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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Typo posted:

doesn't look like they have entered the heavily urbanized part of north gaza yet

the fighting will be much more intense when/if they do, that's the area hamas should be trying to defend

Makes sense that they feel like they have a better chance in the city proper. I guess we'll have to wait and see if Israel has any plan of smoking Hamas out of those tunnels apart from just bombing until the entire city is uninhabitable 100 metres deep, and also if Hamas actually had a plan or just failed to prevent Israel from cutting off roads and are now scrambling to hold on to at least some urban areas.

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Ulio
Feb 17, 2011


Neurolimal posted:

Yeah, it's clearly evident even on that map that the IDF are actively avoiding urban spaces, sticking to farmlands and open areas where it's more difficult to attack without exposing yourself.

Even then, they're taking some significant casualties (as far as the risk-averse IDF go) just driving across grass.

Hezbollah is also making an announcement tomorrow; they might be avoiding any deep fights until they know what their next move is.

I think if you study any conflict even in modern history, defensive forces with less equipment can survive for much longer than anyone thinks. So ya IDF going into urban areas will be delayed until they "flatten" it more.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Noise Complaint posted:

Edit: I’m an idiot and the sarcasm flew over my head.

My sources say every palestinean carrys tactical nuke, recites from the isis instruction manual to destroy all jew, 5 times before breakfast including wind down, will cross 3 red line onto willos balls by 1600 zulu meridian greenwich. I am pro-life and take no pleasure in reporting this.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Nov 5, 2023

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

has there been any evidence of Hamas cutting people's heads off at all? seems like the IDF is trying hard to make an ISIS comparison.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang

mannerup posted:

nobody was assaulted unless you use the loosest definition of the term.

Someone deliberately stepping over and around people while they lay on the ground in an open public space where it isn't necessary to pass, and they are clearly trying to upset and disturb, as he is, could easily be taken as an aggressive act and cause apprehension of violence. In which case that would be an assault for the purposes of using reasonable force to make him stop. You don't actually have to speak a threat or throw a punch to commit an assault.

Ograbme
Jul 26, 2003

D--n it, how he nicks 'em
People still think Gazans invented the deadliest missile in history and accidentally hit themselves with it?

I said come in!
Jun 22, 2004

punishedkissinger posted:

has there been any evidence of Hamas cutting people's heads off at all? seems like the IDF is trying hard to make an ISIS comparison.

No evidence, IDF has faked a ton of evidence for october 7 for whatever reason.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Nov 5, 2023

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Beheading hasn't traditionally been a Hamas thing outside of very specific instances. That's typically been a staple of Al Qaeda and ISIS particularly. Al Qaeda used to make videos of doing it that would be played on the western news, even. Hamas, not so much

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Yeah prior to October 7th I'd say they enjoyed a relatively clean image compared to other Islamist groups, with a lot of people regarding them as more of a nationalist movement. But the many videos of them attacking civilians at the concert, killing entire families at Kibbutz and attempting to decapitate some poor Thai man with a garden hoe has probably shifted that quite a lot

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Yeah prior to October 7th I'd say they enjoyed a relatively clean image compared to other Islamist groups, with a lot of people regarding them as more of a nationalist movement. But the many videos of them attacking civilians at the concert, killing entire families at Kibbutz and attempting to decapitate some poor Thai man with a garden hoe has probably shifted that quite a lot

Yeah they really screwed that view up. Israel could have taken advantage of that but instead did what they are doing now.

Reik
Mar 8, 2004

Pvt. Parts posted:

Maybe but following him and continuing to surround him, which is what appears to be happening in the last video, is certainly instigating a confrontation. But it's hard to say from he heavily select pieces of media we are being shown and like the other poster said, these are very very low stakes and probably don't deserve as much attention as they are getting. College age students on both sides can be assholes. People on both sides can be assholes. It's not particularly important either way unless something inherent to Palestinian or Israeli support promotes "assholery", which I don' think is the case.

Sure, people on both sides can be assholes, but that's not what happened in this case. Before he showed up the protesters were at worst being cringe.

Halloween Jack
Sep 12, 2003
I WILL CUT OFF BOTH OF MY ARMS BEFORE I VOTE FOR ANYONE THAT IS MORE POPULAR THAN BERNIE!!!!!

Pvt. Parts posted:

Maybe but following him and continuing to surround him, which is what appears to be happening in the last video, is certainly instigating a confrontation.
No, it isn't. It's forcing him to leave so that he can't continue doxxing people.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Halloween Jack posted:

No, it isn't. It's forcing him to leave so that he can't continue doxxing people.

Not even forcing him to leave, just preventing him from entering the area or using his camera.

They're setting a screen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Screen_(sports)

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Nov 5, 2023

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I would expect so. It's what all the tunnels and stocked supplies are for. Might be a bad bet in this case since it's hard to do urban warfare if Israel simply flattens any point of resistance from the sky as soon as it's encountered.

I don't know the construction background there, but I've wondered why when they blow something up there's no, I don't know, rubble pile? I'd be more used to seeing. It's like everything in Gaza just turns to dust when it's hit. Even in some places in Ukraine like Bakhmut where it's mostly a moonscape there's still lots of standing shells of buildings despite being continuously shelled/bombed for more than a year. Lack of reinforcement in the concrete due to the blockade? Or is the difference between larger air dropped bombs and not hundreds of thousands of arty shells?

I'm not really sure what you're talking about. I've seen countless photos of rubble piles, bombed-out shells of buildings, and so on in Gaza. I even posted an article a couple weeks back about Gaza's booming rubble-scavenger industry, since the scarcity and expense of fresh construction material means that there's a significant market for recycling the wreckage between wars.

The Sean
Apr 17, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 45 hours!

Pvt. Parts posted:

Maybe but following him and continuing to surround him, which is what appears to be happening in the last video

Wait, you don't have all of the information and you are making a conclusion about what happened based on what it appears like to you? Shouldn't we all have more information before coming to a conclusion?

The Sean fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Nov 2, 2023

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

B B posted:

Israel has just provided incredibly solid evidence that Hamas terrorists were ordered to play with the severed heads of dead Israelis. The tweet contains audio only, but I am doing a :nms: to prevent any auto-play accidents for people who don't want to hear the audio.

https://twitter.com/Israel/status/1720101971430875584


drat it sure is crazy how we keep finding all these new radio/phone intercepts of Hamas fighters documenting their totally real crimes that weren't total fabrications nearly a month after the fact.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

it is pretty funny that the IDF expects us to believe they're able to intercept phone calls from every Hamas member like this, but only after Hamas routes their entire southern border in a surprise attack.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.
https://www.jns.org/hamas-leaders-feel-betrayed-by-iran-and-hezbollah/

Hamas leaders angry and scared that Iran and Hezbolloh gave the go-ahead to October 7th stating they'd support them in regards to any push back but having seen what the push back was both are trying to stay as far away from this as possible.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
Would a Palestinian Authority spokesman really know what Hamas is feeling about Iran and Hezbollah?



And does anyone really think Hamas expects loving Egypt or Jordan, or Saudi Arabia to do more than Iran or Lebanon?

The guy's at most playing to an Egyptian audience, garbage article.

WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Nov 2, 2023

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

punishedkissinger posted:

it is pretty funny that the IDF expects us to believe they're able to intercept phone calls from every Hamas member like this, but only after Hamas routes their entire southern border in a surprise attack.

To be fair, because of their position, I feel like they'd be able to intercept like everything? Wouldn't they control all the cell towers or at least all the backhaul to them?

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Would a Palestinian Authority spokesman really know what Hamas is feeling about Iran and Hezbollah?



And this is incoherent. The quote they're using in support of Hamas' supposed anger at Iran and Lebanon is about the Arab states.

Like it's perfectly possible, but that's a garbage article.

I felt like there was a component of Oct 7th that seemed a bit like Hamas was doing a Prigozhin. They expected that something bigger would happen and then it didn't materialize.

Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Nov 2, 2023

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Lid posted:

https://www.jns.org/hamas-leaders-feel-betrayed-by-iran-and-hezbollah/

Hamas leaders angry and scared that Iran and Hezbolloh gave the go-ahead to October 7th stating they'd support them in regards to any push back but having seen what the push back was both are trying to stay as far away from this as possible.
This ties into my theory that the leaders of Hamas are the stupidest motherfuckers on the planet.

quote:

A Hamas source, quoted in a Financial Times report on Friday, said the terrorist group’s leadership had not expected the United States to deploy two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region.
Who could've predicted that America, the country that always supports Israel no matter what, would continue to support Israel after a huge massacre was committed against them

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
I think it's pretty reasonable that Hamas is finding out how much of a useful pawn they are to Hezbollah (and by extension, Iran, and by further extension, the Arab states in the region) and it would not surprise me if this entire attack had been predicated on receiving support from Iran/Hezbollah/Houthis that was never really intended to be given. Everyone involved in planning that attack had to know what kind of retaliation was coming; even if Hamas was a bunch of brain dead potatos (and I do not believe they are, necessarily) then certainly Hezbollah leadership and Iranian leadership would realize the repercussions. I can very easily see Iran egging on a desperate Hamas to do this with basic weaponry material support and a little funding with the promise to send Hezbollah over the border on the big day and now here we are, and it seems Hamas is finding out how reputable and trustworthy their benefactors are/aren't. It would be very in character for Iran in particular to sacrifice a group of proxies if the outcome was sufficiently beneficial for them, and Iran definitely stands to benefit diplomatically from a raging, out of control Israel taking revenge on Hamas while putting a halt to the diplomatic normalization efforts in the region. Iran benefits from a weakened Israel and halting normalization is a smart way (if you're Iran) to hurt your biggest enemy without risking yourself militarily.

It's also possible that the leadership of Hamas is really just that stupid and launched the attack regardless. We will never really know, especially if Israel achieves its objectives and kills all of Hamas (in the sense of decision makers)

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Nov 2, 2023

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
Well we'll see when Nasrallah makes his speech today. It's perfectly possible they're deterred and it's only the Houthis and Iraqi Militias that declare, but there's definitely been a big build up and Hezbollah would look pretty loving weak making such a big show if they don't follow through

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

HonorableTB posted:

It's also possible that the leadership of Hamas is really just that stupid and launched the attack regardless. We will never really know, especially if Israel achieves its objectives and kills all of Hamas (in the sense of decision makers)

I don’t think it’s fair to claim they are stupid since they completely embarrassed a much more technologically advanced and well-funded enemy, and got them to over-react to the point where the entire world has now been awakened to the brutality the Palestinians people experience from their Zionist oppressors.

Also it’s very unlikely Hamas leadership will ever be destroyed by Israel.

One thing I am unclear on is the history of Hezbollah preventing the Zionists from encroaching on their land the same way they have settled on Palestinian land. Does the Beirut barracks bombing have any links to US forces aiding Israel?

BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Nov 3, 2023

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

All of the above presumes that Hamas were expecting the success they had, and that the plan wasn't to rattle the prison bars a bit, derail the Saudi normalisation talks, but otherwise rapidly return to the status quo ante.

The risk of Hezbollah causing trouble in the North is a factor that will always constrain Israel from wanting to concentrate entirely on Gaza, but Hezbollah absolutely does not want another fight with Israel and Hamas blew way past the threshold of Israel not being willing to pay the costs of another period of active conflict.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

HonorableTB posted:

I think it's pretty reasonable that Hamas is finding out how much of a useful pawn they are to Hezbollah (and by extension, Iran, and by further extension, the Arab states in the region) and it would not surprise me if this entire attack had been predicated on receiving support from Iran/Hezbollah/Houthis that was never really intended to be given. Everyone involved in planning that attack had to know what kind of retaliation was coming; even if Hamas was a bunch of brain dead potatos (and I do not believe they are, necessarily) then certainly Hezbollah leadership and Iranian leadership would realize the repercussions. I can very easily see Iran egging on Hamas to do this with basic weaponry material support and a little funding with the promise to send Hezbollah over the border on the big day and now here we are, and it seems Hamas is finding out how reputable and trustworthy their benefactors are/aren't.

That interview that people keep questioning the translation on with the Hamas rep, I believe he mentioned that one of the reasons for Oct 7 was to disrupt the Saudi negotiations, which serves Iran's interests, and now that those interests are served I can see their other proxies tell Hamas they're on their own. I know that Nasrallah is going to make a speech tomorrow but I bet it will be not much more than some bluster but no real action. They're more capable than in 2006 sure, but they also got a huge part of Beirut leveled the last time they tangled.

Like I've stated before it's more in the long list of why despite their outward statements, almost no one in that region really gives a poo poo about the Palestinian people themselves beyond how they can serve their own internal or broader regional interests. I read a story today about how Egypt's rolling up armor to the border to make sure the Palestinians don't get out.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
Wasn't the parking lot an ad hoc refuge camp?
Which is why it would be targeted?

And also the parking lot is the hospital. This is a pedantic argument over terms to obfuscate the depravity involved. Don't @ me on this last one.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

BUUNNI posted:

I don’t think it’s fair to claim they are stupid since they completely embarrassed a much more technologically advanced and well-funded enemy, and got them to over-react to the point where the entire world has now been awakened to the brutality the Palestinians people experience from their Zionist oppressors.

I think it is pretty difficult to call a single thing that happened here a win for the Palestinians in any way, shape or form. Maybe sometime down the line this will be the moment of a great change in the situation but at the moment it doesn't come across as 4D chess. I don't think Hamas was aiming for an over-reaction on this level and any benefit they gain from the attention doesn't seem like it will outweigh the sheer violence and destruction on the most vulnerable and innocent people that came from getting that attention.

Maybe in some far distant future the events that happened here will be remembered as the first step towards a huge shift, but I have my doubts and even if it does I'm not sure it's a huge shift that will help the Palestinians themselves.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
I just can't imagine not seeing this as a win for Hamas, even if you're extremely cynical they now have a new generation of supporters in Gaza and across the region. They're militarily making Israel look like a loving joke. And politically like rabid dogs. It's cost a heavy price and it will only continue getting heavier, but in terms of the actual struggle it's going to be an overwhelming victory. Israel is already talking about 'short ceasefires'.

Serotoning
Sep 14, 2010

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
HANG 'EM HIGH


We're fighting human animals and we act accordingly

The Sean posted:

Wait, you don't have all of the information and you are making a conclusion about what happened based on what it appears like to you? Shouldn't we all have more information before coming to a conclusion?

Literally my very next sentence was recognizing that we are probably being shown very select pieces of the encounter and that it's hard to be sure. I'll add that that's especially true when the video comes along with a pre-chewed narrative as well.

There is a difference between reporting what you have seen and then reporting what you speculate to be true about it, and reporting your speculation as the truth straight up without corroborating factors (generally the more impactful the claim the more evidence required). Also, it's OK for randos on the internet to be held to a different standard than major news outlets.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

I just can't imagine not seeing this as a win for Hamas, even if you're extremely cynical they now have a new generation of supporters in Gaza and across the region. They're militarily making Israel look like a loving joke. And politically like rabid dogs. It's cost a heavy price and it will only continue getting heavier, but in terms of the actual struggle it's going to be an overwhelming victory. Israel is already talking about 'short ceasefires'.

I'm not really sure where you're seeing them making Israel look like a loving joke, because from everywhere I look Israel is on a brutal campaign of slaughter, not a fight against a clever opponent who is defeating them. Like that's a major factor in this entire thing. This is a horrible butchery that can't be justified as 'we need to do this to beat our opponents.'

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

ImpAtom posted:

I think it is pretty difficult to call a single thing that happened here a win for the Palestinians in any way, shape or form. Maybe sometime down the line this will be the moment of a great change in the situation but at the moment it doesn't come across as 4D chess. I don't think Hamas was aiming for an over-reaction on this level and any benefit they gain from the attention doesn't seem like it will outweigh the sheer violence and destruction on the most vulnerable and innocent people that came from getting that attention.

Maybe in some far distant future the events that happened here will be remembered as the first step towards a huge shift, but I have my doubts and even if it does I'm not sure it's a huge shift that will help the Palestinians themselves.

Polls show a clear shift in the way Israel is perceived by westerners, which is what I'm referring to. A few years ago it would have been unthinkable that pubic opinion on Israel would shift but the change is happening much faster now, especially among younger generations. Israel's ability to do whatever it wants to the Palestinians without getting any backlash seems to be drawing to an end.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx

ImpAtom posted:

everywhere I look Israel is on a brutal campaign of slaughter

You're proving his point without realizing it.

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

ImpAtom posted:

I'm not really sure where you're seeing them making Israel look like a loving joke, because from everywhere I look Israel is on a brutal campaign of slaughter, not a fight against a clever opponent who is defeating them. Like that's a major factor in this entire thing. This is a horrible butchery that can't be justified as 'we need to do this to beat our opponents.'

There are videos of fighters running up to and attaching explosives to tanks with 0 infantry support. You may not be seeing this but the Israeli ground forces are currently a running joke and the air forces are seen as only good enough to bomb hospitals.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

ImpAtom posted:

I'm not really sure where you're seeing them making Israel look like a loving joke, because from everywhere I look Israel is on a brutal campaign of slaughter, not a fight against a clever opponent who is defeating them. Like that's a major factor in this entire thing. This is a horrible butchery that can't be justified as 'we need to do this to beat our opponents.'

They knew israel was going to bomb the poo poo out of them.

They considered that a better option than the status quo of slow genocide.

Israel was built on being an invicible military that protects their people and they clearly can't.

What they're doing now is losing them allies.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Hong XiuQuan posted:

There are videos of fighters running up to and attaching explosives to tanks with 0 infantry support. You may not be seeing this but the Israeli ground forces are currently a running joke and the air forces are seen as only good enough to bomb hospitals.

What the Israeli military lacks in quality they make up for in quantity (of bombs dropped on hospitals, UN schools, and refugee camps).

Viller
Jun 3, 2005

Proud opponent of Israeli terror and Jewish fascism!

Paladinus posted:

Looks like the IDF didn't encounter any significant resistance so far and managed to besiege Northern Gaza.


B-b-but SomethingAwful has said for 3 weeks that Israel would lose if they attempted anything!!!

PostNouveau posted:

What the Israeli military lacks in quality they make up for in quantity (of bombs dropped on hospitals, UN schools, and refugee camps).

What does Hamas have more then the IDF, please enlighten me

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

BUUNNI posted:

Polls show a clear shift in the way Israel is perceived by westerners, which is what I'm referring to. A few years ago it would have been unthinkable that pubic opinion on Israel would shift but the change is happening much faster now, especially among younger generations. Israel's ability to do whatever it wants to the Palestinians without getting any backlash seems to be drawing to an end.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/472070/democrats-sympathies-middle-east-shift-palestinians.aspx
Yeah that was a shift that was happening prior to October 7th (this poll was taken in March). I wonder what the effect of that attack was on US attitudes towards Israel?
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-the-israel-gaza-war-changing-us-public-attitudes/

Ah... hm.

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