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Amp
Sep 10, 2010

:11tea::bubblewoop::agesilaus::megaman::yoshi::squawk::supaburn::iit::spooky::axe::honked::shroom::smugdog::sg::pkmnwhy::parrot::screamy::tubular::corsair::sanix::yeeclaw::hayter::flip::redflag:

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Johnny Five Aces decides the fate of America.


When the object enters the timestream, time begins to correct itself. Let me use this example: Imagine four delegates on the edge of a cliff. Say a direct copy of the delegate nearest the cliff is sent to the back of the line of delegates and takes the place of the first ball. The formerly first delegate becomes the second, the second becomes the third, and the fourth falls off the cliff.

Time works the same way

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Bad Munki
Nov 4, 2008

We're all mad here.


Raskolnikov38 posted:

earlier in the document they’re told to shuffle it 5 times before dealing at least

Countdown to footage of someone spreading the cards around on the table to "shuffle" like a god drat toddler.

Star Phlatulence
Jan 14, 2006

by Cyrano4747
Bleak Gremlin

Paladinus posted:

Klobuchar speaks like she's always on the verge of crying, and I never can tell if it's intentional or not. Sometimes she starts a sentence with a smile, but by the end she's all sobbing again, no matter what she's talking about.

it's genuine, klob is tamping down a tsunami of rage for having to share the debate stage with useless morons like Pete and Beto and THESE FUCKIN LIBS

pancake rabbit
Feb 21, 2011




https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/1226871963408203776

big

amy

energy

a fatguy baldspot
Aug 29, 2018

can i ask what’s up with the hello somebody thing

bawk
Mar 31, 2013

Bad Munki posted:

Countdown to footage of someone spreading the cards around on the table to "shuffle" like a god drat toddler.

They'll use a casino shuffler and it will turn out that all the shufflers have been weighted to give the cards that Pete and klob need, ultimately resulting in somebody having their kneecaps busted because they figured out the system and gamed a table at the casino who donated the shuffler

pigz
Jul 12, 2004

Nearly as overlooked as Joe Mauer

Bad Munki posted:

Countdown to footage of someone spreading the cards around on the table to "shuffle" like a god drat toddler.

This is really important. HOW someone shuffles matters. You need to riffle shuffle exclusively. Pretty much any other method takes an astronomical number of shuffles to make things random, or simply cannot ever.

Bottom line for these sort of tiebreakers IMO is the more that has to be done by volunteers t he more likely it's to be done in error. And that has everything to do wiht the severe lack of training people get in these tasks. AS I pointed out these tie breakers are excessively rare in elections that establishment candidates have a good chance of winning the nomination; so of course the parties don't spend tons of money training a complex procedure that is typically not used. Of course in the cases when it is (close elections) it is supremely important.

Pair all that with the fact that more dollars spend training volunteers is less money you can give to your friends for 'apps' and you get what we have. A total clusterfuck.

pigz has issued a correction as of 17:30 on Feb 10, 2020

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005


That owns lol

Bearstrong
Apr 11, 2014

Satan Lives


7 shuffles is for playing games where cards are drawn from the deck in order, not picked.

5 shuffles is fine and the problem isn't "they're not being told to shuffle enough" but "why in the gently caress would you use a deck of cards, the thing we constantly use for magic tricks because of how easy it is to secretly manipulate"

Squizzle
Apr 24, 2008




pigz posted:

To see just how bad they want to gently caress Bernie we can see how many draws there are tonight.

There have only been like 2 card draws in the last like couple primaries. One that Hillary won over Bernie (Ace of Spades vs Six clubs), and one Obama won over Hillary (no details in the article i saw).

Also the suits are ranked with the typical french class rankings (Spades - Royalty, Hearts - Religion, Diamonds - Merchant, Clubs - Workers), pretty fitting in the Hillary and Bernie case. I do think you can opt to not rank suits and just redraw, but you have to decide that before hand.

the hillary person drawing literally the highest possible card is good fodder for ratfuck speculation imo

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008


that has to be a question during the hiring process for her campaign

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

How hard is it to just do a coin flip and require the coin to land on the ground instead of some sneaky bastard's hand

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

pigz posted:

To see just how bad they want to gently caress Bernie we can see how many draws there are tonight.

The NV caucus isn't until the 22nd and the contest tonight isn't a caucus. I'm about to post a thread to clarify this.

Drunkboxer
Jun 30, 2007

Bearstrong posted:

7 shuffles is for playing games where cards are drawn from the deck in order, not picked.

5 shuffles is fine and the problem isn't "they're not being told to shuffle enough" but "why in the gently caress would you use a deck of cards, the thing we constantly use for magic tricks because of how easy it is to secretly manipulate"

it’s called “democracy”, read a book commie

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Pollyanna posted:

s2g if the dnc ratfucks bernie out of an nh win I am done with the dems

they don’t have our best interests in mind if they ratfuck him again

The Iowa ratfuck was also a NH ratfuck.

The next 'overt' ratfuck will be in Nevada. But the way things are going, who knows if that will work. I doubt Pete got the juice to carry that state.

Rubellavator
Aug 16, 2007

Any new Iowa stuff? I know people are sick of it but i dont want to forget about all the minorities who got hosed over

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Rubellavator posted:

Any new Iowa stuff? I know people are sick of it but i dont want to forget about all the minorities who got hosed over

The latest rumor is that Bernie is going to officially request a limited recanvas, which needs to be done by noon today. Nothing official as far as I've seen so far though.

pigz
Jul 12, 2004

Nearly as overlooked as Joe Mauer

Bearstrong posted:

7 shuffles is for playing games where cards are drawn from the deck in order, not picked.

5 shuffles is fine and the problem isn't "they're not being told to shuffle enough" but "why in the gently caress would you use a deck of cards, the thing we constantly use for magic tricks because of how easy it is to secretly manipulate"

You are 100% right about this is not the way to be doing this for numerous reasons.

Five is definitely not fine, especially if you are drawing cards in order. It would be very easy to transpose two cards to the top in the reverse order they are in and give the first person say a King of spade and the second an Ace of spade.

In fact, in combinatorics and probability theory, the fact that 7 shuffles is sufficiently random and 5 and 6 are significantly much worse is a well known 'surprising' results. That and the birthday paradox are commonly taught at the start of these classes to get people to break with their ideas of what random is and how probability is really not at all intuitive.


Look at the Hilary Bernie situation. The cards in a factory deck are when face down are ordered from Two to Ace with the suits going Clubs, Diamonds, Hearts, Spades. Hillary chose an ace of spade a card from the absolute bottom of a factory deck, and Bernie chose a six of club,. a card that starts on the top just five cards from the top (when face down). I'm not saying the deck wasn't shuffled right, but if they weren't this is exactly the kind of thing you would see. And of course if they were sufficiently random you could see this result too, just not often.

Random people are just bad at shuffling, and i just dont' think these people are getting sufficient training to do it.

edit: Yeah misspoke about tonight and the cards. I can't do letters well. So on the 22 we can worry more about them using cards to gently caress Bernie.As for NH we can watch them try something else entirely.

pigz has issued a correction as of 17:46 on Feb 10, 2020

mad.radhu
Jan 8, 2006




Fun Shoe

Rubellavator posted:

Any new Iowa stuff? I know people are sick of it but i dont want to forget about all the minorities who got hosed over

the NYT has a whole article about how the Iowa caucus has basically been fraudulent for the last 100 years so

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Montasque posted:

The next 'overt' ratfuck will be in Nevada. But the way things are going, who knows if that will work. I doubt Pete got the juice to carry that state.

It's hard to say because there haven't been any Nevada polls in like a month. Has there been a Pete surge there? Is the Klobucharge taking Nevada? Did Biden's collapse feed Bernie? Who knows!

One other question is whether the goal of the ratfucking is for Pete to win the nomination outright, or whether the goal is just to hinder Bernie enough to cause a contested convention. If it's the first, that's probably going to end up needing to be a lot more overt; if it's the second, though, it can be done a bit more "quietly" by boosting whoever's polling closest to Bernie in any given state and shaving votes away from Bernie just enough that he doesn't end up with 1990 pledged delegates by the convention.

If anything's going to actually stop it, it'll be the competing egos of all the moderates fighting it out right around the viability threshold, preventing anyone from surging past Bernie because they're all fighting over the same general group of voters.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Bearstrong posted:

7 shuffles is for playing games where cards are drawn from the deck in order, not picked.

5 shuffles is fine and the problem isn't "they're not being told to shuffle enough" but "why in the gently caress would you use a deck of cards, the thing we constantly use for magic tricks because of how easy it is to secretly manipulate"

Nevada is known for its casinos so using cards is a fun bit of home-state themeing. Love making being on-brand more important than confidence in the results

Squizzle
Apr 24, 2008




BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Nevada is known for its casinos so using cards is a fun bit of home-state themeing. Love making being on-brand more important than confidence in the results

its not lovemaking

its ratfucking

Heath
Apr 30, 2008

🍂🎃🏞️💦
Rat gently caressing

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Nevada is known for its casinos so using cards is a fun bit of home-state themeing. Love making being on-brand more important than confidence in the results

they should just have the candidates themselves play poker against one another to decide the results

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord
Lmao casinos have already figured out how to shuffle cards. Just get one of the dealers from the hospitality union to do it.

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Harrow posted:

It's hard to say because there haven't been any Nevada polls in like a month. Has there been a Pete surge there? Is the Klobucharge taking Nevada? Did Biden's collapse feed Bernie? Who knows!

One other question is whether the goal of the ratfucking is for Pete to win the nomination outright, or whether the goal is just to hinder Bernie enough to cause a contested convention. If it's the first, that's probably going to end up needing to be a lot more overt; if it's the second, though, it can be done a bit more "quietly" by boosting whoever's polling closest to Bernie in any given state and shaving votes away from Bernie just enough that he doesn't end up with 1990 pledged delegates by the convention.

If anything's going to actually stop it, it'll be the competing egos of all the moderates fighting it out right around the viability threshold, preventing anyone from surging past Bernie because they're all fighting over the same general group of voters.

IF there is a strategy(there is) I believe it would be to boost whoever has the best shot of beating Bernie in any particular state, denying him the delegates he needs to win clean in the first round of the convention. Not sure who that person is in Nevada(doubt its Pete).

The DNC aren't exactly Sun Tzu Machiavelli, they're more wile e. coyote* so all their best-laid plans will most likely blow up in their faces.

*EDITED

Montasque has issued a correction as of 18:02 on Feb 10, 2020

taqueso
Mar 8, 2004


:911:
:wookie: :thermidor: :wookie:
:dehumanize:

:pirate::hf::tinfoil:

Nothus posted:

Lmao casinos have already figured out how to shuffle cards. Just get one of the dealers from the hospitality union to do it.

That's what I was thinking, get the 'Dealer of the Year' to do it or something that you can get a casino tie-in off of.

Rogue Copter Pilot
Apr 12, 2005

a dead whale or a stove boat

Montasque posted:

IF there is a strategy(there is) I believe it would be to boost whoever has the best shot of beating Bernie in any particular state, denying him the delegates he needs to win clean in the first round of the convention. Not sure who that person is in Nevada(doubt its Pete).

The DNC aren't exactly Sun Tzu Machiavelli, they're more Roadrunner, so all their best-laid plans will most likely blow up in their faces.

bernie is the road runner

the dnc is wile e. coyote

Drinkfist
Aug 2, 2005



Raskolnikov38 posted:

earlier in the document they’re told to shuffle it 5 times before dealing at least

So then we just make sure no one doing that is banned from any casinos.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Harrow posted:

It's hard to say because there haven't been any Nevada polls in like a month. Has there been a Pete surge there? Is the Klobucharge taking Nevada? Did Biden's collapse feed Bernie? Who knows!

One other question is whether the goal of the ratfucking is for Pete to win the nomination outright, or whether the goal is just to hinder Bernie enough to cause a contested convention. If it's the first, that's probably going to end up needing to be a lot more overt; if it's the second, though, it can be done a bit more "quietly" by boosting whoever's polling closest to Bernie in any given state and shaving votes away from Bernie just enough that he doesn't end up with 1990 pledged delegates by the convention.

If anything's going to actually stop it, it'll be the competing egos of all the moderates fighting it out right around the viability threshold, preventing anyone from surging past Bernie because they're all fighting over the same general group of voters.

No one really knows what is happening in Nevada. It's a hard state to poll in general elections, let alone primaries, and after what happened in Iowa, just lol at trying to get a finger on the pulse of Nevada.

As for the poo poo about the rat getting a push, I think right now they're in wait and see mode. As stupid and incompetent as the blob is, absolutely no one thinks he can win unless he expands his base outside of non-white voters. If he somehow shows a turnaround in South Carolina, he'll probably get the full push, otherwise they'll pick whichever non-Bernie candidate does best there and push them instead.

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Drinkfist posted:

So then we just make sure no one doing that is banned from any casinos.

Dustin Hoffman inexplicably appointed official card picker

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Azathoth posted:

If he somehow shows a turnaround in South Carolina, he'll probably get the full push, otherwise they'll pick whichever non-Bernie candidate does best there and push them instead.

looking forward to steyermentum

C-SPAN Caller
Apr 21, 2010



Can we got back to pet rat chat instead of card game chat

Clearly in Wisconsin they should have to roll character sheets in dnd and then do a battle royale

Also instead of high draw make the nevada candidates play modern yugioh against each other

YaketySass
Jan 15, 2019

Blind Idiot Dog
I'm probably being naive about the actual purpose of this poo poo, but couldn't they just have two representatives from their respective team each write a random number on a sheet of paper, then add the results and check if the sum is odd or even (or a similar system if there's more than two candidates involved)?

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Rogue Copter Pilot posted:

bernie is the road runner

the dnc is wile e. coyote

Yeah I got my classic characters confused.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Harrow posted:

looking forward to steyermentum

im personally looking forward to bloombergamania running wild all over the electorate

a few DRUNK BONERS
Mar 25, 2016

YaketySass posted:

I'm probably being naive about the actual purpose of this poo poo, but couldn't they just have two representatives from their respective team each write a random number on a sheet of paper, then add the results and check if the sum is odd or even (or a similar system if there's more than two candidates involved)?

"choosing something randomly in a way that both parties agree is fair" is a classic problem in computer science with many solutions, but the ratfucking is the point

Bearstrong
Apr 11, 2014

Satan Lives


Rereading the Nevada card stuff, do they actually draw the card from the top instead of picking from the deck? I read it originally as like "we shuffle a deck a bunch, then pass it around and people pick a card" not "we shuffle a bunch and then just deal a card to each". My first point is obviously stupid and wrong if they're just dealing off the top and that only makes things way easier to manipulate with shuffles lmfao.

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unmeidestiny
Sep 25, 2009

I think Bernie will win NH cleanly, but Klob will score the upset against Butt and that will be the media narrative they used to drown out the Bernie win

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