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quote:RUT Bear  Stock humor.
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Aug 26, 2010 00:34
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Dr. Jackal posted:someone explain to me how ATVI has 0 debt/asset but TTWO is at 11.6 (uncontrolled spending?) I wouldn't ATVI is looking more lucrative for long-term holds. TTWO does have a better chance of spiking up with some good news. I don't think that RIG is out of the woods yet with regards to liability. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ace9e58-b09d-11df-8c04-00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058 I think that they are at a decent price right now, but am not ready to put my money down. On the other hand, there are reports that the offshore drilling moratorium will be lifted sometime in October going into the elections so that it isn't held up as an issue for the Dems. If that happens, RIG jumps.
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Aug 26, 2010 04:08
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Plastic Jesus posted:Closed my Sep 10 RUT bear call spreads yesterday, picked up Aug4 10 IWM bull call spreads in their place. Opened Aug4 10 GLD bull call spreads, bot SLV outright and opened Oct 10 bear call spreads in FXI (mostly as a hedge against the IWM position). Looks like lucky timing, but I'll take it. I actually bought SLV outright this morning as well. I'm curious as to why you chose FXI as a hedge to IWM, though? destructo posted:Picked up some PAL today at 2.98, along with FBP @ 0.39 FBP seems like a risky play, whats your reasoning?
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Aug 26, 2010 06:11
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Nifty posted:I actually bought SLV outright this morning as well. I'm curious as to why you chose FXI as a hedge to IWM, though? It's only partially a hedge against IWM. The bullish IWM options are of the craps-table weekly variety, FXI short position expects a downtrend later this fall. The "hedge" thinking is that both the RUT and China are victims of the market's appetite for risk and FXI tends fall faster than the RUT. So long-dated options v. stupidly short-dated in case GDP numbers are a catastrophe. Unless something changes I do intend to keep my FXI position. Hey everyone's got a "Black Swan Hedge" these days and short FXI is mine! Actually, I hope to use this leg into an Iron Condor if things don't go tits-up.
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Aug 26, 2010 06:40
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Not that it's relevant to me for another few months, but does anyone have thoughts on MOTR? Pretty top heavy on the VC, but they're finally making money and revenue growth projections are pretty optimistic (38 mil for Q3 from 30 mil in Q2). It seems like a favorite to short in this kind of market and considering the way the IPO fizzled (from 250 mil to 50 mil) but a lot of the investors are institutions and big players like Icahn so could there be some kind of short squeeze planned? I've read docs on how it's in the interest of ownership/management to underprice IPOs strategically to create momentum for when the lockup period expires.
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Aug 26, 2010 14:30
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Nifty posted:I actually bought SLV outright this morning as well. I'm curious as to why you chose FXI as a hedge to IWM, though?
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Aug 26, 2010 14:36
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I mentioned ARMH before and its gotten some good press recently regarding entering the data center / virtulaization market "soon". Anyone have thoughts?
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Aug 26, 2010 18:02
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antishock posted:I mentioned ARMH before and its gotten some good press recently regarding entering the data center / virtulaization market "soon". Anyone have thoughts? As a company, I like ARMH's current position. They should do well for the next 3-5 years. However, technology changes quickly these days, and it's anyone's guess what their position will be beyond that timeframe. As a stock, it's way overpriced on a fundamental basis. There's already some pretty huge expectations baked into the stock price, and personally I wouldn't dream of buying it at these levels. The chart on this looks like it's just going to keep plowing upward, and it very well may, it's just not for me.
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Aug 26, 2010 21:49
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What do we think about AMEX:ANV ? I'm not in on it, which is a real shame because it's performing admirably, but I think it may plateau for the forseeable future. Any input?
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Aug 26, 2010 23:50
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I'm looking at WDC and STX at the moment. Cramer says they're value traps, but I dunno. They're very enticing at current levels.
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Aug 27, 2010 00:24
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Well, Seagate trapped me a couple weeks ago, I'll admit, but I do think they are attractive stocks all things considered, given the massive piles of cash they both have built up. It is easy to get hung up on their late arrival to the solid state market, but I don't think the hard disk is going away anytime soon. Taking Seagate as an example, they have a $4.78 billion market cap, and $2.38 billion in cash on the books, which is far above historical levels (typically ~$1 billion). I estimate based on historical results that they have about $1 billion in earnings power going forward, at least for now, so taking away $1.38 billion in unnecessary cash gives them a price/earnings power of 3.4, which is all but impossible to believe. So it may be that Jim Cramer is acting on the principle of "If it looks too good to be true, it is," and furthermore I don't see the potential for much hard drive growth in future considering how the trend in hard drive prices is down, pretty much inevitably. But it's hard to see prices and volume falling that far, that fast and since speculators and especially Cramer's audience have a lunatic fetish for growth, it's easy to see why he wouldn't like something with the obvious potential for antigrowth. But hell, we only need 3.4 years.
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Aug 27, 2010 00:51
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The Good posted:I'm looking at WDC and STX at the moment. Cramer says they're value traps, but I dunno. They're very enticing at current levels. Neither have a solid SSD plan yet and are not pushing hard. Neither has released anything for the server side. Outside of that I do not see growth unless they outright purchase someone who isn't sitting on their rear end. Also Pershing Square is short BP now...
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Aug 27, 2010 01:07
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WDC looks like a no brainer value pick. It might not appreciate quickly, but I find it very hard to believe that you won't be significantly ahead a couple years from now if you buy today.
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Aug 27, 2010 01:08
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One of the problems with looking at hard drive manufacturers is that demand for their products may be falling. The trend with computing nowadays is to move as much stuff as possible online. This means that lots of people will be getting phones / tablets / netbooks / laptops with smaller local storage, or even just small flash drives. "But Dr. Eldarion," you say, "don't those online service providers need to buy hard drives?" Well, yes, but they'll utilize a lot more of the space than regular users would. Instead of ten million people having 500GB drives that are 95% free space, you'll have ten companies each having 50,000 2TB drives that are 75% full.
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Aug 27, 2010 01:18
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And local storage is moving to SSD, and these guys seem to have no clue w/ respect to that. The raptor will soon be dead.
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Aug 27, 2010 01:31
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Yeah, instead of sitting on cash one of them should buy out one of the small ram makers that have an ssd line.
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Aug 27, 2010 01:39
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WDC has a SSD division. It may not be top of the line yet, but at least they understand what the future holds. I see it as a great value buy. Cramer loves to predict the future of the culture and he disregards the fundamental soundness of several companies in the process.
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Aug 27, 2010 06:53
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Synergy posted:WDC has a SSD division. Other companies may have better SSD tech (SandForce, Indilinx) but they can't compete with WD's and Seagate's manufacturing and distribution capabilities.
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Aug 27, 2010 06:56
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Big moves yesterday for both hard drive manufactures. Anyone in on it?
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Aug 28, 2010 20:53
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If by in it, you mean that I didn't sell Seagate as it was falling, then yes.
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Aug 28, 2010 23:13
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I think there's at least one other person here interested in BNVI. Craziness going on after hours, first announcing a 1 for 5 reverse split, then waiting a few hours to announce they've received positive guidance from the FDA on Menerba's P3 trial. I have no idea what to expect from this tomorrow.
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Aug 31, 2010 01:11
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Star War Sex Parrot posted:Other companies may have better SSD tech (SandForce, Indilinx) but they can't compete with WD's and Seagate's manufacturing and distribution capabilities. On that note, does anyone have any thoughts on OCZ? They seem to be decently positioned in the SSD market and seem to be focusing on it more and more.
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Aug 31, 2010 14:15
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jstirrell posted:On that note, does anyone have any thoughts on OCZ? They seem to be decently positioned in the SSD market and seem to be focusing on it more and more. From their 10-K: "For the fiscal years ended February 28, 2010 and February 28, 2009, our net sales were $144 million and $156 million, respectively and our net (loss) was $(13.5) million and $(11.7) million, respectively. " So they're losing 13.5 million a year, sales shrank, and they have 4.3 million cash on hand with 10.7 million in debt. That debt's either going to keep going up, or they're going to do a secondary offering if things don't improve soon. That said, they do look cheap based on forward earnings, but I'd rather hold off on them until they've actually achieved another quarter of positive earnings, or dilution happens. Sure, it might cost a little more after a good quarter, but I think it's more likely that something bad will happen than something good in the short term. Long term, they do have a great deal of potential, but I'm not entirely sold that SSD is going to be the standard storage option any time soon. It's much more expensive than a traditional HD for much less storage space right now. Yes, there's a lot of other advantages to it, but I believe we still have a minimum of 3 years before the technology has improved enough that big retailers would use them in a majority of their pre-built computers. They will also face a great deal of competition from companies with much deeper pockets than they have.
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Aug 31, 2010 15:17
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Midget Mafia posted:I think there's at least one other person here interested in BNVI. Craziness going on after hours, first announcing a 1 for 5 reverse split, then waiting a few hours to announce they've received positive guidance from the FDA on Menerba's P3 trial. I have no idea what to expect from this tomorrow.
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Aug 31, 2010 15:45
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destructo posted:HA, I figured something like this would happen which is why I've been out for quite some time (sold out on news of the patent a while back when it spiked to 0.65 or so). No delisting imminent now but they'll definitely dilute again in the near future. Gonna go do some research to see how much cash on hand they've got. I sold out then too, but bought back in when the price settled back down to .42. I still think they have a fantastic drug candidate; it's much safer than alternative treatments based on P2 trials, and the market for it leaves it with the potential to be a billion dollar a year drug. The company's sitting on a market cap of ~40 mil which just seems obscenely low even for a company who's this far away from market. The real question right now is how they intend to fund both of the P3 trials and keep their day to day operations going (they've been burning about 4-5 million per quarter). They stated the first P3 trial should cost them 20 million, and they're sitting on I think ~6 million. There's going to be dilution in some form, and it's going to happen soon; I'm just hoping it involves a partnership with reasonable terms. For someone who isn't already in this, I wouldn't touch it until they've acquired the next round of funding. As for me, unless a partner materializes and boosts the share price up considerably, I'm just going to sit on it until they make it through their first P3 trial. Long term, I want to cut my position in half on the first decent upward movement, and hold the rest all the way through FDA approval/denial which I'm estimating at about 3 years out.
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Aug 31, 2010 18:59
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I suppose you're all still reeling from August. I suppose now we find out when the traders come back from vacation whether they will ratify or overrule what's been going on in the markets lately.
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Sep 1, 2010 21:01
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Always hedge your positions kids... but try and avoid shorting 4500 spy 2 minutes before 10am. 
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Sep 1, 2010 23:26
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wtf dude? Is that play money? I have seen you post a few times about single ~1/2+ million dollar trades. Do you seriously have 500k+ (150k+ if margin) that you just dump of whatever you think is going to be a good play. I'd really like to know why you though a short was a good bet on a gap up day anyway.
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Sep 2, 2010 00:12
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Eh, I'm being slightly disingenuous for shock value. I was in 73 other positions for the day and was net long $500,000 so I had to hedge with roughly that amount of SPY. I entered my hedge around 9:55am. Just lamenting the fact that I didn't wait 10 extra minutes, which could have saved me $4,000 or so. I work on the prop desk at a broker dealer so yes I have lots of buying power.
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Sep 2, 2010 00:23
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Ahhh ok. I was thinking maybe you were the guy with dads life savings to play with. To each his own anyway I guess.
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Sep 2, 2010 00:27
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ChubbyEmoBabe posted:Ahhh ok. I was thinking maybe you were the guy with dads life savings to play with. To each his own anyway I guess. What happened to him? he was hilarious.
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Sep 2, 2010 00:31
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Thoogsby posted:What happened to him? he was hilarious. August happened to him.
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Sep 2, 2010 01:48
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Dr. Jackal posted:August happened to him.  Here's hoping he was just trolling. Then again if the dad was that dumb...well.
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Sep 2, 2010 02:30
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Dr. Jackal posted:August happened to him.  It's ok. gently caress the September effect, let's do this!
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Sep 2, 2010 04:18
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I was up 8% in August, but I also was very specific with my trades. I have less of an idea what September holds than I did about August, so I'll likely spend most of this month on the sidelines as well. Edit: This wasn't supposed to sound all  . I just meant that August was a rough month and it was never easy for me to get a feel for the market. Rather than "trade to trade" I only hit setups that made sense. I spent most of my time on the sidelines wondering why I was too dumb to/scared to take positions.
Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 05:08 on Sep 2, 2010 |
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Sep 2, 2010 04:49
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I haven't been down for a month since January. I haven't exactly forgotten what it was like, but I'm glad to see the end of August. It is the end, isn't it?
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Sep 2, 2010 05:14
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Hobologist posted:It is the end, isn't it? I don't think it is. My read on today was cash on the sidelines looking for any excuse to buy, and surprise ISM numbers were the excuse. This caught out a lot of people who were short but lacked conviction and, boom, a little day-long short squeeze. I think that tomorrow and Friday we'll drift lower (close the week ~1065) on very low volume as people leave for the holiday weekend. After that I have no guesses, other than 1) 1040 will be tested again in the next couple of weeks and 2) being 100% long or 100% short are both awful ideas.
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Sep 2, 2010 05:27
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mik posted:Eh, I'm being slightly disingenuous for shock value. I was in 73 other positions for the day and was net long $500,000 so I had to hedge with roughly that amount of SPY. I entered my hedge around 9:55am. Just lamenting the fact that I didn't wait 10 extra minutes, which could have saved me $4,000 or so. I work on the prop desk at a broker dealer so yes I have lots of buying power. How did you get that job? What sort of experience do you have and what did you present to them in your interview?
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Sep 2, 2010 15:59
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thinking of going into AKAM for the long, I think today's rally for AKAM is partially related to the end of 3PAR buyout. AKAM's business is pretty solid for a long hold in forward P/E and the sector in general. Anyone else have opinions on this? also anyone actually play BKC yesterday's speculation on $3bn tender bid? I didn't 
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Sep 2, 2010 16:08
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Up 30% on ALXA in three weeks, feeling pretty good ATM  edit: and back in at 3.04, woot. destructo fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Sep 2, 2010 |
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Sep 2, 2010 19:01
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