:47
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gentleguy fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Jan 16, 2013 |
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Aug 6, 2010 14:48
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No. 9 posted:Well picking up ATPG the other day was a smart move for me after all. The vol in ATPG can be gut-wrenching so if you get spooked easily you may want to take profits and run. However you can write calls to profit from that vol, if you play options. ATW should be a smoother ride back up, thought total return will be less than ATPG if that stock decides to run.
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Aug 6, 2010 17:00
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No. 9 posted:Well picking up ATPG the other day was a smart move for me after all. I hope you got out before earnings, that was brutal. I'm still seeing more room to fall before this moves up again.
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Aug 6, 2010 17:33
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I got out with something, not as great as I'd hope. I'm expecting it to sink some more during the last few hours here.
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Aug 6, 2010 19:39
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I'm not even sure if it belongs in this thread, but has anyone seen this before? The quote stuffing section has some really weird data that seems to point to a conclusion that you could effectively perform a denial-of-service attack on the exchanges by flooding them with quotes.
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Aug 6, 2010 20:55
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I've been trying (and failing) to dig up current market prices for obscure commodities like Marble and Granite Dimension Stone, Calcite, and Fledspars. Does anyone know where I can chase down these quotes? *EDIT* Nevermind I found the publication. Its USGS mineral commodity summaries Dr. Fraiser Chain fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Aug 7, 2010 |
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Aug 7, 2010 13:28
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HPQ seems like a compelling buy given the massive hit they just took. I read a pretty interesting article the other day involving the potential of wireless sensors for large industrial projects, of which HP has been very involved in developing. In the article was a quote comparing the sensors to the production of ink cartridges, both in terms of mass production and also profit margins. http://www.hpl.hp.com/news/2009/oct-dec/cense.html That is a link I found in 2 seconds of Google searching about it. Good synergies too, because you need a massive server system to handle the data those sensors produce.
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Aug 7, 2010 21:37
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Great headline.... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-the-government-create-a-backdoor-stimulus-2010-08-04
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Aug 10, 2010 15:09
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Dr. Jackal posted:am I the only one who noticed the 5% drop in NFLX today? I hear people are screaming that it's oversold and there are also people who are screaming that it's over valued. NFLX  closing my position at 123 (because I forgot to leave an order at 125).
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Aug 10, 2010 16:31
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for NFLX
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lol WDC $24.71 share price. $12 per share cash. $6 EPS.
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Aug 10, 2010 19:24
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Check the lol action of STX as well. The charts for the last 8 months nearly look identical with just different price points.
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Aug 10, 2010 19:28
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Fed once again takes steps to try and create another bubble economy. The funny part is now that the fed is super worried about deflation corporations will be too and put off the cap ex and hirings that everyone so desperately wants until they see evidence the fed program is working. Be pretty funny if China decided to start dumping tresuries. I don't think they quite have the domestic consumption yet to do that though.
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Aug 10, 2010 19:45
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Much as I would normally dismiss the discussion of tech stocks as  , I did pull the trigger on Seagate today. Hard drives are sufficiently commoditized nowadays, and even ignoring the fact that the company hasn't paid any taxes this year, I estimate a sustainable cash flow yield of about a billion dollars a year. This gives the company a multiple of 5.3, and if you take off the $2.2 billion in cash on the balance sheet right now, it becomes 3.1.I do hope Seagate will be around for longer than 3.1 years.
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Aug 11, 2010 04:10
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Well this was inevitable. Happy it happened though, I have been waiting for a buying opportunity for a while now.
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Aug 11, 2010 16:25
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What was inevitable? E: The dip? I'd wait for the S&P sub 1k (~950) before I saw a broad buying opportunity.
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Aug 11, 2010 19:23
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Well if BP can make new lows before/on next Friday I might be able to make some money. Haha. 
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Aug 11, 2010 19:24
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I'm kind of new to all this, like, still reading the neatest little guide new. Why is it bad that the government is reinvesting into treasuries? Well, bad enough to make everything go down 3% half way through the day. Wouldn't it be safe to say that stuff's going down today because it went up a lot in July? It's scary to think that like Jack said, that the governments trying to lead the way to a new bubble economy.
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Aug 11, 2010 19:55
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haximus prime posted:I'm kind of new to all this, like, still reading the neatest little guide new. It's an attempt to keep interest rates low, which benefit the US government certainly, but the theory is that it also helps borrowers across the country to benefit from the lower borrowing costs. However, I'm not sure that too many potential borrowers, apart from mortgages that are linked to Treasury rates, are going to benefit, especially since many other assets seem to be decoupled from the Treasury rate because of risk aversion. Lenders nowadays are risk averse and people everywhere seem to sitting on their capital rather than risking being the first one to invest. The outcome of such a situation is, of course, an increasing risk of deflation. I'm hoping instead to get moderate inflation, which actually forces people to get in there and gamble with their capital, and which would also be more effective in helping debtors, especially the US itself. I do think the trouble is that it smacks of desperation; the Fed has cut rates to nearly 0 and it hasn't worked, so now they're trying other tricks. At any rate, I read an article today that said, and I agree, that any help for the economy is going to come from Congress, not the Fed. Of course, I'm not an economist, but that never stops anyone else from talking about macroeconomics and it won't stop me.
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Aug 11, 2010 21:02
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The fed buying treasuries is also an avenue for injecting free money into the government coffers. As long as we aren't facing inflation risks, it is an easy way to get money moving through government avenues.
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Aug 11, 2010 23:16
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Anyone here play PAL?
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Aug 11, 2010 23:56
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What's the vibe on NVDA into earnings today?
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Aug 12, 2010 15:42
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Hobologist posted:Much as I would normally dismiss the discussion of tech stocks as GOONS!  Actually, the fallout from Cisco is kind of overstated I think.
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Aug 12, 2010 17:59
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Are there any accountants here who can possibly defend rule 470-20? As I understand it, the rule requires issuers of convertible debt and similar instruments to divide the proceeds between the debt and the option component. Meaning that if a company borrows $300 million of convertible debt due in five years, and based on comparing interest rates, similar nonconvertible bonds would sell for $250 million, then the company would record a liability of $250 million, and every year take $10 million in additional interest costs to bring the liability back up to $300 million by the time the debt is due. However, the obligation to repay the extra $50 million doesn't accrue in 5 years; it accrues immediately when the debt is issued (particularly since anyone familiar with options knows that it's typically better to sell the option than exercise it, so anyone with a convertible bond that's worth converting would probably rather write a call/buy a put and keep the bond, rather than actually convert it). This means that the company's liabilities are constantly understated, and that the firm has to record a noncash interest expense that doesn't exist to offset a discount in liability that never existed. Also, the allocation between debt and options is fixed when the bond is issued, so if the price of the company collapses the debt doesn't automatically move closer to its full value despite the fact that conversion is highly unlikely. I wasn't quite sure where to put this complaint, but I've been looking at ENER's bonds and we don't have an accounting thread.
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Aug 12, 2010 20:45
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Hobologist posted:GOONS!
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Aug 13, 2010 00:00
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abagofcheetos posted:Uh, haven't they been hiding the fact that most of their growth was from self-financing that was being held off the books? I think the haircut they took is pretty well stated for that. Not to mention John Chambers is basically considered *the* tech indicator (and many people seem to think he is one of the main macro indicators as well) and all he could do was say "i have no idea whats going to happen, visibility is nonexistent and everything is behaving weirdly"... Very bad stuff When was the last time CSCO made a 10% move in one day?
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Aug 13, 2010 00:18
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I didn't mean what happened with Cisco itself. I mean what it did to the rest of the sector. Seagate was doing very well before their announcement.
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Aug 13, 2010 02:41
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Ok, I am not pissed I didn't pick up ED when I originally thought about it. Was waiting for a dip to its moving average and it took off...
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Aug 13, 2010 14:10
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abagofcheetos posted:lol WDC Just picked it up. Wait for profits.
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Aug 13, 2010 20:51
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Synergy posted:Just picked it up. Wait for profits. The prices of drives are dropping fast again and wdc still has debt and no ssd plan that is worth a dime. Anyone looking at ycs on the japanese central bank announcing an easing soon after the 4.4% to 0.4% revision? Thats painful.
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Aug 16, 2010 05:54
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Christobevii3 posted:The prices of drives are dropping fast again and wdc still has debt and no ssd plan that is worth a dime. They have under $300 million in debt and are sitting on almost $3 billion in cash. They purchased an SSD company last year and while their first gen SSD drives were very underwhelming, I'd imagine their next release will be much more competitive now that they have had some dev time to work with. Seagate, however, has $2 billion in debt.
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Aug 16, 2010 14:53
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I've been looking at CIM which is a high yielding REIT. The stock price has traded sideways since '09 and it has a 17% yield. If the trend continues it looks like a great place to store some money for the long term.
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Aug 16, 2010 18:00
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Can someone explain to me why NFLX is still rising so much on no news? I bought in before earnings and it's like I've been riding a rollercoaster.
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Aug 16, 2010 21:26
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Free Gucci Mane posted:Can someone explain to me why NFLX is still rising so much on no news? I bought in before earnings and it's like I've been riding a rollercoaster. Because the typical market participant has an unreasonable fetish for growth and would rather risk losing money alongside everyone else than avoid losing money all by himself. Also, something about streaming.
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Aug 16, 2010 22:02
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Free Gucci Mane posted:Can someone explain to me why NFLX is still rising so much on no news? I bought in before earnings and it's like I've been riding a rollercoaster. It had pretty big news about an enormous streaming contract last week and hasnt stopped rising, it's really the first big and meaningful long term contract so it's a pretty big deal. I think it's overvalued, but it hasn't been rising on "no news"
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Aug 16, 2010 22:11
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greasyhands posted:It had pretty big news about an enormous streaming contract last week and hasnt stopped rising, it's really the first big and meaningful long term contract so it's a pretty big deal. I think it's overvalued, but it hasn't been rising on "no news" Good news is that it is now overbought (shown by that it is once again HTB for shorting) and so no worry on panic selling for a few days. I think some of the action for the last week with NFLX was because it got included into high freq. trading (showcased by the massive volume increase in the last week). Here is to hoping it doesn't break the 140!
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Aug 17, 2010 02:35
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Could someone link something that would help me understand this article? Thanks. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/weekly-cheat-sheets
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Aug 17, 2010 07:39
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Question for active traders, Does this happen often? I have a brokerage account with Vanguard to manage my own retirement, not trading but investing. Anyway, I went to do my usual purchase every 2 weeks and for the first time I used a Limit order, just to do it. The market price and the ASK price from Vanguard were pretty far apart, so I set my buy limit at 81.00, Market price dropped to 80.94, but their ASK never dropped below 81.08. Yet the trade was executed at the 81.00 price. is this common or how it works? I figured the trade would not execute until the ASK was at 81.00 or below.
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Aug 17, 2010 15:43
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