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FMguru posted:Someone crunched the demographic numbers for a bunch of key states in 2016, and here's what they got. Now can we have some hope that Bernie would be just fine in the general
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Jun 23, 2015 20:42
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Mister Macys posted:Now can we have some hope that Bernie would be just fine in the general Those numbers are driven by a response to a historic candidate who brought out many who don't vote period. I'm not sure how many of that same generation are going to show up for someone who's distinguishing feature is "hey, let's be like Norway or something." Obama is not a good standard for Generic D, and certainly not an analog for anyone else running this time.
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Jun 23, 2015 20:51
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Mister Macys posted:Now can we have some hope that Bernie would be just fine in the general Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
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Jun 23, 2015 20:51
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FMguru posted:Someone crunched the demographic numbers for a bunch of key states in 2016, and here's what they got. What's the source?
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Jun 23, 2015 20:52
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How were those states selected? Are those the only 15 that show a dem advantage?
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Jun 23, 2015 20:54
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taqueso posted:How were those states selected? Are those the only 15 that show a dem advantage? They seem to be ones that are commonly seen as swing states, plus a couple others.
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Jun 23, 2015 20:55
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sudo rm -rf posted:What's the source? And yeah, the states shown are the ones where the outcome was close (i.e. swing states)
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Jun 23, 2015 20:57
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FMguru posted:Someone crunched the demographic numbers for a bunch of key states in 2016, and here's what they got. Counterpoint: there are a lot of dumbass Americans who will continue to vote Republican regardless of a perceived demographic advantage
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Jun 23, 2015 20:59
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The Clinton Library is preparing to doxx MIGF.quote:The answer to that long-simmering question could be laid bare soon with the Clinton Presidential Library set to release nearly 20,000 pages of files Emanuel accumulated during his almost six years as a top aide in the Clinton White House. 
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Jun 23, 2015 21:04
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Logikv9 posted:I wouldn't be surprised if Trump offered $25 to everybody that votes for him. Nor would I. I'd be shocked as hell if he paid it though.
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Jun 23, 2015 21:09
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Is there a decent article I can send to people about Trump actually being a terrible businessman? A few people I know think he is great at making money.
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Jun 23, 2015 21:12
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Spacebump posted:Is there a decent article I can send to people about Trump actually being a terrible businessman? A few people I know think he is great at making money. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/pictures/the-many-business-failures-of-donald-trump-20110511
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Jun 23, 2015 21:13
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Spacebump posted:Is there a decent article I can send to people about Trump actually being a terrible businessman? A few people I know think he is great at making money. http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-businesses-that-no-longer-exist-2014-10?op=1
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Jun 23, 2015 21:14
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I can't say much for other states but in PA we just got done having noted Republican assbag Corbett for governor and let me just say that a great many people aren't happy about the way Republicans tend to run things. Yeah you have a massive number of people that are going to vote R even if the candidate is murdering puppies on national television on a daily basis but still...that's not ultimately the crowd that wins elections. The people in the middle that can be swung are what wins elections this state has seen first hand the poo poo Republicans pull when you put them in charge.
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Jun 23, 2015 21:14
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment. I wonder what it says about me; putting hope in a candidate from a country I am not a citizen of, and can't even vote for. 
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Jun 23, 2015 21:21
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De Nomolos posted:Those numbers are driven by a response to a historic candidate who brought out many who don't vote period. I'm not sure how many of that same generation are going to show up for someone who's distinguishing feature is "hey, let's be like Norway or something." This is the thought process behind "Unskewed Polls" and was basically all we heard during Obama's second run "those lazy ni-voters won't want to get off the couch a second time!!" Not that I'm accusing you of anything but pessimism
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Jun 23, 2015 21:32
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Why would anyone be discouraging anyone else from supporting Trump right now?
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Jun 23, 2015 21:49
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Intel&Sebastian posted:Why would anyone be discouraging anyone else from supporting Trump right now? People afraid of a Springtime For Hitler scenario.
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Jun 23, 2015 21:53
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Cythereal posted:People afraid of a Springtime For Hitler scenario.
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Jun 23, 2015 22:28
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lookoutbelow posted:Well, you've seen the type of people who live and work on the NH/Mass border, right? Wait, I bet they're generally from Massachusetts but moved to NH for some reason. New Hampshire basically gets all the Massachusetts wingnuts who are all up in arms because TAXES  , hence New Hampshire's weird political tilt.I imagine the guy who gets the thankless task of censoring all the f-bombs will be busy for a couple weeks.
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Jun 23, 2015 22:41
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:When I worked on the NH/Mass border, all my NH coworkers would talk about how Trump was their candidate. When I asked why, their answers were mainly "he's just the right guy." I'd ask how and I'd never get a response. I have no idea why people love him. He is rich and therefore must be doing something right. This is exactly the logic that several people I know have used in their support of Trump. It doesn't go any deeper than that, which makes sense because you need to have a paper thin understanding of the world to be a Trump supporter.
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Jun 23, 2015 22:52
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Wrap it up, Jeb!ailures, Breitbart has the scoop of the century here:  Go back in time to 2002 and IMPEACH Governor Jeb!, in my opinion.
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Jun 23, 2015 23:01
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Josh Lyman posted:I don't think a majority of people will misinterpret Trump as satire. Wait, is Trump not satire?
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Jun 23, 2015 23:15
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Jeb! did not like the Paleo diet book his sons gave him  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnfQzNqE1r8
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Jun 23, 2015 23:20
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The Republican Party's problem is tribalism. They've had tremendous success in the past selling right-wing economic policies to poor, low-information voters by buttering them up with American exceptionalism, Evangelical identity politics and up-by-your-bootstraps rhetoric. It motivates conservative voters and it wins local elections - plus, everyone in the party makes an awful lot of money from the conservative news/entertainment industry. But when your audience is motivated by religious fundamentalism and ressentiment, you have to stake out increasingly extreme positions to stand out against an increasingly tolerant and pluralistic mainstream society. "Us" keeps getting more exclusive, while "them" starts to encompass the majority of a younger, multiracial, agnostic electorate. Eventually, we'll end up with a white-hot core of ten or twenty outraged "true conservatives" perpetually getting off on their inherent superiority to every other human being of the planet. The logical endpoint of today's Republican party is the Westboro Baptist Church. That's not to say the Republican Party is actually going to die off any time soon. Between gerrymandering, the supreme court, voter suppression etc. they've successfully entrenched themselves in political institutions where they're not accountable to voters, and we're probably in for another decade or two of obstructionism in congress and regressive state-level policies. But this is only a medium-term solution, because while they can block liberal policies they can't really advance their own agenda either, and demographics (not to mention campaign donations) will eventually hit a tipping point where even rigging the system won't be enough for them. Sooner or later, the ruling class is going catch onto this, and they'll roll out a new Millenial-pandering 20th-century conservatism: atheistic, socially permissive techno-libertarianism. In the meantime, the rich would get a much better return on their investments by cozying up to moderate/conservative Democratic candidates. Politics will always favor those who marry the interests of wealthy donors with lowest-common-denominator populism - I don't think it will be advantageous for these politicians to call themselves "Republicans" for much longer.
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Jun 24, 2015 00:16
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Joementum posted:Jeb! did not like the Paleo diet book his sons gave him I was really offended and embarrassed that my sons care about my health. Joementum posted:Wrap it up, Jeb!ailures, Breitbart has the scoop of the century here: Granizo a el jefe! 
Darkman Fanpage fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Jun 24, 2015 |
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Jun 24, 2015 00:23
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Alter Ego posted:New Hampshire basically gets all the Massachusetts wingnuts who are all up in arms because TAXES That, and Northern New Hampshire is infested with libertarian whackadoos who moved there as part of the Free State Project.
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Jun 24, 2015 00:49
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De Nomolos posted:Those numbers are driven by a response to a historic candidate who brought out many who don't vote period. I'm not sure how many of that same generation are going to show up for someone who's distinguishing feature is "hey, let's be like Norway or something." You're loving joking, right?
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Jun 24, 2015 01:04
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ToxicSlurpee posted:The issue though is that even though they're bickering and fighting among themselves whatever candidate comes out ahead (eventually one of them will) is going to get all the R votes by default. Doesn't matter how much the Tea Party screeches about getting given a RINO they're going to vote for him anyway because we need to prevent that old witch from getting into office at all costs. I think you're underestimating how much the primary hurt Romney in the general. It doesn't matter if the party base is going to be motivated to pull the level for Team R based on Team D's candidate. If the Team R candidate has to put a bullet in their general election chances in order to get the Republican nomination then it's a Pyrhhic victory. You had GOP nominees pulling from Ted Kennedy's playbook in attacking Romney, and they were successful in making the conversation about that for a week or two. That's a problem for a party that has to come together after the convention to elect that person. The primary process within a party should be more about differences in implementation or degree rather than fundamental values. Fights over fundamental values, like whether or not Romney's money is morally clean, are the kinds of things that make people stay home. It also legitimizes attacks about those values from the other side and makes the conversation about those divisive topics rather than other things the party can come together over. Now, Romney wasn't a great campaigner so he wasn't able to thread the primary->general needle well at all. It's possible that someone like Rubio or Paul could do a much better job dog whistling during the primary. Though, if the GOP doesn't have a candidate that can do that this cycle then they're going to look like dangerous extremists compared to Hillary's much more pragmatic approach. People remember the Clinton years quite fondly due to the way the economy was going. The GOP lost the messaging war over impeachment. Hillary also picks up an unknown number of southern whites who just couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for a black man. ErIog fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Jun 24, 2015 |
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Jun 24, 2015 01:21
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Indie Rocktopus posted:Sooner or later, the ruling class is going catch onto this, and they'll roll out a new Millenial-pandering 20th-century conservatism: atheistic, socially permissive techno-libertarianism. This is already happening at the grass roots. Look at the strategy guide that Reason used in its early days. The business-right doesn't care where its supporters come from or how they feel about the gays, as long as they ultimately work to undermine government regulations. In Silicon Valley at least, between the libertarian seasteaders and the neoreactionaries like Mencius Moldbug, the Republicans should have no problem farming another generation of zerglings.
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Jun 24, 2015 02:43
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What the gently caress is Jim Gilmore doing on all those polls. His governorship was a disaster basically from day 1 and the motherfucker last ran for something six years ago and lost like he was getting paid to throw it. His legacy is basically handing Mark Warner a pile of state government problems to solve.
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Jun 24, 2015 03:04
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TheScott2K posted:What the gently caress is Jim Gilmore doing on all those polls. His governorship was a disaster basically from day 1 and the motherfucker last ran for something six years ago and lost like he was getting paid to throw it. His legacy is basically handing Mark Warner a pile of state government problems to solve. He's shown up for events in New Hampshire and said he's thinking of running. His role in the race appears to be to make George Pataki seem like a formidable candidate.
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Jun 24, 2015 03:07
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Mister Macys posted:I wonder what it says about me; putting hope in a candidate from a country I am not a citizen of, and can't even vote for. Better off than most actually because you at least have an excuse to not know that a president alone can't inact literally any of Bernie's promises and he's not exactly bringing in a socialist wave behind him.
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Jun 24, 2015 03:31
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Better off than most actually because you at least have an excuse to not know that a president alone can't inact literally any of Bernie's promises and he's not exactly bringing in a socialist wave behind him. Oh, I already know that. I've been following these threads since the Republicans took back Congress.  I guess it's just that, as much as I loved bashing America in the Bush era, I really want the best for your country. It's such a cool place when it's working right. 
Mister Facetious fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Jun 24, 2015 |
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Jun 24, 2015 03:35
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Mister Macys posted:Oh, I already know that. I've been following these threads since the Republicans took back Congress. Later this year, Harper is going to form another government. Next year, another Bush will be narrowly elected to the presidency. You know in your heart these things are true.
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Jun 24, 2015 03:54
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ErIog posted:Now, Romney wasn't a great campaigner so he wasn't able to thread the primary->general needle well at all. It's possible that someone like Rubio or Paul could do a much better job dog whistling during the primary. Though, if the GOP doesn't have a candidate that can do that this cycle then they're going to look like dangerous extremists compared to Hillary's much more pragmatic approach. At this point the GOP itself looks like the dangerous extremist. The Tea Party was good for short term gains but I think it might have utterly torpedoed the GOP's chance at winning the presidency.
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Jun 24, 2015 03:55
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Wheeee posted:Later this year, Harper is going to form another government. I have hope; Alberta's conservative hegemony was crushed, and Trudeau will likely win on name recognition alone (sadly- I'm an NDP guy).
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Jun 24, 2015 04:13
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Mister Macys posted:I have hope; Alberta's conservative hegemony was crushed, and Trudeau will likely win on name recognition alone (sadly- I'm an NDP guy). Come to mention it, Trudeau feels a lot like Bush. They have famous names and look like the natural next person in line to run their countries, but they're making unforced gaffes and proving to be not quite as good at politics as they'd hoped.
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Jun 24, 2015 04:26
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Chamale posted:Come to mention it, Trudeau feels a lot like Bush. They have famous names and look like the natural next person in line to run their countries, but they're making unforced gaffes and proving to be not quite as good at politics as they'd hoped. Will probably be a pro-corporatist, Kathleen Wynne-esque, Bay Street fellating piece of poo poo.
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Jun 24, 2015 04:35
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I saw Donald Trump give the "small thumbs up" on the wolf blitzer channel at the bar. Holds his hand out, looks like he is giving a full thumbs up because he is waving to the crowd, not giving a speech, and his thumb is pressed forward and only the top knuckle of his thumb, like half an inch of thumb is actually going up. Why would he do that? He sat down and thought about how he had seen that on TV. Basically when politicians like Bill Clinton instinctually wanted to point their angry index finger somewhere, Bill Clinton and many others would just do the thumb thing. So Donald viewed video footage of their greatest hits and reproduced them, mistaking the passionate thumb for some kind of new version of the classic "thumbs up" that he didn't bother to fully understand. Am I wrong? Is there video footage of other complete idiots or respectable people acting like that is the proper way to wave. Like to give a full thumbs up is a message, to give the little thumb up, that is not what you do when you are waving to a cheering crowd. It's what people do when they are passionately giving a speech. Donald just waves his hand around with the little thumb up just having no idea why he is doing it, having no idea why the little thumb up exists. He just saw it on video of other presidents. He is the hero America deserves.
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