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SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

Hannibal Rex posted:

The US has blown up the critical infrastructure of NATO allies during an international crisis that everyone is afraid could escalate into nuclear war a million times before? Can you narrow down a bit what you're thinking of?

The U.S. has done covert actions a million times in the past and specifically sabotaged Russian energy infrastructure inside Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html

Obviously not everyone is sufficiently afraid or at least believes the rewards outweigh the risks, hence the continued proxy war that has brought us closer than at any time since the so-called "Cuban" missile crisis that was instigated by NATO missiles in Turkey. Germany is at best collateral damage or needed to be reminded of which sphere of influence they belong to. The U.S. threatened to bring an end to the relationship years before the war in Ukraine and NordStream 2 specifically in the months preceeding it.

I'm not saying Hersh's account is fact, I'm saying the allegation is not equal to the contents of the loving Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

Nenonen posted:

[image of a stalinist cat playing harmonica and singing a stalinist song]

I think you got probated for that joke already and I got probated for paraphrasing Miguel Ferrer's character in Twin Peaks in response.

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Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

thotsky posted:

You believe the Russian state operatus are conducting info ops aimed at... terminally online communists?

Because they're effective agents for Russia, no less?

Not directly but I wouldn't be surprised if there weren't state sponsored groups that do that kind of online outreach.

My dad is a Russian ex-pat and is a terminally online idiot and some time not too long after the Russian "Special Operation" began, he asked me if I wanted to help "them" with translating Russian state propaganda into nordic languages.
Unfortunately, I didn't inquire who "they" were so I don't know the details besides that it was some sort of online group effort.

BlankSystemDaemon
Mar 13, 2009




Grimnarsson posted:

It's more than enough criticism for Hersh's article in my opinion that he relies on one anonymous source in this and whenever an article relying on an anonymous source in some Western intelligence agency etc might say something about our enemies being up to no good it will be, and hopefully has been in the past, similarly dismissed.
It's not just the anonymous source, it's not just the failure to follow up on the most basic fact checking, it's not just that a published journalist is suddenly using a website without any editorial oversight, it's not even the many ways in which the few facts presented have failed to pass even the most rudimentary of OSINT research done on publicly available data.

Using [an] anounymous source(s) isn't a problem if you're doing it in conjunction with firmly established facts, failure to follow up on basic facts isn't a problem if you're using publicly available data, publishing on a website without editorial oversight isn't a problem if you don't make mistakes that would be caught by editorial oversight, and having facts fail OSINT research isn't a problem if there is non-public evidence that others can be allowed access and for which they can stake their reputation.
Put another way, none of these are red flags on their own - but when all of them are combined, it's hard to do anything but dismiss it out of hand.

The problem, as I see it - and this only really crystalized for me as I was lying in bed yesterday - is that if anyone like Seymore Hersh can come along and, despite of the existing investigations that've been done, cause such widespread discussion by simply posting something with all the red flags listed above, it's a clear indication that there's a very clear need for a much more detailed investigation than have already been done, and which is undertaken by a much more unimpeachable body.

Esran posted:

:words: by a WaPo journalist and a quotes by an European official
It seems to me that Russia has plenty to gain by simply sowing distrust among allies, when Russia regards all of the allied as enemies.

After all, making your enemies distrust their allies is a tactic so old, that the name of the first person to come up with idea is no longer remembered.

Additionally, I'm sure Russia wouldn't mind causing the general populace of Europe to become increasingly unhappy as a result of economic hardships that a spike in energy prices.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

A Buttery Pastry posted:

If there's one thing Germany has proven to be, it's being a country of short-sighted politicians with no sense of strategic thinking at all, very publicly influenced by corrupt former politicians. I think it's entirely fair to expect the worst from Germany in this regard.

Also, don't imply I believe in the Norwegian frogmen story just because I think it would be rational from the American perspective to gently caress that pipeline up.

I don't think it is fair to expect them to be both politically and economically suicidal to a ridiculous degree. What actual advantage would ANY German politician see from rebuilding relations with Russia through importing gas again? If they are suicidal enough to dismantle all the work done to remove German dependency on Russian fossil fuels, why wouldn't they just build a new pipeline? Where would this politician find the support necessary for those things? They would just assume it was an U.S. warning despite categorical U.S. denial and operate based on that?

It wouldn't be rational from the American perspective because they would be getting nothing they aren't getting otherwise.

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Feb 12, 2023

Megamissen
Jul 19, 2022

any post can be a kannapost
if you want it to be

Somaen posted:

This doesn't pass a simple risk assessment smell test. US risks: global reputational and relationship damage with allies, Russia flips its poo poo and starts threatening nuclear war or retaliating by damaging critical infrastructure. Reward: status quo, Germany potentially doesn't buy gas in case it wants to? Same can be achieved with sanctioning nord stream with less risk and more negotiation room. (Germany can still keep buying russian gas because stupid americans failed to blow up nord stream 2)
Russian risks: reputational damage minimal because who gives a poo poo, potential rewards: gas crisis in Germany forcing them to buy gas over nord stream 2 or all the other pipelines, potential to blame US/Norway/Algeria

And yes, the officials conducting the investigation need precise and hard evidence before making accusations compared to an internet rando that can evaluate the geopolitical logic and make educated guesses

ns2 had one of its two lines bombed aswell, and we dont know if one was left intact intentionally or if the culprits meant to destroy it too but something went wrong

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I still question whether this would ruin relations with NATO allies for the US. Might not make that many friends in Germany, but a lot of NATO would support the US in this. It also signals to Germany that the US is done with it playing footsies with Russia, which might be (seen to be) worth it even if it pissed Germany off.

Like, what is Germany gonna do? Leave NATO? At worst it's gonna continue doing what it has been doing, that is, not being very supportive of US foreign adventures.

Exactly, Germanys foreign policy with regards to russia has been atrocious and nordstream 2 was just furthering that particular dependency. Lots of people would probably like to thank whomever saved Germanys neighbors from Germany, AGAIN.

Esran
Apr 28, 2008

BlankSystemDaemon posted:

It seems to me that Russia has plenty to gain by simply sowing distrust among allies, when Russia regards all of the allied as enemies.

After all, making your enemies distrust their allies is a tactic so old, that the name of the first person to come up with idea is no longer remembered.

Additionally, I'm sure Russia wouldn't mind causing the general populace of Europe to become increasingly unhappy as a result of economic hardships that a spike in energy prices.

It seems incompetent to do a false flag and not leave any evidence pointing at your enemy (or at least at anyone but you), but yes, this is a possible explanation.

Clarifying my position: I'm not saying the US definitely did it, or that Russia definitely didn't do it. I'm saying that it's stupid to assert that people who think the US is involved might as well be 9/11 truthers, because the US clearly benefits from this situation, and there's no real evidence pointing to someone else. The same is true of Russia, though I think it's much less of a clear cut win for them.

Threadkiller Dog
Jun 9, 2010
If the US actually did this I'd assume it was with Germanys blessing. You know if nordstream was actually considered such a liability and complication.

But always bet on the family so Germany would be more likely to just off the thing themselves.

The Baltic sea is certainly a much less annoyingly exciting place these days.

BlankSystemDaemon
Mar 13, 2009




I don't see why anyone has to make a claim to who done it, before we have conclusive evidence.

I understand the desire to pin the tail on the donkey, but I'm not sure it accomplishes anything.

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

DarkCrawler posted:

I don't think it is fair to expect them to be both politically and economically suicidal to a ridiculous degree.

That's hilarious.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

SplitSoul posted:

That's hilarious.

Ridiculous degree meaning there is no paradigm in the foreseeable future where a German politician of any stripe would be suggesting to rebuild the reliance of natural gas from Russia. Until there is, hilarious is pretending that U.S.. fears that extremely unlikely and unsuccessful possibility enough to do a Norwegian frogman false flag attack only to deny it.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

DarkCrawler posted:

I don't think it is fair to expect them to be both politically and economically suicidal to a ridiculous degree. What actual advantage would ANY German politician see from rebuilding relations with Russia through importing gas again? If they are suicidal enough to dismantle all the work done to remove German dependency on Russian fossil fuels, why wouldn't they just build a new pipeline? Where would this politician find the support necessary for those things? They would just assume it was an U.S. warning despite categorical U.S. denial and operate based on that?

It wouldn't be rational from the American perspective because they would be getting nothing they aren't getting otherwise.
The point is to make it very clear that the US will not accept this bullshit anymore, to encourage the German political establishment to purge itself of anyone who might conceivably attempt to restart this poo poo. That's not just the gas, but also the whole Russo-German economic integration project and general russophile approach so popular in Germany.

His Divine Shadow posted:

Exactly, Germanys foreign policy with regards to russia has been atrocious and nordstream 2 was just furthering that particular dependency. Lots of people would probably like to thank whomever saved Germanys neighbors from Germany, AGAIN.
Yeah, I don't think people have really grasped how bad Germany has been at diplomacy in the last few decades. Germany has gone to considerable lengths to isolate itself within the EU, with its handling of both Russia and the European economy, to the point that the US has a lot of leeway to bring Germany to heel without it resulting in blowback from anyone else.

Nenonen posted:

Do I have to spell everything out? I mentioned it as an example of fabricated story produced by Russia, which was then very effectively spread by others. Russia knows which strings to pull to make tankies dance for them.
You do realize the comparison is insanely disproportionate, right? You could've gone for a much more down to earth comparison, but instead you effectively put this frogman story at the level of a publication that basically established modern antisemtism.

A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Feb 12, 2023

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

DarkCrawler posted:

Ridiculous degree meaning there is no paradigm in the foreseeable future where a German politician of any stripe would be suggesting to rebuild the reliance of natural gas from Russia. Until there is, hilarious is pretending that U.S.. fears that extremely unlikely and unsuccessful possibility enough to do a Norwegian frogman false flag attack only to deny it.

It was mostly the notion about economic suicide I was laughing at.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

rust martialis pm-ed me and asked me to post this youtube video of a guy called anders puck nielsen apparently about hybrid warfare itt, so here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeP_ZZbBIl4

i assume it's some attempt at a burn, but i haven't watched it yet and it seemed courteous to post it when asked

V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Feb 13, 2023

Esran
Apr 28, 2008
True friendship is when people will post for you when you're in cat jail.

Jon Pod Van Damm
Apr 6, 2009

THE POSSESSION OF WEALTH IS IN AND OF ITSELF A SIGN OF POOR VIRTUE. AS SUCH:
1 NEVER TRUST ANY RICH PERSON.
2 NEVER HIRE ANY RICH PERSON.
BY RULE 1, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO PRESUME THAT ALL DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS HELD BY A WEALTHY PERSON ARE FRAUDULENT. THIS JUSTIFIES RULE 2--RULE 1 NEEDS NO JUSTIFIC



https://twitter.com/TheWarNerd/status/1624873642910707713

The War Nerd @TheWarNerd
Here it is: Seymour Hersh exclusive on RWN.
Free & unlocked, courtesy of our subscribers..

https://www.patreon.com/posts/radio-war-nerd-78596220

Jon Pod Van Damm
Apr 6, 2009

THE POSSESSION OF WEALTH IS IN AND OF ITSELF A SIGN OF POOR VIRTUE. AS SUCH:
1 NEVER TRUST ANY RICH PERSON.
2 NEVER HIRE ANY RICH PERSON.
BY RULE 1, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO PRESUME THAT ALL DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS HELD BY A WEALTHY PERSON ARE FRAUDULENT. THIS JUSTIFIES RULE 2--RULE 1 NEEDS NO JUSTIFIC



quote:

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1624909103393828866

Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled
One of many smears of Hersh's Nord Stream scoop is the disingenuous claim he "used only 1 source" b/c he only quotes 1 source. Nowhere does Hersh's article say he "relied on 1 source" as so many hacks & bellingcops claim. Here's Hersh's memoir on using/protecting 2nd sources:


It turns out among other things that people in the pipeline industry talk to other people.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

A Buttery Pastry posted:

The point is to make it very clear that the US will not accept this bullshit anymore, to encourage the German political establishment to purge itself of anyone who might conceivably attempt to restart this poo poo. That's not just the gas, but also the whole Russo-German economic integration project and general russophile approach so popular in Germany.

You say the point is to make it very clear. How is a clandestine operation that they will deny
making it "very clear"? Why would a clandestine operation that they will deny be more clear than the billions and billions in weapons directed at Russian individuals? Why would blowing up the pipeline and again, denying it, be more "encouraging" towards a "purge" than directly and in no unclear terms stating they should get rid of pro-Russian elements, like they have been doing this far?

The thing you state as their motivation is already accomplished. Thus it will not serve as a valid reason for them to engage in it, unless you can articulate what they are gaining that they would not be gaining otherwise.

And who do you conceive would be starting Russo-German economic integration after all that has happened?

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Feb 13, 2023

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

V. Illych L. posted:

rust martialis pm-ed me and asked me to post this youtube video of a guy called anders puck nielsen apparently about hybrid warfare itt, so here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeP_ZZbBIl4

i assume it's some attempt at a burn, but i haven't watched it yet and it seemed courteous to post it when asked

He's a serving Danish naval officer/military analyst who posts his analyses of military issues on YouTube.

Thanks for the assist!

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Rust Martialis posted:

He's a serving Danish naval officer/military analyst who posts his analyses of military issues on YouTube.

Thanks for the assist!

don't mention it

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

Taxes are too high.

https://finans.dk/erhverv/ECE15012170/maersk-betaler-mindre-end-3-promille-i-skat-til-danmark/

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

If companies are taxed any higher, they'll flee the country! YOU WILL REGRET THIS!

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Esran posted:

I don't think your analysis holds water.

The benefits to the US of the pipelines being destroyed are not "status quo".

How would the US sanction Nord Stream in a way that prevents Germany from buying Russian gas, without also pissing off Germany? Remember, the goal in this hypothetical would be to drive a wedge between Germany and Russia.

You claim the risk to Russia is minimal. Do you feel that there is no risk to Russia in attacking infrastructure which could be easily interpreted as belonging to a NATO member?

You seem to be saying that in order to force Germany to buy gas from Russia, Russia is blowing up its own pipelines that were not delivering gas, in order to create a gas crisis in Germany that will force Germany to buy gas via Russia's other pipelines. That's nonsense. If the destruction of the NS pipelines creates a gas crisis in Germany, it will be because Germany needed Russian gas via NS. Blowing up the pipelines doesn't force Germany to buy more gas from Russia than they would have otherwise, it just moves the delivery from NS to other pipelines.

The officials conducting the investigation do need evidence before making accusations. But when you have no evidence, you say "We're not sure yet". What's the motivation for them to say "We now doubt Russia was responsible, also the rationale that it was Russia never made sense to me"?

Making up increasingly unlikely hypotheticals where a conspiracy makes sense ignoring the big picture and actual context (Germany was firmly on board with the us in July) is how you get to explaining how there could be some scenarios where it makes sense that bush did 9/11 and it usually shows by the increasing amount of paragraphs you need to describe those scenarios

teen witch
Oct 9, 2012
So the economy is uh, in the shitter and we’re having a rather warm February? we gonna uh, we gonna chat about that?

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

teen witch posted:

So the economy is uh, in the shitter and we’re having a rather warm February? we gonna uh, we gonna chat about that?

So business is as usual, you mean? Choo choo, all about the apocalypse train!

teen witch
Oct 9, 2012

Jack Trades posted:

So business is as usual, you mean? Choo choo, all about the apocalypse train!

But it’s like bad like real bad. Like I said it was bad before but hachi machi it’s bad.

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

teen witch posted:

But it’s like bad like real bad. Like I said it was bad before but hachi machi it’s bad.

Okay...I hear you and your opinions are valid, but consider this...the shareholders are getting A LOT of value. Isn't that ultimately more important?

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

teen witch posted:

But it’s like bad like real bad. Like I said it was bad before but hachi machi it’s bad.

Have you considered becoming CEO of an energy company? Then you might not be as worried.

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer

Jack Trades posted:

So business is as usual, you mean? Choo choo, all about the apocalypse train!

I beg of you to craft a new post

teen witch
Oct 9, 2012

Beeswax posted:

I beg of you to craft a new post

You first

E: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/fler-nyinskrivna-pa-arbetsformedlingen-och-allt-fler-varsel

Oh cool this, this looks great

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer
I'm undone

edit: honestly though, I think my post history itt is fairly varied apart from begging the doomposters to change the record

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

Beeswax posted:

I beg of you to craft a new post

I will once it stops being true.

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer

Jack Trades posted:

I will once it stops being true.

I probably won't, at least for a long-rear end time, but in the meantime it makes things actively worse for yourself as well as everyone around you to just repeat hellworld mantras. No one benefits from it. It's miserable.

The obvious response is "yeah but I'm miserable" but that's not an issue for a politics thread, it's for a therapist

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

Beeswax posted:

I probably won't, at least for a long-rear end time, but in the meantime it makes things actively worse for yourself as well as everyone around you to just repeat hellworld mantras. No one benefits from it. It's miserable.

The obvious response is "yeah but I'm miserable" but that's not an issue for a politics thread, it's for a therapist

Okay, and who benefits from not talking about it?

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer
Everyone! Because non-stop posting "we're all dead and this is hellworld" over and over and over makes the thread more miserable. It has zero positive impact on the world but has tangible negative impact - not just on the people who have to put up with reading it but on yourself for indulging in it and wallowing in misery.

The world is bad, but there's no need to recreationally make it worse.

Jack Trades
Nov 30, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 18 hours!

Beeswax posted:

Everyone! Because non-stop posting "we're all dead and this is hellworld" over and over and over makes the thread more miserable. It has zero positive impact on the world but has tangible negative impact - not just on the people who have to put up with reading it but on yourself for indulging in it and wallowing in misery.

The world is bad, but there's no need to recreationally make it worse.

I'll be fair and agree that the head-in-sand proposition is indeed very on brand for a Scandinavian thread.

EDIT: Also protip, the forums have a solution for wanting to see a particular poster's posts. It's called the Ignore button.
Learning how to use that feature makes all social media experience way more tolerable. I highly recommend it.

Beeswax
Dec 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer

Jack Trades posted:

I'll be fair and agree that the head-in-sand proposition is indeed very on brand for a Scandinavian thread.

EDIT: Also protip, the forums have a solution for wanting to see a particular poster's posts. It's called the Ignore button.
Learning how to use that feature makes all social media experience way more tolerable. I highly recommend it.

I'm obviously not saying that we should ignore problems. But sitting around posting "lol we're in hell" all day is far worse than ignoring them because it makes no attempt to change anything for the better. It's just embracing despair and then spending your time propagating it rather than trying to make any sort of positive impact. It's awful.

"Touch grass" has obviously become an empty internet catchphrase at this point, but the larger point behind it is true: that it is unhealthy to obsessively doomscroll and engage in the ritualistic exchange of misery that comes with it.

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
I'm old enough to remember when certain posters in this thread predicted that Stockholm would lose 10% of its population during Covid, or was it 90% of the elderly? Gosh, the predictions (all slammed down with Trumpian certainty) aged so well!

But yeah, doomposting only takes us so far.

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Kamrat
Nov 27, 2012

Thanks for playing Alone in the dark 2.

Now please fuck off
Doesn't seem to be much we can do apart from a revolution, even if Scandinavia as a whole went positive for the environment we still have the rest of the world loving us over.

I understand doomerism since it looks like we're doomed in the long run, I'm already pretty depressed because of so little snow, winter used to be my favorite part of year, now it just reminds me of what is to come. But you are right, endlessly posting about it doesn't help, it just makes everyone sad so I'll stop it here.

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