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Labours best bet is really to let Brexit happen and then see if they can get an election a year or two after.
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Aug 22, 2018 17:50
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I think we’re going to have to wait the whole three sadly, but we’ll get there.
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Aug 22, 2018 17:52
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Crowsbeak posted:Labours best bet is really to let Brexit happen and then see if they can get an election a year or two after. cannot wait for Labour to come to power after a massive recession and human/worker's rights furnacing
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Aug 22, 2018 17:59
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jBrereton posted:lol Yeah I'd rather we have an election now, but the governing party don't seem terribly thrilled with the idea
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Aug 22, 2018 18:11
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jBrereton posted:lol Well, even the best polls probably go them looking at a coalition, likley with snp and maybe even with Lib Dems if the election were held now or right before brexit, let's say they get some sort of deal, the economy will still be suffering and the entire time any attempts to make things better will hinge on relying on Blairites, and Lib Dems deciding to not scuttle any such plans that shift away from neoliberlaism. I love Corbyn, but he needs parliament support to make this work and without a workable majority he'll be forced into some coalition that will likley within two to three years rip itself apart and not be able to make the real changes that have to be made to Britain. For Corbyn or anyone else who recognizes Britain nees changes to win they ned the majority of the public to see that Labour is the only way. Look, tell me how he is able to make the drastic changes neceserry with a coalition that includes Lib Dems and a still active Blairite faction.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:13
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I'm not gonna read that whole word salad but the lib dems would rather coalition with the Tories than Labour, or nobody at the moment. Labour has to win-win any election.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:22
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jBrereton posted:I'm not gonna read that whole word salad but the lib dems would rather coalition with the Tories than Labour, or nobody at the moment. Labour has to win-win any election. Which they currently cannot, Period. Also I suspect you cannot read it because it challenges your views. Labour to win has to have a majority that cannot be sabotaged by the Blairites. This is the situation until the Balirites either leave the party through deselection and their threats of a splinter group, or recognize their complete impotence (lol) this will not change. I just don't see that changing in the time that still exists before Brexit. Crowsbeak has issued a correction as of 18:28 on Aug 22, 2018 |
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Aug 22, 2018 18:24
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If the Tories actually believed that they'd call another election in a heartbeat. It's not a sure thing but all polling suggests it is possible for Labour to win a general election.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:28
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Labour have also been massively building on their ground game in preparation for another election. Once things are go I wouldn't be surprised if they surged in ratings again
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Aug 22, 2018 18:32
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Irony Be My Shield posted:If the Tories actually believed that they'd call another election in a heartbeat. It's not a sure thing but all polling suggests it is possible for Labour to win a general election. They would? Perhaps I'm just suffering from watching from America but the Tory party seems to be rather incompetent.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:33
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Crowsbeak posted:They would? Perhaps I'm just suffering from watching from America but the Tory party seems to be rather incompetent. Well, that's where your thesis falls down. Corbyn has his problems, but the Tories have no leader that they actually support, and presently, no credible alternate leader they would support.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:39
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Why do people within the party seek to supplant Theresa May again? Once Brexit hits the fan, being in any position of leadership is gonna get toxic.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:43
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Avirosb posted:Why do people within the party seek to supplant Theresa May again? Once May signs the deal (or not) then her successor gets all the credit from businesses for selling everything for pennies, credit from the racists for deporting everyone they don't like and they can blame May for the terrible consequences of doing that.
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Aug 22, 2018 18:48
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I don’t think the polls now are gonna reflect the polls post Brexit very well.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:03
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Crowsbeak posted:Which they currently cannot, Period. Also I suspect you cannot read it because it challenges your views.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:05
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jBrereton posted:I can't read it because if you mention the lib dems more than once in a paragraph as if they are relevant I'm gonna assume your opinion is utter drivel i think we're going to have to brace for an SNP coalition of some flavor - i just can't see the math working out any other way. several points of labour's current numbers are trapped in useless SNP ridings.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:06
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jBrereton posted:I can't read it because if you mention the lib dems more than once in a paragraph as if they are relevant I'm gonna assume your opinion is utter drivel
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Aug 22, 2018 19:06
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CoolCab posted:i think we're going to have to brace for an SNP coalition of some flavor - i just can't see the math working out any other way. several points of labour's current numbers are trapped in useless SNP ridings.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:16
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CoolCab posted:i think we're going to have to brace for an SNP coalition of some flavor - i just can't see the math working out any other way. several points of labour's current numbers are trapped in useless SNP ridings. Yeah the SNP cannot be trusted. Frankly no left wing party should ever rely on secessionist parties to enact policies. Secessionist will lilky both ask for secession votes, that will weaken the left wing party, and two ask for special treatment for their region. Plus there is the fact that SNP are neolibs themselves with some soc dem trappings. Also I see that the reason Jbreton posted what he did was that he couldn't deal with a differing perspective.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:19
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Surely the SNP realise if they keep Labour out of power Labour just reruns the election with the message that voting for the SNP is risking a Conservative goverment
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Aug 22, 2018 19:20
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Crowsbeak posted:Yeah the SNP cannot be trusted. Frankly no left wing party should ever rely on secessionist parties to enact policies. Secessionist will lilky both ask for secession votes, that will weaken the left wing party, and two ask for special treatment for their region. Plus there is the fact that SNP are neolibs themselves with some soc dem trappings.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:20
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Fans posted:Surely the SNP realise if they keep Labour out of power Labour just reruns the election with the message that voting for the SNP is risking a Conservative goverment
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Aug 22, 2018 19:21
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jBrereton posted:If they keep Labour out of power, Labour doesn't get to rerun the election. If no one can form a government you kinda have to rerun it.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:22
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jBrereton posted:love that Internationalism With Chauvinistic Characteristics Hey, you're the one wanting to negotiate with neolibs.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:22
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jBrereton posted:who knows if they'd even be up for it, given their parties' completely opposing views on the SNP's whole raison d'être and the SNP probably not wanting to be a part of any government that at any time endorsed Brexit for the whole UK including Scotland. Maybe though. give labour and the snp a majority of seats and they'll loving work something out. i don't know how formal (or stable lol) it will be ie confidence and supply or what the gently caress ever - some poo poo's getting banged together.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:23
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like be realpoltikikal for a fuckin second here there's too much to both gain and lose for them not to play ball. it might even be useful for labour (big loving might)- they can dangle some super soft brexit (that the membership wanted anyway) in exchange for concessions and no longer be reliant the hooeys or even the skinners - "snp's twistin my arm, gotta!"
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Aug 22, 2018 19:27
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multijoe posted:Labour have also been massively building on their ground game in preparation for another election. Once things are go I wouldn't be surprised if they surged in ratings again Once the election rules go into effect, where you can't just make up anything you want and put it in the papers, Labour's poll numbers go way up, don't they?
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Aug 22, 2018 19:31
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prefect posted:Once the election rules go into effect, where you can't just make up anything you want and put it in the papers, Labour's poll numbers go way up, don't they? man this is something that people have taken on faith, it seems...suspect. our campaign finance election laws are violated literally constantly, why on earth would this one be respected?
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Aug 22, 2018 19:32
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Fans posted:If no one can form a government you kinda have to rerun it. Crowsbeak posted:Hey, you're the one wanting to negotiate with neolibs. The SNP are not mugs. They would not back up a Labour government, which they would be fighting to get votes from, if it didn't have a tangible benefit to itself and the people of Scotland. They would be judged by their voters harshly if they didn't. Same as Plaid. And in neither case is that unreasonable nor unexpected, much like people in England voting Labour and hoping to benefit from a Labour government.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:33
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CoolCab posted:man this is something that people have taken on faith, it seems...suspect. our campaign finance election laws are violated literally constantly, why on earth would this one be respected? That's true -- there have been a bunch of stories about cheating the election laws for Brexit stuff. It kind of seems enough that the vote shouldn't count, but that would only piss people off. 
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Aug 22, 2018 19:34
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CoolCab posted:man this is something that people have taken on faith, it seems...suspect. our campaign finance election laws are violated literally constantly, why on earth would this one be respected? This one can be seen and prosecuted in real-time, rather than a year after the fact when it doesn't even matter. jBrereton posted:I think it would kinda depend on which party got the most votes and whether a minority government of some kind could form without the Tories necessarily depending on votes from Scottish/Welsh nationalists. They could maybe trundle on if they lost another 10 seats but the LDs picked a couple of them up. I must be parsing this wrong because there is literally no way that Plaid would (or could tbh) ever support the Tories on anything ever.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:36
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prefect posted:Once the election rules go into effect, where you can't just make up anything you want and put it in the papers, Labour's poll numbers go way up, don't they? the general public has never liked Corbyn even if they generally like Labour policies. That's part of why Labour didn't win the last election. The Tories somehow managed to create a manifesto so awful and irredeemable even to Tory voters that they tried to claim its contents didn't exist, Theresa May didn't even show up to a TV debate, and Labour still didn't win.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:38
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Saith posted:I must be parsing this wrong because there is literally no way that Plaid would (or could tbh) ever support the Tories on anything ever.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:40
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prefect posted:Once the election rules go into effect, where you can't just make up anything you want and put it in the papers, Labour's poll numbers go way up, don't they? there isn't any election specific regulation of the press here is there? they're free to print whatever they want all year round
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Aug 22, 2018 19:41
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prefect posted:That's true -- there have been a bunch of stories about cheating the election laws for Brexit stuff. It kind of seems enough that the vote shouldn't count, but that would only piss people off.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:41
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Cerv posted:there isn't any election specific regulation of the press here is there? they're free to print whatever they want all year round no there def is some, it's why the BBC can't do a newspaper roundup on election day at least
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Aug 22, 2018 19:42
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jBrereton posted:why would they? Whether a candidate is liked doesn't really matter, what matters is if they have their party behind them. Note what was even more openly backstabbing Corbyn in 2017. The Blairites. A election in three years time could give Corbyn enough time to take the neceserry steps to purify the party.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:42
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Cerv posted:there isn't any election specific regulation of the press here is there? they're free to print whatever they want all year round
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Aug 22, 2018 19:43
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jBrereton posted:I'm saying I think they'd only get the okay to form a minority government if it didn't require Plaid/the SNP, and instead relied on the LDs and DUP to edge over the top Okay fair
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Aug 22, 2018 19:44
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jBrereton posted:why would they? the "labour didn't win, the conservatives lost!" narrative is sort of countered by voter turnout. if the contest was between two candidates their respective electorates didn't like we'd have depressed turnouts (see Trump/Clinton 2016 iirc). the exact opposite happened - both parties put more butts in booths than they had in decades - in labour's case in generations. despite the fact that the leadership candidates both had some abysmal personal ratings people did turn up to vote, which suggests people were engaged with the process - a ground game maybe, or better local candidates. this also has a significant demographic impact - if labour keeps winning every demo that was under 50 in 2017 they're in incredibly good shape.
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Aug 22, 2018 19:48
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