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FR (a REIT mentioned here previously) was up almost 8% today. I dont see any news from today and the sector as a whole didnt perform especially well. Its not that I am specifically curious about this stock today, but how would I be able to find out why such a big price move happens? I see this regularly, especially with smaller securities, where there is a big move but none of the major sites list any news for that day.
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Sep 11, 2010 06:44
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Nifty posted:FR (a REIT mentioned here previously) was up almost 8% today. I dont see any news from today and the sector as a whole didnt perform especially well. Its not that I am specifically curious about this stock today, but how would I be able to find out why such a big price move happens? I see this regularly, especially with smaller securities, where there is a big move but none of the major sites list any news for that day. Zero Hedge says: quote:In the monthly CMBS Market Trends update from Fitch we read that the hotel delinquency rate has just passed the psychological 20% delinquency threshold for the first time. As of August, 20.80% of all hotel-backed loans is in some stage of delinquency (up from 18.64% in July): that means that one in five (and rising) hotel-backed loans will likely never be repaid and proceed to liquidation. These and such are the ways, when underlying assets refuse to generate enough cash flow to satisfy interest requirements, let along create equity value... Which should explain why publicly-traded REITs are trading at near record highs.
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Sep 11, 2010 16:26
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I actually had already read that article, but it did not make much sense to me. To me, the last sentence sounded sarcastic or something. How does high delinquency rates and insufficient cash flow mean REITs should be trading higher?
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Sep 11, 2010 19:47
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I think we might break out of the 1040-1130 trading range this time. The market managed to reach the upper end of the range with financials barely participating and tech declining. When those two sectors catch up, we could very well break 1130. At the citi conference last week AMAT and CREE both reiterated their growth targets, they're not seeing this supposed slow down in semis at all. AMAT actually called the recent sell off on tech "paranoid". They are so beaten down atm they could be a very good bet if you're willing to sit through the short term volatility. Just keep in mind that oct is traditionally the weakest month for semis and apr is traditionally the strongest month. Also if we look at the market historically, there has only once been a bull market that only lasted one year, which was during the great depression. Nifty posted:I actually had already read that article, but it did not make much sense to me. To me, the last sentence sounded sarcastic or something. How does high delinquency rates and insufficient cash flow mean REITs should be trading higher? Could be contrarians betting it up? Daily volume on FR is only a million shares... Gamesguy fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Sep 11, 2010 |
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Sep 11, 2010 22:46
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Nifty posted:I actually had already read that article, but it did not make much sense to me. To me, the last sentence sounded sarcastic or something. How does high delinquency rates and insufficient cash flow mean REITs should be trading higher? I feel the same way, furthermore unless FR is gonna pull something special, its financials don't look healthy too. I wonder why its up 8%.
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Sep 12, 2010 16:06
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What websites do you guys get your company news info from? I've just been using yahoo finance, but it seems to miss a fair amount of stuff.
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Sep 12, 2010 19:15
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dlink posted:I feel the same way, furthermore unless FR is gonna pull something special, its financials don't look healthy too. I wonder why its up 8%. FR is an industrial properties REIT, and data from the manufacturing sector has been very strong, that could be the reason why it's up. Hotel delinquency rates aren't too relevant to FR.
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Sep 12, 2010 23:28
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Nifty posted:FR (a REIT mentioned here previously) was up almost 8% today. I dont see any news from today and the sector as a whole didnt perform especially well. Its not that I am specifically curious about this stock today, but how would I be able to find out why such a big price move happens? I see this regularly, especially with smaller securities, where there is a big move but none of the major sites list any news for that day. I'll say it again. Be very careful when buying FR. It is definitely high risk, high reward potential and it is volatile enough that you can make some money if you're into trading, but if some serious bad news hits that is particularly in contrast to the rest of the Industrial REITs you can rest assured this thing is going to get hit bad. FR is a hard stock to stomach and REITs in general aren't familiar to a large majority of investors. Even google news seems to not "understand" the differences between industrial real estate companies and other commercial developers (Hotel, Warehouse/Industrial, Medical, Laboratory, Bio-Tech, Educational/Institutional, Office, etc.). Right now the whole Industrial property market is sort of crappy, but recovering and a good rule of thumb is that commercial real estate lags the general market by a 9-15 months. Refer back to a couple of my posts in this thread regarding it and as always do your own research. To be honest it's just as likely to drop to $4.30 tomorrow as it is to go to $5.20 or higher. Edit: I'm keeping the caution pretty high (trading in and out rather than holding) until I see healthy absorption and occupancy in their quarterly reports and ideally some mention of dividends being brought back for common shares at which point I can't imagine the price staying low anymore. I'm pretty confident in the company itself, but a good company doesn't mean much of poo poo if the economy at large and the market dries it out. Jabbu fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Sep 13, 2010 |
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Sep 13, 2010 02:07
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Does anyone have any preferences for good yielding dividend stocks that aren't financial? I was thinking about adding some more to my portfolio.
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Sep 13, 2010 06:06
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ReD_XIII posted:Does anyone have any preferences for good yielding dividend stocks that aren't financial? I was thinking about adding some more to my portfolio. Lots of choices these days telecoms, JNJ, Utilities (SO, etc), there is alot out there.
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Sep 13, 2010 06:40
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Free Gucci Mane posted:What websites do you guys get your company news info from? I've just been using yahoo finance, but it seems to miss a fair amount of stuff. I'd like to echo this, and ask about software - anything off the shelf you guys are using? Googling for information it too packed with useless blogs and crappy advice to find anything impartial.
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Sep 13, 2010 13:57
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If we close above 1117 I'm buying an assload of OOM calls on SPY or FAS.
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Sep 13, 2010 14:40
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Josh Lyman posted:If we close above 1117 I'm buying an assload of OOM calls on SPY or FAS. Indeed, I think this could be the rally to get us out of the range.
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Sep 13, 2010 16:16
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What is causing all the MasterCard (MA) hate? It has been destroyed in the last few months.
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Sep 13, 2010 17:02
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I feel really drat dumb and might as well document it here. Was going to increase my position in GE by 1,000 shares below $15 ($14.50-$14.90 range), but for whatever greedy reason I thought I could get it below $14 this time around. Seems my greed cost me, at least in the short term. If I could have done things differently, I would have bought around 500 at my original price, then bought another 500 if it went lower. I didn't buy nearly as much as I would have liked in the August dip.
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Sep 13, 2010 17:41
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Gamesguy posted:Indeed, I think this could be the rally to get us out of the range. IWM broke through the 200 MA so I'm inclined to believe this will take us up a ways more, also the weekly stochastic on IWM shows there's still a ways to go. 1130.20 is a pretty big target. If IWM can power SPY past 113.2 then this might be a longer rally.
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Sep 13, 2010 18:02
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If it wasn't for the occasional day like today I'd probably lose interest. And I might be moved to sell Windstream and Qwest if they go much higher.
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Sep 13, 2010 21:24
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Josh Lyman posted:If we close above 1117 I'm buying an assload of OOM calls on SPY or FAS. games on. $SPX calls for 1130!
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Sep 13, 2010 21:39
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Dr. Jackal posted:games on. $SPX calls for 1130! Tomorrow morning though.
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Sep 13, 2010 22:50
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Jabbu posted:I feel really drat dumb and might as well document it here. Was going to increase my position in GE by 1,000 shares below $15 ($14.50-$14.90 range), but for whatever greedy reason I thought I could get it below $14 this time around. Seems my greed cost me, at least in the short term. If I could have done things differently, I would have bought around 500 at my original price, then bought another 500 if it went lower. I didn't buy nearly as much as I would have liked in the August dip. GE is my largest single holding at ~400 shares and there books make me nervous. I don't have the stomach to hold more than that
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Sep 14, 2010 02:42
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ARNA ruined my month. If anyone else is in the same boat, you are not alone.
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Sep 14, 2010 15:29
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Time for that GDX play I was waiting for! 50 at 54.74 this morning, and when the 15 minute chart comes back down on the stochastics, i'm pushing this one hard!  Click here for the full 805x526 image. Hopefully this one pulls an FCX and runs up for 6 straight days. I profit took way too early on FCX. But it is profits, so hey. edit: in fact im going to pull the trigger on shorting medtronic now too. It's daily stochastic is right on the precipice of turning over, and it has been so weak as hell lately. 25 shares at 33.10, It touched 30.80 last week, let's see if we can get back to that support. ToiletLaw fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Sep 14, 2010 |
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Sep 14, 2010 15:36
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Foma posted:GE is my largest single holding at ~400 shares and there books make me nervous. I don't have the stomach to hold more than that GE had a breakout point failure around late July at 16.57 or so. It's daily is maxed out, but the weekly shows it could go higher in the next couple of weeks. However this run up to resistance has probably 15-20% less volume which makes it breaking out above 16.57 even more unlikely. I'll wager it starts to come back down next week.
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Sep 14, 2010 15:45
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poopfart posted:ARNA ruined my month. If anyone else is in the same boat, you are not alone. This is what I get for going against numerous analyst predictions. I went against analysts on VVUS, and not only shorted it, but shorted it with 100% of my margin funds. I made a killing there. Too bad I didn't listen up and think the same about ARNA. The only saving grace now is the possible SVNT ruling today, if indeed the FDA rules on it rather than delays it like they have been doing to everything recently. Welp, whats a goon to do?
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Sep 14, 2010 15:58
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poopfart posted:This is what I get for going against numerous analyst predictions. I went against analysts on VVUS, and not only shorted it, but shorted it with 100% of my margin funds. I made a killing there. Too bad I didn't listen up and think the same about ARNA. The only saving grace now is the possible SVNT ruling today, if indeed the FDA rules on it rather than delays it like they have been doing to everything recently. Welp, whats a goon to do? Betting on biotech based on FDA rulings is essentially gambling tbh.
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Sep 14, 2010 21:27
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It looks like RIMM has been trading flat approaching Thurday's earnings. I'm thinking there will be significant price action whatever the results may be. Would a 45 Oct 10 straddle be a smart move going into earnings?
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Sep 14, 2010 23:09
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Gamesguy posted:Betting on biotech based on FDA rulings is essentially gambling tbh. And my reposition, fully invested with margin, in SVNT just repayed me back for my bad day HAHAHAHAHAHA gently caress YOU WALL STREET
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Sep 14, 2010 23:19
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Gamesguy posted:Betting on biotech based on FDA rulings is essentially gambling tbh. But really, I know. I likes it though
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Sep 14, 2010 23:20
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poopfart posted:This is what I get for going against numerous analyst predictions. I went against analysts on VVUS, and not only shorted it, but shorted it with 100% of my margin funds. I made a killing there. Too bad I didn't listen up and think the same about ARNA. The only saving grace now is the possible SVNT ruling today, if indeed the FDA rules on it rather than delays it like they have been doing to everything recently. Welp, whats a goon to do?
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Sep 14, 2010 23:20
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destructo posted:SVNT approved, curious why you didn't pull out of ARNA after the 100% run? Honestly I just bought in to let the stock run up a bit prior to FDA review and get out before it. DID NOT EXPECT A SURPRISE REPORT ABOUT THE loving TUMORS AND poo poo
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Sep 14, 2010 23:21
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Eco RI posted:It looks like RIMM has been trading flat approaching Thurday's earnings. I'm thinking there will be significant price action whatever the results may be. Would a 45 Oct 10 straddle be a smart move going into earnings?
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Sep 15, 2010 00:59
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Josh Lyman posted:I'm thinking the same thing. My thinking is that since it's been trading flat on some comparatively low volume for over a week, the big money doesn't know what the gently caress is about to happen. Not to mention analyst estimates are anywhere from $1.23 to $1.45/share. I think it's a sure bet on at least some volatility.
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Sep 15, 2010 18:21
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Eco RI posted:My thinking is that since it's been trading flat on some comparatively low volume for over a week, the big money doesn't know what the gently caress is about to happen. Not to mention analyst estimates are anywhere from $1.23 to $1.45/share. I think it's a sure bet on at least some volatility.
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Sep 15, 2010 18:23
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Josh Lyman posted:Passed on the straddle, went with a volatility spread. Probably a good move. I've never been clear how this is different from a strangle (if it is different at all).
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Sep 15, 2010 18:34
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Eco RI posted:Probably a good move. I've never been clear how this is different from a strangle (if it is different at all). With a straddle you don't close out the OOM end of the spread once the equity in question makes a move, with a volatility spread you do. But initially a volatility spread has the same exact setup as a long straddle. And I constructed one on rimm as well.
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Sep 15, 2010 21:33
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Gamesguy posted:With a straddle you don't close out the OOM end of the spread once the equity in question makes a move, with a volatility spread you do. But initially a volatility spread has the same exact setup as a long straddle. Thanks for this. So, by definition, when is the right time to close the OOM option in a straddle? Also, at what point(s) do you guys intend to take profits on this move? e: do you guys use http://www.optionslam.com/index.html ? This seems pretty drat handy if you're doing a considerable amount of trading on volatility. Eco RI fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Sep 15, 2010 |
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Sep 15, 2010 21:45
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Gamesguy posted:With a straddle you don't close out the OOM end of the spread once the equity in question makes a move, with a volatility spread you do. But initially a volatility spread has the same exact setup as a long straddle. It doesn't have anything to do with trade management, a vol spread is simply buying puts and calls to get yourself delta-neutral. In theory that will be a straddle, in practice it's often a strangle.
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Sep 15, 2010 22:45
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Plastic Jesus posted:It doesn't have anything to do with trade management, a vol spread is simply buying puts and calls to get yourself delta-neutral. In theory that will be a straddle, in practice it's often a strangle.
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Sep 15, 2010 23:09
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Dr. Jackal posted:games on. $SPX calls for 1130! This is looking highly unlikely. on another note, CSCO woo!
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Sep 16, 2010 00:16
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Can anyone recommend me some resources for reviewing news by sector? Like say I wanted to get a feed of news about companies in the services sector.
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Sep 16, 2010 00:37
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